Famine: a simple general equilibrium model

Agents in this model begin each period with an endowment offood, the sole commodity. Their utility is a function of currentconsumption, which has to exceed a specified minimum to ensuresurvival, and their endowment in the following period. Thereare three markets: those for labour, land, and food; there isno capital market. A famine can be triggered by a loss of endowmentwhich causes the food wage to fall below the survival minimum.The model is employed to compare the effects of public worksand food distribution as relief policies and shows the latterto be superior.     

中国出口增加值的服务要素贡献率提高了吗?

服务作为中间投入要素推动了制造业价值链的形成并创造了服务业价值链,服务要素尤其是国内服务要素贡献率的提高代表了贸易收益和全球价值链地位的提升。文章基于TiVA数据库构建了出口增加值中服务要素贡献率的测算方法,核算并比较了中国制造业、服务业出口增加值中服务要素的贡献率后得出结论:服务要素整体对中国出口增加值的贡献率逐步提高,但受到服务业开放、服务要素跨境流动和国内服务要素供给结构等因素的影响,服务要素对中国出口增加值的贡献度整体不高,并且存在一定的行业差异;知识和技术密集型服务要素的累积和培育是中国提高出口增加值中服务要素贡献率和全球价值链地位的重要途径。     

Welfare effects of non-tariff barriers: A general equilibrium analysis

Zusammenfassung Wohlfahrtswirkungen nichttarif?rer Handelshemmnisse. Eine Analyse des allgemeinen Gleichgewichts. — Dieser Aufsatz geht von der Beobachtung aus, da? Importquoten, Exportquoten oder freiwillige Ausfuhrbeschr?nkungen zu unterschiedlich hohen Anteilen der Handelspartner an der Knappheitsrente führen, und behandelt die Wohlfahrtswirkungen der internationalen Verteilung der Renten aus solchen protektionistischen Ma?nahmen. Unter anderem wird gezeigt, da? die Konsumenten in einer Zwei-L?nder-Welt mit repr?sentativen Haushalten um so weniger von einer Handelsbeschr?nkung profitieren, je kleiner ihr Anteil an der Knappheitsrente ist.

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Résumé Les effets du bien-être des barrières non-tarifaires: une analyse de l’équilibre général. — Commen?ant par l’observation que les quotas d’importations ou d’exportations ainsi que les restrictions à l’exportation volontaires mènent aux parts différentes des partenaires commerciaux en ce qui concerne la rente résultant de la pénurie, cette étude expose les conséquences pour le bien-être de la distribution internationale de la rente qui résulte de telles mesures de protection. Entre autres, on démontre que dans un monde de deux économies aux ménages représentatifs, les consommateurs d’un pays probablement profitent le moins d’une barrière non-tarifaire, si leur part concernant la rente résultant de la pénurie est plus petite.

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Resumen Los efectos de barreras no arancelarias sobre el bienestar: un análisis de equilibrio general. — Partiendo de la observatión de que cupos de importation, cupos de exportation o restricciones voluntarias a las exportaciones dan lugar a participaciones diferentes en la renta por escasez para cada una de las partes comerciantes, este trabajo trata de las implicaciones que tiene para el bienestar la distribución international de la renta ligada a dichas medidas protectionistas. Inter alia se demuestra que en un mundo con dos economías y hogares representatives, los consumidores de un país se benefician con menor probabilidad de una restrictión al comercio, cuanto menor sea su participatión en la renta por escasez.

     

基于增值贸易的中国国际贸易竞争力分析

本文基于增值贸易和参与全球生产价值链的视角,以贸易收益为纽带,从4个方面对世界三大出口国中国、德国和美国进行比较来分析中国国际贸易竞争力:(1)在全球生产价值链中的位置;(2)国外消费需求引致的国内就业和收入;(3)国内增值占进口国最终产品需求的比重;(4)GVC收入显示性比较优势。研究表明,尽管国际贸易给中国带来了就业和收入的增长,但由于中国处于全球生产价值链的下游和国际生产价值链微笑曲线的底端,从增值贸易的角度看,中国国际贸易竞争力不大。要提高中国国际贸易竞争力,就必须要实施产业升级,调整产业结构,增加出口的国内增值。     

