Exports of manufactures by developing countries: emerging patterns of trade and location

Developing countries are rapidly increasing their shares ofmanufactured trade, not just in labour-intensive products, butalso in capital- and skill-intensive ones; their shares arerising particularly rapidly in the high-technology area. However,manufactured exports remain highly concentrated in the developingworld, with a few countries dominating all forms of export.Within the successful exporting countries, there are significantdifferences in the 'technology content' of exports. These trendsare difficult to explain with received trade theory, even takinghuman capital into account, or with reference to broad economicpolicies: it is useful to bring in 'learning', along with scaleeconomies, increasing returns, and agglomeration as determinantsof comparative advantage. These factors imply market failures,and so a role for policy in developing genuine comparative advantages.This article suggests that emerging trade and location patternsin the developing work are explained by market imperfectionsand government policies to overcome them.     

The World Bank and infrastructure development in developing countries∗

The history of the World Bank, which encompasses The International Bank for Reconstruction and Development (IBRD), The International Development Association (IDA) and The International Finance Corporation (IFC) is very briefly traced. The operation of these three banking organizations is described and then compared in a useful summary table, in respect of objectives, types of activities, current scope of activities, terms of lending, sources of funds, etc. At the operational level the typical project cycle, consisting of six phases, is briefly described.     

Food aid to developing countries: A survey

Food aid currently constitutes nearly 15% of official development assistance and hence has considerable potential as a stimulant to growth in LDCs. This paper reviews the evidence on the impact of food aid on growth and its associated factors. While recognizing that the use of food aid is influenced by a constellation of interests in recipient and donor countries, it identifies a set of guiding principles for maximizing the effectiveness of food aid. These include the need for food (relative to other development needs), its level of substitutability with commercial imports, its incorporation in a poverty-oriented development plan, its guaranteed availability and its complementarity with financial aid. Current food aid programmes recognize the relevance of some of these principles - e.g. the criteria of necessity - but ignore others — notably the need to situate food aid in a comprehensive plan for improving patterns of income distribution in LDCs.     

Adjustment policies in developing countries: A reassessment

This paper analyses policy responses to external shocks by developing countries in the 1974–1976 and 1979–1981 periods. It is shown that outward-oriented economies relied largely on output-increasing policies of export promotion and import substitution to offset the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks in both periods and accepted a temporary decline in the rate of economic growth in order to limit their external indebtedness. In turn, inward-oriented economies failed to apply output-increasing policies of adjustment. They financed the balance-of-payments effects of external shocks by foreign borrowing in the 1974–1976 period, and had to take deflationary measures in 1979–1981 as their increased indebtedness limited the possibilities for further borrowing. The policies applied led to substantially higher rates of economic growth in outward-oriented than in inward-oriented economies, with the differences in growth rates offsetting the differences in the size of external shocks several times.     

Labour market performance in developing countries: A survey

Malfunctioning of labour markets is often given as a principal explanation of the widespread poverty in developing countries. Open urban unemployment and disguised unemployment in agriculture are generally considered symptoms of the poor performance of the decentralized system of allocation of labour time and skills in these countries.This survey leads us to a much less pessimistic view of labour market performance per se, though obviously imperfections do exist. On the one hand, the shifts of the labour force in response to shifts in demand have been noteworthy and suggest, at an aggregate level, rather impressive performance. On the other, a closer look at open unemployment, disguised unemployment, and other possible types of labour market malfunctions suggests that they may be less serious misallocations than they appear, and that only in part can such misallocations be attributed to poor labour market functioning.Though the labour market is the immediate locus of the problem of low and stagnant incomes of workers at the bottom of the distribution, the evidence suggests no causality in this association. There is no reason to presume that poverty is a manifestation of labour market failure.     

