How to View the Problems in China‘s Economy？——In Response to the Notion of “Coming Collapse of China”

Of late,some scholars at home and abroad have presented or played up the notion that China is about to collapse,arousing a good deal of reaction and concern internationally.Chinese scholars and economists have responded to the notion from different angles.Printed here below are the views of Dr.Fan Gang.It is hoped that more people of insight would join the discussion.     

Who is Going to Supply the Milk to China＇s South？

China＇s dairy industry has experienced rapid expansion in recent years, with an average annual growth rate of 23.8 percent from 2000 to 2006. However, there exists a serious geographical distribution imbalance in milk production and consumption. Approximately 85 percent of China＇s milk is produced in northern China, where 40 percent of the country＇s population reside. In contrast, only about 15 percent of the milk is produced in China＇s south, where 60percent of China＇s population reside. This has resulted in a significant gap between milk production and consumption in southern China and this gap is expected to rise. This paper considers China＇s milk demand and supply situation, analyzes the likely potential for China to expand its milk production and explores options for meeting milk demand-supply shortages. Policy and trade implications are discussed.     

In the Eyes of the State: Negotiating a “Rights-Based Approach” to Forest Conservation in Thailand

Recent debates about governance, poverty and environmental sustainability have emphasized a “rights-based” approach, in which equitable development is strongly associated with individual and communal rights. This paper reviews this approach and explores its practical application to Thailand's “Community Forestry Bill,” which seeks to establish communal rights of access and conservation in forest reserve areas. The paper examines conflicts concerning watershed forests and mangroves in Thailand, and argues that efforts to support rural livelihoods through community rights have been undermined by a state that has frequently supported commercial interests or opposed decentralization to minority groups. The paper documents how civil society organizations may negotiate rights within the wider public spheres in which rules, rights, and “community” are established, and defended.     

Theory of the degree of trust： Toward to the economy of trust The new paradigm

Each company has to reopen different new methods and means in order to maintain high degree of competitive power on the market. The theory of trust developed by the author on the ground of his observations of many years on the market and formed respectively in theory and laws and practices to be applied in the contemporary life of every company, acting on the market have been presented. The theory gives every company concrete decisions to reach a better competitive power on the market in the globalization. The described below theory of degree of trust was developed by Dobrev, M. as a president of consulting company ＂D＆M Dobrev Consulting House＂ （Dobrev, M., 1993）for analysis and trading.     

Unsustainable sovereign debt—is the Euro crisis only the tip of the iceberg?

As a direct effect of the financial crisis in 2008, public debt began to accumulate rapidly, eventually leading to the European sovereign debt crisis. However, the dramatic increase in government debt is not only happening in European countries. All major G7 countries are experiencing similar developments. What are the implications of this kind of massive deficit and debt policy for the long term stability of these economies? Are there limits in debt-ratios that qualitatively change policy options? While theory can easily illustrate these limits, where are these limits in real economies? This paper examines the relationship between sovereign debt dynamics and capital formation, and accounts for the effects of the 2008 financial crisis on debt sustainability for the four largest advanced economies. We contribute to the literature on fiscal sustainability by framing the problem in an OLG model with government debt, physical capital, endogenous interest rates, and exogenous growth. For the calibration exercise we extract data from the OECD for Germany as a stabilization anchor in Europe, the US, the UK, and Japan for almost two decades before the 2008 crisis. Except for intertemporal preferences, all parameters are drawn or directly derived from the OECD database, or endogenously determined within the model. The results of the calibration exercise are alarming for all four countries under consideration. We identify debt ceilings that indicate a sustainable and unsustainable regime. For 2011 all four economies are either close to, or have already passed the ceiling. The results call for a dramatic readjustment in budget policies for a consolidation period and long-term fiscal rules that make it possible to sustain sufficient capital intensity so that these economies can maintain their high income levels. Current conditions are already starting to restrict policy choices. However, the results also make it very clear that none of these economies would survive a second financial crisis such as the one in 2008.     

How to Determine the Financial Structure of an Enterprise

The financial structure is the proportion of every part of the capital in an enterprise. Whether the financial structure is scientific or not has an important impact on the risk degree, development prospect and profit-making ability of the enterprise. In this thesis, the author will discuss how to determine the financial structure of an enterprise scientifically.     

The Application of ABC in the Logistics Enterprises to Account the Cost

The cost of the production in logistics enterprises is difficult to be accounted because the activity process is very complex compared with the common enterprises. Applying the ABC into the logistics enterprises to account the cost might clarity the resource used and get the cost of the production （service） and control the whole cost by analyzing the value chain.     

Introduction to the School of Economics and Management of Dalian Maritime University

Dalian Maritime University is Chinese comprehensive university featuring navigation, which enjoys a high reputation both at home and abroad regarding maritime affairs. Among the 17 teaching units in Dalian Maritime University, the School of Economics and Management has 1 doctorate program on the management science and engineering; 3 master programs on corporation management, international economy and trade,[第一段]     

Economic Implications of China‘s Accession to the WTO

I. IntroductionChina's accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO) on 11 December 2001 was a monumental event. Never has an accession to the WTO stirred up such intense emotions throughout the world: euphoria, envies, and, above all, fears. Workers on both sides of the Pacific Ocean and beyond have genuine fears of losing their jobs. Governments and entrepreneurs from both developing and developed countries are afraid of     

How Sensitive is the Demand for Primary Education to Changes in Economic Factors?

