融入ESG因素的企业债券信用风险预警研究

选取2018年第四季度至2020年第四季度发生违约和信用评级下调的企业债券为样本,利用Logistic模型探究企业ESG表现在债券信用风险预警中的应用,研究发现:(1)ESG表现越好的企业,其债券发生违约或信用评级下调的可能性越低.(2)在预警模型中加入ESG因素能够显著提升模型的敏感性、特异性和预测准确性.(3)利用ESG评级构建的预警指标有助于预测企业债券信用风险.(4)进一步考察ESG的分项指标发现,违约企业在环境表现和公司治理方面存在尤为明显的缺陷.研究结论为发债企业提升自身ESG表现,投资者充分认识ESG评级的"排雷"作用和监管部门将企业ESG表现作为审核发债的重要参考提供了支持证据.     

Rollover Risk and Credit Risk

Our model shows that deterioration in debt market liquidity leads to an increase in not only the liquidity premium of corporate bonds but also credit risk. The latter effect originates from firms' debt rollover. When liquidity deterioration causes a firm to suffer losses in rolling over its maturing debt, equity holders bear the losses while maturing debt holders are paid in full. This conflict leads the firm to default at a higher fundamental threshold. Our model demonstrates an intricate interaction between the liquidity premium and default premium and highlights the role of short‐term debt in exacerbating rollover risk.     

信用风险管理与信用衍生产品

本文首先介绍了信用风险管理的传统方法和度量手段及影响,然后指出其不足之处,并引出信用衍生产品。信用衍生产品主要通过将信用风险从其他风险中剥离出来,转嫁其他机构以达到降低自身的风险的暴露水平,然后再系统地分析各种主要的信用衍生产品的基本原理之上,分析了利用信用衍生产品管理信用风险并说明了意义所在,最后对如何在中国金融市场上应用它提出了几点建议。     

Default Risk Estimation,Bank Credit Risk,and Corporate Governance

This study explores the relationship between credit risks of banks and the corporate governance structures of these banks from the perspective of creditors. The cumulative default probabilities are estimated for a sample of US commercial and savings banks to measure their risk taking behavior. The results show that one year and five year cumulative default probabilities are time‐varying, with a significant jump observed in the year prior to the financial crisis of 2008–09. Generally speaking, corporate governance structures have a greater impact on US commercial banks than on savings institutions. We provide evidence that, after controlling for firm specific characteristics, commercial banks with larger boards and older CFOs are associated with significantly lower credit risk levels. Lower ownership by institutional investors and more independent boards also have lower credit risk levels, although these effects are somewhat less significant. For all the banks in our sample, large board size, older CFO, and less busy directors are associated with lower credit risk levels. When we restrict the sample to consider the joint effects of the governance variables, the results on board size and busy directors are maintained.     

论农村信用社信贷风险及其防范措施

随着我国农村金融体制改革的深入进行,国有商业银行逐步退出农村金融市场,农村信用社成为我国农村金融体系的一支重要力量。现阶段,农村信用社信贷规模快速扩张,长期积累的金融风险逐步地暴露出来,特别是信贷风险问题日益凸显。如何控制信贷风险确保农村信用社健康发展,是当前各级农村信用社工作的重心。本文结合当前我国农村信用社改革发展的实际,针对信贷风险管理存在的问题,提出了相应的政策建议。     

Diversification,Fee Income,and Credit Union Risk

Australian credit unions (CUs) have introduced new fee generating activities, increased transaction fees on existing products, and diversified into residential mortgages. Using DeYoung and Roland’s degree of total leverage and other risk measures we find that more diversified CUs have lower risk and return. CUs that increase the revenue share of transaction fees (matched by a lower share of personal loan interest) increase risk and reduce returns while those that increase residential lending revenues reduce both risk and returns. There is also evidence of scale related economies with risk decreasing and returns increasing with CU size.JEL classification: G21Disclaimer: The views and opinions in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect those of APRA.     

Liquidity and Credit Risk

We develop a structural bond valuation model to simultaneously capture liquidity and credit risk. Our model implies that renegotiation in financial distress is influenced by the illiquidity of the market for distressed debt. As default becomes more likely, the components of bond yield spreads attributable to illiquidity increase. When we consider finite maturity debt, we find decreasing and convex term structures of liquidity spreads. Using bond price data spanning 15 years, we find evidence of a positive correlation between the illiquidity and default components of yield spreads as well as support for downward‐sloping term structures of liquidity spreads.     

信用风险量化模型与我国商业银行信用风险管理

近20年来,风险计量领域最主要的进展就是发展出了一套完整的模型体系,目前正式对外公布、有影响力的信用风险量化模型主要有四个,特点各异,且对我国商业银行信用风险管理具有借鉴意义。     

金字塔结构、业绩波动与信用风险

本文以手工收集的金字塔层级数据为基础,研究企业集团内部企业"地位"与业绩波动的关系以及银行信贷决策是否考查企业的业绩波动。我们的实证研究表明企业处在金字塔越低端,业绩波动越大;企业的国有属性能降低金字塔层级与业绩波动的关系;业绩波动越大,获得的银行贷款越少。用Heckman(1979)解决自选择问题后,以上结论依然成立。本文不仅丰富了金字塔结构经济后果的文献,还对企业的信用风险管理和银行信贷决策有一定帮助。     

Credit Events and the Valuation of Credit Derivatives of Basket Type

Thispaper provides a simple model for valuing a credit derivativewhose payoff depends on the identity (or identities) of the first(or first two) to occur of a given list of credit events, suchas defaults. The joint survival probability of occurrence timesof credit events is formulated in terms of stochastic intensityprocesses under the assumption of conditional independence. Basedon the joint survival probability, we can easily obtain the pricingformulas of such credit derivatives under the risk-neutral valuationframework. When the default intensity processes follow the extendedVasicek model, closed-form solutions of the pricing formulasare given.     