Socioeconomic equity and fertility in developing countries: A block-recursive model

Summary This paper explores the interrelationships among fertility and three measurable aspects of socioeconomic equity: life expectancy, schooling, and income distribution. A block-recursive model of interaction among these variables is tested on cross-sectional data for developing countries. The structural results validate the initial hypotheses, with an important exception: income distribution does not act directly on fertility. Taking indirect effects into account, by deriving the reduced form of the system, shows life expectancy and schooling as major determinants of fertility, and income distribution as a lesser influence. The feedback from fertility to income equity considerably exceeds the net effect in the other direction.This paper was completed while the author was a visiting scholar at The Carolina Population Center and Department of Economics, University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. Richard Bilsborrow, Boone Turchi, and 7. Richard Udry provided helpful comments on an earlier version. Sang E. Lee and V. Panoutsopoulos kindly made available unpublished data from World Bank files.     

Optimal monetary reserves for developing countries

Zusammenfassung Optimale monet?re Reserven für Entwicklungsl?nder. — In dem vorliegenden Aufsatz wird ein Modell zur Bestimmung der optimalen Hóhe der monet?ren Reserven für ein Entwicklungsland vorgelegt. Ein optimaler Bestand an W?hrungsreserven wird als der Betrag definiert, der es einem Entwicklungsland ermóglicht, seine bei einem gegebenen festen Wechselkurs entstchenden, tempor?ren und unvorhergeschenen Zahlungsbilanzdefizite zu finanzieren, die sich in einer Planungsperiode ergeben, und gleichzeitig dem Lande einen Vorteil zu verschaffen, der den Alternativkosten der Haltung dieser Reserven entspricht. Das Modell wird auf folgende ausgew?hlte asiatische Entwicklungsl?nder angewendet, für die hinreichende Daten verfügbar sind: Ceylon, Indien, Republik Korea, Pakistan, Philippinen, Taiwan und Thailand.

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Résumé Réserves monétaires optimales pour pays à développer. — Dans cet article on présente un modèle pour déterminer le montant optimal des réserves monétaires d’un pays à développer. On considère comme montant optimal celui qui permet à un pays à développer de financer, à un cours du change fixe donné, les déficits temporaires et imprévus de sa balance des paiements, qui surviennent pendant une période de planification, et qui lui permet en même temps de procurer à ce pays un avantage égal aux co?ts alternatifs de l’entretien de ces réserves. On a choisi, pour l’application de ce modèle, les pays asiatiques de développement pour lesquels on avait les données nécaissaires. Ce sont: Ceylan, Inde, République Coréenne, Pakistan, Philippines, Taiwan et Tha?lande.

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Resumen La reserva monetaria óptima para paises en desarrollo. — En el presente articulo se presenta un modelo para determinar el volumen óptimo de las reservas monetarias de un país en desarrollo. Este volumen óptimo se define como la reserva que, con tipos de cambios fijos, permita al pais financiar aquellos déficit en la balanza de pagos, temporales e imprevistos, que surjan durante un período de planificación, y que le proporcione a este país un beneficio que equivalga a los ?opportunity costs? engendrados por la mantención de reservas monetarias. Este modelo se aplica a varios países asiáticos, para los cuales existen los datos necesarios, a saber: Ceilán, India, Rep?blica de Corea, Paquistán, Filipinas, Formosa y Tailandia.

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Riassunto Ottimali riserve monetarie per Paesi in via di sviluppo. — Nel presente articolo viene presentato un modello per la determinazione dell’ammontare ottimale delie riserve monetarie per un Paese in via di sviluppo. Un ottimale fondo di riserve valutarie è definita la somma che renda possibile ad un Paese in via di sviluppo di finanziare i suoi deficit temporanei ed imprevisti della bilancia dei pagamenti che si formano in un cambio fisso dato e che risultano in un periodo di pianificazione, e contemporaneamente di procurare al Paese un vantaggio che corrisponda ai costi alternativi del comportamento di queste riserve. Il modello è applicato ai seguenti prescelti Paesi asiatici in via di sviluppo, per i quali sono disponibili sufficienti dati: Ceylon, India, Repubblica di Corea, Pakistan, Filippine, Formosa e Tailandia.

