The first fifteen years: a personal view of the early history of the WFSF (1967-1982)

This article is based on a personal account on the early history of the WFSF. The author emphasizes that this organization was in many ways more a social movement than a professional organization, since it functioned as a critique of the emerging future think tanks, which were so closely linked to established powers. Moreover, from its beginning, the Federation attempted to be a real global organization and not only an affair of the so called developed world. It succeeded in having conferences in all continents.In that early period the Federation had given explicit support to individuals and institutions in the communist countries of Central/Eastern Europe, where future research institutions were to some extent ‘havens in a heartless world’. The Federation has also promoted international courses in future studies for graduate students, especially in Dubrovnik. Many of the participants later on became active (board) members of the WFSF. Finally, in those days the Federation promoted a number of research projects on the study of the future, producing an impressive number of books and journals. In short, the WFSF is a club to be proud of.     

The WFSF and I

This essay gives an account of my voyage through space and time with the World Futures Studies Federation, and other futures groups, from 1966 to August 1993, although I remain a member of and active in the WFSF. The essay is written mainly from memory with only occasional reference to notes and records and so it may be wrong in some details. My journey was not made alone, but in the company of a very great many people not only in Hawaii but also very literally all over the world. I have not been able to mention everyone one. But my journey continues to this very moment.     

Managing a sphere of influence: WFSF and its institutional members

The World Futures Studies Federation has nearly seventy Institutional Members from around the world. Combined, Institutional Members' day-to-day endeavors span an assortment of professional, academic, governmental and research areas. The activity and visibility of the Institutional Members was informally monitored during a nine-month period in 2002-2003 which resulted in a strong impression that, despite abundant access to Institutional Members, the WFSF is underutilizing its sphere of influence. The WFSF should initiate a strategy of outreach to Institutional Members that maximizes relationships and is mutually beneficial for everyone involved in the organization. The basis of this outreach should be focused on fulfilling WFSF's stated mission to promote Futures Studies and awareness for the future. WFSF is also strongly committed to promoting democracy, which must also underlie any effort in this context. In addition to the internal state of affairs there needs to be consideration of trends and current conditions outside the field of Futures Studies. By examining four scenarios this essay suggests ways in which WFSF can anticipate the future and increase its impact.     

The first WFSF Asia—Pacific course: the futures of development

Is development theory dead? It seems to be, if the thinking of some young people at a futures course in Bangkok is any indication. The course, ‘The futures of development: historical roots, present trends and alternative futures’, was held in Bangkok 23–30 August 1992 by the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), with sponsorship from UNESCO and the Communication Centre of the Queensland University of Technology, Australia.     

Dogs don't bark at parked cars

The following essay, by the Past President of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), was presented as the Opening Keynote Address to the WFSF World Conference ‘Coherence and Chaos in our Uncommon Futures’, Turku, Finland, 23 August 1993.     

World Futures Studies Federation in 1993-1997

This paper provides an overview of the WFSF during its ‘Finnish’ period of 1993-1997. During this time the WFSF organized and co-organized many conferences, symposiums, courses, summer schools, etc. In 1993, the XIII World Conference of WFSF was held in Turku, Finland; in 1995 the XIV World Conference was in Nairobi, Kenya; and in 1997, the XV World Conference was in Brisbane, Australia. These and many other events are outlined. Much is left unwritten, however, because there were and are many other activities inspired by the WFSF and its members. The information collected here is mainly derived from the WFSF Biannual Report 1995-1997, World Conference Selections and WFSF Newsletters and Bulletins.     

Acting together: Intergenerational values and wisdom

Future values and wisdom in a generational sense is a challenging topic to wrestle with at an international conference, especially one which focuses on action in the present. Session Two at the 2005 WFSF World Conference in Budapest was titled ‘Counting on Each Other’, represented through the papers presented here and the group's discussion related by the author. The papers were grouped into four areas—Futures Studies and Methods; Values; Sustainable Development; and Rights and Ethics. After reading the issues which were raised, and the conclusions that were reached, the reader should appreciate the complexity of the topic. In particular, the difficulties faced by a group of people who wished to explore this topic, its related images of the future and the actions generated for the present is a microcosm of the difficulties faced in the wider world when trying to deal with these issues for the future.     

