资本市场开放与企业真实盈余管理——基于“陆港通”的经验证据

资本市场开放不仅是扩大国际融资、更好地利用国际金融市场的需要,而且对我国资本市场发育和上市公司行为具有多重外部治理效应。本文借助我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制这一准自然实验,研究资本市场开放对企业真实盈余管理的影响。研究发现:(1)总体上,“陆港通”机制的实施显著降低了标的公司真实盈余管理程度。(2)委托代理问题是企业进行盈余管理的重要原因,而“陆港通”机制开通后,能够缓解标的公司代理矛盾,进而约束管理层的真实盈余管理行为。(3)当资本市场信息环境改善、管理层面临较大股票抛售压力以及大股东监督力度较强时,“陆港通”抑制企业真实盈余管理行为的治理效果更强。本文结果表明,资本市场开放有助于提高我国上市公司财务信息披露质量及公司治理水平。     

资本市场开放与企业真实盈余管理——基于“陆港通”的经验证据

资本市场开放不仅是扩大国际融资、更好地利用国际金融市场的需要,而且对我国资本市场发育和上市公司行为具有多重外部治理效应。本文借助我国内地与香港资本市场互联互通机制这一准自然实验,研究资本市场开放对企业真实盈余管理的影响。研究发现:(1)总体上,“陆港通”机制的实施显著降低了标的公司真实盈余管理程度。(2)委托代理问题是企业进行盈余管理的重要原因,而“陆港通”机制开通后,能够缓解标的公司代理矛盾,进而约束管理层的真实盈余管理行为。(3)当资本市场信息环境改善、管理层面临较大股票抛售压力以及大股东监督力度较强时,“陆港通”抑制企业真实盈余管理行为的治理效果更强。本文结果表明,资本市场开放有助于提高我国上市公司财务信息披露质量及公司治理水平。     

Exploring the nexus between financial openness and informational efficiency – does the quality of institution matter?

This article examines the empirical link between financial openness and informational efficiency of stock markets in 27 emerging markets. Improving on earlier papers, this study has used World Bank’s Worldwide Governance Indicators (WGI) as the proxy of institutional development in dynamic panel data models estimated by generalized method of moments (GMM). Our results show, first, financial liberalization by itself has no impact on enhancing efficiency of stock market. Second, for countries with high level of institutional development, the interaction of trade openness and financial openness become significant. Third, for the same group of countries, interaction effect of financial liberalization and institutional development leads to more efficiency in stock market. Hence, our finding demonstrates the utmost importance of institutional development and its role on liberalization. Our results conclude that institutional development and trade openness are pre-requisites for a country to benefit from financial openness. Our study further provides empirical evidence to theoretical model proposed by Basu and Morey (2005) that governance is the missing link between stock market efficiency and financial liberalization. Our findings suggest that policy makers in developing economies should enhance the quality of their institution in order to optimize the benefits of financial liberalization.     

Structural change and international stock market interdependence: Evidence from Asian emerging markets

This study investigates the evolving pattern of the interdependence among selected Asian emerging markets and three major stock markets (Japan, UK and US). Using rolling cointegration methods and the recently developed algorithms of inductive causation, we found that time-varying cointegration relationships exist among these stock markets. The results indicate that the wave of financial liberalization policies in the early 1990s led to a significant increase in market linkages which was later weakened during the 1997 Asian financial crisis. Furthermore, the data indicate that Japan and the US have the greatest influence on the emerging markets while the influence of Singapore and Thailand has increased since the Asian financial crisis.     

Information asymmetry,cluster trading,and market efficiency: Evidence from the Chinese stock market

This study investigates the effect of asymmetry information and illiquidity related to cluster trading on information integration efficiency in the Chinese stock market. The results show that information asymmetry and illiquidity related to cluster trading both negatively affect market efficiency in the Chinese stock market. While the effect of information asymmetry on market efficiency dominates in the informational period, the effect of illiquidity related to cluster trading dominates in other periods, when trading is less concentrated. Noise trading has a positive effect on market efficiency by greatly reducing the illiquidity related to cluster trading; however, its effect on information asymmetry is not significant. Our results provide insight into investors’ trading strategies.     

