Outlay equivalence analysis of child gender bias in household expenditure data

This article reports the results of an empirical analysis of gender‐based discrimination among children based on household consumption data from Uzbekistan. We employ the outlay equivalence methodology to examine whether the entry of a new child leads to different effects in the decrease of adult good consumption for boys and for girls. We use a semi‐parametric estimation method to address the so‐called ‘zero consumption problem’, the statistical problem that arises because some households have zero consumption on a budget line in the period prior to the survey date. The results indicate that alcohol and tobacco reveal the incidence of discrimination against girls, while other groups of adult goods do not.     

Women as agents of change: Female income and mobility in India

Economic globalization will give many women in developing countries access to steady and relatively remunerative employment for the first time, potentially shifting bargaining power within their households and changing the choices that are made for their children. This paper exploits a unique setting — a group of tea plantations in South India where women are employed in permanent wage labor and where incomes do not vary by caste — to anticipate the impact of globalization on mobility across social groups in the future. The main result of the paper is that a relative increase in female income weakens the family's ties to the ancestral community and the traditional economy, but these mobility enhancing effects are obtained for certain historically disadvantaged castes alone. Although the paper provides a context-specific explanation for why the women from these castes emerge as agents of change, the first general implication of the analysis is that the incentive and the ability of women to use their earnings to influence household decisions depends importantly on their social background. The second implication is that historically disadvantaged groups may, in fact, be especially responsive to new opportunities precisely because they have fewer ties to the traditional economy to hold them back.     

HIV and fertility revisited

Young (2005) argues that HIV related population declines reinforced by the fertility response to the epidemic will lead to higher capital-labor ratios and to higher per capita incomes in the affected countries of Africa. Using household level data on fertility from South Africa and relying on between cohort variations in country level HIV infection, he estimates a large negative effect of HIV prevalence on fertility. However, the studies that utilize the recent rounds of Demographic Health Surveys, where fertility outcomes are linked to HIV status based on testing, find no effect of the disease on the fertility behavior. This paper tries to bridge this gap by revisiting Young's findings. Young (2005) includes data before 1990, when no data are available on HIV prevalence rates. He assigns all the fertility observations before 1990 with HIV prevalence rates of zero, and this appears to drive the significant negative effect found in his study. When one restricts the sample to the period 1990-1998, where actual HIV data are available, the effect of HIV prevalence on fertility turns out to be positive for South Africa. Simulating Young's model utilizing these new estimates shows that the future generations of South Africa are worse off.     

The second Engel law: Is it a paradox?

The second Engel law says that the Engel curve for food moves out as family size increases, thus showing a decrease in welfare. What is puzzling, though, is that this regularity does not hold for equivalent income functions expressed in per capita terms. Deaton and Paxon [1998. Economies of scale, household size, and the demand for food. Journal of Political Economy 106 (5), 897-930] show that holding per capita total household expenditure constant, per capita expenditure on food falls with the number of heads. Deaton and Paxson's empirical evidence from developed and less developed countries seems to invalidate the claim of the second Engel's law. The main objective of this paper is to understand such paradoxical relationship between food consumption and household size. Our nonparametric empirical evidence, drawn from the Colombian 1985 urban survey, shows that the food share is negatively related to total household per capita expenditure in line with Deaton and Paxson's claim, but equivalent incomes shift to the right as theory predicts. The regularity of our nonparametric results is an indication of a problem in the parametric specification of the Engel curve modified by family size. In fact, using also the surveys of Italy, Nepal, Djibouti, and Bangladesh we show that a theoretically plausible modified Engel curve is coherent with the claim of the second Engel law and explains Deaton and Paxson's paradox.     

Social Affiliation and the Demand for Health Services: Caste and Child Health in South India

This paper assesses the role of social affiliation, measured by caste, in shaping investments in child health. The special setting that we have chosen for the analysis - tea estates in the South Indian High Range - allows us to control nonparametrically for differences in income, access to health services, and patterns of morbidity across low caste and high caste households. In this controlled setting, low caste households spend more on their children's health than high caste households, reversing the pattern we would expect to find elsewhere in India. Moreover, health expenditures do not vary by gender within either caste group, in contrast once again with the male preference documented throughout the country. A simple explanation, based on differences in the returns to human capital across castes in the tea estates is proposed to explain these striking results.     

