The Era of finance: Proposals for the future

Finance, the economic activity intermediating between savings and investments, is probably the first to reach the stage of globalization; as a consequence, the financial sector is taking a leading position in modern economic systems. While the world expects from financial efficiency an increasingly positive contribution to welfare, it appears that recent developments of financial leadership in an increasingly deregulated world system, are also acting negatively on world welfare. In many aspects, it can be established that finance is crisis prone, induces deflationary biases and stimulates speculative behaviour: crisis, deflation and speculation are often harmful to the real economy. A set of proposals are made in order to improve world financial stabilization, promote growth and encourage the spirit of enterprise, as a way of enhancing the future contribution of financial activities to world welfare.     

银行间债市收益率上扬的成因及后市展望

自2013年6月以来,利率的上行趋势已从货币市场利率扩散到中长端国债收益率,并蔓延到短端收益率。回归分析结果表明,经济基本面和资金面仅可部分解释国债收益率的上涨。文章进一步分析指出,货币政策维持中性偏紧趋向、金融机构调整资产配置结构削减债券投资额度、银行筹资方式多元化推高资金成本这三大因素,也是引起本轮利率接力上行的显著外力。中长期看,债券市场收益率中枢将随之抬升。在中性偏紧的货币政策基调没有改变前,债券市场将只有阶段性回嗳而无趋势性好转的行情。     

伊斯兰金融的未来

回顾伊斯兰金融的发展历程,从1963年成立首家伊斯兰银行,到2007年伊斯兰金融资产达到3000亿美元,伊斯兰金融发展迅速。文章通过实例剖析了伊斯兰债券与资产支持证券的异同,并从伊斯兰债券的金融本质入手,从宏观的角度展开对伊斯兰金融的未来前景的探讨,指出伊斯兰金融是传统伊斯兰融资体系适应全球化经济下的一种新模式探索,并期待着伊斯兰现代主义能够更好地促进伊斯兰金融的发展和成熟,使伊斯兰社会更好地融合到全球化的经济发展中。     

What Is Systemic Risk?

The traditional view of risk in a financial system is that it is the summation of individual risks within the system. However, the financial crisis that started in 2007 has driven home that this view of risk is inadequate. It is the interactions of financial institutions and markets that determine the systemic risks that drive financial crises. We identify four types of systemic risk. These are (i) panics—banking crises due to multiple equilibria; (ii) banking crises due to asset price falls; (iii) contagion; and (iv) foreign exchange mismatches in the banking system.     

The consolidation of the financial services industry: Causes,consequences, and implications for the future

This article designs a framework for evaluating the causes, consequences, and future implications of financial services industry consolidation, reviews the extant research literature within the context of this framework (over 250 references), and suggests fruitful avenues for future research. The evidence is consistent with increases in market power from some types of consolidation; improvements in profit efficiency and diversification of risks, but little or no cost efficiency improvement on average; relatively little effect on the availability of services to small customers; potential improvements in payments system efficiency; and potential costs on the financial system from increases in systemic risk or expansion of the financial safety net.     

金融宏观审慎监管：趋势、挑战与中国适用前瞻

国际金融危机促使国际金融组织和各国重新审视金融监管的诸多重大问题．建立防范系统性风险的金融宏观审慎监管制度已经成为普遍共识和各国适用方案的重中之重。吸取全球金融危机的教训和经验。中国已正式将构建逆周期的金融宏观审慎管理制度框架写入“十二五”规划。本文对后危机时期国际金融宏观审慎监管的发展趋势作了分析,结合我国防范系统性风险的金融监管现状和特点,剖析了我国建立以逆周期管理为重要内容的宏观审慎监管制度框架所面临的挑战,并提出了我国构建宏观审慎监管体系的对策和建议。     

宏观审慎：概念、国际实践和启示

此轮国际金融危机的爆发和蔓延,暴露出仅关注单个机构稳健经营的微观审慎监管框架的不足。认真吸取金融危机的教训,强化宏观审慎管理已成为国际社会的共识。要完善宏观审慎分析方法,加强对系统性风险的监测;加强金融监管和协调,实现宏观审慎与微观审慎的互补;建立逆周期调节机制,缓解顺周期性对金融稳定的影响;加快建立存款保险制度,进一步健全金融安全网;积极参与国际金融合作,增强联合应对危机的能力。     

