非上市公司价值评价:基于CAPM的DCF方法与实证

通过一个非上市软件企业的例子,详细说明了非上市公司价值评估的一种方法:基于CAPM的DDF方法。首先由股票市场中同类企业的数据求出该公司的系统风险β值,然后根据CAPM求出市场要求的资产回报率,亦即确定了贴现率,最后利用贴现现金流估价方法确定非上市公司的价值。     

Valuation effects and the dynamics of net external assets

‘Valuation effects’ can imply that the traditional current account is an inaccurate measure of the change in the net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper uses new developments in the analysis of portfolio choice in general equilibrium to investigate valuation effects in a two-country model. Broadly speaking, the valuation effects in the model correspond to those observed in the data. But there is a key distinction between ‘unanticipated’ and ‘anticipated’ valuation effects. Unanticipated effects can be large, dominating the movement in NFA, but anticipated effects arise only at higher orders of approximation and are small for reasonable parameterizations.     

The Asymptotic Expansion Approach to the Valuation of Interest Rate Contingent Claims

We propose a new methodology for the valuation problem of financial contingent claims when the underlying asset prices follow a general class of continuous Itô processes. Our method can be applied to a wide range of valuation problems including complicated contingent claims associated with the term structure of interest rates. We illustrate our method by giving two examples: the valuation problems of swaptions and average (Asian) options for interest rates. Our method gives some explicit formulas for solutions, which are sufficiently numerically accurate for practical purposes in most cases. The continuous stochastic processes for spot interest rates and forward interest rates are not necessarily Markovian nor diffusion processes in the usual sense; nevertheless our approach can be rigorously justified by the Malliavin–Watanabe Calculus in stochastic analysis.     

CHOQUET PRICING FOR FINANCIAL MARKETS WITH FRICTIONS1

In markets where dealers play a central role, bid-ask spreads inhibit asset valuation as defined by the formation cost of a replicating portfolio. We introduce a nonlinear valuation formula similar to the usual expectation with respect to the risk-adjusted probability measure. This formula expresses the asset's selling and buying prices set by dealers as the Choquet integrals of their random payoffs We investigate several price puzzles: the violation of the put-call parity and the fact that the components of a security can sell at a premium to the underlying security (primes and scores).     

Valuation effects with transitory and trend productivity shocks

Changes in asset prices of a country's foreign assets and liabilities (“valuation effects”) are commonly thought of as stabilizing: they counteract current account movements and mitigate the impact of the current account on the country's net foreign asset (NFA) position. This paper shows that whether valuation effects are stabilizing or not depends critically on the nature of the underlying productivity shocks. In response to transitory shocks, valuation effects are stabilizing; but in response to trend shocks, such effects amplify the impact of the current account on NFA position. These contrasting effects arise because optimally smoothing consumers respond differently to a transitory shock than to a trend shock to income. This theoretical result finds empirical support with G7 countries' data, and is illustrated by the pattern of external imbalances between the U.S. and other G7 countries since the 1990s.     

DERIVATIVE ASSET PRICING WITH TRANSACTION COSTS1

In the modern theory of finance, the valuation of derivative assets is commonly based on a replication argument. When there are transaction costs, this argument is no longer valid. In this paper, we try to address the general problem of finding the optimal portfolio among those which dominate a given derivative asset at maturity. We derive an interval for its price. the upper bound is the minimum amount one has to invest initially in order to obtain proceeds at least as valuable as the derivative asset. the lower bound is the maximum amount one can borrow initially against the proceeds of the derivative asset. We show that, in some instances, this interval may be strictly bounded above by the price of the replicating strategy. Prima facie, the cost of a dominating strategy should appear to be higher than that of the replicating one. But because trading is costly, it may pay to weigh the benefits of replication against those of potential savings on transaction costs.     

The Valuation Model for a Risky Asset When Its Risky Factors Follow Gamma Distributions

This paper constructed a pricing model for the asset with multi‐risks by specifying the risky factors (i.e., interest rate and termination hazard rates) to follow gamma distributions. The model not only avoids the possibility of the termination hazard rate taking an irrational (i.e., negative) value, but it also makes it easier to derive a valuation formula for a risky asset. Our model can also effortless apply because the parameters of the gamma distribution can easily be estimated from market data. An example using Taiwanese bond data illustrates how the model can be utilized for practical applications. To facilitate understanding of how accurately the different models price risky bonds, we compare their out‐of‐sample pricing errors for different hazard rate specifications assuming normal and gamma distributions. The results show that our pricing formula is realistic and accurate in its applications. Therefore, it should help market participants to accurately price risky assets and to effectively manage complicated portfolios.     