Youth and the WFSF: a generational approach

This paper examines the role of generational change in the emergence and continuity of the WFSF, generational change as situated through macro-historical perspectives, generational value shifts and their implications for the WFSF, and asymmetries and potentialities revealed through youth futures literature. It argues that the development of the WFSF in the longer term will require a generational approach that incorporates greater youth and student participation.     

Futurist networks: cases of epistemic community?

This article analyses the concept of epistemic community focusing the attention on two aspects, which contribute to define this ‘actor’: knowledge and capacity of acting under the conditions of uncertainty. The link between these two issues and the ‘nature of future studies’ is considered and the possibility of considering some organisations and institutions as future epistemic communities is explored. The case of the World Futures Studies Federation is examined in detail.In 1992, Peter Haas defined an ‘epistemic community’ as follows: “an epistemic community is a network of professionals from a variety of disciplines and backgrounds, they have a shared set of normative and principled beliefs, which provide a value-based rationale for the social action of community members; shared causal beliefs, which are derived from their analysis of practices leading or contributing to a central set of problems in their domain and which then serve as the basis for elucidating the multiple linkages between possible policy actions and desired outcomes; shared notions of validity—that is, inter-subjective, internally defined criteria for weighing and validating knowledge in the domain of their expertise; and a common policy enterprise—that is a set of common practices associated with a set of problems to which their professional competence is directed, presumably out of the conviction that human welfare will be enhanced as a consequence” [1].In ancient Greek, the term ‘episteme’ has a meaning which belongs to the philosophical sphere; ‘community’ is a concept which comes from the religious tradition and, more recently, has been the objective of sociological studies. Epistemic community links the two terms to indicate a ‘new’ and in some aspects, atypical political actor. At etymological level we already have a first sort of indication with respect to what is meant: politics as a synthesis of religion (faith), sociology (the decisions taken by policy makers have consequences on the whole society) and philosophy (intended as Weltanschaung). The German term Weltanschaung means the idea, concept or the ‘vision’ of the world and life. It is the way in which an individual or a social group considers the position of the human being in the world and the attitudes and actions they develop on the basis of a particular vision of the cosmos.In addition to this formal definition, Haas identifies other characteristics: “members of an epistemic community share inter-subjective understandings; have a shared way of knowing; have shared patterns of reasoning; have a policy project drawing on shared causal beliefs, and the use of shared discursive practices and have a shared commitment to the application and production of knowledge” [1].This definition could be analysed in several ways with particular attention to one or more of the indicated criteria. We could assume that the expression ‘possible policy actions and desired outcomes’ is to be understood as the ‘long term implications, expected, possible, probable and desired’ of a decision taken or that which will be taken, and this would already represent a linkage between the policy, the futures studies and an epistemic community; moreover, usually ‘the policy choices concern consequences, which can only be partially anticipated’ [2]. This gives rise ‘to the desire for information, which is not so much based on purely technical knowledge but rather information, which is the product of human interpretation’ [1]. Epistemic communities, national or trans-national, are one possible provider of such information.At this stage, and considering only this aspect of the whole definition, we could argue that a network of experts active in the field of future studies would represent the perfect portrait of what we are looking for: a multi-person actor able to ‘anticipate’, using knowledge, various backgrounds and expertise. To anticipate, in this context, might be specified as to understand or comprehend global and local changes. In general, futurists work within the framework of complexity and uncertainty, try to re-define problems in broader context and attempt to comprehend ‘change’ using knowledge.An example could be helpful: the change we are experiencing in Eastern European countries appears as multi-dimensional: in less than 15 years those countries have moved from a

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socialist economy (closed and planned), to a

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‘Western economy’ (the so-called market economy), to a

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technological one as a consequence of globalisation and, lastly,

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to the learning economy.

