Impact of the GST and Wine Tax Reform on Australia’s Wine Industry: A CGE Analysis

This study analyses the impacts of the Goods and Services Tax (GST) introduced on 1 July 2000, and the associated wine tax reform, on both the premium and non‐premium segments of the grape and wine industry using a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model of the Australian economy. Through input cost reductions, the grape and wine industry is projected to gain from the GST tax package. Thus the industry can still gain even though wine consumption is taxed a little more heavily after than before the introduction of the GST. This is particularly so for the export‐oriented premium wine segment. A switch from the current ad valorem to a revenue‐neutral volumetric tax on wine under the GST is shown also to favour the premium segment of the industry, but at the expense of the non‐premium segment.     

TRADE BARRIERS IN THE PACIFIC FOREST SECTOR: WHO WINS AND WHO LOSES

This study uses a global model of the forest sector to examine changes in log production, consumption, prices, and trade and discusses the impacts of changes on economic wealth transfers for log export ban and log export tax scenarios. The results indicate that trade barriers are inefficient in allocating logs to domestic processors when a supply shortage exists. The trade barrier produces economic losses that exceed the benefits to the processors. A log export ban reduces log prices in the Pacc North-west by 8.5% and reduces timber harvests by 6.7%. The logs diverted to domestic mills save 1,208 more jobs than log export job losses but at an average annual cost of £230,463 per job saved. Economic transfers benefit lumber producers in the region under the ban. However, the benefits amount to 61% of regional timber producer losses including losses in the log export price premium, 39% of the loss to Asian processors, and 55% of the global consumer losses. Globally, lumber consumers lose £733 million. A log export tax scenario produces smaller impacts on prices and harvests since it does not eliminate total log exports. The tax scenario saves no jobs, and the average economic gain per job lost is £24,251 or about two-thirds of the current average salary in the forest products sector in the region. A log tax has the ability to retain £78 million in tax revenues.     

Key market values for bottled wine in an emerging market: product attributes or business strategy?

ABSTRACT

This article focuses on the emerging bottled Chilean red wine market and studies the main determinants of the consumer price of wine sold on the domestic market. A hedonic price function was estimated for a sample of 810 wines using a quantile regression (QR) model. The database contains three variable groups to explain price: objective variables (national, international and vine quality designations), subjective variables (wine score) and business strategies used by wine producers. Results show that some objective variables have a greater impact on price than the wine score (a subjective variable) and business strategies, which vary for each quartile of prices analysed. Finally, this information will allow companies to design and implement marketing strategies to inform the consumer about the importance of some variables in the price of their product.     

The determinants of production-related carbon emissions in West Germany, 1985–1990: assessing the role of technology and trade

This paper examines the determinants of the substantial decline of West German production-related carbon intensity in the face of falling energy prices. A computable general equilibrium model is used to determine the simulated effects of observed changes of world energy prices and domestic energy policy on the sectoral patterns of carbon emissions, energy consumption, output, value-added and other indicators of structural change. The structural changes not accounted for by energy prices and energy policy are attributed to changing patterns of productivity growth in Germany and the rest of the world (ROW) and changing patterns of ROW demand. Weights on these driving forces are selected by least squares. One key finding is that the contribution of ROW productivity and demand patterns to emission-relevant structural change unaccounted for by energy prices and energy policy is just under 30%. The remainder is split almost equally among patterns of domestic autonomous energy efficiency improvement and domestic labor efficiency patterns.     

Modelling prices and the reputation of individual named wines

This article develops empirical models to assess the relation between the reputation of an individual named wine and its price. Unrestricted and polynomial distributed lag models are used to assess the impact of past expert quality ratings on the prices of Australian premium wines. Results point to the practical unimportance of current wine quality scores impacting prices and suggest that quality score lag effects up to six years may be important. The largest individual lagged impact of quality on price is estimated to occur at approximately two years, and prices are estimated to increase by more than 10% over six years for a one-point quality score increase. A procedure for identifying potential wine price bargains based on a comparison of price predictions from estimated wine reputation and current quality measures is illustrated. The implications of the findings for wine producers are also discussed.     

