2000—2015年武汉市生态用地时空变化分析

[目的]生态用地是生态文明城市建设、创造美好人居环境的关键。在城市化进程加快的背景下,分析城市生态用地的数量和空间格局变化过程及其生态效应具有重要意义。[方法]文章选用分辨率为30m的2000—2015年3期土地利用覆被数据,采用土地利用动态度、扩展综合指数、土地利用转移矩阵、土地利用转入和转出率、土地利用信息熵等地理计量模型、指标,开展武汉市生态用地时空变化分析。[结果]武汉市生态用地总面积减少,生态用地利用动态度较大,生态用地变化剧烈,其中森林、水体是转为非生态用地最多的地类,耕地是生态用地增加的主要来源。生态用地转出多,转入少,空间分布广且零散。生态用地减少整体上围绕江岸、江汉、武昌等中心城区向城郊呈现"多→少"的扩散形态。黄陂区、江夏区是森林减少的主要地区,蔡甸、新洲、武昌是主要水体转出区。生态用地增加以新洲区、东西湖区的水体和黄陂区的森林为主。生态用地信息熵整体下降,生态用地多样性降低。[结论]武汉市生态用地的变化反映了城市扩张的进程,一定程度上加剧了生态景观格局的破碎度、城市内涝问题,破坏了生态系统的稳定性和多样性。     

基于FLUS模型的景泰县土地利用动态变化与趋势预测

土地利用变化研究是分析土地利用中存在问题的重要环节，开展土地利用动态变化与趋势预测，是加强土地资源管理，提高土地资源利用率的重要保障。本文选取甘肃省景泰县2000年、2010年和2020年三期Landsat-TM/ETM、Landsat 8遥感影像作为基础数据，通过未来土地利用模拟（FLUS）模型分析土地利用发展趋势、预测2030年土地利用格局。结果表明，（1）景泰县土地利用整体动态度变化速率较快，耕地、林地、其他草地、水域、建设用地和其他土地六种地类产生转移的面积占其总面积的6.01%，其他草地为主要的转出型地类，建设用地为转入型，增幅较明显。（2）通过模拟2030年土地利用格局，建设用地集中点由北向南部兰州经济圈转移，自然因素影响下北部水域面积小幅减少，耕地与林地无明显变化，其他草地继续为转出型地类。研究表明FLUS模型预测土地利用格局符合景泰县实际情况，方法切实可行，是开展土地利用变化预测较好的方法，研究结果对优化土地利用结构、编制国土空间总体规划、制定土地管理政策具有重大的指导意义。     

1990—2015年海河流域土地利用时空变化特征及驱动机制研究

［目的］海河流域是我国社会经济发展最为活跃地区之一,在国家经济发展中具有重要战略地位。通过研究海河流域土地利用时空变化特征及驱动机制,为优化海河流域土地利用规划和土地资源管理提供科学依据。［方法］利用ArcGIS和SPSS软件等工具,通过空间分析、相关分析和主成分分析等方法,应用土地利用转移矩阵并结合经济社会和自然驱动因子,探索了1990—2015年海河流域土地利用时空变化特征和驱动机制。［结果］（1）1990—2015年海河流域的主要土地利用类型为耕地、林地、草地,其中建设用地面积变化最为显著,变化率达到3683%; 面积占有率由667%上升到913%。（2）1990—2000年林地、草地、建设用地、未利用地、耕地变化显著, 2000年之后变化幅度减小。不同时间段内,海河流域各种土地利用变化速度基本上具有一致性。（3）从空间上看,北京市的建设用地由中心向外扩张,渤海湾沿岸建设用地扩张明显。草地、未利用土地和耕地面积均呈下降趋势,其中未利用地减少幅度最大,面积下降了1607%。（4）1990—2015年耕地是转出面积最多的土地利用类型,主要转出为建设用地、林地。（5）从驱动机制来看,导致海河流域土地利用方式和目的变化的主要驱动因素为社会经济发展（GDP）、人口增长,其次为气候变化,主要是降水和温度的变化。［结论］1990—2015年该流域社会经济快速发展和城市化进程导致了土地利用类型的显著变化。国家施行的经济、生态政策对海河流域土地利用变化造成一定影响。该时期土地利用变化格局是人类活动和气候变化共同影响的结果。     

