Heights of Men and Women in 19th-Century Bavaria: Economic, Nutritional, and Disease Influences

We analyze heights of men and women who were imprisoned in 19th-century Bavaria. Heights were not significantly correlated by sex over time. Both men and women grew taller in milk- and potato-producing regions. Women's heights were significantly reduced by the 1840s potato crisis, tuberculosis prevalence, and illegitimate birth, none of which significantly affected men's heights. Economic factors in early childhood had more systematic influence on girls' than boys' heights and were more important than disease measures for both sexes. Conditions in the 1st year of life had greater effects on adult height than those in later years.     

Growing Incomes,Growing People in Nineteenth-Century Tasmania

The earliest measures of well-being for Europeans born in the Pacific region are heights and wages in Tasmania. Evidence of rising stature in middle decades of the nineteenth century survives multiple checks for measurement, compositional, and selection bias. The challenge to health and stature seen in other settler societies (the ‘antebellum paradox’) is not visible here. We sketch an interpretation for the simultaneous rise of Tasmanian stature and per capita gross domestic product based on relatively slow population growth and urbanisation, a decline in food cost per family member available from a worker's wage, and early recognition of the importance of public health.     

Trends in elderly health by cohort: Evidence from China

China has the world's largest number of older persons and is undergoing rapid demographic and economic transitions. Using longitudinal data from seven waves of the China Health and Nutrition Survey (CHNS) spanning 1991–2009, this study examines trends by birth cohort for persons born during 1912–54 on several dimensions of elderly health—chronic diseases, physical function limitations, and excess weight. A fixed effects specification was used to distinguish trends in health, physical function, and weight common to all adult age groups and differential trends in these measures according to the person's birth year. The empirical results show that while there was a decline in physical function limitations over time, persons born in later years were more likely to experience a stroke and physical function limitations at older ages than were persons born earlier. A similar pattern occurred for stroke, but not for the other heath indicators. These findings are robust after accounting for sample attrition. The secular changes in health and function could have occurred for several reasons. Among the underlying mechanisms the data allow us to analyze, improved access to medical care and expanded health insurance coverage only had minor effects on observed changes in health and physical function.     

On the Puzzling Cycle in the Biological Standard of Living: The Case of Antebellum Georgia

We investigate the physical stature of Georgia convicts, both white and black, born in the first half of the 19th century. We confirm the existence of theantebellum puzzle,the decline in biological well-being at a time of general economic prosperity, for the first time in a civilian Southern population. We argue that the decline in heights was caused by such economic factors as an increase in inequality, a shift to cotton production, and a rise in the relative price of nutrients, which induced households to substitute carbohydrates for animal proteins. However, slaves fared better, and the birth cohorts of the 1840s were almost as tall as their white counterparts.     

A Tale of Two Armies: Comparative Growth in the Mirror of the First World War

Soldiers born during the late nineteenth century were taller in Australia than in Canada. A widening of the gap for those born in the 1890s supports the more optimistic interpretation of Australia's 1890s depression and is consistent with the ‘hazardous growth’ hypothesis of an inverse relationship between economic change and public health. The rural–urban stature gradient was steeper in Australia although Canada had greater stature inequality in all other dimensions. Native-born soldiers were taller than the British-born in both countries. We see no evidence of selective migration effects that would imply feedback from stature to growth.     

Inequality and living standards under early communism: Anthropometric evidence from Czechoslovakia, 1946–1966

A sample of adolescent heights and weights from the Czechoslovak city of Liberec is analyzed to shed light on the changes in biological standard of living between 1946 and 1966, the early years of Communist rule in Czechoslovakia. The long-term trend in average height was upwards for all social groups but differences in stature between social groups were about as large as in Communist Czechoslovakia as in market economies, such as the UK. Sons of blue-collar fathers and of parents employed in agriculture were generally shorter than sons of clerks and professional employees (teachers, doctors, lawyers). The anthropometric record also suggests that in the immediately post-war years inequality was greater than in the late 1950s and early 1960s.     

Age misreporting: An empirical investigation using the New Zealand contingents in the Second Boer War

This is a first focused examination of age misreporting in military recruitment. We take advantage of an original dataset comprised of New Zealand military personnel records in the Second Boer War matched with birth historical records. First, we find that age misrepresentation is common: about one third of soldiers on our dataset misreport their ages. Second, we find that soldiers the estimated age-specific mean heights do not change significantly when we change from using reported ages to using true ages. Researchers can prioritise the investigation of true ages on those reporting to be 21 or younger.     