A low growth path in Austria: potential causes,consequences and policy options

This paper reports on an Austrian research project that deals with the question how the Austrian society could cope with long-lasting low economic growth. Various causes of low-growth that are relevant for Austria (a deteriorating balance of trade, increasing resource prices, consumer restraint of households and less immigration) have been identified, leading to an only moderate gross domestic product growth of 0.55 % per year. The resulting impact on the economy is substantial: the labour market suffers from a shortage of labour supply (due to reduced migration) and from a reduced demand for labour (due to reduced demand in consumption, investments and exports). Subsequently, less employment decreases the development of the disposable income of private households (tax rates and social security contributions held constant). Related to this, public debt is higher due to reduced tax incomes and slightly growing public expenditures. From an ecological perspective, resource consumption increases at a slower rate, however, no absolute reduction can be reached. CO₂ emissions also slightly increase. Therefore, it cannot be assumed that low growth necessarily leads to the achievement of energy and environmental policy goals. Based on these results, a policy scenario was used to analyze whether and how policy measures are able to cope with the negative consequences of persistent low growth. The results reveal that the selected measures are suitable to reduce negative economic effects: The implementation of reduced working time and an eco-social reform of levies might improve the labour market situation. The negative effects on the national budget can be diminished by a reduction of environmentally harmful subsidies. Induced behaviour changes of private households can reduce energy and resource-intensive consumption.     

UNDERSTANDING THE WORLD WOOL MARKET: TRADE,PRODUCTIVITY AND GROWERS’ INCOMES*

Applying recent estimates of total factor productivity (TFP) growth on Australian sheep farms, we analyse the long‐run effects of TFP growth on the world wool market using a detailed model of the world wool market that treats raw wool, wool textiles and wool garments as heterogeneous commodities. The model divides the world wool market into nine regions and eight major industrial sectors capturing the extreme nature of the multistage production system through which wool passes. We find that regional sheep producer's welfare responds by between ‐0.9 per cent and 0.7 per cent assuming conservative TFP growth over the period 1995/96–2003/04. Sensitivity analysis shows the welfare effects to be robust with respect to all model parameters, but sensitive to the size of the TFP growth and the degree of TFP spill‐over. Our realistic representation of the multistage nature of the wool production system shows that wool inputs steadily decline in importance in moving from early‐ to late‐stage processing. This production structure indicates that the productivity of sheep farmers has little effect on the prices of and demand for wool garments. In contrast, trade in wool inputs is very responsive to the productivity of sheep farmers.     

资源税计征方式的探讨

随着近几年国际、国内资源价格的过快变动,资源税从量计征的局限性凸显。十八届三中全会提出要加快资源税改革,实行资源有偿使用制度和生态补偿制度。为此,探讨资源税从价计征的改革就显得尤为重要。在对资源税从量定额征收与从价定率征收方式的比较分析后,认为应针对不同资源的供求状况,对于供求状况不稳定、同质产品价格差异较大、计量单位不规范的消费品,按从价定率方式征收;对于供求基本平衡、同质产品价格差异不大、计量单位规范的消费品,按从量定额方式征收。但作为总体趋势,应更多地采用从价税形式的资源税。     

The Dynamic Effects of the US Productivity Boom on Australia*

How has the USA's ‘new economy’ productivity boom affected Australia? We consider this question using a dynamic multisector growth model of the Australian and US economies. We find that productivity growth in the US durables sector generates small but important gains to Australia. We find that the transmission of growth is generated through increased export demand for agriculture. Consequently, the USA's productivity growth tends to favour Australia's traditional export sectors. Likewise, it increases the relative demand for less skilled labour in Australia and reduces the demand for more skilled labour and higher education.     