山东省生态用地变化及驱动因素影响评价

［目的］研究第二次土地利用现状调查以来山东省生态用地变化特点及驱动因素,评价各类驱动因素对生态用地的影响程度,为科学编制区域空间规划,保护和合理利用生态用地提供参考。［方法］文章构建了全省生态用地转移矩阵,归纳了影响生态因素变化的主要驱动因素,提出了驱动力指数计算方法,定量分析和比对了各驱动因素对生态用地的影响。［结果］2009—2017年生态用地共计转出2048万hm2,占生态用地总面积的472%; 转入316万hm2,占生态用地总面积的072%。8年来全省生态用地净减少1732万hm2,占2009年生态用地总面积的400%。生态用地的流向以耕地最多,向城镇村及工矿用地流出次之,向设施农用地的流出也有较大面积。［结论］（1）在影响生态用地变化的六大驱动因素中,耕地开发和城镇村工矿占用的驱动力指数最高,非耕农业占用对生态用地的变化有一定影响。（2）六大因素中城镇村工矿占用对当地生态环境的破坏力最强。     

烟台市土地利用变化模拟及陆地碳储量变化预测分析

通过FIUS模型模拟烟台2030年土地利用类型分布情况，其中各土地利用类型适宜性符合烟台市国土空间总体规划（2019—2035年）提出的中心城区“一核两翼三板块、一线八廊多组团、一横两纵多中心”格局建设。FIUS模型能够较好地模拟预测未来土地利用类型发展情况。2020—2030年耕地、林地、草地面积持续减少，耕地主要转向人造地表和草地，林地主要转向草地，草地主要转向林地和耕地。湿地和人造地表明显增加，裸地小幅增加，湿地主要是水体转入，人造地表主要是耕地转入。烟台市高固碳量值分布区域主要为森林地区，中值区域分布较广，低值区域主要分布在沿海城市地区。2030年相较于2020年变化不大，固碳量变化较大区域主要为城区向外扩张造成其他土地利用类型转化为建设用地而导致的固碳量下降。     

基于强度分析的湘西州土地利用变化研究

西部大开发以来，我国西部地区经济发展迅速，导致土地利用结构发生改变，为探究湘西州的土地利用格局和变化过程，从而合理利用土地资源、响应生态环境保护。以湘西州2000—2020年每十年为一期的共三期数据，利用强度分析模型自上而下对土地利用变化进行分析。结果表明，研究时段内，湘西州土地利用格局以林地为主，面积占比70%以上；间隔层上，2000—2010年变化缓慢，2010—2020年变化快速，且面积变化有相同趋势；类别层上，建设用地的变化最活跃，林地的变化最稳定，但后者变化面积最大；转移层上，耕地是林地和建设用地增加的主要来源，林地是耕地增加的主要来源，且耕地转换为林地的强度大于林地转换为耕地的强度。西部大开发很大程度上影响了研究区的土地利用变化，如何集约用地是目前开发面临的重要问题。     

基于GIS和空间计量的耕地利用转型时空格局及其驱动机制研究

研究目的:分析耕地利用转型过程的时空格局演化及其趋势变化,在理论分析基础上探究耕地利用转型的驱动机制。研究方法:GIS、地学图谱分析、空间计量回归模型。研究结果:(1)1990—2000年耕地利用转型最为活跃;2000—2015年耕地利用转型过程在空间上表现出明显的空间集聚性,耕地利用转型过程的时间阶段性特征显著。(2)山东省土地利用形态格局依然存在冲突,耕地利用转型处于从持续快速减少向缓慢减少的过渡阶段。(3)自然条件、社会经济、交通区位和土地管理因素共同驱动耕地利用转型,不同因素对不同时间阶段耕地利用转型驱动机制也存在差异。研究结论:政府在制定相关政策和国土空间规划时应统筹考虑耕地利用转型的驱动因子及区域差异规律,对建设占用耕地加强规划管控,强化耕地保护政策的实施绩效评价。     