During the recession in the 1970s and 1980s in less-developedcountries in general and in Zambia in specific, private costsof schooling increased and school quality deteriorated. Combinedwith poverty, these changes may have damaged the demand forprimary education. This observation motivated a study of therelationship between economic variables and the demand for primaryeducation. A binary choice model for the school enrolment decisionis estimated, and the relevance of economic incentives concerningthe decision to enrol in school is tested directly. Economicincentives to enrol in school are reflected in household income,educational expenses and quality indicators, and the resultsshow that they all affect school enrolment as expected, eventhough the magnitudes of the effects are relatively moderate.     

Industrial development in the daimyô domain and economic modernization of Japan – With special references to the Awa indigo industry in the province of Awa-Tokushima from the Tokugawa period to the Meiji period

This paper aims to clarify how pre-conditions to economic development in modern Japan had been prepared. Specifically speaking, it takes as an example the case of the Awa indigo industry and explores how the development of this industry contributed to the economic modernization in Tokushima prefecture. The Awa indigo industry enjoyed rapid progress and development in the Tokugawa period. It is undeniable the accumulated capital in the late Tokugawa period contributed as a cornerstone to the economic modernization in Meiji Tokushima prefecture. This paper also mentions the influence of imported indigo on the Awa indigo industry after the opening of Japan to foreign trade. The Awa indigo industry seems to have suffered from the expanding inflow of foreign indigo. The stagnancy of the Awa indigo industry in the middle of Meiji period must have restrained modern industrial development in Tokushima prefecture.     

The Financial Support of Financial Institution to the Western Regional Economy under the Economic Structure Condition of the Geography Dual Economy

One of Chinese economy characteristics is the geography dual-economy structure between the westem and eastem area. A feasible method to improve the structure between the westem and eastem of our country is to study utilizing financial support, especially the financial support function of the medium and small financial institutions in the west, to accelerate the economic development of the western region.     

On the choice of an anchor for the GCC currency: does the symmetry of shocks extend to both the oil and the non-oil sectors?

This paper assesses the costs of forming a monetary union among the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries by looking at economic linkages within the GCC, and between the GCC and the potential anchors (the US, and major European countries such as France, Germany and Italy) for their proposed new currency. We investigate the importance of the US dollar compared to the Euro by focusing on aggregate demand (AD) and aggregate supply (AS) shock symmetry across these countries. We differentiated between oil and non-oil sector by estimating structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models with a combination of variables: oil output, non-oil output, total output, nominal/real price of oil and overall price level. One set of models was identified with the long-run restrictions of Blanchard and Quah (Am Econ Rev 79(4):655–673, 1989), whereas the set that assesses the robustness of the findings was estimated with the short-run restrictions of Sims (Eur Econ Rev 36(5):975–1000, 1992). We find overwhelming support for AD shock symmetry across the GCC countries and between the GCC and the US, but none for the major European countries with the GCC. Non-oil AS shocks are mostly asymmetric, but oil AS shocks are mostly symmetric when the real price of oil is included. This agrees with the view that GCC countries are subjected to common oil shocks. It also suggests that previous VAR models estimated to pass judgment on the feasibility of monetary union across GCC countries may have suffered from problems of mis-specification if the real price of oil was not considered. We surmise that the US dollar is a better anchor candidate for anchoring the new GCC currency than the Euro, since US monetary policy can at least help smooth demand shocks in these countries.     

Why Is the Farmers'''' Propensity to Consume Lower Than That of the Urban Residents?

I. IntroductionIts a generally accepted observation, which is supported by Keysians theory of absoluteincome, that Chinas low-income regions have a higher rate of consumption out of incomethan do the high-income regions, and in urban areas, low-income households have a higherrate of consumption than that of the high-income ones. However, for more than 20 yearssince the initiation of economic reforms and opening up, the consumption rate of thefarmers, who are in the low-income group, has been …     

An overview of the capacity of existing institutions and structures in the less developed areas of Southern Africa to achieve rural development∗

A basic assumption of this paper is that the ultimate aim of rural development is to promote the well‐being of rural people. A conceptual framework is given of the interrelatedness of various subsystems in the rural development process, as well as of institutions which are necessary for successful rural development.

This paper systematically highlights important industrial and related operational factors responsible for the general failure of rural development efforts, and also focuses on the obstacles, limitations and constraints which have thwarted success. It is clear from the review of development institutions and their functional components that the present institutional arrangements for rural development in Southern Africa do not have a high probability of success due to glaring deficiencies. Changes must be brought about in the organisation and management of bureaucracies before rural development is likely to have any major impact.     

What is happening to China's GDP statistics?

This paper argues that official Chinese statistics contain major exaggerations of real output growth beginning 1998. The standard data contain numerous inconsistencies. Chinese commentaries castigate widespread falsification at lower levels and question the autheticity of figures emanating from the central statistical authorities. The author speculates that cumulative GDP growth during 1997/2001 was no more one-third of official claims, and possibly much smaller.     

Were Information Intermediaries Sensitive to the Financial Statement‐Based Leading Indicators of Bank Distress Prior to the Financial Crisis?

In this paper, we address two questions that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial/banking crisis. First, did the financial statements of bank holding companies provide an early warning of their impending distress? Second, were the actions of four key financial intermediaries (short sellers, equity analysts, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and auditors) sensitive to the information in the banks’ financial statements about their increased risk and potential distress? We find a significant cross‐sectional association between banks’ 2006 Q4 financial information and bank failures over 2008–2010, suggesting that the financial statements reflected at least some of the increased risk of bank distress in advance. The mean abnormal short interest in our sample of banks increased from 0.66 percent in March 2005 to 2.4 percent in March 2007 and the association between short interest and leading financial statement indicators also increased. In contrast, we observe neither a meaningful change in analysts’ recommendations, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and audit fees nor an increased sensitivity of these actions to financial indicators of bank distress over this time period. Our results suggest that actions of short sellers likely provided an early warning of the banks’ upcoming distress prior to the 2008 financial crisis.