DIVERGENT EXPECTATIONS AND THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS OF 1997

An important question concerning integration of global financial markets is whether local investors in an equity market react differently from international investors, particularly during periods of financial crisis. Considering local investors are closer to information, they might turn pessimistic before foreign investors before a crisis. We examine whether local investors in each of the six Asian stock markets—Indonesia, Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Taiwan, and Thailand—reacted differently from international investors during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Our empirical results indicate that, in general, closed‐end country fund share prices (mainly driven by foreign investors) Granger‐cause the respective net asset values (NAVs, mainly driven by local investors). Moreover, this one‐way Granger‐causality effect from share prices to NAVs becomes much stronger during the crisis period after controlling for U.S. stock returns. Our results suggest international investors turned pessimistic before local investors. JEL classification: G15     

MARKET SEGMENTATION AND INTERNATIONAL ASSET PRICES: EVIDENCE FROM THE LISTING OF WORLD EQUITY BENCHMARK SHARES

This article provides an empirical analysis of the announcement effect of the listing of the seventeen World Equity Benchmark Shares (WEBS) on the returns of the corresponding market index returns and closed‐end country fund premiums. I find that the announcement of the listing of the WEBS resulted in a positive market price reaction for the market indexes. Furthermore, there was a significant decline in premiums for closed‐end country funds. The findings are consistent with models of international asset pricing under market segmentation and they illustrate that the listing of internationally tradable securities is an effective mechanism for integrating international capital markets. JEL classification: G14, G15     

The Risk‐Return Relation in International Stock Markets

We investigate the risk‐return relation in international stock markets using realized variance constructed from MSCI (Morgan Stanley Capital International) daily stock price indices. In contrast with the capital asset pricing model, realized variance by itself provides negligible information about future excess stock market returns; however, we uncover a positive and significant risk‐return tradeoff in many countries after controlling for the (U.S.) consumption‐wealth ratio. U.S. realized variance is also significantly related to future international stock market returns; more importantly, it always subsumes the information content of its local counterparts. Our results indicate that stock market variance is an important determinant of the equity premium.     

Effects of Market Segmentation and Bank Concentration on Mutual Fund Expenses and Returns: Evidence from Finland

A tremendous amount of research examines US mutual funds, but fund markets also thrive in other countries. However, research about these fast growing markets is lacking. This study addresses Finnish funds. Fast growth of the Finnish fund industry, strong bank dominance in the industry and recent EU membership make it an interesting market to examine. The Finnish fund market is also of particular interest since it had the fastest growth among the EU countries during 1996–2000. We find evidence that bank‐managed and older funds charge higher expenses but investors are not compensated for paying higher expenses with higher risk‐adjusted returns, suggesting a potential agency problem. Overall, Finnish fund expenses have decreased over time, consistent with EU membership reducing market segmentation and generating competition.     

INVESTORS' DIFFERENTIAL RESPONSE TO MANAGED FUND PERFORMANCE

Several studies measuring the flow of monies into and out of U.S. mutual funds note a convexity in the performance‐flow relation and offer several explanations for the apparent investor insensitivity to poor performance. In this study investor response to past performance is measured in a different setting: the Australian wholesale funds market. The results confirm that, like the U.S. mutual fund investor, institutional investors in Australia react to recent performance. However, a similar response asymmetry is not detected in most tests. Evidence that small, young funds are potential drivers of the asymmetric response effect is also provided. JEL classification: G10, G14     

Luck versus Skill in the Cross‐Section of Mutual Fund Returns

The aggregate portfolio of actively managed U.S. equity mutual funds is close to the market portfolio, but the high costs of active management show up intact as lower returns to investors. Bootstrap simulations suggest that few funds produce benchmark‐adjusted expected returns sufficient to cover their costs. If we add back the costs in fund expense ratios, there is evidence of inferior and superior performance (nonzero true α) in the extreme tails of the cross‐section of mutual fund α estimates.     

The Role of U.S. Market on International Risk‐Return Tradeoff Relations

We study the intertemporal risk‐return tradeoff relations based on returns from 18 international markets. We find striking new empirical evidence that the inclusion of U.S. market returns significantly changes the estimated risk‐return tradeoff relations in international markets from mostly negative to predominantly positive. Our results are consistent with the lead‐lag effect between U.S. and international markets in the sense of Rapach, Strauss and Zhou.     

IS NOISE TRADER RISK PRICED?

