银行信贷信息不对称与风险防范

本文认为银企之间贷前信息不对称是银行贷款风险的主要原因;通过对信息不对称形成原因的分析,提出了防范银行贷款风险应采取的措施。     

The value of institutions for financial markets: evidence from emerging markets

This paper investigates the value of political institutions for financial markets, using panel data from emerging market countries. We test the hypothesis that changes in political institutions, such as improvements in democratic rights and increased government accountability, have a direct effect on sovereign interest rate spreads. We find that financial markets value institutions over and above the economic and fiscal outcomes these institutions shape. Democracy and accountability generally lower sovereign spreads, political risk tends to increase them, and financial markets view election years negatively.     

商业银行住房贷款流动性风险的隐患及对策分析

商业银行住房贷款一直以来被认为是风险低、收益稳定、兼具社会效益的优质资产。但随着近几年住房贷款的飞速发展，其潜在的风险日益增大，且日益趋向明显化。流动性风险就是其中一种重要的风险。因为我国目前住房贷款的二级市场还处在初创阶段，住房贷款的债权不易变现，这就为银行带来流动性的问题。所谓住房贷款的流动性风险，是指贷款人持有的住房贷款债权不易变现，而导致银行无力为资产的增加或负债的减少提供融资.     

Financial markets and the current account: emerging Europe versus emerging Asia

Financial globalisation has been associated with divergent current account patterns in emerging markets. In this paper we test for the relevance of financial market characteristics in explaining different current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia. We find that better developed and more integrated financial markets increase emerging markets’ ability to borrow abroad. The degree of financial integration within the convergence clubs as well as the extent of reserve accumulation are found to be the most significant factors to explain divergent current account patterns in emerging Europe and emerging Asia.     

新兴市场国家金融危机原因浅析

新兴市场国家经济在过去的20年里取得了举世瞩目的成就,但自20世纪90年代开始,其却频频受到金融危机的冲击:1994年的墨西哥危机、1997年的东南亚危机、1998年的俄罗斯危机、2001年的阿根廷危机。这反映了新兴市场国家在金融全球化进程中的脆弱性。本文主要详细分析新兴市场国     

Oligopoly in loan and deposit markets: an econometric application to the Netherlands

Summary This paper presents evidence on the degree of oligopoly in Dutch loan and deposit markets. Using cointegration tests, dynamic specifications are developed for the demand for mortgages, the supply of savings deposits and the associated interest rates. Simultaneous estimation of this model over the period 1957–1990 reveals that in recent years, both markets were significantly more oligopolistic than in Cournot equilibrium. However, competition for mortgages has significantly intensified since the late 1950s. The degree of oligopoly in the market for savings deposits, on the other hand, shows a significant rise over the sample period, probably owing to increased market concentration.This paper, which is a revised version of chapter 4 of my (unpublished) Ph.D. thesis, has greatly benefited from the comments by Lex Hoogduin, Gerard Korteweg and two anonymous referees of this journal. Thanks are also due to Coby Hogewoning and Gwan Tjia, who assisted in collecting the data. All errors and opinions are mine.     

Lessons of the crisis for emerging markets

This paper analyzes the impact of the global financial crisis on emerging markets. It argues that the crisis will have enduring implications for policy toward the development and liberalization of financial markets. In particular, emerging markets will rely (even) less on external finance and adopt a less permissive approach to foreign bank presence. In contrast, the crisis will have a much more limited impact on other aspects of globalization. More controversially, the paper argues that the crisis is unlikely to have a major impact on the structure of the international monetary system.     

Depositors’ risk perceptions and bank failure in a system with co-operative loan support

Zusammenfassung Das Risikoempfinden der Einleger und Bankzusammenbrüche im System einer gemeinsamen Kreditstützung. — In diesem Aufsatz wird versucht zu bestimmen, welche Wirkung die gemeinsame Rettungsaktion der Bank von England und der Clearing Banken auf das Vertrauen der Einleger in den britischen Geldmarkt gehabt hat. Das Vertrauen wird durch die H?he der Risikopr?mien gemessen, welche die Investoren verlangen, wenn sie Bankeinlagen anstelle von risikofreien Anlagen (Schatzwechseln) halten. Ein Modell wird spezifiziert, in dem die Risikopr?mien der Investoren mit solchen Gr?\en in eine funktionale Beziehung gebracht werden, die die Angemessenheit des Eigenkapitals, die Illiquidit?t und Mobilisierbarkeit der Anlagen sowie die Gr?\e des “Rettungsfonds” wiedergeben. Regressionsanalysen best?tigen, da\ es eine signifikante negative Beziehung gibt zwischen den bei der Rettungsaktion gew?hrten Krediten und den Risikopr?mien, die für verbriefte Termineinlagen und Interbankeinlagen verlangt werden. Im Ergebnis scheint die Bank von England recht zu haben, wenn sie behauptet, ihre Unterstützungsaktionen h?tten das Vertrauen der Einleger in das Bankensystem wiederhergestellt, jedenfalls was die gro\en Einleger betrifft. Infolgedessen kann dieses System der Zusammenarbeit als Muster für L?nder dienen, in denen die Konzentration des Bankensystems relativ hoch ist.