Smoke screen: Estimating the tax pass‐through to cigarette prices in Pakistan

This article estimates and compares the speed and magnitude of the tax pass‐through across major cigarette brands at different price points (budget, mainstream, and premium) in Pakistan by using a novel dataset of monthly observations on cigarette prices in 50 cities during the period 2004 to 2015. The empirical analysis indicates that the pass‐through of cigarette taxes to the final consumer price is fast but incomplete in Pakistan. The pass‐through coefficient is estimated to be in the range of 70 to over 90 percent across four major cigarette brands, and most of the pass‐through occurs contemporaneously within a period of 2 months. The results imply that a 1‐Pakistan rupee (PR ) increase in taxation leads to an increase of PR s 0.8, on average, in cigarette prices. In other words, cigarette taxes are undershifted to consumers in Pakistan. With respect to the tax pass‐through at different price tiers (budget, mainstream, and premium), I find significant variation in the pass‐through coefficient, which is close to one for the premium cigarette brand and significantly lower for the budget and mainstream cigarette brands.     

The impact of productivity and demand shocks on structural dynamics: Evidence from Austrian manufacturing

Based on Pasinetti's model of structural dynamics we develop an empirical identification strategy for aggregate and sectoral labor productivity and demand shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model with long-run restrictions. Impulse response analysis shows that we can distinguish four patterns of the effects of changes in demand and productivity growth on sectoral output growth. For some industries demand is indeed the factor driving sectoral growth. Labor productivity and demand shocks are closely associated with the growth rates of employment and output across industries. However, there is less correlation with entry and exit. This suggest that structural change within and between industries may have quite different determinants.     

Wine Tax Reform: The Impact of Introducing a Volumetric Excise Tax for Wine

The recent Henry tax review recommended substantial changes to Australian alcohol taxation policy. Here, the implications for the Australian wine industry of the Henry tax review's recommendations are explored using a computable general equilibrium model. The results show that: (i) replacement of the Wine Equalisation Tax (WET) with a revenue‐neutral volumetric excise tax would have a small negative impact on the wine industry; (ii) removal of the WET rebate would have a substantial negative impact on small wineries; and (iii) applying the packaged beer excise rate across all alcoholic beverages would have a notable negative impact on the wine industry.     

Money Demand and Purchasing Power Parity (PPP), in the Republic of South Africa

We have examined empirically two important economic relationships, the Purchasing Power Parity (PPP) and the money demand relationship, among the consumer prices, money, output, interest rates, and the nominal rand/dollar exchange rate of the Republic of South Africa (RSA) for the sample period from 1993 second quarter to 2003 second quarter within the frameworks of co-integration and Error Correction Model (ECM). It is established that the strong version of the PPP including the proportionality and the symmetry hypothesis, is supported. The changes in the rand/dollar exchange rates are influenced by the long term trends in the consumer prices of the RSA and the USA. There also exists a well defined money demand function for this period. The broad money demand is influenced by the consumer prices, the GDP and the interest rates. The short-term interest rates are found to be the own rate of return for broad money and the long-term bond yield is the opportunity cost of holding money. The monetary policy works through the short term interest rates.

     

Hedonic Wine Price Functions and Measurement Error

Accumulated theoretical and empirical evidence suggests that wine prices depend on quality, reputation and objective characteristics. Unlike previous studies, we recognize that quality and reputation are latent constructs and therefore employ factor analysis and 2SLS techniques to consistently estimate hedonic prices in the presence of attributes measured with error. The application to Australian premium wines points to significant reputation effects but insignificant quality effects. It is also illustrated that inappropriately using standard OLS procedures can seriously distort the statistical significance of attributes, the implicit marginal attribute prices, and the predictions of 'average' prices for a given set of characteristics.     