A partial equilibrium model of smuggling

Zusammenfassung Ein partielles Gleichgewichtsmodell des Schmuggels. — Es gibt viele Faktoren, die zu einem Markt für Schmuggelwaren führen k?nnen, z.B. Importz?lle und -quoten, Devisenkontrollen und indirekte Steuern. Am Beispiel eines Einfuhrzolls als Mittel der Handelsbeschr?nkung wird in diesem Aufsatz ein partielles Gleichgewichtsmodell des Schmuggels entwickelt. Dieses Modell erm?glicht es, die verschiedenen Eigenschaften des Schmuggel-Gleichgewichts zu demonstrieren. Die Hauptthesen des Aufsatzes sind, da Schmuggeln (a) den Punkt senkt, an welchem ein Zoll überflüssig wird und die heimischen Produzenten nicht mehr schützt, (b) die Gesamt-Importnachfrage bei gegebenem Zollsatz erh?ht, (c) einen gespaltenen Preis für das geschmuggelte Gut auf dem heimischen Markt herbeiführt, (d) den Protektionsgrad für die heimischen Industrien nicht beeinflussen kann, solange es legale Importe gibt, und (e) Einkommen der Regierung zugunsten von Konsumenten und Schmugglern umverteilt. Es ist ungewiβ, ob Schmuggel die Verluste, die mit der Einführung eines Zolls verbunden sind, vergr?\ern oder verringern würde.

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Resumen Un modelo de equilibrio parcial para el contrabando. — Existen muchos factures que pueden establecer un mercado para productos contrabandeados, tales como las tarifas de importatión y las cuotas, controles cambiarios e impuestos indirectes. Usando una tarifa de importatión como medio para restringir el comercio, el presente artículo desarrolla un modelo de equilibrio parcial para el contrabando. Este modelo ayuda a dar información sobre varias propiedades de un equilibrio de contrabando. Los principales argumentos del artículo son, que el contrabando (a) hace bajar el punto en el cual una tarifa se torna superflua y cesa de proteger a los oferentes domésticos, (b) aumenta la demanda total por importatión para una tasa tarifaria dada, (c) establece un sistema de precios paralelo para un mismo producto en el mercado domestico, (d) no puede afectar el grado de protectión otorgado a las industrias domésticas mientras existan importaciones legales y (e) redistribuye el ingreso del gobierno hacia los consumidores y contrabandistas. No es claro si el contrabando haría aumentar o disminuir el lastre de la pérdida asociada con la impositión de una tarifa.

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Résumé Un modèle d’équilibre partiel de fraude. — Il y a beaucoup de facteurs établissant un marché des biens introduits en fraude, comme des tarifs imposés sur les importations et des quotas, les contr?les de change et les taxes indirectes. En utilisant un tarif imposé sur les importations comme moyen des restrictions de commerce extérieur, cet article développe un modèle d’équilibre partiel de fraude. Ce modèle assiste à donner des informations sur les propriétés différentes d'équilibre de fraude. Les arguments principaux du papier sont que la fraude (a) réduit le point auquel un tarif devient redondant et cesse de protéger les offrants locaux, (b) augmente la demande d’importation totale au taux de tarif donné, (c) établit un deuxrang système de prix pour le même produit dans le marché local, (d) ne peut affectuer un dégré de protection pour les industries locales tant que les importations légales existent, et (e) rédistribue le revenu du gouvernement vers les consommateurs et les contrebandiers. Il n’est pas s?r si la fraude augmenterait ou diminuerait la propre perte associée avec l’imposition d’un tarif.

     

Welfare gains from taxation in an open economy: Applied general equilibrium results

This paper uses a general equilibrium trade model with an endogenous labour supply to analyze the effects of changes in domestic taxes. When an open economy has some sectors with scale economies, domestic tax increases may increase social welfare by causing productivity gains which more than compensate for the deadweight welfare loss of taxation.     

