The Economic Impact of Brexit: Evidence from Modelling Free Trade Agreements

This paper assesses the economic implications of the United Kingdom (UK) leaving the European Union (EU). The basic data on trade in goods and services and investment between the two parties suggest that the cost of “Brexit” could be substantial. Trade between the UK and the EU-27 is large and of a similar order of magnitude as transatlantic trade (between the EU and the U.S.). The precise nature of the (hopefully free) trade agreement UK-EU-27 is still being negotiated. All available studies concur that a significant disruption of trade links will impose economic costs on both sides. However, the EU-27 would bear only a disproportionally small share of the total cost, not just because it is about five times larger than the UK in economic terms, but also for fundamental reasons such as greater market power of its enterprises. Other studies on different free trade arrangements confirm the general proposition that the smaller party has more to gain from eliminating trade barriers (and more to lose from imposing them). This implies that the EU will have a stronger negotiating position.     

Estimating expected return of corporate bond from equity prices using structural model

Bond rating and yield do not tell investors the expected return they can earn. In this paper, the author uses structural model which provides a link between the credit quality of a firm and the firm＇s economic and financial conditions to estimate the probability of default and the expected return of corporate bond from equity data. The volatility of bond return is also discussed. The purpose of this research is to help bond investors to make more informed investment decision.     

MERCOSUR in gravity: an accounting approach to analyzing its trade effects

This paper aims at unveiling the roots of integration-induced trade effects for MERCOSUR. For this purpose, its methodology combines previous dummy-variables- and continuous variable approaches to identifying trade creation and trade diversion effects in a gravity model framework. Applying a straightforward accounting exercise to the integration-induced trade effects which are found for MERCOSUR en bloc, two results are central: Firstly, with sectoral exceptions, I generally identify pure trade creating effects on the import side but also find trade diversion with associate countries when refining extra-bloc country status. Secondly, while extra-bloc import growth seems to be driven predominantly by non-tariff determinants, trade creation in pooled commodity imports for the largest fraction stems from differences in the tariff treatment between trading partners.     

以浙江为例,看后危机时代开发区的发展

自1984年国务院批准设立第一个宁波经济技术开发区以来,一度开发区群雄并起、良莠混杂。清理整顿前我国有各类开发区超过6000家,但经国务院批准的仅232家,省级批准的也不过1019家。随着2003年的清理整顿,开发区的数量有了一定的减少,与此同时各类国家级开发区数量基本保持稳定,     

Preference erosion and the developing countries exports to the EU: a dynamic panel gravity approach

The erosion of preferences due to multilateral tariff reductions is a long-standing concern for many developing countries. This paper focuses on the erosion of the preferences granted by the EU in the rice industry. Since 2004 there has been a sharp decrease in border protection for the EU rice industry. Because the EU grants trade preferences to a considerable number of rice exporting developing countries, the reform implied preference erosion as well. By addressing the impact of preference erosion on developing countries rice exports to the EU, this paper contributes two original insights to the literature: first, by proposing a new empirical approach to compute the preference margin when tariff rate quotas are in force which is based on the assumption of the existence of fixed costs and economies of scale in international trade; second, by estimating the trade elasticities of preferences by means of a dynamic panel gravity equation to deal with the issues of endogeneity of preferences and persistency in bilateral trade flows. The results show that the way preference margins are calculated matters significantly when assessing the existence and extent of their erosion and the values of trade elasticities. Finally, the estimations highlight the fact that the impact of preferences is still very strong for some of the countries concerned.     

Engel versus Baumol: Accounting for structural change using two centuries of U.S. data

In the last two centuries, the reallocation of labor out of agriculture has been a dominant feature of structural change and economic growth in the United States. This paper uses an accounting framework founded in economic theory to decompose this reallocation into three components: a demand-side effect due to the low income elasticity of demand for agricultural goods (Engel effect), and two supply-side effects, one due to differential sectoral productivity growth rates (Baumol effect), and the other to differential capital deepening. The results show that the Engel effect accounts for almost all labor reallocation until the 1950s, after which the Baumol effect becomes a key determinant. Our framework provides a unified account of long-run structural change, and demonstrates that historical interpretations and theoretical models that emphasize only one dimension of this process cannot properly account for the dramatic history of labor reallocation in the United States.     

Economic structural changes and rural income: Evidence from Chinese provinces during the reform period

During the reform period, the Chinese rural economy has experienced deep structural changes: cropping adjustment, agro-forestry adjustment and agro-industrial adjustment. At the same time, rural per capita income rose sharply despite some fluctuations. Using a panel data of 29 provinces from 1982 to 2001, effects of these structural changes upon both income level and income instability are assessed. The empirical results show that crop adjustment and agro-industrial adjustment can increase rural income and reduce income instability, while agro-forestry adjustment reduces both income and its instability, as a risk-management strategy.     