     

Motivations for aid to developing countries

This paper attempts to identify the underlying principles of aid allocation, and particularly the balance of motivations as between the needs of recipient countries and the interests of donor countries. Two alternative models are fitted by cross-country regressions to bilateral and multilateral aid flows to some 80 developing countries in 1969–1970 and 1978–1980. The first (recipient need) model assumes that all aid is given to compensate for shortfalls in domestic resources. This model provides a reasonable explanation for the distribution of multilateral aid, but it is clearly not applicable for bilateral aid flows. The second (donor interest) model assumes that all aid serves only donor interests, defined to cover political/security investment and trade interests. This model gives generally good explanations of bilateral aid, but is a poor fit for multilateral aid. The relative importance of the various donor interests differs sharply among donors. The paper ends with an analysis of the shift in the balance of aid over the 1970s towards the recipient need element, and with a reference to the sharp change in policy in the 1980s towards increasing emphasis on donor interest aid.     

Small industry in developing countries: A discussion of issues

This paper first examines the changing size distribution of industry in developing countries by region and over time, and, by reference to firm-level surveys, it discusses the underlying causes. The importance of markets generated by the growth of agriculture and rural incomes for the regional development of industry, both small- and large-scale, is noted. Second, it discusses the entrepreneurship issue, arguing that while small and largefirms alike are highly responsive to the growth of markets, the measured entrepreneurial response is neither as full nor as efficient as is desirable. The third and last part discusses small industry programmes and their relation to development policy. Financing and extension programmes are considered in detail, and there is a discussion of the risks involved. Some parallels with agricultural credit are discussed, in particular the default problem and the problems associated with concessionary finance. It is also argued that small industries - and, by implication, the programmes intended to support them - would stand to benefit from more efficient (and also more labour-demanding) policies towards agriculture and industry.     

Linking agribusiness and small-scale farmers in developing countries: Is there a new role for contract farming?

This article examines a new role for contract farming in developing countries in the light of the industrialisation of agriculture and the globalisation of world markets. A theoretical rationale for contracting in developing countries is developed on the basis of adopting new institutional economic theory for the purpose of matching governance forms to market failure problems and transaction characteristics. The history of contract farming is reviewed, together with the advantages and disadvantages to the various players, for the purpose of developing a list of key success factors, problems and some possible solutions.     

Export incentives and export performance in developing countries: A comparative analysis

Zusammenfassung Exportf?rderung und Exporterfolge in Entwicklungs-l?ndern: Eine vergleichende Analyse. — Dieser Aufsatz enth?lt eine vergleichende Be-wertung der Exportf?rderungsmaβnahmen und ihrer Wirkungen auf die Exporte und die wirtschaftliche Leistung von elf wichtigen Entwicklungsl?ndern, die bereits eine industrielle Basis besitzen. Die Arbeit konzentriert sich weitgehend auf die Er-fahrungen der Periode von 1966 bis 1973, in der die Exportf?rderungsprogramme der einzelnen L?nder im groβen und ganzen voll angewendet wurden. Die betrach-teten L?nder sind Argentinien, Brasilien, Chile, Kolumbien, Mexiko, Israel, Ju-goslawien, Indien, Korea, Singapur und Taiwan. Sie sind entsprechend dem Zeit-punkt und dem Ausmaβ ihrer Exportf?rderungsanstrengungen in vier Gruppen eingeteilt worden. 1973 stellten diese L?nder 68 vH aller Exporte von Industrie-erzeugnissen aus Entwicklungsl?ndern. Bei der Durchführung der vergleichenden Analyse hat der Autor neben den Resultaten anderer Forscher die Ergebnisse von Studien benutzt, die im Auftrage der Weltbank und für das ECLA/IBRD-Seminar über Exportf?rderung erarbeitet wurden. Der Aufsatz beschreibt kurz die Exportf?rderungsanstrengungen der einzelnen L?nder, die sich daraus ergebenden ?nderungen ihrer F?rderungssysteme und die Lage im Jahre 1973. Die Wirkungen dieser Mavnahmen auf Export und Wirt-schaftswachstum werden abgesch?tzt und Empfehlungen gegeben für ein ?ideales? Anreizsystem zur Exportf?rderung und für die allgemeine Allokation der Ressourcen. In den Schluβfolgerungen wird auf die Zukunftsaussichten für die gewerblichen Exporte der Entwicklungsl?nder eingegangen.