Fertility Effects of Labor Market Conditions at Graduation

This study examines how individuals' fertility outcomes were affected by the labor market conditions they experienced at graduation. Using data from the Chinese General Social Survey, it finds that poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed individuals' entry into parenthood. Higher unemployment rates at graduation reduced the probability of having at least one child in the survey year for both men and women. The negative fertility effects generally followed a U-shape, reached the maximum around average childbearing ages, and faded out within 15 years after graduation. Low-skilled workers mainly contribute to the negative fertility effects observed in the whole sample. Employment and marital outcomes are also analyzed as potential mechanisms. Estimation results indicate that individuals who experienced poor labor market conditions at graduation delayed marriage and the birth of the first child due to a lower probability of being employed, reduced working hours, and adverse income shocks. The negative long-term fertility effects should be brought to policymakers' attention, especially when China's low fertility issue worsens. Policymakers are expected to create more favorable employment conditions for labor market entrants to encourage fertility and expand the future working-age population.     

Do the Chinese “Keep up with the Jones”?: Implications of peer effects,growing economic disparities and relative deprivation on health outcomes among older adults in China

What are the health effects of unequal economic growth? What are the health consequences of ‘keeping up with the Jones’? Many developed countries (e.g., US and Japan) have experienced significant income growth between 1950s and 2000s but population survey shows that on average the population is not growing more satisfied with life. Theories that attempt to respond to these findings hypothesize that as income grows, people may spend more on conspicuous consumption because they compare themselves with others in their peer groups and care about their position in socio-economic distributions relative to others. Indeed, public health studies have found a relationship between income inequality and adult health outcomes in developed countries. Specifically, there seems to be a correlation between social hierarchy and mortality, as well as a correlation between social hierarchy and morbidity.China is a prime study site due to its growing spatial inequalities in the past decade. Though China has been committed to economic reform, different regions and cities have encountered very disparate rates of development and growth. In this paper, we utilize a set of panel data collected in China (China Health and Nutrition Survey 1989–2004) to examine the effects of peer groups, relative deprivation, and income disparities on individual health outcomes such as the probability of high waist circumference, body mass index categories, probability of hypertension, nutritional intake as well as health behavior such as smoking. We use a combination of multi-level mixed effects modeling as well as factor analysis to examine these effects and find significant and differential effects of income quartiles, peer groups, relative deprivation, and Gini coefficient on health.     

Reducing China's regional disparities: Is there a growth cost?

While China's growth has been spectacular over the past 30 years, it has masked growing underlying disparities in the regional distribution of income with coastal provinces growing at a much faster rate than the rest of the country, exacerbating already marked differences in per capita income. Policy focused on addressing these growing disparities has had to face the possibility that spreading growth more evenly around the country will require a sacrifice of the national growth rate. Yet there is almost no empirical evidence that this is so and, if it is, how big the required sacrifice is. This paper contributes to filling this gap by analyzing the relationship between aggregate growth and the inequality of regional output distribution. We use a VAR model to simulate the effects over time on growth of a reduction in inequality and also the effects on inequality of an increase in growth. We find, first, that in the long run a more equal distribution can be obtained without a growth sacrifice. Second, in the short run a reduction in inequality reduces growth. Third, in the short and long runs an increase in growth actually reduces inequality.     

论培训中心到企业大学

近年来,国内外企业创办企业大学的热情日益高涨,多数企业在原有培训中心基础上进一步将其发展为企业大学。然而将企业内部培训中心转型为企业大学,是否属于企业组织变革的真正跨越?企业大学与传统培训中心有何区别?具备了怎样的条件才可以将培训中心升级为企业大学?由培训中心升级为企业大学又需要哪些方面的改进和努力?本文将对以上问题进行论述。     

French Retirement Reforms and Intragenerational Equity in Retirement Duration

As most developed countries, France has gone over the last 20 years through a process of pension system reforms, mainly aiming at increasing the average retirement age, through increasing the required number of contribution years or through postponing legal (minimal and/or normal) ages. Public debates over which lever should be preferred have been paramount in France, with concerns focusing on redistribution issues between high wage high life-expectancy and low-wage low life-expectancy workers. In this paper, we empirically address this issue by simulating the differentiated impacts of the past French reforms on average retirement ages across wage quartiles. Our simulations show that increasing the required duration criterion—as was done by the 1993 and 2003 reforms–have redistributive impact as regards retirement age, while increasing the normal age—as was done by the 2010 reform—has a counter-distributive impact. The redistributive impact on average of the required duration criterion however only holds thanks to the fact that disabled workers—most of them in the lowest wage quartile—are exempted from it. Last, increasing minimal age has ambiguous impacts according to gender: redistributive among women but counter-distributive among men.     

