PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION UNCERTAINTY AND COMMON STOCK RETURNS IN THE UNITED STATES

There is substantial evidence on the influence of political outcomes on the business cycle and stock market. We further hypothesize that uncertainty about the outcome of a U.S. presidential election should be reflected in pre‐election common stock returns. Prior research pools returns based on the party of the winning candidate, assuming that the outcome of the election is known a priori. We use candidate preference (i.e., polling) data to construct a measure of election uncertainty. We find that if the election does not have a candidate with a dominant lead, stock market volatility (risk) and average returns rise.     

多元化经营,跟着战略走--当代美国银行业考察报告

编者按:2002年9月～2003年9月,中国工商银行湖北省分行副行长郑子术先生作为访问学者被中国工商银行总行派往美国著名学府--宾夕法尼亚大学学习一年.其间,作者除学习了有关经济、金融专业课程,听取了有关经济、金融的专题讲座,还访问了一些主要银行,特别是到纽约银行等银行进行了为期四个月的实习.本文记载了作者在美国的所见所闻及对当代美国银行业的认识.     

THE EFFECT OF U.S. TRADE DEFICIT ANNOUNCEMENTS ON THE STOCK PRICES OF U.S. AND JAPANESE AUTOMAKERS

The existing literature on the trade news effect on asset prices generally looks at exchange rates and stock market indexes. We focus on individual stocks: the U.S. and Japanese “Big Three” automobile stocks. We examine Japanese automobile American Depositary Receipts (ADRs), not the stocks per se, to avoid the time lag problem. First, we find deficit news shocks, especially the positive shocks, have a negative effect on the Japanese automobile ADRs. Second, we find only weak evidence that the news effect is different under different economic conditions. Third, trade news is found to be a competitive shock to the automakers in the sense of Karolyi and Stulz (1996) . Last, statistically generated U.S.–Japan bilateral trade deficit news and bilateral auto trade deficit news have no effect on the automobile stock in general.     

THE CONTRIBUTION OF INFLATION UNCERTAINTY TO THE VARIABLE IMPACTS OF MONEY ON STOCK PRICES

This paper examines the effects of inflation uncertainty on the lag structure between money growth and stock prices. Using a varying parameter model and the Livingston survey data 1 1 Livingston, J. A., “Inflation Expectations Surveys.” Published twice annually, Philadelphia Sunday Bulletin (1948–1971), Philadelphia Inquirer (1972 on).
as a proxy for inflation uncertainty, the results suggest that only current money growth influences stock prices. However, a large percentage of this positive impact can be expected to be offset by inflation uncertainty prevailing at the time.     

THE CHANGING RISK PROFILE OF U.S.-BASED MULTINATIONAL CORPORATIONS EXPOSED TO EUROPEAN COMMUNITY MARKETS

In this study we investigate the risk characteristics of U.S.-based multinational corporations (MNCs) that conduct much of their business in the European Community. Specifically, we assess the efficacy of a multifactor return-generating model that incorporates the influence of U.S. and European markets. Our results demonstrate that the European market is a significant factor in explaining the time-series behavior of MNC returns, and that the European market influence is stronger since the adoption of the Single European Act. In addition, the reduction in the sensitivity of MNCs to the U.S. market since the Single European Act is cross-sectionally associated with changes in their proportional levels of European sales. The results suggest that the returns of other MNCs expanding into increasingly integrated regional blocs may experience similar changes in their systematic risk profile.     

THE ECONOMIC EXPOSURE OF U.S. MULTINATIONAL FIRMS

In this paper we find that the exchange rate exposure of individual firms increases with the return horizon. Also, the cross-sectional differences in the magnitude of exposure of individual firms are significantly related to firm size but not to the relative portion of foreign sales to total sales. The empirical evidence is consistent with the hypothesis that hedging activities exhibit economies of scale, and, consequently, the magnitude of economic exposure is less for larger firms than for smaller firms.     

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKET REACTION TO THE U.S.-CANADA FREE TRADE AGREEMENT

In this paper we investigate the effect of news about the advent of the U.S.-Canada Free Trade Agreement (FTA) on the exchange rate between the Canadian dollar and the U.S. dollar. We find evidence that information flows related to the likelihood of the FTA influenced the volatility of the daily spot rate. In particular, information that increased the likelihood of the FTA subsequently diminished exchange rate volatility. In contrast, information that decreased the likelihood of the FTA subsequently increased exchange rate volatility.     

WHEN SHAREHOLDERS CHOOSE NOT TO MAXIMIZE VALUE: THE UNION BANK OF SWITZERLAND'S 1994 PROXY FIGHT

This paper examines the fight over a share reunification plan that pitted Swiss financier Martin Ebner against Union Bank of Switzerland (UBS), once the largest Swiss bank and a global leader in asset management. In the U.S. corporate governance debate, large shareholders are often held up as a possible solution to corporate governance problems. But this examination of the UBS proxy fight shows why some large shareholders can themselves be a source of governance problems. The share reunification plan was designed to combine the firm's two classes of stock: registered (voting) shares and bearer (non-voting) shares. As its motive for the plan, the UBS board cited a desire both to increase liquidity and to prevent a control change. The majority of the holders of the company's registered stock—many of whom had other financial ties to the bank—ended up voting for a proposal that caused them to lose 11% of the value of their shares during the three trading days following its announcement, and eventually almost twice as much. Moreover, even the holders of the bearer stock hurt themselves by approving the reunification plan. Although the plan clearly transferred value from the registered to the bearer shares, the redistribution benefits from the plan for the bearer shareholders were not sufficient to offset their losses from the reduced probability of a control change. Although it did not succeed in accomplishing its immediate goal, the UBS proxy fight is today recognized as a watershed event in Swiss corporate governance. Until recently, Switzerland's economy has been dominated by cartels, with closely overlapping boards of directors. Hostile takeovers were essentially unheard of, and criticism of management by shareholders was highly unusual. Ebner's activities have had the effect of stimulating public debate about shareholders' rights and shareholder activism. In so doing, they have made it more acceptable for shareholders to criticize management and established shareholder value as a “politically correct” goal for Swiss corporations.