We examine the hypothesis that closed‐end fund shareholders garner greater returns than holders of the underlying assets as compensation for bearing “noise trader risk.” We demonstrate that the returns on fund shares are more volatile and exhibit greater mean reversion than the returns on the underlying assets, consistent with the hypothesis that noise traders play a more active role in closed‐end fund shares than do the underlying assets. Inconsistent with the De Long et al. (1990) noise trader model, however, we find that after accounting for fund expenses, fund shareholders do not earn returns greater than holders of the underlying assets. JEL classification: G12     

The Halloween Effect and Japanese Equity Prices: Myth or Exploitable Anomaly

Bouman and Jacobsen (American Economic Review 92(5), 1618–1635, 2002) examine monthly stock returns for major world stock markets and conclude that returns are significantly lower during the May–October periods versus the November–April periods in 36 of 37 markets examined. They argue that, in general, the Halloween strategy outperforms the buy and hold strategy thereby casting doubt on the validity of the efficient market paradigm. More recently, Maberly and Pierce (Econ Journal Watch 1(1), 29–46, 2004) re-examine the evidence for U.S. equity prices and conclude that Bouman and Jacobsen’s results are not robust to alternative model specifications. Extending prior research, this paper examines the robustness of the Halloween strategy to alternative model specifications for Japanese equity prices. The Halloween effect is concentrated in the period prior to the introduction of Nikkei 225 index futures in September 1986. After the internationalization of Japanese financial markets in the mid-1980s, the Halloween effect disappears.JEL classification: G14, G15     

DIFFERENCES OF OPINION,OVERCONFIDENCE, AND THE HIGH‐VOLUME PREMIUM

We argue that both differences of opinion and overconfidence lead to high‐volume shocks. However, a high‐volume shock induced mainly by differences of opinion (overconfidence) will lead to superior (inferior) stock returns. Empirically, Asian financial markets, in contrast to U.S. markets, reveal weaker and inconsistent high‐volume premiums. The inconsistency may be attributable to investor's overconfidence. Additional evidence based on U.S. data supports this view, as a high‐volume shock accompanied by increased institutional ownership yields substantially higher high‐volume premiums than otherwise, and high‐volume premiums generally are much stronger in down‐market states than up‐market states.     

The reaction of the Australian financial markets to the interest rate news from the Reserve Bank of Australia and the U.S. Fed

This paper provides comprehensive evidence on the impacts of the Reserve Bank of Australia's (RBA) and the U.S. Fed's target interest rate announcement news on the Australian financial markets over the period 1998–2006. The RBA's news had a significant impact on the first moments of market returns/changes in line with a priori expectations, and the conditional volatility in most of the markets was significantly higher following the news. Asymmetric news effect is also observed for the Australian interest rates where markets tended to respond more strongly to unexpected rate rises than rate falls. While the U.S. Fed's news influenced only the USD/AUD exchange rate, the Australian market volatility was significantly lower in all market segments following the Fed's news.     

The Announcement Effects of U.S. versus non‐U.S. Bank Mergers: Do They Differ?

Non‐U.S. bank mergers are becoming an increasingly important part of the worldwide economic landscape. Are the market reactions to non‐U.S. bank mergers similar to the reaction in the United States? I address this question by examining abnormal returns of publicly traded partners on the announcement of forty‐one non‐U.S. bank mergers and comparing the returns with a U.S. control group. I find acquirers in non‐U.S. domestic bank mergers earn more and non‐U.S. targets earn less than their U.S. counterparts. However, for the subset of mergers in countries with relatively well‐developed stock markets, I find that partners earn similar returns.     

Speculators,commodities and cross-market linkages

We use a unique, non-public dataset of trader positions in 17 U.S. commodity futures markets to provide novel evidence on those markets' financialization in the past decade. We then show that the correlation between the rates of return on investible commodity and equity indices rises amid greater participation by speculators generally, hedge funds especially, and hedge funds that hold positions in both equity and commodity futures markets in particular. We find no such relationship for commodity swap dealers, including index traders (CITs). The predictive power of hedge fund positions is weaker in periods of generalized financial market stress. Our results support the notion that who trades helps predict the joint distribution of commodity and equity returns. We find qualitatively similar but statistically weaker results using a proxy for hedge fund activity based on publicly available data.     

Common Volatility: An Empirical Investigation of Closed-End Country Funds

The study of international integration of equity markets has received a great deal of interest. This paper investigates whether returns of forty-one closed-end country funds share a common volatility process with three comparable return series: the underlying net asset value (NAV), U.S. stock market returns, and foreign stock market returns. Country funds are a natural setting to test for international market integration, as they are traded in the U.S. market, whereas their underlying assets are traded in foreign stock markets. Our results indicate that only a few emerging markets' country funds share common volatility processes with their comparable asset returns. This, in turn, suggests weak linkages through the second moment of related assets.     