The impact of news,oil prices,and global market developments on Russian financial markets1

This paper analyses the impact of news, oil prices, and international financial market developments on daily returns on Russian bond and stock markets. First, regarding returns, energy news affects returns, while news from the war in Chechnya is not significant. Market volatility does not appear to be sensitive to either type of news. Second, a significant effect of the growth in oil prices on Russian stock returns is detected. Third, the international influence on Russian financial markets depends upon the degree of financial liberalization. The higher the degree of financial liberalization, the stronger is the impact of US stock returns on Russian financial markets. In addition, banking reform and interest rate liberalization efforts seem to dictate the globalization of Russian stock markets, while it is the progress in liberalizing securities markets and non‐bank financial institutions that matters more for the globalization of Russian bond markets.     

资本市场开放能抑制企业避税吗——基于沪港通的准自然实验

资本市场开放作为我国金融供给侧改革的重要内容,深刻改变了中国资本市场交易者结构特征,可能对上市公司的自利行为产生深远影响。本文基于沪港通这一准自然实验,研究发现资本市场开放能显著抑制企业的避税行为。影响机制检验表明,资本市场开放不仅有助于提高公司治理水平、抑制高管避税寻租动机,而且有助于改善公司信息质量、增加避税成本,从而降低企业避税水平。进一步研究还发现,这一影响对于税收征管强度较低地区的企业更显著。本文的研究结果表明,沪港通可以作为有效的外部治理机制,促进企业规范自身行为,提高税收征管效率。这为后续进一步深化金融领域开放提供了理论依据。     

股市发展与收入分配不平等

股市发展与收入分配状况的关系是金融理论界和业界广泛关注的问题之一。本文构造全球33个国家从1988年至2013年有关股市发展和收入分配不平等的面板数据,实证研究各国股市发展及自由化改革对其收入分配不平等程度的影响及内在机理。研究发现：首先,一国股市规模越大,由于门槛效应的存在,其收入分配状况趋于恶化,而流动性的提升将在一定程度上改善其收入分配状况。其次,一国股市的发展对不同收入阶层存在不同的影响。最后,股市自由化前后,股市对收入分配状况的影响存在显著差异：股市自由化之后,股市规模的扩大和股市流动性的提升将在一定程度上改善收入分配状况。     

Improving the predictability of the oil–US stock nexus: The role of macroeconomic variables

In this study, we revisit the oil–stock nexus by accounting for the role of macroeconomic variables and testing their in-sample and out-of-sample predictive powers. We follow the approaches of Lewellen (2004) and Westerlund and Narayan (2015), which were formulated into a linear multi-predictive form by Makin et al. (2014) and Salisu et al. (2018) and a nonlinear multi-predictive model by Salisu and Isah (2018). Thereafter, we extend the multi-predictive model to account for structural breaks and asymmetries. Our analyses are conducted on aggregate and sectoral stock price indexes for the US stock market. Our proposed predictive model, which accounts for macroeconomic variables, outperforms the oil-based single-factor variant as well as the constant returns (historical average) model for both in-sample and out-of-sample forecasts. We find that it is important to account for structural breaks in our proposed predictive model, although asymmetries do not seem to improve predictability. In addition, we show that it is important to pre-test the predictors for persistence, endogeneity, and conditional heteroscedasticity, particularly when modeling with high-frequency series. Our results are robust to different forecast measures and forecast horizons and are useful for making effective hedging decisions in the US stock market.     

The comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets

This study investigates the comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets. The sample covers major institutional changes, such as market liberalization and financial crises, so as to examine how the short-term and long-term relations change after such events. The autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) model proposed by Pesaran et al. (2001) is adopted, which allows us to deal with structural breaks easily, and to handle data that have integrals of different orders. Interest rates and foreign reserves are also included in the analysis to reduce potential omitted variable bias. My empirical results suggest that the comovement between exchange rates and stock prices becomes stronger during crisis periods, consistent with contagion or spillover between asset prices, when compared with tranquil periods. Furthermore, most of the spillovers during crisis periods can be attributed to the channel running from stock price shocks to the exchange rate, suggesting that governments should stimulate economic growth and stock markets to attract capital inflow, thereby preventing a currency crisis. However, the industry causality analysis shows the comovement is not stronger for export-oriented industries for all periods, such as industrials and technology industries, thus implying that comovement between exchange rates and stock prices in the Asian emerging markets is generally driven by capital account balance rather than that of trade.     

Tail risk under price limits

This study investigates tail risk dynamics when price limits exist in stock markets, which have not been examined in the previous literature. We present the expected value of tail risk under price limits and then analyze the extent to which such limits affect Korean stock markets when they are eased gradually. The main results are threefold. First, tail risk is seriously underestimated in stock markets with a price limit system. Second, tail risk is a significant risk factor in determining asset prices if price limits are above a certain level (15%). Lastly, related to the Korean economy, tail risk has predictive power to the future stock returns when the price limit is more than 15%. In particular, tail risk has no predictive power until price limits are relaxed to 15%, implying that caution is needed when the effects of tail risk are analyzed in countries where price limits exist.     

Do Market‐based Indicators Anticipate Rating Agencies? Evidence for International Banks

This paper analyses the ability of credit default swap (CDS) spreads, bond spreads and stock prices to anticipate the decisions of the main rating agencies, regarding the largest international banks. Conditional on negative rating events, all the three indicators show significant abnormal changes before both announcements of review and actual credit rating changes, but rating actions still seem to convey new information to the market. Results for positive rating events are less clear‐cut with the market indicators generally showing abnormal behaviours only in conjunction with the events. As for the predictive power of the financial indicators examined, the CDS market is particularly useful for negative events and stock prices for positive events. However, all indicators also send many false signals and are to be interpreted with care.     

The evolution of stock market efficiency in the US: a non-Bayesian time-varying model approach

A non-Bayesian time-varying model is developed by introducing the concept of the degree of market efficiency that varies over time. This model may be seen as a reflection of the idea that continuous technological progress alters the trading environment over time. With new methodologies and a new measure of the degree of market efficiency, we examine whether the US stock market evolves over time. In particular, a time-varying autoregressive (TV-AR) model is employed. Our main findings are: (i) the US stock market has evolved over time and the degree of market efficiency has cyclical fluctuations with a considerably long periodicity, from 30 to 40 years; and (ii) the US stock market has been efficient with the exception of four times in our sample period: during the long recession of 1873–1879; the recession of 1902–1904; the New Deal era; and the recession of 1957–1958 and soon after it. It is then shown that our results are partly consistent with the view of behavioural finance.     

On the Use of the Moving Average Trading Rule to Test for Weak Form Efficiency in Capital Markets

The examination for the possible existence of predictive power in the moving average trading rule has been used extensively to test the hypothesis of weak form market efficiency in capital markets. This work focuses mainly on the study of the variation of the moving average (MA) trading rule performance as a function of the length of the longer MA. Empirical analysis of daily data from NYSE and the Athens Stock Exchange reveal high variability of the performance of the MA trading rule as a function of the MA length and on some occasions the series of successive trading rule total returns is non‐stationary. These findings have direct implications in weak form market efficiency testing. Indeed, given this high variability of the performance of the MA trading rule, by just finding out that trading rules with some specific combinations of MA lengths can or cannot beat the market, as is the case in most of the published work thus far, is not enough evidence for or against the existence of weak form market efficiency. Results also show that on average in about three out of four cases trading rule signals are false, a fact that leaves a lot of space for improved trading rule performance if trading rule signals are combined with other information (e.g. filters, or volume of trade). Finally, some evidence of enhanced trading rule performance for the shorter MA lengths was found. This enhanced performance is partly attributed to the higher probability that a trading rule signal is not a whipsaw, as well as to the larger number of days out‐of‐the‐market which are associated with shorter MA lengths.     