The welfare effects of the antebellum tariff: A general equilibrium analysis

In this paper a general equilibrium model of the United States in 1859 is developed and solved using the Scarf algorithm. Such a formulation allows the U. S. equilibrium to be computed for differing parameter specifications, so that the comparative static effects of policies involving even very complex interactions within the economy may be analyzed. In this case, the general equilibrium effects of the tariff in the United States are examined by comparing the actual, or initial, equilibrium with a hypothetical equilibrium in which the tariff has been eliminated. We find that the South was in fact injured by the tariff; the price of cotton and the return to slaveholding would have both risen significantly with its elimination. The principal beneficiary of the tariff was free labor. Removal of the tariff would have produced a decrease in the real wage and a slight fall in the return to capital. Overall, real income in the United States would have declined by 1.07 to 1.09% as a result of tariff elimination, or by between $44 and $45 million in current prices. Alternative parameter specifications may produce different results, ranging from the Metzler paradox in the case of very inelastic substitution in R.O.W. consumer demand to cases of increases in real income with tariff elimination in the cases of elastic substitution in either R.O.W. or U. S. consumer demand. A final caveat in judging the results should be inserted here. Factor endowments for 1859 are taken as fixed. The comparative static results here answer the question: What would have the 1859 United States been like if the tariff had been eliminated, allowing time for full adjustment? No dynamic effects are taken into account, such as adjustments in factor supplies. Consequently, the 1859 United States that had consistently followed a free trade policy would have looked quite different from the one that pursued a policy of protection and then eliminated the tariff, which we consider here.     

投资均衡模型在语言学习中的应用

语言作为一种人力资本在当今社会生产中发挥着越来越重要的作用,劳动者对于语言技能的投资也不断地增加。文章在人力资本投资一般模型的基础上,研究语言投资的个人成本和收益的具体成分和变化情况,并解释语言学习投资额递增的原因。另外,根据语言学习与其他人力资本相比的特殊性,文章对一般模型的局限性做出了分析和改进。基于以上结论,政府应重视语言教育的发展,劳动者应自觉提高自身的语言掌握水平和技能。     

A nash equilibrium model of campaign spending

Conclusion This paper has presented a Nash equilibrium model of campaign spending. The equilibrium is always stable and it possesses sensible comparative static properties. Spending in equilibrium depends on the scale parameter of the vote-share production function and on the intensities of preference for marginal vote share by the two candidates. Thus, campaigns which turn into spending wars are characterized by large values of both candidates' intensities of preference for vote share.     

The impact of removing corn subsidies in mexico: A general equilibrium assessment

This paper evaluates the impact of removing corn subsidies on the Mexican economy. More specifically, this paper employs a computable general equilibrium model of Mexico. The model will first simulate the economy's activity under the present conditions. Next, a simulation is conducted under the assumption that the present corn subsidies are reduced. The results are quite revealing. They indicate that while all income classes are initially made worse off, there is an increase in government income. These transfer payments could be targeted to displaced workers as well as the working poor who face inflationary pressures due to rising food costs. These findings also indicate that a decrease in subsidy levels will lead to a marked increase in saving and, consequently, economic investment.     

China's import duty drawback and VAT rebate policies: A general equilibrium analysis

China's duty drawbacks and value-added tax rebates play important roles in promoting exports. Simulations from a CGE model, characterized by a dual production (domestic sales and export processing) and dual import structure (imports used in export processing and for other purposes), confirm our theoretical results on China's exports that (a) such policies are generally export promoting; (b) a small part of the export expansion comes at the expense of a slight decline of the domestic activity through factor re-allocation and input substitution, whereas a larger portion of the expansion is attributed to cheaper access to foreign inputs; (c) export processors use more imported inputs and less domestic inputs; and (d) export intensive sectors are positively affected by these policies, whereas traditional agriculture sector is impacted adversely. These policies generate welfare gains for China.     

