Pollution in a neo-classical world: The classics rehabilitated?

Summary In this paper it has been examined under what conditions the increasing costs of pollution will put a limit to the growth of output in a growing economy. On the assumption of a certain type of aggregate production function, labour- and land-augmenting technical progress and pollution costs progressively increasing with the stock of capital, the analysis led to the conclusion that only under very restrictive conditions economic development will not peter out in secular stagnation or semistagnation. Only if the rate of land-augmenting technical progress is sufficiently high with respect to the growth rates of capital and effective labour pollution costs will not be a barrier to economic growth. We thank Mr. A. F. Gerritsma, Roden, for drawing the figures.     

Do Firms Time Their Pollution Abatement Investments Optimally?

In this paper we develop an equilibrium business-cycle model for an economy with both clean and dirty (polluting) plants. We conclude that the best time to implement cleaner production technologies is during a slowdown of the economy. Due to external effects and market failures the timing of pollution abatement investments is not expected to be optimal in the real world. We test the optimality of the timing of those investments with data for Germany, the Netherlands, and the USA. It appears that for more than 25 per cent of the sectors pollution abatement investments show significant counter-cyclical behaviour, while in 10 per cent of the sectors these investments are pro-cyclical.     

转型、经济增长与动态财政政策——Zou(1996)两步法

本文在Zou (1996)的框架基础上,通过内生政府支出,并且将生产性支出设定为存量,求解一个含有私人消费、公共消费、私人资本存量和公共资本存量的动态系统。结论表明,存在一个最优资本产权结构,使得经济能够登上平衡增长道路。与Barro（1990）等不同的是,本文的模型将转型与经济增长紧密联系起来,用资本产权结构的动态变化来表征经济的转型过程,进一步地,财政政策的动态学也有了市场基础。     

Have Industrial Robots Improved Pollution Reduction? A Theoretical Approach and Empirical Analysis

To investigate whether industrial robots have improved the ecological environment, this study integrated the adoption of robot technology and pollution abatement into Melitz's heterogeneous firm model. This showed that using robots in production can lower firms' pollution intensity by increasing their abatement investments, and this reduction effect is greater for higher polluting firms and those subject to weaker local environmental regulations. These theoretical expectations were then confirmed through a series of empirical investigations based on Bartik instrument regressions, with multiple robustness checks as well as heterogeneity and mechanism analyses. This paper adds to the literature on the relationships between automation technologies and green transformation. It shows that in the pursuit of economic growth and environmental protection, it is necessary for policymakers to shift from pollution control to technical support for traditional manufacturing firms.     

Dynamic simulation and environmental policy analysis: beyond comparative statics and the environmental Kuznets curve

The paper presents a dynamic simulation model for the quantitativeanalysis of environmental policy, incorporating key featuresof technical progress in abatement and an explicit role forpolicy in determining costs and pollution over time. The modelis used to develop scenarios for PM, SO₂, and CO₂ abatementin developing countries, and the results are compared with thosethat emerge from studies of Environmental Kuznets Curves (EKC)of economic growth and pollution. The latter, by neglectingthe roles of policy and technical progress in pollution abatement,underestimate dramatically the possibilities for countries toreduce pollution while raising incomes.     

基于Malmquist指数的装备制造业创新效率及影响因素分析

在保持装备制造业经济总量不断增长的同时,如何有效的提高行业效率,已成为制造业发展中迫切需要解决的战略性问题。本文将装备制造业创新效率及其影响因素纳入一个完整的理论-实证分析框架,运用Malmquist指数法对我国装备制造业全要素生产率增长状况进行了测算,并把全要素生产率(TFP)的增长构成分解为技术进步和技术效率变化两个部分,并对影响因素采用面板模型进行GLS回归。研究结果发现,2000—2010年我国装备制造业年平均增长率为11%,从分行业的角度来看,平均增长最快的是通用设备制造业。通过省级面板数据对我国装备制造业创新效率的影响因素进行分析,回归结果显示,对TFP影响程度最大的因素是技术水平和人力资本存量。TFP影响系数最显著的地区为沿海地区,其次为中部地区、东北地区和西部地区。行业技术水平、地区经济发展水平以及行业开放程度的回归系数为正,人力资本存量的回归系数为负。最后,对提高装备制造业创新效率提出政策性建议。     

