The impact of China’s WTO accession on trade and economic relations across the Taiwan Strait

This paper evaluates the impact of China’s World Trade Organisation (WTO) accession on trade and economic relations across the Taiwan Strait and its implications for the rest of the world by a recursive dynamic, 17‐region, 25‐sector computable general equilibrium (CGE) model according to actual market access commitments that China and Taiwan have made to date. The simulation results show that both China and Taiwan will substantially benefit from their WTO memberships, and their economic interdependence and their dependence within the rest of the world will further deepen. The rest of the world may also benefit because of the expansion of world trade and improvement of their international terms of trade, but some developing countries with an endowment structure similar to China, like those in South America and Southeast Asia, may experience keener competition in labour‐intensive exports and lower prices for their products. JEL classification: F1, F02, C68, P52.     

The sequencing of reform policies in China's agricultural transition*

This paper provides evidence regarding gains due to agricultural market liberalization in China. We empirically identify the different effects that incentive and farm restructuring reforms and gradual market liberalization have on China's agricultural economy during its transition period. We find that average gains within the agricultural sector due to reforms that improved incentives and increased decision‐making authority of producers exceed gains due to market liberalization by a large margin. Our method of analyzing the effects of transition policies on economic performance can be generalized to other reform paths in other transition economies.     

WTO accession,trade expansion,and air pollution: Evidence from China’s county‐level panel data

This study provides evidence that trade expansion has contributed to the degradation of air pollution in China. On the basis of different responses of counties’ trade to China's World Trade Organization accession at the end of 2001, we exploit air pollution data from NASA to construct a difference‐in‐differences predicted trade as an instrument for our identification. We document statistically significant and robust evidence on trade expansion, which accounts for approximately 60% and 20% for the increase of PM_2.5 and SO₂, respectively, in China. Findings on trade pollution relation are robust to various tests. Deterioration in the environment is mainly driven by scale and trade in polluting sectors.     

An empirical evaluation of China’s monetary policies

This paper investigates the responsiveness of the Chinese government’s monetary policies in terms of the money supply and interest rates to economic conditions and the effectiveness of these policies in achieving the goals of stimulating economic growth and controlling inflation. We analyze the responsiveness and effectiveness by estimating the Taylor rule, the McCallum rule, and a vector autoregressive model using quarterly data in the period of 1992-2009. The results show that, overall, the monetary policy variables respond to economic growth and the inflation rate, but the magnitudes of the responses are much weaker than those observed in market economies. Money supply responded actively to both the inflation rate and the real output and had certain effects on the future inflation rates and real output. The official interest rates, on the other hand, responded passively to the inflation rate and did not respond to the real output. They do not have any effect on future inflation rates and real output either.     

WTO农产品贸易制度改革障碍、前景与启示

始于2000年的多哈农业谈判至今已艰难曲折地走过了9个年头仍未实现既定目标,在主要发达成员就关键谈判问题互不相让的背后,其内部的政治原因在左右着谈判的进程和走向。本文从政治经济学视角对WTO农产品贸易制度改革的障碍与前景进行分析判断,最后提出中国的对策建议。     

The impact of China's accession to the WTO on its economy: an imperfect competitive CGE analysis

To examine the impact of trade barrier reductions on the Chinese economy following its WTO accession, a single‐country, static CGE (Computable General Equilibrium) model is constructed, which incorporates certain elements of imperfect competition in China's current economic situation. China's real GDP and total employment are expected to rise by small degrees, while the general price level may decline by a few percentage points. Total imports would rise by more than 10%, whereas total exports would increase far less. China's trade surplus is, therefore, likely to shrink substantially and its dependence upon foreign trade is likely to rise by a few percentage points. A sensitivity analysis confirms the robustness of the simulation results. A comparison with other CGE studies on China's trade liberalization also shows the plausibility of this study's predictions.

JEL Classification: F17, C68     

Russia's accession to the WTO: the potential for trade increase

This paper investigates the impact of institutions on trade and estimates the potential for trade increase between the Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) and the European Union (EU). The latter is computed from a gravity equation using the procedure introduced by Hausman and Taylor [1981. Panel Data and Unobservable Individual Effects. Econometrica 49 (6) 1377–1398]. We find that CIS trade is still characterized by a large trade diversion effect, which implies that trade with non-CIS countries could increase considerably in the long run. Another source of deepening the level of the European trade integration comes from the convergence of institutions towards the EU standards in light of Russia's application to join the WTO. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 680–699.     

银行业放松管制的理论分析与宏观效果——兼论中国加入WTO对大陆和香港的影响

本文建立了一个包含银行、消费者和生产者的三部门一般均衡模型 ,获得了短期均衡和长期均衡条件 ,分析了存贷差扩大和国有银行改革的关系。本文有两个重要理论发现 :一个是发现了用于短期分析的D 曲线和G 曲线。另一个是发现了长期稳定均衡状态对国有银行体制改革和长期经济增长的含意。理论分析表明 ,银行业实行资产负债比例管理与利率的严格控制存在矛盾 ;中国加入WTO后 ,银行业放松管制 ,引入竞争 ,不仅能推动中国大陆的GDP、投资、消费和储蓄的增长 ,而且可以缓解通货紧缩压力 ;但是国有银行的垄断利润将下降。中国加入WTO将给香港的银行部门带来新的发展机会。     

The gender wage gap among China’s rural–urban migrants

In this study, we present new empirical evidence on gender wage differences among rural–urban migrants in China. We use a data set that includes migrants residing in urban communities and those living at their workplaces—the latter were not included in the previous studies. We find that the gender wage gap among migrants is 16%–18% and does not differ between migrants living at workplaces and those living in urban communities. However, gender differences in industry sorting play a more important role for migrants living at their workplaces, whereas differences in education and experience are of importance for those living in urban communities. Overall, differences in the returns to characteristics are the main driver of the gender wage gap, especially for migrants living in urban communities.     

