The Global Financial Architecture: Twenty‐First Century Solutions*

Twentieth‐century global financial architectural solutions are outdated and have been found wanting. They are fundamentally structural solutions and continuing to rely on them would be to run the risk of repeating our mistakes. We must look to twenty‐first century solutions. Solutions created post‐1945 need replacing with networked solutions, reflecting what we see in the Internet and its development. These are not fanciful notions but concepts that have already been successfully modelled, albeit in a relatively narrow sphere. What we need is a mechanism by which global financial standards can be implemented in every jurisdiction around the world. This paper proceeds from the premise that the nexus between investor confidence and financial market stability is a crucial one, and one that a regulatory approach can impact. It discusses the international regulatory environment and the role of key players in the emerging global financial architecture, in particular the International Organization of Securities Commissions ( IOSCO ). It also examines the potential that mutual recognition offers for the trans‐Tasman market.     

Run EDGAR Run: SEC Dissemination in a High‐Frequency World

We describe the process through which the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) makes filings “publicly available.” For a sample of Form 4 (insider trade) filings, we show that, during the period we examine, the majority of filings are available to paying subscribers of the SEC's public dissemination system (PDS) feed before they are posted to the EDGAR website, and so provide subscribers and their clients with a private advantage. We show that this advantage translates into an economically significant trading advantage, and prices, volumes, and spreads respond to the news contained in filings beginning around 30 seconds before public posting. These findings indicate that the SEC dissemination process does not always provide a level playing field and that the meaning of publicly available information in capital markets is no longer simple or obvious. In response to our study, the SEC launched an investigation and agreed to eliminate the PDS timing advantage.     

Law and Executive Compensation: A Cross‐Country Study

Companies outside the U.S. use substantially less equity in their compensation mix than U.S. firms. But despite this consistent “cross‐sectional” difference, the pattern of changes in equity‐based pay of non‐U.S. companies over time appears to mirror changes in the pay of U.S. companies. The authors provide persuasive evidence that features of a nation's legal environment help explain major differences in compensation structure across countries. As a general rule, companies in countries that provide greater protection of shareholder rights use larger amounts of equity‐based compensation. And the equity mix also tends to be higher when a country's legal system ensures strict enforcement of the laws that are on the books. At the same time, since the equity mix varies considerably over time within the same legal environment, it is clear that factors other than the legal environment affect compensation structure. The authors report that, after controlling for legal factors, company‐specific variables that proxy for “agency” conflicts—not only between managers and shareholders, but between controlling and minority shareholders as well—also affect the compensation mix in fairly predictable ways. The bottom line of this study is that, although we may have a global market for talent, compensation structures across countries are not likely to converge unless and until the underlying legal protections afforded shareholders converge. At the same time, the effect of agency costs in compensation design for non‐U.S. firms appears to be partly conditioned by the nation's legal system and the entire set of regulatory and other institutions that are affected by it.     

Liquidity in a Market for Unique Assets: Specified Pool and To‐Be‐Announced Trading in the Mortgage‐Backed Securities Market

Agency mortgage‐backed securities (MBS) trade simultaneously in a market for specified pools (SPs) and in the to‐be‐announced (TBA) forward market. TBA trading creates liquidity by allowing thousands of different MBS to be traded in a handful of TBA contracts. SPs that are eligible to be traded as TBAs have significantly lower trading costs than other SPs. We present evidence that TBA eligibility, in addition to characteristics of TBA‐eligible SPs, lowers trading costs. We show that dealers hedge SP inventory with TBA trades, and they are more likely to prearrange trades in SPs that are difficult to hedge.     

The Leveraging of Corporate America: A Long‐Run Perspective on Changes in Capital Structure

In a study published recently in the Journal of Financial Economics, the authors of this article documented a substantial increase in the use of debt financing by U.S. companies over the past century. From 1920 until the mid‐1940s, the aggregate leverage of unregulated U.S. companies was low and stable, with the average debt‐to‐capital ratio staying within the narrow range of 10% to 15%. But during the next 25 years, the use of debt by U.S. companies more than doubled, rising to 35% of total capital. And since 1970, aggregate leverage has remained above 35%, peaking at 47% in 1992. Moreover, this pattern has been observed in companies of all sizes and operating in all unregulated sectors. Changes in the characteristics of U.S. public companies during this period provide little help in explaining the increase in corporate leverage. For example, the displacement of tangible by intangible assets in many sectors of the U.S. economy during the past 50 years would have led most economists to predict, holding all other things equal, a reduction rather than an increase in aggregate corporate leverage. Instead, according to the authors' findings, the main contributors to the increases in U.S. corporate leverage since the 1940s have been external changes, including increases in corporate income tax rates, the development of financial markets and intermediaries, and the reduction in government borrowing in the decades following World War II. The authors' analysis also identifies these last two changes—the development of financial markets, including the rise of institutional investors and shareholder activism, and the post‐War reduction in government debt—as having played the biggest roles in the leveraging of corporate America.     