FDI、出口贸易与经济可持续增长研究——基于联立方程模型对福建经济的实证分析

考察FDI、出口贸易对经济增长和环境污染影响的已有文献,至今的研究往往忽略了同时探讨能源消费与它们之间的互动机制。鉴于此,本文使用1985-2009年的福建省时间序列经济数据,构建了包含能源消费方程在内的四方程联立方程模型进行实证分析,结果表明:一是福建省的经济增长与能源消费、经济增长与工业整体污染之间都存在着倒U型的曲线关系;二是FDI对于减少福建省的能源消费和工业整体污染都是有利的;三是为实现福建经济的可持续增长,政府和企业需要在大幅度提高产品的科技含量和附加价值、加强对内资出口企业的节能与环保技术改造和升级、调整产业结构并引导FDI更多地进入服务业领域以及加大环境污染治理的投资力度等方面制定切实可行的政策措施。     

Energy and machines. Energy capital ratios in Europe and Latin America. 1875–1970

The relationship between energy and capital is one of the most important aspects of modern economic growth. Machines need energy to produce all the goods we enjoy; energy would be far less useful for humankind in absence of machines. However, the great majority of the economic models do not take into account the elasticities of substitution (or complementaries) between these two main variables. Actually, energy is absent in many growth models and discussions on diverging economic development paths. We approach this relevant issue from a new perspective: energy and capital relations during 100 years. We use the latest estimations of capital stock (machinery and equipment) and energy consumption for Latin America and compare them with those of Western Europe. The energy–capital ratio (how much energy is used per unit of capital) could be a predictor of economic growth, thus providing stylised facts about the timing and causes of the different modernisation patterns of these regions and showing us some answers on the long-run relationship between energy consumption and capital accumulation.     

环境污染治理与经济增长:模型与中国的经验研究

通过建立一个人力资本内生增长模型,将环境及环境污染治理引入内生增长框架下进行分析,其中重点探讨了在达到均衡增长路径过程中经济增长、环境污染与环境污染治理的关系,同时考察了维持可持续发展需要具备的条件。在此基础上,运用中国的数据对理论模型的一些结果进行了计量检验。结果表明,清洁要素以及技术的使用是可持续发展的关键,中国对环境污染一直以来缺乏足够的重视,目前仍然需要加大环境污染治理力度,提高环境污染治理的效率,地方政府的行为在其中会起到重要作用。     

Boom and Bust Cycle of the Stock Market, and Economic Growth in a Vintage Capital Model

We construct a growth model of overlapping generations with vintage capital. There exists an equilibrium that converges to the balanced growth path through endogenous fluctuations of investment, consumption, and output in terms of the growth rate. When the technological change arrives and a rise in productivity is embodied only in newly invested capital, the economy converges to a new balanced growth path with a higher growth rate of output, but when we interpret the price of existing old capital as the stock market capitalization, the rise in productivity is accompanied by an initial decline in the stock market. Oscillatory equilibria are supported as perfect-foresight equilibria in the present framework with finitely lived agents and capital. Any oscillatory equilibrium is associated with the regime switch from an economy with both young and old capital in use into one with only old capital in use.     

Estimating the economic cost of China's new desulfur policy during her gradual accession to WTO: The case of industrial SO2 emission

