Public spending and economic growth: evidence from Ghana (1970–2004)

Governments undertake expenditures to pursue a variety of objectives, one of which is economic growth. This paper examines aggregated and disaggregated expenditure on economic growth in Ghana over the period 1970–2004. Expenditure on education and health represents human capital development, while expenditure on roads and waterways captures infrastructure development. The study reveals that the aggregated government expenditure retarded economic growth. The study's findings show that expenditures on health and infrastructure promote economic growth, while those on education had no significant impact in the short run. In addition, the political economy variables?namely the nature of governance (democracy) and political instability (years of changes in government and military dictatorship)?proved significant in explaining Ghana's economic growth over the study period.     

Theft under Stalin: a property rights analysis

Recent work on dictatorship has focused on how repression is used by dictators to eradicate political opposition. This article examines evidence from one of the most important dictatorships of the twentieth century to suggest that this may tell only half the story. As Stalin's dictatorship progressed, repression was increasingly administered neither by the secret police nor the military—as in most dictatorships—but through the ordinary courts. The article proposes an explanation, one broadly consistent with Olson's hypothesis that Stalin was a ‘proprietary dictator’, an autocrat with a long time horizon who made major investments in public goods. Stalin's new form of property—‘socialist property'—was one such public good. To legitimize the new form of ownership, Stalin ruled that it should be enforced through the ordinary justice system, albeit initially with high levels of repression. The article also makes two further contributions. It shows, first, how Stalin's theft campaigns are a striking historical example of what happens when an unpopular law clashes with social norms, and of how it might backfire. Second, it demonstrates how, as property rights theorists would predict, the main objects of theft legislation are generic or homogeneous goods with few property attributes.     

Health insurance reform and economic growth: Simulation analysis in Japan

This paper evaluates the drastic reforms of Japanese public health insurance initiated in 2006. We employ a computable general equilibrium framework to numerically examine the reforms for an aging Japan in the dynamic context of overlapping generations. Our simulation produced the following results: first, an increase in the co-payment rate, a prominent feature of the 2006 reform, would promote economic growth and welfare by encouraging private saving. Second, the ex-post moral hazard behavior following the increase in co-payment rates, however, reduces economic growth. Third, Japan's trend of increasing the future public health insurance benefits can mainly be explained by its aging population, and increasing the co-payment rate does little to reduce future payments of public health insurance benefits. Fourth, the effect on future economic burdens of reducing medical costs through efficiencies in public health insurance, emphasis on preventive medical care, or technological progress in the medical field is small. Finally, a policy of maintaining public health insurance at a fixed percentage of GDP will require reducing public health insurance benefits, perhaps up to 45% by 2050. Such a policy also reduces economic growth until approximately 2035. Our simulation indicates that the reform does not significantly reduce future public health insurance benefits, but it can enhance economic growth and welfare by encouraging private saving.     

Public Goods,Tax Policies,and Unemployment in LDCs

We build a general equilibrium model of a small open economy characterized by unemployment and producing two privately traded goods and one nontraded public consumption good. The provision of public good is financed with an income tax or an excise tax on the manufactured good or an import tariff. Within this framework, the paper examines the effects of such policies on the country's unemployment ratio and welfare, and it derives the efficiency rules for public good provision for each policy instrument. It shows, among other things, that the private marginal cost of the public good always overstates its social marginal cost in the case of income taxes and may overstate it in the case of an excise tax on the manufactured good or a tariff even if the taxed good and the public good are substitutes in consumption.     

欠发达地区公建民营养老机构SWOT分析——以乐山市X老苑老年公寓为例

随着养老服务需求的日益增长,公建民营成为当前养老机构改革的主要方向。为了更好地推动养老事业的发展以满足老年人的养老需求,基于SWOT分析模型的优势、劣势、机会以及威胁4个维度,对欠发达地区公建民营养老机构模式内外部环境进行研究。在自身劣势与外部环境威胁的基础上分析公建民营养老机构的短板与不足,并有针对性地从机构的服务定位、人才队伍建设、政府监管、机构环境等方面提出相关建议。     

改革开放以来党领导民营经济的发展变迁:一个四维分析框架

民营经济是我国经济社会发展的重要基础,在社会主义市场经济体系和现代化经济体系建设中发挥着重要作用。改革开放以来民营经济取得的巨大成绩与党的领导密不可分。新时代要推动民营经济健康发展,应从历史发展中吸取成功经验。为此,从角色认识、政策变化、内容侧重和领导视角四个方面构建一个党领导民营经济发展的分析框架,依据政策文件、关键历史事件等将民营经济的发展进行多维度分析,从历史进程中探寻党领导民营经济持续健康发展的成功经验。     

新时代民营经济企业家队伍建设：经验成效、当前问题及可能的突破方向

在复杂的国际局势下，虽然民营企业近期发展受挫，但民营企业家队伍仍是推动国家经济持续前行的关键支柱。首先，基于钻石模型剖析十八大以来我国民营企业家队伍在蓬勃发展等四个方面取得的显著成果。其次，利用三角模型对民营企业家队伍建设中的三大问题进行了系统的分析与诊断。最后，从强化民营企业家队伍政治性等六个维度出发，为民营企业家队伍建设提出了具体建议。     