构建我国中性税制的设想

目前,我国财政政策已由“积极”转向“稳健”,税收作为财政的一个重要组成部分,应积极响应财政政策。我国现阶段通过以减税为特征的税种“中性化”来构建的“中性税制”,既符合市场经济发展的要求,又不会影响到财政收入,而且能积极响应稳健财政政策的实施。构建我国现阶段“中性税制”,必须“充分体现税收中性,并适当坚持税收调控”这一核心。     

我国农村金融组织体系的功能制约及治理路径研究

本文从金融发展视角出发,分析了我国农村金融组织体系的功能制约特征,并以此为依据,提出了功能制约的治理路径,认为应对我国现有农村金融组织体系进行功能重构,并提出了重构后我国农村金融组织体系应有的功能框架。     

The future and dynamics of global systemically important banks

The purpose of this paper is to analyse some of the issues associated with supervision and regulation of global systemically important banks, G-SIB. The paper highlights the importance of managing liquidity risk and creating a global financial system that can minimise regulatory arbitrage by large financial institutions. The paper argues that, unlike some industries such as the airline industry in which risk has been contained and yet the size and capacity of aircrafts have increased, in the banking system, less progress has been made to contain financial risk and allow large banks to expand their global activities. The paper argues that G-SIB are able to continue remaining large provided that a globally integrated financial system ensures effective global supervision of these large banks. The paper compares the US banking crises in the 19th century and the subsequent emergence of the US Federal Reserve System to the possibility of establishing a world central bank and a global supervisory board. Such new global institutions will have the capacity to reduce regulatory arbitrage, increase effective supervision, reduce systemic and liquidity risk and create a more stable global financial system.     

金融资源论:对金融功能观与金融机构观的综合研究

金融资源论的提出是对金融基础理论研究的一次重大挑战.从金融机构观向金融功能观的演进是金融理论对现实世界变化的一种回应,金融资源论的提出同样是如此.金融资源的三个层次其实可以分为实体部分和功能部分,这两部分的主要内容和研究思路分别与金融机构观和金融功能观相对应.由此可见,在金融资源论与金融机构观和金融功能观之间存在着某种逻辑联系,即金融资源论是对金融机构观与金融功能观的一种综合,具有更为开阔的理论研究视角.这既为金融资源论构建了更为坚实的理论基础,也为金融资源论的进一步完善拓展了空间.     

Corporate portfolio management

Summary We solve the optimal portfolio problem in continuous time from the point of view of a corporation, acting on behalf of risk neutral shareholders. Our model fits for example the case of a commercial bank. Risk aversion is generated endogenously by financial frictions, and increases when the value of the firm’s assets decrease. We find a remarkably simple investment policy: invest a multiple of the firm’s equity into the risky asset, keep the rest as cash reserves, and distribute dividends when the value of the firm exceeds some threshold. As a consequence, the firm locally behaves as a Von Neumann-Morgenstern investor with constant relative risk aversion.We thank three anonymous referees for their comments.     

The financial close process: Implications for future research

This study advances our understanding of the current financial close process. Attention to the topic is warranted for four reasons. First, economic volatility and growth in restatements have increased pressure on companies to report performance timely, completely, and accurately to market participants. Second, recent regulations have increased the workload for accountants at period end thus negatively impacting the efficiency of the close process. Third, several SEC filings have contained control weaknesses related to the financial close process. Finally, academic research suggests that the time needed to complete the financial close process may serve as a proxy for a company's internal information environment quality. We draw upon prior research and conduct a field investigation with corporate financial officers from 22 different organizations to examine the role of four factors – need to meet expectations, collaboration among multiple participants, estimation process, and ability to incorporate new regulations – in the financial close process. Results suggest that researchers should examine further how the need to meet (or beat) expectations impacts management's actions and the effectiveness and efficiency of the financial close process. Future work could also explore how hidden profile task research and technology advances may improve the financial close process. Finally, research needs to examine how ex post estimate analysis may improve not only estimate quality but also the effectiveness and efficiency of the financial close process.     