Identifying non-cooperative behavior among spouses: Child outcomes in migrant-sending households

I propose a model of household decision-making under asymmetric information and show that resulting allocations may not be fully cooperative. The model yields a simple test for cooperative decision-making, which I apply to data from China. I find that, when the father migrates without his family, children spend more time in household production, while mothers spend less time in both household production and income-generating activities. This is not consistent with standard cooperative models of the household: simply reallocating time to compensate for the father's absence would cause an increase in household labor for both children and mothers and, if migration occurs in response to a negative shock, we should observe an increase in mothers' time in income-generating activities rather than a reduction. The results also do not appear to be driven by an increase in mothers' bargaining power, as children's human capital is not affected by migration, controlling for income.     

Fertility choice under child mortality and social norms

In most demographic transitions, declines in child mortality precede declines in net fertility rates. Variants of the Barro-Becker model of fertility fail to deliver this link. A simple extension, the inclusion of social norms regarding fertility, generates the desired effect.     

Child fostering in Africa: When labor and schooling motives may coexist

The paper proposes a theoretical framework for understanding purposive child fostering in Africa, whereby a non-orphaned child is sent to live temporarily with relatives. In the model, adults decide whether to foster in or out a child in conjunction with other household choices, e.g. own time allocation between market and non-market activities, children's amount of work, and schooling. By allowing for positive externalities from fostering, and thus asymmetric motives for fostering in (labor) and out (human capital), the proposed framework predicts that school-age children are sent to better-off households and that some families may foster in and out simultaneously. The model identifies the conditions under which all actors involved, children included, may benefit from fostering arrangements, but also points to situations where fostering may become an opportunity to marginalize a subset of children. The paper aims to provide a sound theoretical foundation that sheds light on why there exists mixed empirical evidence on the effects of fostering on children's well being, and cautions against demonizing non-parent residence as unequivocally detrimental to children.     

Geography,health, and the pace of demo-economic development

This paper investigates the impact of subsistence consumption and extrinsic and intrinsic causes of child mortality on fertility and child expenditure. It offers a theory for why mankind multiplies at higher rates at geographically unfavorable, tropical locations. Placed into a macroeconomic framework this behavior creates an indirect channel through which geography shapes economic performance. It is explained why it are countries of low absolute latitude where we observe exceedingly slow (if not stalled) economic development and demographic transition.     

Household bargaining over fertility: Theory and evidence from Malaysia

We develop and test a model of household bargaining over fertility when transfers between spouses are possible. The model makes precise how the fertility preferences of each spouse translate into fertility outcomes. We show this depends on whether or not spouses can commit to their future actions within marriage. If couples bargain with commitment, fertility outcomes take account of both spouses' fertility preferences and do not depend on the threat point in marital bargaining. If couples bargain without commitment, the influence of each spouse's fertility preference on fertility outcomes depends on the relevant threat point in marital bargaining, and the distribution of bargaining power. We test the models using household data from the Malaysia Family Life Survey. This data set contains information on each spouse's desired fertility level, as well as fertility outcomes. We exploit differences in threat points in marital bargaining across ethnic groups to help identify the underlying bargaining model. The evidence suggests couples bargain without commitment.     

Why the marriage squeeze cannot cause dowry inflation

An influential explanation for rising dowry payments is the “marriage squeeze”. The present paper shows this explanation to be internally inconsistent. The marriage squeeze argument for inflation relies on the fact that population growth leads to an excess supply of brides in the marriage market. This excess supply is resolved by some women postponing marriage, so that the average age of brides increases. In previous studies the argument is stated informally. Here, a matching model of marriage is developed to formally analyze the link between dowry payments and population growth. It is shown that a marriage squeeze cannot yield dowry inflation. In fact, when women who do not find matches at the ‘desirable’ marrying age re-enter the marriage market as older brides, a marriage squeeze is shown to imply dowry deflation. Population change is therefore not a promising explanation for the observed increases in dowry payments.     

New facts on infidelity

We establish new empirical facts, in line with the recent theoretical literature on infidelity. Infidelity displays seasonality and state dependence. In the US socioeconomic status is not a driver of infidelity and females and males are equally likely to be unfaithful.     

