Aggregation,Dividend Irrelevancy,and Earnings‐Value Relations*

In this paper I show that the aggregation of operating and financial income imposes three conditions on earnings‐based value functions. These three conditions provide a shortcut way to identify dividend irrelevant value functions. For example, consider any value function V_t of book value b_t, earnings x_t, and dividends d_t. The aggregation conditions imply that V_t must be of the form V_t = (1 ? k)bt + k [f xt ? dt]. f is the permanent earnings capitalization factor and undetermined weight k may be any function of Δ_t ≡[φx_t ? d_t] ? b_t. The Ohlson 1995 model is the special case when k is constant. But generally k does not have to be constant to maintain dividend irrelevancy. Whenk varies with Δ_t, V_t is nonlinear in earnings. Hence, this result specifies how V_t may be nonlinear in earnings in settings with limited liability or production or abandonment options and still be dividend‐irrelevant. An even more remarkable feature of this result is that it holds whether accounting is clean surplus or not. One must conclude that accounting‐based valuation properly builds from accounting aggregation and Δ_t, and not from the clean surplus relation and abnormal earnings as many now believe.     

Reconciling Value Estimates from the Discounted Cash Flow Model and the Residual Income Model*

This paper examines why practitioners and researchers get different estimates of equity value when they use a discounted cash flow (CF) model versus a residual income (RI) model. Both models are derived from the same underlying assumption — that price is the present value of expected future net dividends discounted at the cost of equity capital — but in practice and in research they frequently yield different estimates. We argue that the research literature devoted to comparing the accuracy of these two models is misguided; properly implemented, both models yield identical valuations for all firms in all years. We identify how prior research has applied inconsistent assumptions to the two models and show how these seemingly small errors cause surprisingly large differences in the value estimates.     

Earnings,Book Values,and Dividends in Equity Valuation: An Empirical Perspective*

This paper revisits Ohlson 1995 to make a number of points not generally appreciated in the literature. First, the residual income valuation (RIV) model does not serve as a crucial centerpiece in the analysis. Instead, RIV plays the role of condensing and streamlining the analysis, but without any effect on the substantive empirical conclusions. Second, the concept of “other information” in the model can be given concrete empirical content if one presumes that next‐period expected earnings are observable.     

基丁剩余收益估值模型的市场错误定价研究

基于Ohlson（1995）创立的包含线性信息动态过程的剩余收益估值模型,对1995—2006年部分A股上市公司的内在价值进行测算,据此分析中国证券市场中的错误定价问题。结果发现,剩余收益、净资产账面价值均具有较强的持续性和可预测性。大多数公司年份的股价被高估,表明市场错误定价问题在我国证券市场中常年存在。具体说来,在1997、2000、2001和2007年4月,样本公司股价处于系统性高估状态;相反,多数公司股价在2005和2006年4月被低估。文章的创新之处在于利用可观测的会计信息直接检验线性信息动态过程,避免采用跨期盈余预测值进行估值,一定程度上提高了研究结果的可靠性。