构建浙江省现代金融服务体系的保障机制研究

从系统论和功能观角度来看,区域性现代金融服务体系的保障机制主要是基于三个维度,即防范区域金融风险、强化区域金融功能和促进区域金融创新。具体而言,一个比较完整的现代金融服务体系保障机制至少应该包括以下三方面内容,即完善的区域金融监管体系,完备的信用保障机制和立体的金融人才培养体系。现代金融服务体系保障机制的三方面内容与三个维度之间存在着多向关联和相互作用。需要因地制宜,构建符合地方经济金融发展需要的现代金融服务体系保障机制。     

Impact of financial investment on confidence in a happy future retirement

The study examines the impact of financial investment on the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement using data from 735 respondents in the Bank Consortium Holding Limited (BCT) Public Opinion Survey on Retirement Happiness in 2017. The result shows that holding the investment portfolio with savings and risky assets positively and significantly correlates with the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement life. This relationship is more pronounced for those with a positive attitude toward life, better financial literacy, and voluntary contribution to the retirement account. The result is robust after using the propensity score matching (PSM) approach, placebo test, alternative regression model, and the independent variables and control for additional variables. Further analysis shows that the positive relationship between holding the investment portfolio and the individual's confidence in a happy future retirement life is not driven by individuals' income, assets, and location. This paper provides empirical evidence to guide citizens' investments and improve the pension system to cope with the aging population in Hong Kong.     

美国金融安全审查的新趋向、影响及应对——以《外国公司问责法》为切入

美国作为金融发达国家,也是金融安全审查十分严厉的国家,其建立了从准入前、准入时到准入后直到市场化退出的全过程安全审查机制。其金融安全审查因《外国公司问责法》经过参众两院通过而进一步强化。通过实证分析美国安全审查实践和制度演变,能够清晰发现其金融安全审查范围不断扩张、审查标准模糊性愈发明显、歧视性针对性愈加增强,且美国将法律作为其金融霸权和政治打压的制度性工具之特质。这一核心观点突出表现在该法的政治化倾向和长臂管辖实质、商业问题及其监管政治化内核等层面。我国金融开放新阶段下,美国金融安全审查的新趋向需要我们依法积极应对。     

Rating systems,procyclicality and Basel II: an evaluation in a general equilibrium framework

The introduction of Basel II has raised concerns about the potential impact of risk-sensitive capital requirements on the business cycle. Several approaches have been proposed to assess the procyclicality issue. In this paper, we adopt a general equilibrium model and conduct comprehensive analysis of different proposals. We set out a model that allows to evaluate different rating systems in relation to the procyclicality issue. Our model extends previous models by analysing the effects of different rating systems on banks’ portfolios (as in Catarineu et al. in Econ Theory 26:537–557, 2005) and the contagion effects relevant to financial stability (as in Goodhart et al. in Ann Finance 1:197–224, 2005). The paper presents comparative statics results comparing a cycle-dependent and a neutral rating system from the point of view of banks profit maximization. Our results suggest that banks’ preferences about point in time or through the cycle rating systems depend on the banks’ characteristics and on the business cycle conditions in terms of expectations and realizations.     

财务会计的本质、特点及其边界

为了指明财务会计的本质特点 ,我认为财务报表是财务报告的中心部分 ,而报表附注、其他财务报告等传送财务信息方法仅是次要的手段。在财务报表上确认的任何项目 ,都必须符合可定义性、可计量性、相关性与可靠性的特征。会计程序包括计量、记录和报告都必须以确认为基础。因此 ,财务报表的信息可以按真实和公允的要求来描述财务业绩和现金流量。财务会计的基本职能既不试图提供可能的未来的信息 ,又不产生非财务信息。财务会计的主要目的是通过它的报表反映一个企业经济活动及其结果的真实图像。结论 :财务会计作为一门学科是历史科学 ;作为一项实务是一个信息系统 ,它的任务是为企业提供历史的财务信息。     

The future of fintech

This article describes the growing field of financial technology (fintech) and the different financial paradigms and technologies that support it. Fintech is primarily a disintermediation force where disruptive technologies are the drivers. This framework discusses 10 primary areas in fintech comprising a taxonomy, which categorizes research in the field and also proposes a pedagogical structure. Pitfalls of fintech are also analyzed. Overall, the great strides made in computing technology, mathematics, statistics, psychology, econometrics, linguistics, cryptography, big data, and computer interfaces have combined to create an explosion of fintechs.     

上市公司财务欺诈问题的研究

目前,对于财务欺诈的研究,集中在成因理论和制度防范上,大多采用规范分析的方法。本文从财务欺诈的成因分析入手,结合我国证券市场己披露案例的研究,我国证券市场的现状,深入分析了财务欺诈的成因。主要有外部环境制度上的缺失因素,也存在企业内部治理结构缺陷的影响。尤其在我国特殊的市场体制下,财务欺诈更是有它自身形成的诱因,阐述了从独立审计的角度,建立应对财务欺诈的防范体系的对策。