Liquidity Provision and Financial Stability

When financial intermediaries' key characteristic is provision of liquidity through their liabilities, with financial frictions, the financial sector in the aggregate is likely to overaccumulate equity, thus decreasing liquidity provision and household welfare. Aggregate household welfare is therefore decreasing in the level of aggregate intermediary equity even though the individual value of intermediaries is increasing in equity, which is why intermediaries overaccumulate equity. Subsidizing intermediary dividends can improve welfare by encouraging earlier payout and decreasing aggregate equity in the financial sector. This policy increases the likelihood that intermediaries provide more liquidity and improves the stability of the economy, even though asset prices fall.     

Science and policy in designing complex futures

Many complex systems scientists are motivated by making changes to socio-technical systems. Change also motivates policy makers. Thus, both aspire to design new systems and trajectories through time. Science has always been used to forecast the implications of policy. Traditional science predicts system states at precise points in time. Usually point predictions are impossible in the science of complex systems. Most scientists cannot perform in vivo experiments on complex socio-technical systems. They have neither the mandate nor the budget. Massive advances in ICT enable simulation as a powerful new in silico experimental methodology. However, complex systems scientists are unable to collect the huge databases necessary to plan and manage heterogeneous multilevel socio-technical systems—these data are collected by public and private agencies according to perceived policy needs. Most implemented policies are experiments, but the outcome of policy is rarely monitored from a scientific research perspective. To test in silico forecasts against in vivo observation requires data owned by policy makers, requiring completely new data collection protocols that have to be aligned with policy makers. Complex systems scientists must make an obvious added-value contribution to policy, making explicit their role as designers with their science fitting into the policy-driven process of designing, planning, managing and controlling real complex socio-technical systems. Remaining in the loop is essential for policy makers to maintain control over policy objectives as they co-evolve towards the delivered design solution and its implementation.     

FINANCIAL MARKETS, PUBLIC POLICY, AND THE EAST ASIAN MIRACLE

Many factors contributed to the rapid growth of the economiesof East Asia in the past quarter century. This article examinesone important aspect of that growth—commonly referredto as the "East Asian miracle"—public policies affectingthe financial markets. East Asian governments intervened extensivelyin financial markets at all stages of their development. Whatsets their actions apart from those of other developing countriesthat have not fared as well? We do not have the informationto answer conclusively what effect particular actions had (thatrequires a counterfactual test of what growth would have beenwithout the particular intervention). But we can identify themarket failures the East Asian governments addressed, assesssome of the theoretical reasons why each policy might be growthenhancing, and provide some data attesting to the impacts ofthe policy. Several characteristics of financial sector interventionsin East Asia stand out: they incorporated design features thatimproved the chances of success and reduced opportunities forabuse; interventions that did not work out were dropped unhesitatingly;and policies were adapted to reflect changing economic conditions.      

Inventory Dynamics and Business Cycles: What Has Changed?

To what extent can information-technology led improvements in inventory management account for the apparent moderation of economic fluctuations in the United States since the mid-1980s? We argue that changes in inventory dynamics played a reinforcing—rather than a leading—role in the reduction of output volatility. Since the mid-1980s, inventory dynamics have changed in a manner consistent with a faster resolution of inventory imbalances. However, these changes appear to be a consequence of changes in the response of industry-level sales and aggregate economic activity to monetary policy shocks. Our results suggest that it is the interaction between the changes in inventory behavior at the industry level and the macroeconomic environment—where the latter likely includes changes in the conduct of monetary policy and the responses of the economy to policy disturbances—rather than any single factor, that has contributed importantly to the observed decline in economic volatility.     

“稳增长”与“去杠杆”目标下的双支柱政策协调——基于供求冲击和金融摩擦视角

构建带有金融摩擦的DSGE模型,研究在供给面和需求面冲击下,各种不同类型的双支柱政策组合对稳增长与去杠杆的调控效果及传导机制。结果表明：当遇到技术冲击时,单独使用货币政策改变信贷供给状况可以较好地维护宏观经济的稳定,这也是金融危机之前未重视宏观审慎政策而只是强调货币政策控制经济周期波动的原因所在。面对正向房地产需求冲击,不适用于单纯采取大幅加息等总量措施,而应配合采取收紧LTV等宏观审慎政策,更有针对性地对房地产市场适度降温,避免对整体经济造成冲击,利率政策与LTV政策使经济增长和杠杆率的波动相对较小,政策组合更有效。     

社会融资规模作为我国货币政策中介目标的有效性分析—基于M2和人民币贷款的比较

本文立足社会融资规模作为中介目标的货币政策传导机制,构建完善的货币政 策目标指标体系,选取M2和人民币贷款为社会融资规模的对比指标,基于向自回归（VAR） 模型,利用2002年至2017年6月的季度数据,通过协整检验、格兰杰因果检验和脉冲响应等方 法,对社会融资规模与货币政策最终目标、操作目标之间的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表 明,现阶段社会融资规模作为我国货币政策中介目标具有较高的有效性和合理性。     

