人民币汇率机制考验国家智慧

从日本财务大臣盐川正十郎早些时候针对中国的汇率政策四处游说以来,今后可能会有更多的国家通过关税或非关税贸易壁垒向中国施压,人民币将承受有史以来最大的升值压力。 美国市场对中国出口有重要意义,对中国的贸易顺差有决定意义,所以说在人民币升值问题上,美国是毫无争议的“关键先生”。随着美国大选开幕在即,布什政府要博得诸如制造业,劳工组织等这些重要领域的选票,人民币汇率政治化的可能性大大增加。 我们首先要坚定不移地保持人民币汇率基本稳定,并采取一些积极的措施来调节人民币的供求,释放升值压力;其次,要加快推进人民币汇率制度的改革;最后,制定和实施具有可操作性的应对措施。请看北京大学国家高新区发展战略研究院研究人员的分析报告。     

中等收入水平人口大国的金融含义

在“第二届中国财经领袖年会暨2014中国财经年度人物颁奖盛典”期间，中国银行业协会专职副会长杨再平发表演讲，他说：我们是一个人口大国，这样的一个人口大国达到中等的收入水平以后，如何通过金融跳出所谓的陷阱，有着丰富的含义。     

Defining efficiency in heterogeneous markets

Michel Dacorogna, Ulrich Müller, Richard Olsen and Olivier Pictet offer a new definition of efficient markets that takes into account heterogeneity and varying time scales.     

中国国家现代化支付系统设计与应用

中国国家现代化支付系统 CNAPS（China Na-tional Advanced Pavment System,简称支付系统）是中国人民银行总行正在试点推广的,集金融支付服务、资金清算服务、金融经营管理和货币职能于一体的现代化支付清算系统。它将商业银行为客户提供金融服务的下层支付服务系统和中央银行为商业银行提供支付资金清算服务的上层服务系统,通过中国国家金融网络CNFN（China National FinancialNetwork）结合在一起。该系统由各商业银行和中央银行共同构成,它们各自在其中担当不同的角色,前者通过自身的服务体系行使现代化支付系统下层职能,后者则提供上层服务。     

The heterogeneous impact of macroeconomic information on firms' earnings forecasts

This paper re-examines the role of macroeconomic information in forecasting firm earnings. We adopt a Fama–MacBeth regression model with the important extension of including information from over 140 macroeconomic variables that enter into the model in a reduced dimension form as a consequence of common factor analysis. The resulting factor-augmented model is then used to evaluate the importance of macroeconomic information on earnings forecasts for U.S. firms from 1962 to 2009. The same model is also examined for each individual time window and industry subsample. The results reveal a clear and heterogeneous impact of macroeconomic information on firm-specific earnings forecasts, and that these effects differ markedly during certain periods and across industries. In addition, when compared to analyst forecasts, we show that our model is generally more accurate over longer forecast horizons. The results of the identified heterogeneous impacts are used to define the conditions under which macroeconomic information becomes important for the firm.     

The social organization of time

If all social life has been structured around a single model of employment founded on standard working hours, the reduction in working time, and in particular the diversification of working hours, is likely to effect radical transformation from both the economic and social points of view. This diversification will continue, it is argued, because of the new economic imperatives as much as sociocultural developments. It is forecasted that the old standard model is being replaced by much more flexible management of working hours and, hence, free time. What is not so clear is whether this flexibility in working conditions, which will bring with it a revolution at the individual, company and societal levels, will be equally benign for all.     

Bookbuilding with heterogeneous investors

Empirical evidence suggests that better-informed investors in bookbuilt IPOs submit more informative bids and receive better allocations than do investors with less precise information. While the traditional bookbuilding argument accounts for this evidence as better-informed investors being rewarded with more favorable allocations for providing more useful information, the present paper adopts the winner's curse argument and shows that better-informed investors get better allocations by being better able to pick underpriced issues, even though in equilibrium investors' bids fully reveal their information. The paper offers empirical implications that allow the two arguments to be separated.     

Public debt in economies with heterogeneous agents

We study public debt in competitive equilibria in which a government chooses transfers and taxes optimally and in addition decides how thoroughly to enforce debt contracts. If the government enforces perfectly, asset inequality is determined in an optimum competitive equilibrium but the level of government debt is not. Welfare increases if private debt contracts are not enforced. Borrowing frictions let the government gather monopoly rents that come from issuing public debt without facing competing private borrowers. Regardless of whether the government chooses to enforce private debt contracts, the level of initial government debt does not affect an optimal allocation.     

The expected discounted penalty function: from infinite time to finite time

In this paper we study the finite-time expected discounted penalty function (EDPF) and its decomposition in the classical risk model perturbed by diffusion. We first give the solution to a class of second-order partial integro-differential equations (PIDEs) with certain boundary conditions. We then show that the finite-time EDPFs as well as their decompositions satisfy this specific class of PIDEs so that their explicit expressions are obtained. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the finite-time EDPF may be expressed in terms of its ordinary counterpart (infinite-time) under the same risk model. Especially, the finite-time ruin probability due to oscillations and the finite-time ruin probability caused by a claim may also be expressed in terms of the corresponding quantities under the infinite-time horizon. Numerical examples are given when claims follow an exponential distribution.     