The “reverse” weekend effect: the U.S. market versus international markets

In this paper we find that the “reverse” weekend effect—where average Monday returns tend to be positive—is a unique feature of the U.S. market. During the time the U.S. market exhibits the reverse weekend effect, foreign markets still show the “traditional” weekend effect or no effect at all. The results persist even after we sort the data by week of the month and month of the year. We also find that in foreign markets negative Monday returns tend to follow negative Friday returns. However, in the U.S. market, positive Monday returns tend to follow positive Friday returns.     

Financial Flexibility,Bank Capital Flows,and Asset Prices

In our parsimonious general‐equilibrium model of banking and asset pricing, intermediaries have the expertise to monitor and reallocate capital. We study financial development, intraeconomy capital flows, the size of the banking sector, the value of intermediation, expected market returns, and the risk of bank crashes. Asset pricing implications include: a market's dividend yield is related to its financial flexibility, and capital flows should be important in explaining expected returns and the risk of bank crashes. Our predictions are broadly consistent with the aggregate behavior of U.S. capital markets since 1950.     

Pricing of American Depositary Receipts under Market Segmentation

This article examines the pricing of American Depositary Receipts (ADRs) in a three-factor pricing model. A seemingly unrelated regression model is utilized to test the nonlinear parameter restriction implied by the model. It is found that, although ADRs are traded in the U.S. securities market, their returns are significantly affected by their respective home market factors rather than by U.S. market movements. While U.S. investors are exposed to incremental risk from foreign equity market, they do not command a risk premium. The findings suggest that (1) markets are segmented and ADR listing does not integrate world capital market and (2) ADRs behave more like a foreign security and ADR is an effective tool of global risk diversification for U.S. investors.     

A comprehensive investigation on the predictive power of economic policy uncertainty from non-U.S. countries for U.S. stock market returns

This study uses economic policy uncertainty (EPU) indices for ten developed countries, three diffusion models, and five combination methods to forecast excess returns in the U.S. stock market. It shows empirically that, over the period January 1997 to January 2022, non-U.S. EPU indices have better predictive power for U.S. equity market excess returns than the U.S. EPU index itself. This illustrates how economic information from international markets can affect the U.S. stock market. This finding challenges the extensively recognized view that the U.S. is where important market signals are initially transmitted to other markets, suggesting that this belief is incomplete. Our outcomes are robust to a battery of tests covering model selection, model specification, forecast horizons, and the pandemic period, and their economic values are assessed. The findings are essential for the financial field to confront future fierce situations and crises.     

Asset pricing in China's domestic stock markets: Is there a logic?

China's stock markets have grown rapidly since their inception and have become an increasingly important emerging market for international investors. However, there are few systematic studies on how asset prices are formed in Chinese domestic equity markets; popular financial media even depict the market as irrational. In this paper, we study the asset pricing mechanism in the nascent Chinese stock markets, with the objective of identifying variables that capture the cross-sectional variation in average stock returns. We focus on the effects of various market imperfections in China. We find that while the market risk (beta) is not priced, there is a significantly negative relationship between firm-specific risk and expected returns. Chinese investors are willing to pay a significant premium for more liquid stocks or for dividend-paying stocks. Furthermore, investors value local A-shares more if there are offshore counterparts (e.g., B- and H-shares) for foreigners, implying that a Chinese firm with a foreign shareholder base has a lower cost of capital, ceteris paribus. Lastly, as with U.S. and other mature markets, firm size and the book-to-market ratio are systematically related to stock returns. Given market imperfections, stocks are priced rather rationally in China, despite the widespread perception to the contrary.     

DO U.S. STOCK MARKET INDEXES OVER‐ OR UNDERREACT?

Our objective is to investigate the short‐term over‐ or underreaction of six U.S. stock market indexes. We find evidence of a one‐day underreaction for winners (days on which an index experiences abnormally high returns) and losers (days on which an index experiences abnormally poor performance). We also find strong evidence of a sixty‐day underreaction for winners. For losers, abnormal returns turn from negative to positive as the period is extended, resulting in significant reversals over the sixty‐day period. Results are generally consistent for each of the six indexes. Overall, these results provide strong support for the uncertain information hypothesis. JEL classification: G14