Prediction accuracy and the Canadian federal budget

It is generally recognized that governments cannot accurately predict annual budget balances. This paper examines the record of ‘fiscal marksmanship’ for the Canadian Federal Government for the period 1949–1978 and attempts to explain why significant errors in tax, expenditure and budget result outcomes occurred. Using a measure of inequality, errors are classified into three distinct categories to isolate random as compared to consistent errors. These errors are then related to a series of exogenous shocks on the economy and unexpected policy impacts.     

Back to basics: What do we mean by environmental (and social) accounting and what is it for?—A reaction to Thornton

This paper seeks to explore whether mainstream financial accounting when it appears to genuflect to the ‘environment’ actually has anything substantive do with – or to say about – the natural world. It seems important to remember that conventional financial accounting is a predominantly economic – and not very internally logical – practice which has no substantive conceptual space for environmental or social matters per se. It has no space for what Thielemann calls ‘market alien values’ – values such as environmental concern. The paper re-examines why we might account at all and revisits why accounts which explicitly recognise environmental (and social) issues can be potentially very important indeed. What seems clear is that whilst any account that sought to reflect environmental and social exigencies might choose to use the technologies of accounting – notably debits and credits – there is no essential reason why they must do so. If we wish to account for an environment, we almost certainly would not start with the somewhat bizarre and tortured foundations of conventional financial accounting.     

会计准则的产生与制定权归属的经济学解释——来自企业所有权理论的观点

本文从新制度经济学的企业所有权理论出发,对会计准则的产生及其制定权的归属提出经济解释。会计准则的产生与制定权的归属缘于降低交易费用的需要。为什么可以降低交易费用,有学者从索取权出发进行了分析,本文则从控制权的角度进行了讨论:为了遏制经理的“特定控制权收益”,政府拥有了会计准则的制定权,而经理仅拥有了在会计准则框架内作出会计判断的权力。本文认为控制权角度的解释在以股份公司为主的经济环境中是更加有力的。     

Macroeconomic factors and yield curve for the emerging Indian economy

This article investigates the dynamic linkages between the estimated parameters of a zero coupon yield curve and macroeconomic variables like inflation, gross domestic product growth in the presence of a monetary policy indicator in India for the period July 1997 to February 2004. The study finds that there exists strong causality from financial factors, defined by three parameters of the yield curves (‘Level’, ‘Slope’, ‘Curvature’) to macroeconomic factors; growth, inflation and monetary policy indicators (changes in the call money rate). However, the causality in the opposite direction is found to be weaker. It is found that theyield and macro factors do not cause each other before the launch of a liquidity adjustment facility, so the evidence of causality from financial to macroeconomic factors can be attributed to the introduction of a liquidity adjustment facility in June 2000. The causality from yield factors to macro factors is primarily driven by the fact that the ‘changes in level’ of yield curve brings an impact on inflation through the changes in monetary policy. This finding suggests that monetary policy plays a key role in driving the causality. This also implies that the indirect instrument of monetary policy mechanism is becoming increasingly important to influence the aggregate demand in the economy.     

A public good model with lotteries in large groups

We analyze the effect of a large group on a public goods model with lotteries. We show that as populations get large, and with preferences in which people only care about their private consumptions and the total supply of the public good, the level of contributions converges to the one given by voluntary contributions. With altruistic preferences of the warm-glow type, the contributions converge to a level strictly higher than those given by voluntary contributions, but in general they do not yield first-best levels. Our results are important to clarify why in general governments do not rely on lotteries for a large part of the revenue creation for public good provision. They are also useful to understand why lottery proceeds are earmarked to worthy causes, where warm glow is likely to be larger.     

A general theory of controllability and expectations anchoring for small-open economies

Rational expectations are often used as an argument against policy activism, as they may undermine or neutralize the policymaker’s actions. Although this sometimes happens, rational expectations do not always imply policy invariance or ineffectiveness. In fact, in certain circumstances rational expectations can enhance our power to control an economy over time. In those cases, policy announcements can be used to extend the impact of conventional policy instruments. We present a general forward-looking policy framework and use it to provide a formal rationale for testing when policymakers can and cannot expect to be able to manage expectations. To describe the relevance of our results applications are shown for policy design in small-open economies. Those are the cases where domestic policies are at their weakest and our ability to influence expectations most constrained.     