为民族复兴的伟大目标重塑经济伦理——谈卢德之

卢德之博士是个有着丰富从政和商业经历的实践者。前不久,他把自己的悟道心得《资本精神》书稿拿给我,让我提提意见。因为5月份是博士论文答辩的高峰期,6月份也有较多的出差和活动,所以我用了两个多月的时间才得以"交差"。在对《资本精神》进行了逐字逐句的阅读后.我发现:对这本涉及了哲学、历史、宗教、伦理学、经济学及企业管理学等诸多内容的书稿进行评论实际上已超出了我的知识结构范围,作为一个经济理论工作者,我已深深地被这本广征博引、     

From space to time : The music of old earth and new time

With this article I.F. Clarke resumes his series on the long advance towards modern ways of looking at the future. Two hundred years ago, he says, the world still managed well enough with the old short-scale measure of time. According to that system the beginning of human life dated from the creation of Adam and Eve on the afternoon of Friday, 28 October 4004 BC. Then came the first palaeontologists who pushed back the origins of organic life by millions of years. Their discoveries changed the perceived role of Homo sapiens in earth history as decisively as the Renaissance astronomers transformed all thinking about the place of our planet in the universe. The dominant evolutionary ideas of the 19th century joined with the evident technological advances to confirm the idea of progress as the most favoured doctrine of the age. It is still with us.     

Costly participation and heterogeneous preferences in informational committees

Informational committees are groups of people who are designated to gather information. This article develops a simple model of committee size based on costly participation and preference heterogeneity. In a setting in which the information structure and policy preferences are both represented by normal random variables, I characterize an equilibrium under the mean decision rule and derive the optimal committee size. I show that when effort costs are sufficiently high, preference heterogeneity can provide members additional incentives to gather information, and thus the optimal committee size and the principal's expected payoff can increase in the heterogeneity of committee members' policy preferences.     

Universal bounds for asset prices in heterogeneous economies

We establish universal bounds for asset prices in heterogeneous complete market economies with scale invariant preferences. Namely, for each agent in the economy we consider an artificial homogeneous economy populated solely by this agent, and calculate the “homogeneous” price of an asset in each of these economies. Dumas (Rev. Financ. Stud. 2, 157–188, [1989]) conjectured that the risk free rate in a heterogeneous economy must lie in the interval determined by the minimal and maximal of the “homogeneous” risk free rates. We show that the answer depends on the risk aversions of the agents in the economy: the upper bound holds when all risk aversions are smaller than one, and the lower bound holds when all risk aversions are larger than one. The bounds almost never hold simultaneously. Furthermore, we prove these bounds for arbitrary assets.      

Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs

This paper studies the dynamic behavior of security prices in the presence of investors’ heterogeneous beliefs. We provide a tractable continuous-time pure-exchange model and highlight the mechanism through which investors’ differences of opinion enter into security prices. In the determination of equilibrium, we employ a representative investor with stochastic weights and solve for all economic quantities in closed form, including the perceived market prices of risk and interest rate. The basic analysis is generalized to incorporate multiple sources of risk, disagreement about nonfundamentals, and multiple investors. Other applications involving multiple goods and nominal asset pricing within monetary economies are discussed.     

Auctions with heterogeneous entry costs

If bidders have independent private values and homogeneous entry costs, a first‐ or second‐price auction with a reserve price equal to the seller’s value maximizes social surplus and seller revenue. We show that if entry costs are heterogeneous and private information, then the revenue‐maximizing reserve price is above the seller’s value, a positive admission fee (and a reserve price equal to the seller’s value) generates more revenue, and an entry cap combined with an admission fee generates even more revenue. Social surplus and seller revenue may either increase or decrease in the number of bidders, but they coincide asymptotically.     

Prices and heterogeneous search costs

We study price formation in a model of consumer search for differentiated products in which consumers have heterogeneous search costs. We provide conditions under which a pure‐strategy symmetric Nash equilibrium exists and is unique. Search costs affect two margins—the intensive search margin (or search intensity) and the extensive search margin (or the decision to search rather than to not search at all). These two margins affect the elasticity of demand in opposite directions and whether lower search costs result in higher or lower prices depends on the properties of the search cost density.     

论国有商业银行行长任期经济责任审计中的责任界定问题

经济责任界定是经济责任审计的重要内容.行长任期经济责任界定是否恰当准确、客观与否,关系到行长经济责任审计的质量,也关系到审计的风险,更关系到党和政府对干部使用的导向.本文结合学习贯彻中共中央办公厅、国务院办公厅印发<党政主要领导干部和国有企业领导人员经济责任审计规定>(以下简称<规定>)的体会,从实践出发,针对当前国有...