Assessing the economic impacts of the EU-Singapore FTA with a dynamic general equilibrium model

Negotiations for the EU-Singapore FTA were concluded on December 6, 2012. Given that this is the EU’s first FTA with an ASEAN member country and the second one with a major Asian trading partner after the conclusion of the EU-Korea FTA, this agreement paves the way for future FTAs with countries in the region. The goal of this paper is to quantify the economic impacts of the EU-Singapore FTA using a dynamic computable general equilibrium model. The resutls estimated in this paper suggest that the bilateral reduction of tariff and non-tariff barriers brings benefits for both sides: Singapore GDP is expected to increase by € 2.7 billion whereas the EU gains are assessed at € 550 million. In addition, EU exports to Singapore would rise by some € 1.4 billion and Singapore’s exports to the EU by some € 3.5 billion. In a complementary scenario, the current paper also assesses the value of this FTA as an insurance policy against any hypothetical tariffs hikes in Singapore to WTO bound levels. In such a “worst case” scenario, the EU-Singapore FTA will protect EU GDP from a decrease of € 350 million and prevents a loss of € 3.7 billion EU exports to Singapore.     

A computational stochastic equilibrium model of oil-importing economies

Zusammenfassung Ein computergerechtes stochastisches Gleichgewichtsmodell für ?limportierende Volkswirtschaften. — In diesem Aufsatz wird ein stochastisches makro?konomisches Gleichgewichtsmodell konstruiert, um die unterschiedlichen Konsequenzen zu untersuchen, die von unerwarteten bzw. erwarteten ?lpreisschocks ausgehen. Charakteristisch für das Modell ist, daΒ es Rückwirkungen von auΒen ausdrücklich zul?Βt. Es wird eine Sensitivit?tsanalyse durchgeführt, um die unterschiedlichen Reaktionen je nach dem AusmaΒ der Offenheit auf der Nachfrage- und Angebotsseite der in- und ausl?ndischen Volkswirtschaften aufzuzeigen. Der Aufsatz behandelt auΒerdem das Problem der optimalen Reaktion der Geldpolitik auf importierte ?lpreisst?rungen.

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Résumé Un modèle stochastique et computational des économies importateurs de pétrole. — Dans cet article l’auteur construit un système stochastique de macroéquilibre pour analyser les implications différentes des chocs de prix pétrolier attendus vers ceux qui ne sont pas attendus. Le trait caractéristique du modèle est que les effets de répercussion étrangère sont explicitement incorporés. L’auteur applique ce cadre á conduire une analyse de sensitivité en regard du degré d’ouverture que les économies locales et étrangères manifestent en ce qui concerne la demande ainsi que l’offre. De plus l’auteur discute la nature de la ?réaction? optimum monétaire aux les perturbations de prix de pétrole importé.

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Resumen Un modelo de equilibrio computacional y estocástico de economías importadoras de petroleo. — En este articulo se construye un marco estocastico de macroequilibrio para analizar las implicaciones diferenciadoras de shocks de precios no esperados versus esperados. Una caracteristica clave del modelo es que los efectos de repercusión externa son explicitamente incorporados. El marco se utiliza para efectuar analisis de sensitividad con respecta a la apertura por el lado de la demanda o el lado de la oferta tanto para la economia doméstica como externa. El articulo también discute la naturaleza de la ?reaction? monetaria optima frente a las perturbaciones de precios del petroleo importadas.

     

The carbon tax game: Differential tax recycling in a two-region general equilibrium model of the European community

The Carbon Tax Game: Differential Tax Recycling in a Two-Region General Equilibrium Model of the European Community. —This paper examines how the impact of an EC-wide carbon/energy tax on the economic performance of one country is influenced by the way in which the tax is recycled in that particular country and in other countries. The paper utilizes a computable general equilibrium model of (West)Germany and the rest of the EC to analyze any pair-wise combination of four different ways of revenue recycling. A key finding is that the exports of Germany are strongly influenced by the recycling behavior of the rest of EC, and vice versa. These impacts carry over to the different sectors of the economy, depending on their exposure to international competition.     

减税,企业年终收大礼

位于青岛市崂山区的一家高新技术公司年前收到了一份特殊的礼物:2008年的企业所得税大幅减少,员工们的年终红包也因此厚实了不少.