JAPAN'S POSTWAR POPULATION AND LABOR FORCE

Although the sharp decline in the birth rate that marked the postwar years in Japan did not continue past the mid-1950's, the effects of this decline are being felt most dramatically some two decades later in an increasing manpower shortage problem. The labor shortage which now troubles Japan was created by the rapid absorption of surplus manpower reserves into the modernized industrial sectors of the economy during the period of accelerated economic growth after the war. But the problem has been considerably aggravated by the decline in manpower supply resulting from the falling-off of the birth rate in the postwar years. As the effects of this decline in the birth rate are going to be felt increasingly for years to come, it is of the greatest necessity that adequate manpower policies be devised to cope with the problems that are sure to arise.     

Prospects of changes in the total size and age composition of adults with disability in Russia

This article has considered an approach to forecasting the number and age–sex composition of disabled people aged 20 and older in Russia. The approach is based on hypotheses that connect the dynamics of disability level with mortality change scenarios in demographic projections. The results show that a decrease in the number of disabled people at ages up to 60 years and an increase in their number after the age 60 years, as well as an increase in disability prevalence among the population aged over 20 years due to demographic aging should be expected in the coming decades.     

Medium term economic dynamics of the Euro Area

This paper analysis the Euro area’s growth over the last 15–20 years and provides a medium term outlook. We find that in a no policy change scenario, growth will be subdued, essentially reflecting the influence of weak pre-crisis trends, most notably for TFP (especially since the mid-1990’s). This trend will be exacerbated over the coming decade by the ongoing negative fallout from the financial crisis and by the emerging drag on growth emanating from ageing populations. Unlike in standard recessions, the GDP losses relative to a pre-crisis projection appear to be permanent. The picture presented could potentially improve with the implementation of an ambitious programme of structural reforms focussed on boosting employment and productivity. Since the usefulness of such policies is controversial in the current juncture with constrained monetary policy, the paper also looks at the impact of such reforms in a realistically calibrated model and concludes that fears of large permanent deflationary effects from structural reforms are exaggerated.     

Stature growth in industrializing Argentina: The Buenos Aires industrial belt 1916-1950

A sustained long-term increase in average stature accompanied the process of import-substituting industrialization in the main suburban area of Argentina, the Buenos Aires Conurbano. This gain in net nutrition was attained before the rise to power of a re-distributionist political party: the Peronists. The article also provides evidence of a decline in average heights during the period 1939-1945, which challenges us to revise the traditional wisdom about the impact of World War II and Peronist social policies and its implications for the nutrition and health of children. The new evidence on heights shows also persistent social and regional differences over time that had not been documented before.     

INSTITUTIONS,BANKING DEVELOPMENT,AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

Does the institutional environment affect the causal relationship between banking development and economic growth? In the theoretical section of this paper, we develop an endogenous growth model where the institutional environment is captured through two indicators: judicial system efficiency and easiness of informal trade. We show that an improvement in the institutional environment has two effects. First, it intensifies the causality direction from banking to economic growth through a reduction in defaulting loans. Second, it reduces the interest rate spread. In the empirical section of the paper, we find bidirectional causality when analyzing 22 Middle Eastern and North African countries over the period 1984–2004. The first causality, which runs from banking development to economic growth, is more intense in countries with more developed institutional environment. The second causality runs from economic growth to banking and indicates that a more developed economy has a more developed banking system.     

Urbanization and mortality in Britain,c. 1800–50

In the long-running debate over standards of living during the industrial revolution, pessimists have identified deteriorating health conditions in towns as undermining the positive effects of rising real incomes on the ‘biological standard of living’. This article reviews long-run historical relationships between urbanization and epidemiological trends in England, and then addresses the specific question: did mortality rise especially in rapidly growing industrial and manufacturing towns in the period c. 1830–50? Using comparative data for British, European, and American cities and selected rural populations, this study finds good evidence for widespread increases in mortality in the second quarter of the nineteenth century. However, this phenomenon was not confined to ‘new’ or industrial towns. Instead, mortality rose in the 1830s especially among young children (aged one to four years) in a wide range of populations and environments. This pattern of heightened mortality extended between c. 1830 and c. 1870, and coincided with a well-established rise and decline in scarlet fever virulence and mortality. The evidence presented here therefore supports claims that mortality worsened for young children in the middle decades of the nineteenth century, but also indicates that this phenomenon was more geographically ubiquitous, less severe, and less chronologically concentrated than previously argued.