THE SOCIAL SECURITY SYSTEM IN HONG KONG: ESTABLISHMENT AND READJUSTMENT OF THE LIBERAL WELFARE MODEL

Hong Kong's social security system has followed a “liberal” welfare state regime. The system has undergone changes along with the high economic growth, changes in the labor market, and transformation of the political environment, but has retained the fundamental principle of a social security system led by the private sector. In recent years, Hong Kong has responded to the aging population and growing unemployment by introducing the Mandatory Provident Fund Scheme that requires individuals to join private‐sector pension schemes and by intensifying cooperation with nongovernmental organizations. This indicates the deep‐seated nature of the influence of the liberal regime in Hong Kong.     

Book Reviews

Abstract

Dr. Utterström's dissertation completes the large project initiated in the 1930s under the auspices, and mainly at the expense, of Landsorganisationen (the Swedish TUC): the production of a comprehensive history of the Swedish working classes.Throughout the undertaking basic research in public and private archives has been necessary, the source material having been used before only to a very limited extent. The final work comprises 12 volumes, written by nine authors, including some of Sweden's leading political scientists and economic historians. This investigation of working class history became one of the main themes of Swedish research in social and economic history for several years; it has accordingly affected the direction of that research in several important respects.     

Education,globalization and catch-up: Scandinavia in the Swedish mirror

This paper estimates and analyses wage inequality trends in Portugal, from 1944 to 1984, a period that comprises the Estado Novo dictatorship and the first decade after the transition to democracy. Wage inequality is measured by the gap between skilled and unskilled labour, and reveals a downward trend in most of the period in analysis. We provide an explanation for the observed trends by looking at the influence of domestic and international forces on changes in the relative supply and demand of skilled labour. According to our findings, the skill premium declined due to the combined influence of two major forces: an increase in the relative supply of skilled labour due to the mass emigration of unskilled labour, and the decrease in the relative demand for skills, related to trade-induced changes stemming from the country's increasing openness, which followed the country's unskilled labour comparative advantages. Our findings point to the conclusion that the impact of openness on wage inequality is related to the country's relative level of development among its major trading partners.     

Anti-dumping Policies and International Portfolio Allocation: The View from the Global Funds

Anti-dumping policies, as one of the most important nontariff measures to protect a country's economic interests, can have an impact not only on a country's trade and social welfare, but also on capital flows. Anti-dumping measures can result in increased trade costs and alterations to exchange rate risk. This study investigates the impact of anti-dumping sanctions on the international portfolio allocations of global funds. Antidumping policies can decrease the proportion of a fund's investment portfolio allocated to recently-sanctioned countries. Closer trade ties between the sanctioned country and the country where a fund is domiciled exacerbate the divestiture, but stronger foreign direct investment links weaken the negative association. Some country and fund heterogeneities are also discussed. We find that more developed countries are less affected by the impact of anti-dumping measures on equity fund allocations; liberalization of the economy and stable government could also mitigate the negative impact of anti-dumping sanctions. High-risk funds, such as growth funds or funds that invest in leveraged buyouts, showed the greatest response to changes in anti-dumping regulations.     

Adverse Selection in Private Annuity Markets and the Role of Mandatory Social Annuitization

We study the effects on the macroeconomic equilibrium, the wealth distribution, and welfare of adverse selection in private annuity markets in a closed economy inhabited by overlapping generations of heterogeneous agents who are distinguished by their health status. If an agent’s health type is private information there will be a pooling equilibrium in the private annuity market. We also study the implications for the macro-economy and welfare of a social security system with mandatory contributions that are constant across health types. These social annuities are immune to adverse selection and therefore offer a higher rate of return than private annuities do. However, they have a negative effect on the steady-state capital intensity and welfare. The positive effect of a fair pooled rate of return on a fixed part of savings and a higher return on capital in equilibrium is outweighed by the negative consequences of increased adverse selection in the private annuity market and a lower wage rate.     

Renminbi in Ordinary Economies: A Demand‐side Study of Currency Globalization

Most studies of renminbi internationalization focus on the supply side, by examining China's own economic and political conditions. In contrast, this study addresses the demand side of renminbi internationalization, by providing an in‐depth analysis of renminbi use in ordinary foreign economies from both economic and political perspectives, with a particular focus on South Korea, China's next‐door neighbor. The study finds that sustainable indigenous market forces facilitating renminbi use in South Korea remain weak, despite the country's close economic ties with China. This research also shows, however, that the Korean Government has itself recently been able, through its policy measures, to generate new domestic support for greater use of the renminbi. These findings ultimately highlight the significant impact on the internationalization of a currency of the politics in the foreign countries using it.     