非金融资产管理公司价值增值与资本运作模式研究

做好资产管理工作、实现非金融资产管理公司的价值增值是资本运作的必由之路。资本运作是复杂的系统工程,需要各环节配合才能实现价值最大化。资产管理公司的运作在于利用比较先进、合理的价值评估理论和技术,对企业价值进行综合评估,对企业进行价值判断,确定是否收购或受托经营;按照企业战略管理相关理念和理论,分析判断企业在行业的定位,确定企业发展方向,进而进行资本经营,提升企业价值,使资产管理公司在处置企业股权或债权的过程中获得最大收益,提升资产管理公司自身价值。     

THE GARCH OPTION PRICING MODEL

This article develops an option pricing model and its corresponding delta formula in the context of the generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedastic (GARCH) asset return process. the development utilizes the locally risk-neutral valuation relationship (LRNVR). the LRNVR is shown to hold under certain combinations of preference and distribution assumptions. the GARCH option pricing model is capable of reflecting the changes in the conditional volatility of the underlying asset in a parsimonious manner. Numerical analyses suggest that the GARCH model may be able to explain some well-documented systematic biases associated with the Black-Scholes model.     

Semi‐efficient valuations and put‐call parity

We propose an approach to the valuation of payoffs in general semimartingale models of financial markets where prices are nonnegative. Each asset price can hit 0; we only exclude that this ever happens simultaneously for all assets. We start from two simple, economically motivated axioms, namely, absence of arbitrage (in the sense of NUPBR) and absence of relative arbitrage among all buy‐and‐hold strategies (called static efficiency). A valuation process for a payoff is then called semi‐efficient consistent if the financial market enlarged by that process still satisfies this combination of properties. It turns out that this approach lies in the middle between the extremes of valuing by risk‐neutral expectation and valuing by absence of arbitrage alone. We show that this always yields put‐call parity, although put and call values themselves can be nonunique, even for complete markets. We provide general formulas for put and call values in complete markets and show that these are symmetric and that both contain three terms in general. We also show that our approach recovers all the put‐call parity respecting valuation formulas in the classic theory as special cases, and we explain when and how the different terms in the put and call valuation formulas disappear or simplify. Along the way, we also define and characterize completeness for general semimartingale financial markets and connect this to the classic theory.     

ASSET PRICES,OUTPUT AND MONETARY POLICY IN A SMALL OPEN ECONOMY

We formulate a macro‐model of a small open economy in order to investigate the relative performance of rules that respond to asset prices and those that do not. Our model consists of three asset prices: the stock price, the long‐term interest rate and the exchange rate. These asset prices interact with nominal wage and price Phillips curves, a law of motion for the labour share, a dynamic IS curve that describes output adjustment and a Taylor‐type interest rate policy rule. Estimations of the model show that policy rules that respond to asset price movements dominate rules that do not.     

Equilibrium Pricing in the Presence of Cumulative Dividends Following a Diffusion

The paper presents some security market pricing results in the setting of a security market equilibrium in continuous time. The theme of the paper is financial valuation theory when the primitive assets pay out real dividends represented by processes of unbounded variation. In continuous time, when the models are also continuous, this is the most general representation of real dividends, and it can be of practical interest to analyze such models.
Taking as the starting point an extension to continuous time of the Lucas consumption-based model, we derive the equilibrium short-term interest rate, present a new derivation of the consumption-based capital asset pricing model, demonstrate how equilibrium forward and futures prices can be derived, including several examples, and finally we derive the equilibrium price of a European call option in a situation where the underlying asset pays dividends according to an Itô process of unbounded variation. In the latter case we demonstrate how this pricing formula simplifies to known results in special cases, among them the famous Black–Scholes formula and the Merton formula for a special dividend rate process.     

NO‐ARBITRAGE PRICING UNDER SYSTEMIC RISK: ACCOUNTING FOR CROSS‐OWNERSHIP

We generalize Merton’s asset valuation approach to systems of multiple financial firms where cross‐ownership of equities and liabilities is present. The liabilities, which may include debts and derivatives, can be of differing seniority. We derive equations for the prices of equities and recovery claims under no‐arbitrage. An existence result and a uniqueness result are proven. Examples and an algorithm for the simultaneous calculation of all no‐arbitrage prices are provided. A result on capital structure irrelevance for groups of firms regarding externally held claims is discussed, as well as financial leverage and systemic risk caused by cross‐ownership.     

Credit Risk,Liquidity, and Bubbles

This paper presents an arbitrage‐free valuation model for a credit risky security where credit risk coexists and interacts with an asset price bubble and liquidity risk (or liquidity costs). As an illustration, this model is applied to determine the fair rate for microfinance loans.     