近30年来渭河关中地区土地利用时空格局的遥感分析

研究目的：分析近30年来渭河关中地区土地利用时空格局演变过程。研究方法：目视人工遥感解译, GIS空间分析,土地利用转换矩阵。研究结果：渭河关中地区主要的土地覆被类型是耕地,1980 — 1990年、1990 — 2000年两个时期,草地、林地、水域、城镇建设用地转移的主要方向都是耕地。耕地面积在1990 — 2000年之间大幅增加,在2000 — 2005年、2005 — 2007年均呈现减小的趋势。城镇建设用地面积在近30年均持续增大,且增大的速度越来越快。水域面积在1990 — 2000年大幅减小,其中以河渠面积减小最为剧烈。研究结论：土地利用/覆被变化的变化幅度、方向是区域生态系统演变强度和方向的体现,也是该地区人类活动影响剧烈程度的体现。     

内蒙古自治区耕地利用时空变化及效益分析

[目的]基于耕地利用的时序变化对内蒙古耕地的非农化利用的时空分布格局规律、特点与利用效益进行研究,科学有效评价耕地利用效益水平,以期为合理引导内蒙古耕地的可持续利用提供科学依据。[方法]文章基于熵值法、模糊综合评价模型对内蒙古耕地利用近30年的时空变化情况进行分析,分析了其耕地利用的经济效益、社会效益、生态效益。[结果](1) 1991—2000年耕地转出总面积为50.6万hm²,82.15%的耕地流转至草地,从耕地转为草地是造成耕地面积减少的最主要原因。(2) 2001—2010年耕地转出总面积为38.5万hm²,62.62%的耕地转移至草地,该时期耕地转移至草地依旧为主要部分,但比例在下降。(3) 2011—2019年耕地转出总面积141.7万hm²,其中有54%的耕地转移至林地,24%的耕地转移至建设用地,该时期耕地转移至建设用地的比例明显增加。(4)内蒙古的耕地利用效益近30年变化在时间上可分为3个阶段：即1990—2002年经济效益和社会效益发展缓慢,生态效益快速降低的低生产力时期;2003—2011年经济效益...     

吉林省耕地利用碳排放测度及其与粮食生产脱钩分析

[目的]通过分析吉林省县域耕地利用碳排放时空变化、碳排放结构、碳排放空间分布、脱钩效应以及碳排放驱动因素,以期从耕地低碳利用角度,为吉林省农业高质量发展和制定减排政策提供科学参考。[方法]文章运用系数法,计算2000—2020年吉林省47个县域单元的耕地利用碳排放量;采用Tapio脱钩模型,分析耕地利用碳排放与粮食产量之间的脱钩特征;利用空间回归模型,分析耕地利用碳排放的驱动因素。[结果]（1）吉林省县域耕地利用碳排放时空变化特征：2000—2016年吉林省耕地利用碳排放量增长,2016—2020年开始缓慢下降;碳排放结构方面,碳排放量从大到小分别是化肥、翻耕、灌溉、农用柴油、农膜和农药;碳排放空间分布呈现西高东低的格局。（2）耕地利用碳排放与粮食生产脱钩特征：呈现强脱钩和弱脱钩特征的县域数量增多,呈现强负脱钩和扩张性负脱钩特征的县域数量减少;吉林省东部地区的县域脱钩特征逐渐优于西部地区,吉林省整体县域的脱钩特征朝着理想状态发展。（3）耕地利用碳排放量驱动因素分析结果表明：人均农业GDP、农村用电量、农业机械化程度和化肥施用强度因素对耕地利用碳排放量为正向驱动,城镇化率对耕地利用碳排放...     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

Malaria incidence and agricultural efficiency in Uganda

The cost of accessing healthcare can be a major determinant of disease prevalence, which in turn has short‐ and long‐term welfare implications on poor households. In response, governments in developing countries often resort to subsidizing the cost of drugs, which, while perhaps easier to administer, may not always be the most effective way of addressing healthcare cost. In this regard, we analyze the impact of different types of household level health expenses on disease incidence and agricultural production efficiency. We use data from the 2006 Uganda National Household Survey, which covered approximately 7,400 households. The results suggest that a 10% increase in consultation, medicine, and hospitalization expenses would reduce malaria incidence respectively by 35.6%, 20.5%, and 21.3 %, which translates into a 1.1%, 0.6%, and 0.6 % decrease in agricultural inefficiency, respectively. The results indicate that helping poor households meet expenses for consultation through subsidies or eliminating consultation fees has a larger impact on malaria incidence and agricultural productivity among poor rural households than subsidizing the cost of medical drugs, the most common avenue chosen by developing country governments in the fight against the disease.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.