Insecure Resources,Bilateral Trade,and Endogenous Predation: A Game-Theoretic Analysis of Conflict and Trade

This article analyzes how interstate conflict over resources affects the incentives to trade and how greater trade openness affects the endogenous decisions of arming by enemy countries. We identify conditions under which there is trade between two adversary countries and show that each adversary's arming affects domestic welfare in three different ways. The first is an export-revenue effect, which increases welfare because arming causes export revenue to go up (i.e., there is an arming-induced terms-of-trade improvement). The second is a resource-predation effect, which increases welfare because arming increases the appropriation of a rival country's resource input to produce a consumption good. The third is an output-distortion effect, which reduces welfare because arming lowers the domestic production of civilian goods. Based on these effects, we show circumstances in which greater trade openness reduces the intensity of arming. We also discuss the implications of resource security asymmetry for conflict and trade.     

Vehicle currency pricing and its positive welfare consequences under optimal monetary policy

Using a two-country general equilibrium model, this paper analytically derives the possibility of positive welfare consequences of vehicle currency use in invoicing international trades. Such vehicle currency use is prominent in the data. The literature points out welfare loss under optimal monetary policy due to vehicle currency pricing relative to the flexible price equilibrium outcome, modeling only tradable goods. By introducing nontradable goods and their sector-specific productivity shocks, this paper provides a closed-form condition under which one country's welfare is higher under optimal monetary policy if its exports are invoiced with the other country's currency than if invoiced with its own currency, given that the other country's exports are invoiced with the producer's currency. That is, this paper derives a condition under which vehicle currency pricing is preferred by the nonvehicle currency country to producer currency pricing.     

SOCIAL SECURITY AND WELL‐BEING IN A LOW‐INCOME ECONOMY: AN APPRAISAL OF THE KERALA EXPERIENCE

The State of Kerala, which is considered to have attained a level of social well‐being comparable to that of advanced countries despite its relatively low income standard, is widely known as an example of “welfare by public intervention” in developing economies. This paper, focusing on the four areas of food provision, health services, elementary education, and pension schemes, and paying attention to the participation of the private sector as well as the activities of political parties and labor unions, points out that in Kerala, the private sector and organized activities have played a vital role, in addition to “public intervention,” in the betterment of public welfare.     

Taxation and the Environment–Health–Poverty Trap: A Policy Experiment Perspective

Under pressures related to economic growth and environmental protection, China is facing an increasingly severe “environment–health–poverty” trap risk. Fuel taxation is generally considered an effective policy to counter such a risk. Since 2009 China has raised the fuel tax rate many times to enhance tax reform. However, the effects of this policy remain unknown. Therefore, it is vitally important to estimate the impacts of China's current fuel taxation policy on environment, public health and the national economy. As the first attempt in existing literature on China, this paper builds a general equilibrium framework with the feedback effect of public health on economy. We find that that the fuel tax policy benefits the adjustment of the economic structure and improves human health; however, it is detrimental to economic growth, public welfare and price stability. In this sense, it plays a limited role in reducing the trap risk and might not be sustainable in the long term.     

Model Uncertainty,Political Learning,and Institutions: A Broader View on Mancur Olson's Theory of Institutional Sclerosis

In his Rise and Decline of Nations, Mancur Olson argues that politically stable countries suffer from declining growth rates caused by the growing influence of distributional coalitions that accumulate over time. The empirical literature supports the notion of a negative relationship between a country's duration of political stability and its growth rates but finds only weak support for a negative influence of distributional coalitions on growth. This paper sketches a simple model of party competition under model uncertainty, which may explain this mixed empirical picture. It shows that politically stable democracies are less well equipped to adjust to shifts in their economic environment than democracies with a shorter history of political stability. In a further step, the paper relates the major theme of this theory and Olson's theory to the more recent literature on institutions and growth. Directions for further research are discussed.     

A view from behavioral political economy on China's institutional change

A behavioral political economy framework is built on the basis of prospect theory to explain the induced and imposed institutional changes during China's market reform, giving special attention to the integrated effects of economic and political institutions. According to prospect theory, how rulers frame their decisions — in the prospects of gains or losses, influences how much risk they will take. China's market reform has been largely framed in the prospects of economic gains, for which the continuously growing private sector is the driving force. China's central government adopts a growth-oriented incremental reform that coincides with the prediction of prospect theory.     

Managing the economy,managing the people: Britain c.1931–701

The rise and consolidation of national economic management is one of the key themes of British economic and political history in the middle decades of the twentieth century. This article seeks to complement the existing substantial literature focused upon elite economic policy‐making processes with an analysis of how that economic management has been accompanied by persistent government attempts to develop and popularize new understandings of 'the economy'. In this way, governments were involved in a profound shift in their relationship with the wider society, as they sought to shape the beliefs and behaviour of producers, consumers, and the public in general. The article attempts to link the elite discourse of national economic management to the attempts to shape popular understandings about the economy, and the (problematic) impact of these understandings on behaviour. The particular focus is on the 1960s, when these attempts reached some kind of culmination.