WTO与竞争政策的冲突--论WTO下个人权利的缺失

尽管关税壁垒已经被大大消除,但反竞争行为如果得不到规制将会成为阻碍国际贸易自由化发展的新壁垒,使得贸易政策和竞争政策的冲突和矛盾愈发突出。由于贸易政策和竞争政策调整对象的不同以及基本理念和价值取向不同,尤其是对个人权利的不同关注,决定了两者在最终追求目标相互补之外的不完全相容性。现有的世界贸易组织所规范的贸易行为并没有涉及和考虑竞争政策尤为重视的经济活动参与者及其商业行为,尽管世界贸易组织协定中已有一些初步的竞争规则,但贸易政策和竞争政策的协调前景并不乐观。     

入世与中国农业发展

中国加入WTO使农业面临一个新的发展阶段和新的国际环境，在这个新环境和新阶段中如何抓住入世机遇，积极应对挑战，是中国农业发展必须面对的问题。     

The driving forces behind China’s growth1

The main objective of this article is to disentangle the determinants of the Chinese economic growth that occurred from 1965 to 2000. We have explored, first, the time series properties of the growth rates of gross domestic product and labour productivity with an extended battery of unit‐root tests. Then, in a multivariate setting, we use the VAR model methodology to provide evidence that physical and human capital accumulation, R&D expenditure, openness and competitiveness are the main drivers of output, labour productivity and total factor productivity growth in the long run. Additionally, we also show that although China has not yet converged to its long‐run equilibrium, it is in the process of catching up. These results are more consistent with some versions of the endogenous growth models than with Solow‐type models of growth, since they support active strategies of economic policy to stimulate economic growth and catching up with more advanced economies.     

世界贸易组织(WTO)确立与发展的基础

世界贸易组织(以下简称世贸组织)确立与发展的基础是有节制的自由贸易理论,市场经济体制,经济全球化,可持续发展和国际经贸利益的协调。     

New Protagonists in Global Economic Governance: Brazilian Agribusiness at the WTO

The existing international economic order has been heavily shaped by US power and the US has been a key driver of globalisation and neoliberal economic restructuring, prompting speculation about whether the rise of new developing country powers could rupture the current trajectory of neoliberal globalisation. This paper analyses the case of Brazil at the World Trade Organization (WTO), a core institution in global economic governance. In the last decade, Brazil successfully waged two landmark trade disputes against the US and EU and created a coalition of developing countries – the G20 – which brought an end to the dominance of the US and EU at the WTO and made their trade policies a central target of the Doha Round. Brazil's activism has been widely hailed as a major victory for developing countries. However, I argue that rather than challenging the neoliberal agenda of the WTO, Brazil has emerged as one of the most vocal advocates of free market globalisation and the push to expand and liberalise global markets. I show that Brazil's stance has been driven by the rise of its export-oriented agribusiness sector. This case demonstrates that business actors from the Global South are becoming significant new protagonists in global economic governance; they are taking the tools created by the states and corporations of the Global North – in this case, the WTO and its neoliberal discourse – and turning them against their originators. At the same time, their interests are being wrapped in and advanced through a discourse of development and social justice and a strategic mobilisation of the politics of the North-South divide.     

加入WTO十年的中国农产品贸易与竞争力问题研究

中国已成为世界农产品贸易大国。在农产品加入WTO十年中,由于成功地运用了两个市场,两种资源的互补性发展格局,带来了农产品贸易额不断增长的可喜局面,但另一方面,由于对外依存度越来越大,农产品国际竞争力整体不强等原因,中国农产品的未来发展仍面临种种问题,因而,制定相应政策目标和政策优化显得极为重要。     

中国农产品贸易现状及对策分析

中国是世界主要的农产品生产国与出口国,也是重要的农产品消费大国。农产品的生产、流通与消费水平决定了中国的国民经济发展水平。随着全球经济的发展,尤其是加入WTO後,中国的农产品贸易面临着前所未有的挑战。中国的农产品在国际市场上竞争力下降,出口屡屡碰壁,面临诸多制约因素。因此只有从政府、农民与企业等多方面进行调整才能促进中国农产品贸易更好地发展。     

入世对我国证券市场发展的影响与对策

中国加入世贸组织是顺应经济全球化的趋势，迅速融入世界经济潮流的必然选择。入世后，我国的证券市场将会面临更大的挑战。为此，我们必须从我国的证券市场的实际出发，采取相应的措施，以适应证券对外开放的需要。     

The impacts of China’s exchange rate regime reform in 2005: A counterfactual analysis

This paper empirically evaluates the impacts of China’s exchange rate regime reform in 2005 on its macroeconomy. We propose to use a new counterfactual policy evaluation method that is robust to the choice of control group. Using the new method, we find that China’s exchange rate regime reform in 2005 mildly reduces the Consumer Price Index, has a substantial damping effect on export, significantly increases employment, and has negligible impact on industrial production.     

试析"入世"后的中国并购市场

并购作为企业实现资源配置进而谋求做大做强的一种手段和途径，入世后也在中国得到了较为明显的发展，并正在逐步发展成为一个年轻的市场。借鉴国外并购的历史经验，分析中国企业的并购现状。探讨并购市场建设已成为需要研究的重要课题。