Stealing Deposits: Deposit Insurance,Risk‐Taking,and the Removal of Market Discipline in Early 20th‐Century Banks

Deposit insurance reduces liquidity risk but can increase insolvency risk by encouraging reckless behavior. Several U.S. states installed deposit insurance laws before the creation of the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, and those laws applied only to some depository institutions within those states. These experiments present a unique testing ground for investigating the effect of deposit insurance. We show that deposit insurance removed market discipline constraining uninsured banks. Taking advantage of World War I's rise in world agricultural prices, insured banks increased their insolvency risk and competed aggressively for deposits. When prices fell after the war, the insurance systems collapsed and suffered high losses.     

Lessons in power: Lyndon Johnson revealed. A conversation with historian Robert A. Caro

No one can lead who does not first acquire power, and no leader can be great who does not know how to use that power. The trouble is that the combination of the two skills is rare. Amassing power requires ambition, a focused pragmatism, and a certain ruthlessness that is often at odds with the daring, idealistic vision needed to achieve great things with that power. The tension is as real in business as it is in politics. This magazine is replete with examples of successful senior managers who could not make the switch from ambitious executive to corporate leader because they did not know what to do with the power they had so expertly accumulated. Robert Caro is a student of power. For the past 27 years, the two-time Pulitzer prize-winning biographer of Robert Moses and Lyndon Johnson has focused on the question of how Johnson amassed and wielded power. Caro's deep understanding of the inner workings of power offers senior executives a nuanced picture of leadership at the highest level. In this wide-ranging conversation, Caro shares his insights about the nature of power, the complexity of ambition, and the role that the greater good can play in the making of a leader. Power doesn't always corrupt, he insists. But what it invariably does is reveal a leader's true nature. "Today, when CEOs have acquired more and more power to change our lives," Caro says,"they have become like presidents in their own right, and they, too, need to align themselves with something greater than themselves if they hope to become truly great leaders."     

Fifty‐seven Curious Defects in Haswell and Langfield‐Smith (2008): A Comment

Haswell and Langfield‐Smith (2008) (HLS) catalogue 57 ‘serious defects' in International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) and conclude that IFRS dilute pre‐IFRS Australian accounting standards. They question the adoption of the Australian IFRS protocol. I review each of their 57 ‘serious defects' and classify them as (1) where the defect existed in pre‐IFRS Australian standards; (2) where the defect is trivial rather than serious; or (3) where HLS ignore the possibility of alternative explanations. In most cases the alternative explanations can be found in IFRS and, unlike the arguments of HLS, have been through process. Alternatively the argument provided by HLS had been through due process and discarded. I conclude that HLS is neither a serious empirical study nor a well‐reasoned a priori analysis. It is simply a catalogue of personal assertions. The conclusions they reach on IFRS are not possible from evidence they provide.     

Regime Shifts in Price‐Dividend Ratios and Expected Stock Returns: A Present‐Value Approach

We incorporate regime shifts in the mean of price‐dividend ratios into the present value model of van Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) who propose a latent variable approach to modeling expected returns and dividend growth rates. We find that accounting for regime shifts results in much lower persistence of expected returns and higher volatility of expected returns, and thus higher in‐sample predictability, when compared to the results from the van Binsbergen and Koijen (2010) model. We also show that the main source of the increase in the mean of price‐dividend ratios in the mid‐1990s is a decrease in the mean of expected returns.     

e‐Government in the Irish Revenue: The Revenue On‐Line Service (ROS): A Success Story?

The Revenue Online Service (ROS) is one of the first e‐government initiatives introduced in Ireland. The primary purpose of this paper is to examine this reform initiative in the Irish Revenue, assess it through the lens of the New Public Management (NPM) and e‐government literatures and to critically assess whether its implementation can be deemed ‘a success story’. Many of the components of NPM were evident in the introduction of ROS which facilitated its implementation: decentralisation, the use of private sector styles of management, an emphasis on performance measurement and a search for efficiencies. ROS has, inter alia, transformed both access to taxation information for taxpayers and their agents, and the system of tax payment and filing in Ireland. Assessing its implementation in terms of the objectives of an e‐government initiative, ROS is ‘a success story’, and the Irish Revenue organisation has clearly benefited from its introduction in many ways. Indeed, there is evidence to suggest that tax/accounting practitioners are also beneficiaries of this e‐government initiative. However, a critical analysis of the findings of this study contests the idea that ROS is an unqualified success story.     