An Afriat Theorem for the collective model of household consumption

We provide a nonparametric ‘revealed preference’ characterization of rational household behavior in terms of the collective consumption model, while accounting for general individual preferences that can be non-convex. Our main result is the Collective Afriat Theorem, which parallels the well-known Afriat Theorem for the unitary model. First, it provides a characterization of collectively rational consumption behavior in terms of collective Afriat inequalities. Next, it implies the Collective Axiom of Revealed Preference (CARP) as a testable necessary and sufficient condition for data consistency with collective rationality. Finally, the theorem has some interesting testability implications. With only a finite set of observations, the nature of consumption externalities (positive or negative) in the intra-household allocation process is non-testable. The same non-testability conclusion holds for privateness (with or without externalities) or publicness of consumption. By contrast, concavity of individual utility functions (representing convex preferences) turns out to be testable. In addition, monotonicity is testable for the model that assumes all household consumption is public.     

Should we write prenuptial contracts?

A successful marriage requires for both parties to make investments in their relationship and marital assets. How such assets would be divided if and when the parties divorce is an important factor determining each party's ex ante investment incentives. Using the incomplete contracting approach, we characterize the optimal asset division rule, one that provides the parties with the best investment incentives. We then discuss the circumstances under which the spouses would agree, in equilibrium, to contract out state-imposed rules governing the allocation of marital assets upon divorce. We conclude by exploring the implications of our results in the context of various asset division rules currently discussed by policy-makers.     

Real options and demographic decisions

The theory of real options is used to incorporate the influence of uncertainty on demographic decision-making. The decision to have children is formulated as an investment using portfolio theory. The timing of the decision to have a child is modelled as a real options decision, with uncertainty affecting a woman's ability to exercise the ‘option to wait’ in order to delay or space births. An increase and reduction in uncertainty on this option is explored. Compared to the widely used net present value (NPV) framework, the real options approach (ROA) better explains the process of demographic decision-making in poor countries.     

The Impact of Lifecycle Events on Women's Labour Force Transitions: A Panel Analysis*

This panel study explores the impact of different lifecycle events on women's labour force transitions. We explicitly investigate whether the factors that determine entry into the labour force differ from the factors that determine withdrawal from the labour force. The results demonstrate that labour force transitions – entry and withdrawal – occur more frequently among young women. The event of childbirth is strongly associated with labour force withdrawal, while marital separation and reductions in family earnings are strongly associated with labour force entry. Moreover, labour force transition probabilities are more sensitive to income‐reducing events than to income‐supplementing events.     

A DYNAMIC DECISION MODEL OF MARRIAGE,CHILDBEARING, AND LABOUR FORCE PARTICIPATION OF WOMEN IN JAPAN*

This paper empirically examines marriage, child bearing and labour force participation behaviour of fertile‐aged women in Japan, applying an estimable dynamic model of dis‐crete choice. Using microdata from the 1994–1999 Japanese Panel Survey of Consumers, the structural estimation result suggests that, overall, women are worse off with marriage and part‐time work without financial benefits. Women are better off having two or more children, but considerably worse off because of the burden of raising infants. In addition, probabilities of finding full‐time work after career interruption are estimated at about 18% for university educated women and 12–13% for less educated women.     

Maternal labour supply and childhood obesity in Canada: evidence from the NLSCY

Abstract.  This paper investigates the socioeconomic factors affecting childhood overweight and obesity in Canada using data from the National Longitudinal Survey of Children and Youth. In particular, I attempt to address the issue of whether an increase in the mother's work intensity is associated with an increase in the risk of the child's becoming overweight or obese. I also attempt to evaluate the causality of this relationship and the mechanisms that might facilitate this link. The results suggest that an increase in the mother's work intensity when she first returned to work in the period after the child's birth and before the child started school is associated with an increase in the risk of the child's becoming overweight or obese later in childhood. Conditional on the mother returning to work in the period between the child's birth and the start of school for the child, a 10-hour increase in the number of hours worked per week when the mother first returned to work is associated with an increase in the probability that the child later becomes overweight or obese that is in the range of 2.5 to 4 percentage points.     

Protecting consumers through protection: The role of tariff-induced technology transfer

We consider a duopolistic trade model where a tariff induces the foreign firm to transfer its superior technology to the domestic rival. Contrary to the conventional wisdom, such a tariff raises consumers’ surplus relative to the free trade situation. We characterize the optimal tariff with and without precommitment on the part of the local government. Possibility of technology transfer reduces the optimal tariff rate compared to the no-transfer situation.