Government expenditure,external and domestic public debt,and economic growth

This paper analyzes the relationship between government expenditure, tax on returns to assets, public debt, and growth in an endogenous growth model. Public debt is composed of two components, domestic debt and external debt. We show conditions for existence, uniqueness, and multiplicity of the steady states. More precisely, existence of steady state requires a sufficiently high productivity and a sufficiently low tax on returns to assets. We also provide the effects of an increase in the tax rate on returns to assets on the steady state. In particular, the relation between public spending and the tax rate has a bell shape. Domestic debt unambiguously increases with tax whereas external debt displays an inverted U‐shaped curve. A high tax rate leads to a reallocation of public debt in favor of domestic debt (to the detriment of external debt). The effect of taxation on consumption (and production) also displays a nonlinear pattern when the output elasticity of capital is lower than unity (the effect is monotonously increasing if this elasticity is unity). We also derive the conditions under which a tax increase can boost or reduce the balanced growth rate.     

Distance Decay in the Willingness to Pay for Wine: Disentangling Local and Organic Attributes

This paper investigates how the residents of a French wine-producing region value the attributes of wine. We elicit the willingness-to-pay (WTP) for organic/non-organic and local/non-local wines with increasing levels of information on the impact of agricultural practices at both global and local scales. The analysis shows that there is a significant organic premium associated with both local and non-local wines. This organic premium significantly increases with information and significantly decreases with the distance between the consumer’s home and the vineyard. Based on the econometric predictions of the WTP, we show that a per-unit tax on non-organic wines or a standard imposing organic practices increases welfare through the internalization of the attributes revealed by the experiment.     

Project evaluation by potential tax reform

Shadow prices are derived for small open economies with several production sectors experiencing constant returns to scale. Small projects affect the balance of trade, domestic prices (of non-traded goods and factors), and sector scales. Only domestic prices affect welfare, and only if there is not ‘domestic price equalization’. Generally, a project's net benefits depend upon the potential tax (and tariff) reform made possible (or necessary) through the balance of trade effect. Border prices are right for traded goods, but domestic good shadow pricing requires knowing the direction of at least one reversible available tax reform, and presuming optimality with respect to available reforms.     

Analysing Firm‐level Price Effects for Differentiated Products: The Case of Australian Wine Producers

The paper discusses and illustrates estimation methods for identifying and modelling the influence of producers on the prices for a differentiated product. A two‐step fixed effects approach is contrasted to the random effects specification. The techniques are employed to analyse prices for over 260 Australian premium wine producers. The fixed effects specification is preferred given significant correlation between wine attributes and random producer effects. The estimation of fixed producer price effects identifies statistically significant price premiums and discounts, which average 15%. Fixed producer price effects are estimated to depend on the quality reputation of the producer, its level of experience, producer size and the use of multibrands by conglomerates. In part, results indicate that price discounts are associated with producers who have low‐quality reputations, are small and recently established.     

How may a carbon tax transform Australian electricity industry? A CGE analysis

The carbon tax policy proposed by Australian government has triggered deep concerns about the high electricity prices facing households and the sustainability of electricity industry. By employing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and an environmentally extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), this article simulates the effect of Australian carbon tax on the electricity industry. The modelling results show that the wholesale electricity prices indeed increase by about 90%, but the retailer prices only increase by 25%. The coal-fired electricity generators will reduce their output by 8% (for black-coal) to 18% (for brown-coal), but the profitability of the industry will drop dramatically. On the other hand, generators using oil, gas or renewable resources, will increase their output significantly and enjoy a handsome profit. Through the price, cost and profitability mechanisms, the carbon tax will transfer the Australian electricity generation to a low emission industry in the long term.     

STORABLE GOOD MARKET WITH INTERTEMPORAL COST VARIATIONS

We investigate a firm's dynamic pricing policy in a storable good market where the cost of production varies over time. In anticipation of a cost increase, the firm selects its prices to affect consumer storage. Price dynamics hinge upon the curvature of demand and the magnitude of the consumer storage cost. When demand is not too convex, the consumers' reluctance to store leads the firm to reduce prices to stimulate consumer storage. This shapes the firm's cost pass-through and the price commitment effects. Our analysis provides a novel explanation for the well-documented puzzling patterns of incomplete and negative cost pass-through.