转移农民工意外伤害风险推动保险业全面发展

我国农村人口多,农业劳动力人均支配的土地资源少,有14个省区人均耕地低于1亩。按照最保守的估计,我国农业劳动力剩余数至少达2亿多人。相对如此众多的劳动力生产要素配置比例,耕地稀缺的问题非常突出。更糟糕的是,由于生态环境恶化和非农占地,耕地每年以几     

浅谈再保险合同的风险转移测试

自上世纪90年代．国际再保险业的产品创新不断加强，为了满足直保公司不断出现的新的多样化的再保险需求．一些新型的风险转移与再保险产品层出不穷。     

个人住房抵押贷款的风险转移机制国家信担保

从个人住房抵押贷款的风险转移机制这一角度出发,从商业保险套司对个人住房托押贷款提供的保证保险内容入手,分析了商业保险公司暂时停办此类保证保险的原因是其包含了社会保险的内容。而社会保险是政府行为,应由国家提供信用担保。文章以美国为例说明个人住房抵押贷款顺利发放,是因为在个人住房抵押贷款一、二级市场皆有国家信用的参与。要想使我国个人住房托押贷款象美国那样发达,在个人住房托押贷款的一、二级市场也必须有国家信用的全面参与。     

中小企业金融担保风险转移机制的系统性建构研究

从风险转移视角构建了中小企业金融担保风险转移机制,并从再担保机制、可选择性风险转移（A.R.T.）保险机制、反担保机制等层面构建了中小企业金融担保风险转移机制。该研究成果对于提升我国中小企业金融担保业的风险管控功能,实现我国中小企业金融担保业的可持续发展,提供重要的理论指导与决策参考。     

银保协作、ART保险与银行信用风险转移

在分析银保协作与可选择性风险转移(Alternativ Risk Transfer,即 ART)保险的内在逻辑基础上,进一步分析 ART 保险实现银行信用风险转移的内在机理,并以此为依据设计银保信贷系统的 ART 保险机制。结果表明,ART 保险可以有效分担银保信贷系统的信用风险,降低银保信贷系统的风险运营成本,提升银保信贷系统的运营效率,并实现商业银行信用风险转移目标。可见,推行银保协作型信贷模式,对于治理信贷配给,从而提升信贷市场效率具有重要意义。     

自然灾害风险转移研究

如何减少自然灾害对人类生命、财产、社会功能和生态环境等各方面造成的巨大损失,是人类社会面临的共同挑战。作为风险管理的重要技术之一,风险转移技术可以分为控制型和融资型两类。保险是其中一种重要的融资型风险转移技术,可以适用于自然灾害风险转移。自然灾害风险可以保险方式转移的前提是其必须满足技术、经济与社会三大条件,即符合保险精算原则、供求双方愿意交易和法律政策允许。具体的自然灾害风险转移方式包括保险转移方式、再保险转移方式和ART方式。     

Fixed-Rate Endowment Mortgage and Mortgage Indemnity Valuation

We use a contingent claims framework for valuing the the default and prepayment embedded options in certain British fixed-rate endowment mortgages, with a (capped) mortgage indemnity guarantee (MIG). This methodology provides a template for the borrower, lender, and insurer to compare mortgage terms, including the fairness of contract rates, arrangement fees, prepayment penalties, any MIG premiums required, and co-insurance exposure. With empirical inputs, this model may eventually be useful as a mark-to-value proxy for all parties, as expected parameters change (especially interest rate and house price levels, and expected future volatilities), for purposes of determining valued added accounting, appropriate reserves, and indeed for setting premiums and business drivers. Fixed-rate endowment mortgages differ from fixed-rate repayment mortgages primarily because, in the event of early termination, the amount owed by the borrower is a function of the evolution of the term structure of interest rates, whereas for a repayment mortgage it is pre-determined. We compare endownment and repayment mortgages for different levels of loan-to-value ratios, interest rate and house price volatilities.     

固定利率住房抵押贷款违约行为及其定价研究

固定利率住房抵押贷款的信用风险主要是违约风险,基于理性期权的定价模型往往会低估借款人的违约概率.通过分析违约成本及非理性违约因素,可以确定借款人违约时贷款机构收回的现金流,得到固定利率住房抵押贷款定价的期望值模型,并得出模型的求解方法.     

Mortgage defaults

A life-cycle model is developed in which households face income and house-price risk and buy houses with mortgages. This model, which accounts for key features in U.S. data, is used as a laboratory for prudential policy. Recourse mortgages increase the cost of default but also lower equity and increase payments. The effect on default is nonmonotonic. Loan-to-value (LTV) limits increase equity and lower the default rate, with negligible effects on housing demand. Combining recourse mortgages and LTV limits reduces the default rate while boosting housing demand. Together, they also prevent spikes in default after large declines in aggregate house prices.     