Quantifying tax effects under policy foresight

Studies of tax effects make the conventional information assumption that changes in period-t taxes become known at t. Legislative lags, however, imply that news arrives before tax changes take place. Under policy foreknowledge, the conventional information structure is therefore misspecified. Simulations of a standard neoclassical growth model suggest that foresight of only one quarter can distort substantially the estimates of tax effects obtained under the no-foresight assumption. Also, it is crucial to model capital and labor taxes separately: anticipated changes in these two tax policies have opposite effects on consumption, investment, labor, and output before policy realization.     

Dating,discounting, and the robustness of the Lucas-Sargent proposition

From recent work by Thomas Sargent and others, it has become well known that, if expectations are formed rationally, monetary stabilization policy will be entirely ineffective in an economy in which the aggregate supply function relates output (relative to capacity) to the difference between the current price level and the value expected one period earlier. This paper considers whether this neutrality proposition holds when the expectation of some future price is compared with the current actual price in the supply equation. It is shown that the proposition remains valid if the future price is appropriately discounted.     

经济结构转型与“双支柱”调控框架

理解经济运行环境的变化才能更有针对性地制定和实施货币政策和宏观审慎政策。中国经济在2012年前后迈过工业化的高峰期,家庭部门发生从制造到服务的消费升级,企业部门出现从资本密集型向人力资本密集型的产业结构转型,中国的经济结构转型进程与高收入国家类似发展阶段的经历高度一致。经济结构转型过程中,传统资本密集型行业信贷需求大幅下降,新兴人力资本密集型行业信贷需求相对较低且在债务主导的金融服务体系中面临融资供给制约。由于市场内生的企业信贷供给和需求双双下降,总需求不足问题凸显。宏观经济稳定方面,宏观经济运行特征由此前的“易热难冷” 转向“易冷难热”,“债务—通缩”风险加大。这要求货币政策在执行中更加注重温和通胀目标,充分运用各种政策工具确保总需求和总供给的平衡。金融稳定方面,防范系统性风险的重点要与时俱进地调整。时间轴上要特别关注经济周期和金融周期下行叠加带来的系统性风险;空间轴上不仅要关注“大而不能倒”的系统重要性机构,还须加强“小广散”金融机构的稳定性,注重与其相关的风险传染。     

通胀—增长权衡和中国菲利普斯曲线的平坦化

近年来发达经济体出现了菲利普斯曲线平坦化现象,但有关中国的研究尚缺乏共识。本文基于实证和理论分析,系统研究了中国菲利普斯曲线的平坦化问题。首先,结合货币政策冲击和月度SVAR框架,发现通胀的响应程度在2010年后大幅下降。由于证据显示总需求曲线并未平坦化,因此通胀响应弱化可解读为菲利普斯曲线的平坦化。数据显示,菲利普斯曲线平坦化与生产率增长放缓同时发生,因此,本文在标准DSGE模型中引入纵向内生增长渠道,该渠道基于研发投入和知识资本积累,从而使生产率内生于经济周期。研究发现：(1)内生增长渠道放大了需求冲击对产出的影响,但缩小了需求冲击对通胀的影响;(2)内生增长渠道改变通胀和增长之间的替代关系,但不改变边际成本向通胀的传导。分段估计显示,2010年后,通胀和增长的关系弱化是边际成本传导变弱和内生增长渠道变强共同作用的结果。本文认为,由于菲利普斯曲线的平坦化,中央银行应继续坚持稳增长和就业优先战略,关注但不必过于担心由此引发的通胀压力。     

How fast can the US economy grow, 1995–2020?

This article of concern with future US economic growth responds to several major policy issues presently absorbing widespread attention in American society. It shows that much faster growth than the conventional estimates is possible. This more optimistic forecast requires in particular a policy recognition that growth is not exclusively determined by supply side factors, but is also to an important extent dependent upon demand-side influences. Empirical records are greatly relied upon to show the potential prospect, particularly the experience of the vigorous growth years 1947–74. A standard supply-side equation is modified and combined with an aggregate demand estimate to indicate that an annual growth rate for the quarter century selected can approach 3.7 percent. This is considerably higher than the conventional forecasts approximating 2.5 percent.     

Optimal monetary policy with imperfect common knowledge

This paper determines optimal nominal demand policy in a flexible price economy in which firms pay limited attention to aggregate variables. Firms’ inattentiveness gives rise to idiosyncratic information errors and imperfect common knowledge about the shocks hitting the economy. This is shown to have strong implications for optimal nominal demand policy. In particular, if firms’ prices are strategic complements and economic shocks display little persistence, monetary policy has strong real effects, making it optimal to stabilize the output gap. Weak complementarities or sufficient shock persistence, however, cause price level stabilization to become increasingly optimal. With persistent shocks, optimal monetary policy shifts from output gap stabilization in initial periods following the shock to price level stabilization in later periods, potentially rationalizing the medium-term approach to price stability adopted by some central banks.