Defining the Reporting Entity in the Not‐for‐profit Public Sector: Implementation Issues Associated with the Control Test

This paper reports the main findings of a research project carried out on behalf of the Australian Accounting Standards Board (AASB) and the New Zealand Financial Reporting Standards Board. The purpose of the research is to inform standard setters about implementation issues that had been encountered in the not‐for‐profit (NFP) public sector when applying the control concept in AASB 127, Consolidated and Separate Financial Statements. The intention is to use the findings to inform proposed implementation guidance for AASB 10, Consolidated Financial Statements. Data were collected via a literature review and meetings with various NFP public sector constituents. Identified issues were either conceptual in nature (for example, who are the relevant users of NFP public sector general purpose financial statements and what are their needs?) or related to implementation concerns (for example, is the power exerted by one NFP public sector entity over another of an ‘ownership’ or a ‘regulatory’ form?). The findings give rise to several suggested actions that standard setters could take in providing useful guidance to NFP public sector constituents.     

Quasi‐Nationalisation in the UK Banking Crisis: A Problematic Policy Option

The systemic banking crisis in 2008 led to the quasi‐nationalisation of two UK listed banks: The Royal Bank of Scotland and Lloyds Banking Group (National Audit Office, 2010). Using property rights and agency theory as the theoretical frameworks, this paper analyses whether the quasi‐nationalisation of these banks has been successful. It is argued that as a rescue mechanism, quasi‐nationalisation was a positive development. However, questions arise over its effect as an instrument of banking reform. The State's arm's length approach to management represents a lost opportunity to change the culture of profitability over people that contributed to the banking crisis.     

A Fireside Chat with Raj Gupta: What It Takes to Create Long‐Term Value

The chairman of two public companies (and former chair and CEO of Rohm and Haas) draws on his experience as a director of five private and 15 public companies in discussing the challenges and opportunities facing today's corporate boards. Perhaps the most formidable challenge is the pace of technological change, which is making business models ‘in all industries and countries’ obsolete and forcing companies to adapt much more quickly than in the past. Along with the risk of obsolescence is the increase in ‘reputational risk’ associated with an ‘information age’ in which companies are forced to monitor the nearly continuous flow of fact, hearsay, and outright fabrication. The author recommends that public company boards adopt a new ‘partnership’ model. Besides ensuring an ‘ethical tone at the top,’ corporate directors should aim to become partners with the senior management team by playing more active roles in strategic planning, risk management, and the design of performance evaluation and incentive pay systems. In the most striking departure from current practice, the author urges directors to seize the opportunity created by the ‘reconcentration’ of ownership of U.S. public companies by actively engaging large institutional investors in a strategic dialogue about the companies' strengths and vulnerabilities. In so doing, proactive directors can help their management teams preempt shareholder activists and create long‐run value by creating a more effective two‐way channel of communication, one with the potential to give management more confidence when undertaking large strategic investments with longer‐run payoffs.     

依法监管:银行业稳健运营的保障

依法监管是实现银行业稳健运营的保障。为此,就必须以《中华人民共和国银行业监督管理法》、《中华人民共和国行政许可法》等法律法规为准绳,创新监管理念,增强法治意识;健全规章制度,规范监管行为;坚持依法行政,严格监管执法;强化监管法纪,完善内外监督。唯如此,才能实现有效监管,实现银行业的稳健运营。     

Auditor Independence in Canada: A Historical Perspective — From Shareholder Auditors to Modern‐Day Audit Committees*

This paper uses the theoretical framework of Goldman and Barlev (1974) to examine auditor independence in Canada. It traces the historical development of the auditor's role in the 19th century and the beginning of the auditor's relationship with shareholders and management. It shows how, following the separation of management from shareholding, management's ability to influence auditors undermined auditor independence. The paper traces attempts by legislators and regulatory bodies to limit management's influence over auditors and to correct the asymmetry of their relationship. It notes that recent changes to legislation and rules of professional conduct are no longer proactive, but are reactions to corporate scandals in Canada and the United States. The paper argues that although future changes will occur to redress the imbalance, only structural changes are likely to provide a real solution to auditor independence problems. However, it is likely that such changes will be resisted by the accounting profession.     

Evidence on the Relationship between Housing and Consumption in the United States: A State‐Level Analysis

We estimate the dynamic effects of U.S. housing market shocks on state‐level spending and home prices from a dynamic common factor model, and identify housing demand and supply shocks using a sign‐restrictions approach. While state‐level spending and house prices gradually respond positively and persistently to aggregate housing demand shocks, there is significant variation across states in the magnitude of these responses. Cross‐state regressions of the estimated responses on an index of mortgage market development suggest that spending in states with greater opportunities for home equity borrowing is more sensitive to housing demand shocks than in states with fewer opportunities, which is consistent with the prominence of a “collateral” channel over a “wealth” channel in explaining the link between housing and the overall economy.     

The Role of the Personal Tax System in Old‐Age Support: A Survey of 15 Countries

This paper examines the tax treatment of pensioners in 15 industrialised countries. Using a standard methodology, it calculates the average and marginal tax rates of older people and compares them with those of people of working age. These are then combined with a model of pension entitlements in different countries. This shows that tax differentials play an important role in old‐age support. We discuss the appropriate way for the tax system to support pensioners and the implications for the tax treatment of private pensions.