Mortgage convexity

Most home mortgages in the United States are fixed-rate loans with an embedded prepayment option. When long-term rates decline, the effective duration of mortgage-backed securities (MBS) falls due to heightened refinancing expectations. I show that these changes in MBS duration function as large-scale shocks to the quantity of interest rate risk that must be borne by professional bond investors. I develop a simple model in which the risk tolerance of bond investors is limited in the short run, so these fluctuations in MBS duration generate significant variation in bond risk premia. Specifically, bond risk premia are high when aggregate MBS duration is high. The model offers an explanation for why long-term rates could appear to be excessively sensitive to movements in short rates and explains how changes in MBS duration act as a positive-feedback mechanism that amplifies interest rate volatility. I find strong support for these predictions in the time series of US government bond returns.     

Mortgage timing

We study how the term structure of interest rates relates to mortgage choice at both household and aggregate levels. A simple utility framework of mortgage choice points to the long-term bond risk premium as distinct from the yield spread and the long yield as a theoretical determinant of mortgage choice: when the bond risk premium is high, fixed-rate mortgage payments are high, making adjustable-rate mortgages more attractive. We confirm empirically that the bulk of the time variation in both aggregate and loan-level mortgage choice can be explained by time variation in the bond risk premium, whether bond risk premia are measured using forecasters’ data, a vector autoregressive (VAR) term structure model, or a simple household decision rule based on adaptive expectations. The household decision rule moves in lock-step with mortgage choice, lending credibility to a theory of strategic mortgage timing by households.     

动产抵押的新拓展:枣庄活体畜禽抵押贷款案例

加大对畜牧业的信贷投入、缓解融资困境已成为调整农村产业结构、促进农村经济发展的重要内容.枣庄市峄城区农联社创办了"活体畜禽抵押"贷款新模式,为破解畜禽养殖企业融资困境提供了一条新途径.     

Optimal Mortgage Contract Choice Decision in the Presence of Pay Option Adjustable Rate Mortgage and the Balloon Mortgage

The unprecedented run-up in global house prices of the 2000s was preceded by a revolution in U.S. mortgage markets in which borrowers faced a plethora of mortgages to choose from collectively known as nontraditional mortgages (NTMs), whose poor performance helped ignite the global financial crisis in 2007. This paper studies the choice of mortgage contracts in an expanded framework where the menu of contracts includes the pay option adjustable rate mortgage (PO-ARM), and the balloon mortgage (BM), alongside the traditional long horizon fixed rate mortgage (FRM) and the short horizon regular ARM. The inclusion of the PO-ARM is based on the fact it is the most controversial and perhaps the riskiest of the NTMs, whereas the BM has not been analyzed in the literature despite its different risk-sharing arrangement and long vintage. Our inclusive model relates the structural differences of these contracts to the horizon risk management problems and affordability constraints faced by the households that differ in terms of expected mobility. The numerical solutions of the model generates a number of interesting results suggesting that households select mortgage contracts to match their horizon, manage horizon risk and mitigate liquidity or affordability constraints they face. From a risk management and welfare perspectives, we find that the optimal contract for households with shorter horizons, specifically households who expect to move house once every 1 to 2 years, is the PO-ARM. Beyond 2 years the welfare advantage of the PO-ARM diminishes and BM becomes the more optimal contract up to 5-year horizon. Overall, the results suggest that households are neither as risk averse as the selection of the FRM would suggest, nor are they as risk-seeking as the selection of PO-ARM or regular ARM would suggest. The results also suggest that the exuberance demonstrated for NTMs by borrowers, especially PO-ARMs, may be both rational and irrational.     

The Effect of Mortgage Price and Default Risk on Mortgage Spreads

Variations over time in mortgage yield spreads should reflect changes in the underlying prepayment option value; moreover, the relationship between mortgage yield spreads and interest rate dynamics should weaken as the value of the borrowers prepayment option declines. We verify this hypothesis through an empirical analysis of residential mortgage yield spread behavior, and we also present evidence that the strength of the relationship between mortgage spreads and interest rate dynamics weakens (strengthens) as the level of default risk increases (decreases). This result is consistent with the competing risks effect between a borrowers option to prepay or default. Our results demonstrate the importance of accounting for mortgage price discount to par as well as default risk when developing time series of mortgage yields.     

Mortgage Default during the U.S. Mortgage Crisis

Which theory can quantitatively explain the rise in mortgage defaults during the U.S. mortgage crisis? This paper finds that the double‐trigger hypothesis, which attributes mortgage default to the joint occurrence of negative equity and a life event such as unemployment, is consistent with the evidence. By contrast, a traditional frictionless default model strongly overpredicts the increase in default rates. This paper provides microfoundations for double‐trigger behavior in a model where unemployment causes liquidity problems for the borrower. This framework implies that mortgage crises may be mitigated at a lower cost by bailing out borrowers instead of lenders.     

典当:枯木逢春

一度绝迹 典当,是一个古老的行业,堪称金融业的鼻祖,迄今已有1700余年的历史了. 新中国建立后,典当行一度绝迹.1987年12月,四川成都开办了新中国第一家典当行--华茂典当服务商社,率先恢复了古老的典当行.自此,开办典当行之风大兴,大有席卷全国之势,最盛时的1993年全国各地开设了3000多家典当行,几经沉浮,如今尚存1000余家.这其中的大起大落,也与对典当行定位的认识不清、把握不准有关.