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Résumé Les incitations exportatrices et la performance exportatrice dans les pays en voie de développement: une analyse comparative. — Ce papier présente une évaluation comparative des incitations exportatrices et leurs effets sur les exportations et la performance économique dans onze majeurs pays développants qui ont déjà établi une base industrielle. Principalement le papier concentre sur l’ex-périence de la période 1966–1973, quand les schèmes des incitations exportatrices des pays individuels étaient totalement en opération. Les pays considérés sont l’Argentine, le Brésil, le Chili, la Colombie, le Mexique, l’Israel, la Yougoslavie, l’Inde, la Corée, le Singapore et le Taiwan. Nous les classifions en quatre groupes, en dépendence du temps et de l’étendue de leurs efforts de promotion exportatrice. En 1973, ces pays occupaient un pourcentage de 68 des exportations des produits manufacturiers des pays développants. En faisant l’analyse comparative, l’auteur a utilisé les résultats des études préparées sous l’égide de la Banque Mondiale, les résultats des études préparées pour le séminaire du CEAL/BIRD sur la promotion exportatrice, aussi bien que les résultats des autres chercheurs. Le papier brèvement décrit les efforts de promotion exportatrice des pays indi-viduels, les changes résultants dans leurs systèmes d’incitations et la situation existante en 1973. Nous évaluons les effets de ces efforts sur les exportations et la croissance économique et nous faisons des recommandations pour un système ?idéal? des incitations pour les exportations et l’allocation des resources en général. Finale-ment, en tirant des conclusions du papier, nous considérons les prospects pour les exportations des produits manufacturiers par les pays développants.

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Resumen Incentivos de exportación y desempe?o de las exportaciones en países en desarrollo: un análisis comparativo. — Este artículo presenta una evalua-ción comparativa de los incentivos de exportación y sus efectos sobre las exporta-ciones y el desempe?o de la economía en once países en desarrollo de tama?o mayor que ya han establecido una base industrial. E1 artículo se concentra mayormente sobre la experiencia del período 1966–1973, cuando los esquemas de incentivos a la exportación de los países individuales estaban en su mayor parte en operación. Los países considerados son Argentina, Brasil, Chile, Colombia, México, Israel, Yugoeslavia, India, Corea, Singapur y Taiwan. Ellos fueron clasificados en cuatro grupos, dependiendo de la regulación y del grado de sus esfuerzos de promoción de exportación. En el a?o 1973, estos países sumaban el 68% de las exportaciones de manufacturas de los países en desarrollo. Para realizar el análisis comparativo, el autor ha utilizado resultados de estudios preparados bajo el auspicio del Banco Mundial, resultados de estudios preparados para el seminario CEPAL/IBRD sobre promoción de exportaciones, como también los resultados de otros investigadores. El articulo describe brevemente los efuerzos de promoción de exportación de los países individuales, los cambios ocurridos en sus sistemas de incentivos y la situación existente en el a?o 1973. Se evalúan los efectos de estos esfuerzos sobre las exportaciones y el crecimiento económico y se formulan recomendaciones para un sistema ?ideal? de incentivos a las exportaciones y para la alocación de recursos en general. Finalmente, al formular las conclusiones de este articulo, se hacen con-sideraciones sobre las perspectivas futuras para las exportaciones de bienes manu-factuardos de países en desarrollo.