To understand the potential impacts of China's accession to WTO on her new desulphur policy (gradual reduction of 10% of annual SO₂ emission by 2005 with respect to that of 2000), we construct a CGE model in which SO₂ emission is directly linked to energy input consumption in production. The model equally considers the substitution possibility between energies of different SO₂ effluent ratios by including energy as labor and capital in the constant elasticity of transformation production function. The positive externality of trade in China's economy is also included. This model is then calibrated into a 55-sector Chinese SAM for the year 1997. Four policy simulations (Business as Usual, Openness policy only, desulfur policy only, and the combination of openness and desulfur policy) are made for the period from 1997 to 2005. The results show that the environmental impact of trade, though proven to be “negative”, stays rather modest. This is owing to the industrial composition transformation that deviates the specialization of the Chinese economy towards labor-intensive sectors under the new trade liberalization process. We do not find evidence for the “pollution haven” hypothesis. Seemingly ambitious, the new desulphur policy will only bring small economic growth loss. The pollution reduction objective will be realized mainly by substitution between polluting and less or non-polluting energies. The combination of trade liberalization and pollution control policy seems to give China more flexibility in adapting her economy to the new desulphur objective. Considering these different aspects together, the total economic loss due to the new desulphur policy will be limited to only − 0.26% under the presence of trade liberalization.     

Measuring Green Productivity Growth for China's Manufacturing Sectors: 1991–2000*

Over the past two decades, China has sustained rapid economic growth of 8–10 percent, part of which is attributed to the positive total factor productivity (TFP) growth. However, this extraordinary economic performance has been accompanied by severe environmental pollution and associated health damage. The conventional TFP method is biased in interpreting the progress of technology change because it does not consider non‐marketable residues, such as environmental pollution, and, hence, efficiency improvements in terms of pollution abatement technology and environmentally friendly management are ignored. This bias might direct our attention to less efficient use of environmental friendly abatement technologies or send wrong signals to policy‐makers. To address this issue, the present paper applies a modified welfare‐based green TFP approach, treating environmental damage as non‐desirable (negative) residual output. Therefore, environmental efficiency is taken into account to accurately interpret technological progress from a social welfare point of view. Based on a national time‐series input–output table, historical capital and labor input data for China and sectoral level air pollution emission data from 1991 to 2000, the empirical results suggest that with increasingly stringent environmental regulations, many pollution intensive sectors, such as electricity, primary metal and chemical industries, improved their environmental efficiency in the late 1990s. However, because of the weak environmental regulations in construction and transportation, and in sectors primarily composed of small private or township and village industrial enterprises, firms within these industries contributed to increasing environmental degradation.     

基于SFA的我国中东部经济发展效率差异性的实证分析

以10个省1999—2008年的面板数据为基础,运用基于超越对数的随机前沿生产函数模型,分析了中东部经济发展的技术效率、技术进步和全要素生产率,研究发现:中部的技术效率和技术进步要低于东部,中部对资本和劳动力投入的依存度较大,但中部的效率变化值很大,导致全要素生产率大于东部,中东部经济发展差异存在着减小的趋势。     

FDI、知识溢出与生产率增长——基于DEA方法和状态空间模型的经验研究

本文利用DEA方法对中国全要素生产率进行了测算,在此基础上建立国际知识溢出分析框架,检验了基于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对全要素生产率的溢出效应。结果表明:国内知识资本和基于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对TFP增长起到显著的促进作用;通过对TFP进行分解发现,两者对技术进步促进作用明显,对技术效率影响微弱;采用状态空间模型进一步分析发现,于FDI渠道的国外知识资本对TFP的贡献度在不断上升。     

Equilibrium Selection in an Experimental Macroeconomy

In this paper we report the results of an experiment designed to study the behavior of a laboratory macroeconomy with two stable steady states. The economy has the structure of an optimal growth model in which resources are allocated between consumption and investment over a sequence of time periods. The economy is decentralized, with a market for capital in operation. We find that the economy often falls into the Pareto-inferior steady state, which can be viewed as a poverty trap. The initial endowment of capital stock is varied as a treatment variable in the experiment, and the economy is more likely to reach the optimal steady state when its initial endowment is high than when it is low. Organizing the economy with a central planner directing economic activity fails to induce it to reach the optimal steady state.     