Stock prices and the efficient market hypothesis: Evidence from a panel stationary test with structural breaks

This paper investigates whether the efficient market hypothesis holds in stock markets under different economic development levels over the period January 1999 to May 2007. We employ a state-of-the-art panel data stationarity test which incorporates multiple structural breaks. Evidence indicates that when accommodating general forms of cross-sectional dependence as well as controlling for finite-sample bias, the real stock price series appear to be stationary in 32 developed and 26 developing countries, respectively, which is in sharp contrast to the findings in the existing literature. Thus, real stock price indices are stationary processes that are inconsistent with the efficient market hypothesis. This shows the presence of profitable arbitrage opportunities among stock markets. According to these estimated structural breakpoints, we are also able to discover the reason for why there has been a huge impact from past stock prices.     

The sustainability of trade deficits in the presence of endogenous structural breaks: Evidence from the Indian economy

This study examines the long-run relationship between exports and imports of the Indian economy during 1950–51 to 2008–09. Applying unit root test and cointegration technique that allows for endogenously determined structural break in the relationship, the results do not support the existence of any long-run equilibrium relationship between exports and imports and interest payments on net debt for India. Individually exports and imports have multiple breaks clustered roughly around three periods: early and mid seventies – the ‘comfort period’ in the country's balance of payments; 1986–87 that witnessed a sudden jump in exports trend after experiencing a flat trend in the first half of 1980s; and 1997–98 following the East Asian currency crisis. The findings imply that India's macroeconomic policies have not been very effective to ensure sustainability of trade deficit in the long-run and suggest that India is in violation of its international budget constraint.     

统筹城乡：从探索到试验

统筹城乡是我国在新形势下为破解城乡二元结构所做的重大战略调整。成都市早在2003年10月就开始了统筹城乡的探索,提出了以"三个集中"为核心,以市场化为动力,以规范化服务型政府建设和基层民主政治建设为保障的基本做法。国家批准设立重庆市和成都市统筹城乡综合配套改革试验区,是对四年多来成都市统筹城乡的探索实践的充分肯定,也是成都市必须承担的重大历史使命。文章还对成都市实施综合配套改革的总体思路进行了探讨。     

资本系的狂欢与没落

尽管市场已经淡忘,但曾经喧嚣一时的“资本系”是中国资本市场发展史上无法抹去的一页     

Determinants of the 1991–1993 Japanese recession: Evidence from a structural model of the Japanese economy

The objectives of this paper are to determine the extent to which various factors contributed to the most recent recession in Japan and to assess whether the recent behavior of the Japanese economy differs from that in previous recessions. Toward that end, we develop a small, structural macroeconometric model of the Japanese economy and estimate it using data from 1971 Q1 to 1991 Q1, the period just prior to the recent downturn. The important results can be summarized as follows. First, the severity of the recent recession probably does not reflect structural economic changes. Second, the poor economic performance in 1991–1993 period was to some extent predictable, reflecting the unwinding of imbalances that developed during the preceding expansion. Finally, unpredictable movements in exchange rates, land prices, and stock prices occurring after 1991 played an important, but not predominant, part in accentuating the downturn, while unusually stimulative fiscal and monetary policies appear to have contributed substantially to GDP during the recession.     

包凡:用资本催生企业神话

华兴资本在2007年完成20个项目,交易额接近100亿元人民币,而这一个个资本神话故事都是由这个年轻的首席执行官包凡导演的。     

品牌立国：中国向德国制造学什么？

2010年Interbrand全球最佳品牌100强出炉,遍览其榜还是寻不出一个中国品牌,不觉叫人扼腕兴叹。美国毫无疑问的位列榜首,而位列第二位的却是二战中的最大输家——德国。德国的工业革命足足比英国晚了近80年。而＂德国制造＂,更是被当时的＂世界工厂＂嗤之以鼻。二战结束至今也不过60余年,德意志民族在之后的岁月里,凭着自身严谨的态度,创造出了无数知名品牌。如此短时间内德国崛起速度之快简直叫人瞠目。     

战略联盟：竞争走向合作竞争

９０年代,面对全球经济一体化和日益激烈的竞争环境,国际上出现了一种新的企业竞争组织形式－－战略联盟。本文概述了企业战略联盟理论的起源、特色及其主要思想,结合中国企业的实际情况,提出了一些可操作的建议。