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Résumé Les perceptions de risque des déposants et la faillite des banques dans un système de soutien coopératif des prêts. — Cet article essaie de déterminer l’effet de l’opération conjointe de ?canot de sauvetage? de la Bank of England et des banques de clearing sur la confiance des déposants au marché monétaire du R.U. La confiance est mesurée par les primes de risques demandées par les investisseurs pour tenir des dép?ts bancaires au lieu des actifs sans risque (bons du Trésor). L’auteur spécifie un modèle dans lequel les primes de risque des déposants sont fonctionellement rapportées aux mesures de la suffisance de capital bancaire, de l’illiquidité et de la facilité d’écoulement des actifs et de la dimension du fonds de ?canot de sauvetage?. Les tests de régression confirment une relation significativement négative entre la variable de ?canot de sauvetage? et les primes de risque demandées pour les dépêts à terme (C. D.) et les dép?ts inter-bancaires. Il appara?t comme résultat que la Bank of England a raison en arguant que leurs opérations de support rétablissaient la confiance des déposants dans le système bancaire, au moins la confiance des déposants importants. Alors, cette co-opération peut servir comme format pour des actions dans des systèmes bancaires relativement concentrés.

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Resumen Percepción de riesgos de los depositanites y quiebra bancaria en un sistema con apoyo crediticio cooperativo. — Este artículo presigue determinar el efecto de la operación salvavidas de la asociación Bank of England-Clearing Bank sobre la confianza de los depositantes en el mercado monetario del Reino Unido. La confianza se mide por la envergadura de las primas de riesgo demandadas por los inversionistas para mantener depósitos bancarios en vez de activos libres de riesgo (pagarés de la Tesorería). Se especifica un modelo en el que las primas de riesgo de los depositantes se relacionan funcionalmente con medidas de suficiencia de capital bancario, iliquidez de activos, negociabilidad de activos y el tama?o del fondo salvavidas. Pruebas de regresión confirman una relación negativa significante que va desde la variable salvavidas hacia la prima de riesgo demandada sobre C. D. sterling y depósitos interbancarios. Aparece como resultado, que el Bank of England está en lo cierto al arguir que sus operaciones de apoyo restauraron la confianza de los depositantes en el sistema bancario, por lo menos en lo que respecta a la confianza de los grandes depositantes. De este modo esta cooperación puede proporcionar un formato de acción en sistemas bancarios relativamente concentrados.

     

Exchange-rate regimes for emerging markets: moral hazard and international overborrowing

This paper investigates the role of the exchange-rate regimein a simple Fisherian model of the overborrowing syndrome. Wheredomestic banks are subject to moral hazard, the choice of exchange-rateregime may have important implications for the macroeconomicstability of the economy. Banks that enjoy government guaranteeshave an incentive to increase foreign borrowing and incur foreign-exchangerisks that are underwritten by the deposit insurance system.In the absence of capital controls, this increases the magnitudeof overborrowing and leaves the economy both more vulnerableto speculative attack and more exposed to the real economicconsequences of such an attack. While 'bad' exchange-rate pegswill tend to exacerbate the problem of overborrowing in emergingmarkets, it is unclear that flexible exchange rate always dominatesfixed exchange rates. A 'good fix' - one that is credible andclose to purchasing power parity - may reduce the 'super riskpremium' in domestic interest rates and thereby narrow the marginof temptation for banks to overborrow internationally. Contraryto the current consensus regarding the lessons that should bedrawn from the Asian crisis, a good fix may better stabilizethe domestic economy while limiting moral hazard in the bankingsystem.     

Proximity,information, and loan pricing in internal capital markets: Evidence from China

We examine the effect of geographic proximity on loan pricing in internal capital markets by focusing on the role of information. Using a hand-collected dataset on entrusted loans within business groups in China, we find that loan prices are positively associated with the distance between borrowers and lenders, which suggests that a reduction in distance facilitates the monitoring of borrowers and gathering of soft information by lenders. Results remain unchanged after controlling for potential endogeneity. Our findings are further pronounced (1) for lenders with headquarters that are time constrained; (2) during the early years of our sample period, when the Internet and transportation infrastructure were less developed; and (3) for borrowers for whom information uncertainty is likely to be substantial and soft information is likely to be valuable, such as young borrowers and borrowers in different industries to lenders. This paper sheds new light on the role of geographic proximity in intra-group loans within business groups.     