Interest Rates and Credit Risk

This paper explores the effects of shifts in interest rates on corporate leverage and default in the context of a dynamic model in which the link between leverage and default risk comes from the lower incentives of overindebted entrepreneurs to guarantee firm survival. The need to finance new investment pushes firms' leverage ratio above some state‐contingent target toward which firms gradually adjust through earnings retention. The response to interest rate rises and cuts is both asymmetric and heterogeneously distributed across firms. Our results help rationalize some of the evidence regarding the risk‐taking channel of monetary policy.     

Catastrophic Risk and Credit Markets

We provide a model of the effects of catastrophic risk on real estate financing and prices and demonstrate that insurance market imperfections can restrict the supply of credit for catastrophe-susceptible properties. Using unique micro-level data, we find that earthquake risk decreased commercial real estate bank loan provision by 22% in California properties in the 1990s, with more severe effects in African–American neighborhoods. We show that the 1994 Northridge earthquake had only a short-term disruptive effect. Our basic findings are confirmed for hurricane risk, and our model and empirical work have implications for terrorism and political perils.     

LGD、IRB和商业银行信用风险管理

风险的配置和管理是商业银行的职能之一，信用风险是银行业最大的风险之源。巴塞尔新资本协议资本监管下的内部评级法是信用风险管理的全新方式，违约损失率(LGD)是内部评级法(IRB)中最为重要和计量最为困难的参数。对IRB、LGD的进行了总结分析，并提出了我国商业银行发展内部评级法的意义和建议。     

浅议农村信用社信贷市场营销及风险防范

随着我国经济、金融体制改革的不断深化,市场营销观念已引入到商业银行经营管理之中。但由于长期以来受传统卖方市场的影响,农信社官商意识浓厚,市场意识淡漠,没有准确的市场客户定位,没有建立起以客户为中心的经营管理和营销模式。这些都严重制约了农村信用社的发展,如何做好市场营销工作成为摆在农村信用社面前的一个重要课题。     

Private Equity 4.0: Using ESG to Create More Value with Less Risk

A growing number of private equity firms have responded to the increased focus on climate change, social issues, and technology disruption by broadening their corporate mission to encompass all important stakeholders, as well as their limited partners. And in the process, the management of ESG risks and pursuit of ESG opportunities have become increasingly fundamental to the staying power and value creation potential of PE firms by reducing the risk of their investments, discovering new sources of growth, and increasing their resilience to changes in the political and regulatory environment. This article tells the story of how the Nordic PE firm, Summa Equity, has turned its ESG approach into a core competence and a source of competitive advantage that has enabled the firm to distinguish itself from its competitors and bring about significant improvements in the financial performance of its portfolio companies while providing benefits for their stakeholders. Using the U.N. Sustainable Development Goals to guide them, the firm invests in companies they perceive to be addressing major environmental or social challenges in an innovative and commercially successful way. This has led to investments in significant growth opportunities in areas such as health care, education, waste management, and acqua‐culture. And the firm's returns to its investors have been high enough—and the perceived social benefits large enough—that the firm recently closed its second fund (which was significantly oversubscribed) for 650 million euros, and received the ESG award at the 2019 Private Equity Awards in London.     

商业银行集团客户授信风险特征及风险控制

近年来,集团客户已成为商业银行重点拓展的客户群体,但信贷风险也日益凸显。商业银行应加强集团客户统一授信管理,转变以往对集团客户盲目迷信,将集团客户片面等同于优质客户、低风险客户的认识,加强授信各环节管理,筛选优质受信主体,合理控制集团客户的关联担保比例,解决过分倚重关联担保的问题,提高商业银行集团客户统一授信管理的效果。     

中国信用担保机构的信用风险分析

信用担保机构对于解决中小企业融资难问题发挥了重要的作用,但其本身的信用风险越来越大,如何评估担保机构的信用风险以及如何降低担保机构的信用风险是摆在监管层的一个非常现实的问题.通过对全国39家信用担保机构的信用评级,我们发现,民营担保机构的信用级别普遍较低,资本金越大则担保机构的信用级别越高,担保余额越小则信用级别越低等特点.为了降低担保机构的信用风险,担保机构要加强内部风险管理意识和水平;相关的政府要加强监管,建立行业准入制度和从业人员的资格考核制度.     

Credit Contagion from Counterparty Risk

Standard credit risk models cannot explain the observed clustering of default, sometimes described as "credit contagion." This paper provides the first empirical analysis of credit contagion via direct counterparty effects. We find that bankruptcy announcements cause negative abnormal equity returns and increases in CDS spreads for creditors. In addition, creditors with large exposures are more likely to suffer from financial distress later. This suggests that counterparty risk is a potential additional channel of credit contagion. Indeed, the fear of counterparty defaults among financial institutions explains the sudden worsening of the credit crisis after the Lehman bankruptcy in September 2008.