上市公司信息披露“预警制度”的实证分析--兼论我国证券市场的有效性和过度反应

本文主要是对上市公司信息披露新规则颁布实施后上市公司的市场表现所作的实证分析,旨在说明这一新规则是否按照监管当局的意图向市场传递了有效信息,以及市场对这一新规则的反应和表现是否合理,并且通过市场对这一新的信息披露规则的表现尝试从另一个侧面考察我国证券市场的效率问题,本文的研究表明,监管当局为了加强信息披露和保护投资者利益而新规定的预警披露制度很有实际意义,并且市场反映强烈,其设计具有有效性;我国的股票市场还没有达到半强式有效。     

Co-movement of the Chinese and U.S. aggregate stock returns

This article studies the co-movement of the levels, as well as of the volatilities, of the Chinese and U.S. aggregate stock returns in 1995–2014, focusing on the impact of the liberalization of Chinese stock market from 2005. The volatilities of the two returns appear to have started to co-move in 2006. To understand the co-movement, we use the GARCH BEKK method. The result suggests that before 2006, the evolution of the U.S. returns had a tendency to affect the Chinese returns in level and volatility. However, after 2006, the two returns affected each other in a more complex way.     

The effect of the liberalization of the Chinese stock market on returns

We examine the short-term effects of the liberalization of the Chinese stock market on returns. We find a positive and significant abnormal return associated with the announcement of the liberalization of the Shanghai Stock Exchange. Exploiting features of the reform, we are able to compare stocks directly and indirectly affected by the liberalization. We find that all stock prices reflect this announcement premium equally, suggesting that the premium does not reflect an increase in expected liquidity. We further find that observed liquidity, as measured by volume and price impact, did not increase following the liberalization. We conclude that the observed premium reflects a diversification benefit for Chinese investors.     

What matters for financial development? Capital controls,institutions, and interactions

We investigate whether financial openness leads to financial development after controlling for the level of legal development using a panel encompassing 108 countries over the period 1980 to 2000. We also examine the issue of the optimal sequence of liberalization in both goods and financial markets. Our findings suggest that a higher level of financial openness spurs equity market development only if a threshold level of legal development has been attained. On the issue of sequencing, we find that trade openness is a prerequisite for capital account liberalization while banking system development is a precondition for equity market development.     

Are Co-integrated Stock Prices Consistent with the Efficient Market Hypothesis?

This paper responds to the unsatisfactory argument that there is no correspondence between co-integration and the efficient market hypothesis. A law of one co-integrating vector of prices is proposed for the exchange rate and domestic and overseas stock prices. Markets must therefore be efficient in long-run equilibrium because no arbitrage opportunities exist. However, arbitrage activity via the disequilibrium error correction allows above-average (risk-adjusted) returns to be earned in the short run. The elimination of these arbitrage opportunities means that stock market inefficiency in the short run ensures stock market efficiency in the long run.     

International Financial Liberalization and Economic Growth

This paper pulls together existing theory and evidence to assess whether international financial liberalization, by improving the functioning of domestic financial markets and banks, accelerates economic growth. The analysis suggests that the answer is "yes." First, liberalizing restrictions on international portfolio flows tends to enhance stock market liquidity. n turn, enhanced stock market liquidity accelerates economic growth primarily by boosting productivity growth. Second, allowing greater foreign bank presence tends to enhance the efficiency of the domestic banking system. In turn, better-developed banks spur economic growth primarily by accelerating productivity growth. Thus, international financial integration can promote economic development by encouraging improvements in the domestic financial system.