基于时变随机前沿生产函数的上海工业增长因素分析

本文应用时变随机前沿生产函数和行业面板数据．测算出1995-2004年上海工业32个行业的动态劳动、资本产出弹性，技术进步率和技术效率变化率；在此基础上进一步得到各因素对工业产值增长的贡献度。主要结论是：（1）上海工业增长主要依赖资本投入的高速增长和加速的技术进步率；（2）资本增长比技术进步对上海工业产值的增长有更大的贡献度，而要实现工业可持续增长，必须依靠更快的技术进步；（3）上海工业总体的技术效率变化率向下变化，说明市场自由竞争的加剧导致了不同行业或企业的技术效率差距在拉大．这有利于行业资源优化配置和上海工业可持续发展。     

技术进步对工业经济增长的贡献研究——基于重庆工业的面板数据

基于2003-2010年重庆市工业38个细分行业的面板数据,运用简化的Cobb-Douglas生产函数与Solow余值法测算出重庆市工业年均复合生产技术进步为9.53%,年均复合广义技术进步为15.76%,其广义技术进步年均复合贡献相对份额为55.50%,但是其资本要素产出弹性较低以及技术进步贡献有下降趋势。由此判定重庆市工业经济正在向由技术进步带动生产效率、要素使用效率提高的集约型增长方式转变。     

To Spend the U.S. Government Surplus or to Increase the Deficit? A Numerical Analysis of the Policy Options

This paper provides a numerical analysis of the likely benefits from adopting alternative ways of reducing the projected fiscal surplus (as of the summer 2001) in the United States economy. Calibrating a small growth model, our results suggest that investing the surplus in public capital is likely to yield the greatest long-run welfare gains, although decreasing the capital income tax is only marginally inferior. Both these options dominate increasing government consumption expenditure or decreasing the tax on labor income. By shifting resources from consumption toward capital the two superior policies involve sharp intertemporal tradeoffs in welfare; significant short-run welfare losses are more than compensated by large long-run welfare gains. By contrast, the two inferior options are gradually welfare-improving through time. A crucial factor in determining the benefits of reducing the government surplus through spending is the size of the government sector relative to the social optimum. We find that the second-best optimum is to increase both forms of government expenditure to their respective social optima, while at the same time restructuring taxes by reducing the tax on capital and raising the tax on wage income to achieve the targeted reduction in the surplus. J. Japan. Int. Econ., December 2002, 16(4), pp. 405–435. Department of Economics, University of Washington, Seattle, Washington; and Department of Economics, Terry College of Business, University of Georgia, Atlanta, Georgia. © 2002 Elsevier Science (USA).Journal of Economic Literature Classification Numbers: E62, O41.     

Are China's trade interests overestimated? Evidence from firms’ importing behavior and pollution emissions

Importing is an important driving force for a country's economic growth. While importing promotes the expansion of economic scale, does it also lead the increase of pollution emissions in production? In this paper, we establish a micro theoretical model to analyze the impacts of importing on firms’ environmental performance, and then use the data of China's manufacturing firms for empirical tests. We show that the importing of intermediate goods or capital goods will lead to the increase of firms’ production scale, and thereby increasing their total emissions, which suggests that China's environment will be deteriorated by importing. On the other hand, importing also has some positive environmental effects that firms will increase their abatement investment after importing intermediate goods or capital goods, thus firms’ emission intensity can be effectively reduced. Altogether, this paper provides important evidence on the impacts of importing on pollution emissions at product-level. We suggest that when analyzing China's interests in trade, the environmental effects of trade should be taken into consideration, otherwise China's gains from trade will be overestimated. This paper also has important implications that while developing the economy through international trade, the government should strengthen environmental protection and advocate green trade.     

Growth Constraints and Determinants of a South Pacific Island in a Global Economy: A Study of Fiji

Abstract

In a global economy, the South Pacific islands face unique constraints to growth. The study investigates whether Fiji was benefited by three-decade old open trade policies. Through a multivariate cointegration analysis, the study establishes the existence of a long-run relationship between open trade policy and physical and human capital resources. Although physical capital had a positive impact on growth, the existing complementary relationship between two kinds of capital requires that a threshold between physical and human capital needs to be attained before any negative influence on growth can be transformed into positive impact.