Bank market concentration and bank efficiency in the European Union: a panel Granger causality approach

The relationships between bank market consolidation and bank efficiency are of particular relevance in the European Union (EU), but they remain controversial. Using a panel Granger causality approach, this paper contributes to the literature, testing not only the causality running from bank market concentration to bank efficiency, but also the reverse causality running from efficiency to concentration. The results obtained confirm the relative complexity of these causality relationships, although they generally point to a negative causation running both from concentration to efficiency and from efficiency to concentration. These findings are in line with the Structure Conduct Performance (SCP) paradigm and the suggestions that the increase of the banks’ market power will contribute to inefficiency, since these banks will face less competition to obtain more output results with less input costs. Our results suggest that within this panel of all 27 EU countries over a relatively long time period, from 1996 to the onset of the 2008 financial crisis, the more cost-efficient commercial and savings banks operated in less concentrated markets.     

Broadening access to land markets: Financing emerging farmers in South Africa

This article reports on a pilot survey of commercial farms acquired by disadvantaged people in the province of Kwazulu‐Natal, and describes a recent financial strategy to improve access to land. The survey tested a sampling technique to gather information about the rate of land redistribution, the source of terms and conditions of loans used to finance land, and the nature of property rights, managerial arrangements and land use patterns on farms acquired by disadvantaged people. It was estimated that only 0,09 per cent of the farmland available for redistribution was transferred to disadvantaged people during 1995. This low rate of transfer was attributed largely to legislation regulating the subdivision of farmland, and liquidity problems created by traditional mortgage loans. Recent experiments involving mortgage loans with graduated repayment schedules have helped to address the cashflow problem. However, these financial innovations, funded largely by the private sector, are not widely available and their impact is constrained by the Subdivision of Agricultural Land Act. It is recommended that the government amend or scrap this Act, and include financial strategies used by the private sector in its own range of land redistribution programmes.     

Foreign bank lending and information asymmetries in China: Empirical evidence from the syndicated loan market

This paper considers whether information asymmetries affect the willingness of foreign banks to participate in syndicated loans to corporate borrowers in China. We analyze how ownership concentration, which influences information asymmetries in the relationship between the borrower and the lender, exerts an impact on the participation of foreign banks in syndicated loans granted to Chinese borrowers in the period 2004–2009. We observe that greater ownership concentration of the borrowing firm does not positively influence participation of foreign banks in the loan syndicate. We conclude that information asymmetries are not exacerbated for foreign banks relative to local banks in China.     

职教质量影响因素及其结构方程模型应用

文章在对职业教育的重要性进行阐述、对结构方程模型及其特性与优缺点进行详尽分析的基础上,分析了职教质量的影响因素,并提出可以将结构方程模型进行改进,将其简练化、适用化、可操作化。定量定性分析了各职教质量影响因素,分析列举职教质量评价指标,并建立起指标体系,归纳出一个综合评价指标,构建了一个适用、简便、可行的职教管理质量评价模型来进行职业教育教学管理。     

Central bank communication and correlation between financial markets: Canada and the United States

We study the correlation between pairs of bond and stock markets in Canada and the United States between January 1998 and December 2009 in the framework of diagonal-BEKK models. Our research question is whether monetary policy actions and communications by the Bank of Canada and the Federal Reserve significantly affect the conditional co-movement of financial markets (i) within Canada and (ii) between Canada and the United States. We find that central bank communication significantly increases the correlation of financial markets within and across the two countries and is particularly important for the correlation of Canadian and US long-term interest rates.     

Diversify and prosper: Peasant households participating in emerging markets in northeast rural China

Following the sequence of radical rural reforms commencing in 1978, many peasant households in the People's Republic of China (PRC) have been actively diversifying away from time-honored grain production. This article examines the microlevel rewards accruing to a sample of village households located in the northeast province of Liaoning. In particular, we identify and then measure how such diversification affects household income, the level of employment, and the returns to labor. Two explanatory variables are constructed as surrogates for income-source diversification in a series of household production functions. Our results provide robust evidence that households that move from grain enhance significantly several indicators of their economic well-being.     

Estimating time-varying currency betas with contagion: New evidence from developed and emerging financial markets

This paper examines the conditional time-varying currency betas from five developed and six emerging financial markets with contagion and spillover effects. We employ a trivariate asymmetric BEKK-type GARCH-in-Mean (MGARCH-M) approach to estimate the time-varying conditional variance and covariance of returns of stock market index, the world market portfolio and bilateral exchange rate between the US dollar and the local currency. The results show that the world market and currency risks are not only priced in the stock markets, but also time-varying. It is found that currency betas are much more volatile than the world market betas, and currency betas in the emerging markets are more volatile than those in the developed markets. We find empirical evidence of contagion effect and spillovers between stock market and foreign exchange market during the recent global financial crisis, and the effect is stronger in the emerging markets than that in the developed markets. Two applications are provided to illustrate the usefulness of time-varying currency betas.