Capital budgeting and uncertain inflation

In this article, capital budgeting is examined under uncertain inflation. The market value of a risky asset is shown to be greatly influenced by uncertain inflation. Risk- adjusted discount rates and certainty equivalent factors are determined by risks due to potential changes in investors' expectations in response to changes in the unanticipated inflation rate and market conditions over time. A serious error in capital budgeting decision may be resulted if the impact of uncertain inflation is ignored in the valuation process.     

Optimal equilibria for time‐inconsistent stopping problems in continuous time

For an infinite‐horizon continuous‐time optimal stopping problem under nonexponential discounting, we look for an optimal equilibrium, which generates larger values than any other equilibrium does on the entire state space. When the discount function is log subadditive and the state process is one‐dimensional, an optimal equilibrium is constructed in a specific form, under appropriate regularity and integrability conditions. Although there may exist other optimal equilibria, we show that they can differ from the constructed one in very limited ways. This leads to a sufficient condition for the uniqueness of optimal equilibria, up to some closedness condition. To illustrate our theoretic results, a comprehensive analysis is carried out for three specific stopping problems, concerning asset liquidation and real options valuation. For each one of them, an optimal equilibrium is characterized through an explicit formula.     

International currency exposures,valuation effects and the global financial crisis

We examine the evolution of international currency exposures, with a particular focus on the 2002–12 period. During the run up to the global financial crisis, there was a widespread shift towards positive net foreign currency positions, such that relatively few countries exhibited the archetypal emerging-market “short foreign currency” position on the eve of the global financial crisis. During the crisis, the upheaval in currency markets generated substantial currency-generated valuation effects — much of which were not reversed. There is some evidence that the distribution of valuation effects was stabilizing in the sense of showing a negative covariation pattern with pre-crisis net foreign asset positions.     

TAX BASIS AND NONLINEARITY IN CASH STREAM VALUATION

The value of a future cash stream is often taken to be its net present value with respect to some term structure. This means that a linear formula is used in which each future payment is discounted by a factor deemed appropriate for the date on which the payment will be made. In a money market with taxes and shorting costs, however, there is no theoretical support for the existence of a universal term structure for this purpose. What is worse, reliance on linear formulas can be seriously inaccurate relative to true worth and can lead to paradoxes of disequilibrium. A consistent no-arbitrage theory of valuation in such a market requires instead that taxed and untaxed investors be grouped in separate classes with different valuation operators. Such operators are linear to scale but nonlinear with respect to addition. Here it is established that although these valuation operators provide general bounds applicable across an entire class, individual investors within a tax class can have more special operators because of the influence of existing holdings. These customized valuation operators have the feature of not even being linear to scale. In consequence of this nonlinearity, investors from the same or different tax classes can undertake advantageous trades even when the market is in a no-arbitrage state, but such trade opportunities are limited. Some degree of activity in financial markets can thereby be understood without appeal to differences in utility functions or temporary disequilibrium due to random disturbances.     

Dynamically consistent alpha‐maxmin expected utility

The alpha‐maxmin model is a prominent example of preferences under Knightian uncertainty as it allows to distinguish ambiguity and ambiguity attitude. These preferences are dynamically inconsistent for nontrivial versions of alpha. In this paper, we derive a recursive, dynamically consistent version of the alpha‐maxmin model. In the continuous‐time limit, the resulting dynamic utility function can be represented as a convex mixture between worst and best case, but now at the local, infinitesimal level. We study the properties of the utility function and provide an Arrow–Pratt approximation of the static and dynamic certainty equivalent. We then derive a consumption‐based capital asset pricing formula and study the implications for derivative valuation under indifference pricing.     

The role of Islamic asset classes in the diversified portfolios: Mean variance spanning test

This study investigates both conventional and Islamic investors' problems as to whether the inclusion of Islamic and conventional asset classes may expand the frontier of their respective portfolios. Our sample covers the global U.S. portfolios and Malaysian portfolios with multiple asset classes, as well as the portfolios with a specific asset class in several regions. This study uses the recent mean variance spanning test in multiple regimes, which not only accounts for tail risk but also identifies the source of value added (tangency portfolio or global minimum variance).For intra-asset allocation, our findings tend to show that both Islamic and conventional fund managers of a specific asset class can benefit from conventional and Islamic asset classes, respectively, in several regimes. For inter-asset allocation, conventional institutional investors cannot obtain any value added from Islamic asset classes. On the contrary, the U.S. Islamic institutional investors can expand their tangency portfolio by investing in U.S. TIPSs and REITs, and reduce their global minimum variance by allocating in U.S. high-yield bonds. Moreover, the Malaysian Islamic institutional investors can obtain risk reduction by investing in conventional bonds only in the high term premium regime. For the remaining asset classes, the opportunity sets are sufficient for Islamic investors to invest complying with Shariah rules. We provide some policy implications for the global Islamic financial industry.