The first step (socialist economy), recalls other sectors in which the ‘ideas’ were closed and planned. The society was divided into classes and the dominant concept was ‘war’. In this context, every single action was intended as a possibility to demonstrate the points of strength of a system: sports, culture and economy were part of the battle and the vision of the future was mostly influenced by the possibility to destroy or to be destroyed. Examples of these considerations could be seen in the choice made by the USA government in its participation at Olympic Games in Moscow (1980), the USSR’s answer in 1984 (Los Angeles Olympic Games) and the proliferation of nuclear holocaust movies such as The Day After. These ideas were strongly present amongst the people of the Eastern countries, but after 1989, things changed and ‘gradually’ the new paradigms based on ‘Western values’ and, for a few, Western lifestyles, emerged. Probably these changes caused shocks in the local societies, shocks that have had consequences also in the way these societies now see their futures. The third step, the shift to a technological economy, has been faster and wider, thanks largely to the new communication technologies and the Internet. In understanding and developing alternative futures for Eastern Europe, futurists have to take account of the fact that all the three economies exist side by side—Eastern Europe does not represent one or the other economies, it is a complex mix of all the three economies. This complexity is further augmented by the fact that Eastern European societies have not had enough time to understand their present in order to be able to desire possible, alternative futures. Further, economic competitiveness is now based more and more on the capacity to develop and apply knowledge [3]. Thus, futures of Eastern Europe are a function of its capacity to develop relevant new forms of knowledge. Futurists cannot afford to ignore this connection between the knowledge and alternative futures.Thus, the concept of epistemic community and the theory of ‘knowledge economy’ have a great deal in common. If we consider that the so-called ‘decision-makers’ are (in democratic countries) elected by the people, we can argue that that section of the people able to disseminate consciousness of problems, possible solutions and long term implications, posses a form of power. Without engaging with this power, we cannot shape viable and meaningful futures.Are there any trans-national networks of expert where it is possible to identify these characteristics of an ‘embryonic’ epistemic community? In some respect this could be the case of the World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF), or of the Washington-based World Future Society (WFS) or, at regional level, of the Namur-based euroProspective or the Finland Futures Research Centre, where we have structured networks of the experts coming with different experiences, from different backgrounds, a common interest (to analyse the society from different perspective, but all future oriented), a shared task (to disseminate the use of futures studies not only as a tool but also as a way of thinking) and diversity in knowledge, which is what keeps them together. Moreover, for most of the members, the idea of knowledge economy is already their reality and the capacity to understand trends, possible (or even better) probable futures is the aim of their professional activities.If we briefly consider those organisations, we could assume that they already posses some aspects related to the concept of epistemic community: the WFS for example “strives to serve as a neutral clearinghouse for ideas about the future, membership is open and the Society includes 30,000 people in more than 80 countries from Argentina to Zimbabwe. Members come from all walks of life, they include sociologists, scientists, and educators” [4]. If the WFS’s main strength is in trans-national partnership and different backgrounds of its members, the regional experience that euroProspective is carrying out is mostly based on the construction of a European network of experts. The inter-exchange of ideas and a common ‘mission’ are the two elements, which could let us consider this organisation as futures epistemic communities. Another example, at national/regional level, is the one provided by the Finland Futures Research Centre; the link with epistemic community is offered by the activity and the nature of some projects of this institution such as ‘sustainable energy development in developing countries’, ‘Russian energy and global climate’, ‘collisions of nature and culture in transport policy’, ‘professional delphiscan, an expert system’ [5]—all of these projects or tools (delphiscan is a software) are aimed at producing a relationship between political power and future and knowledge power.There are several reasons why we cannot consider the WFSF by itself as an epistemic community. Perhaps the most important is that it does not have a direct link with the political power; neither does the Federation seek any kind of influence on public authorities or on the decision-making process. But in as much as the Federation is concerned with managing change, it could be considered as an actor able to help people and the institutions understand the on-going processes of change. In the coming years, it will probably be forced to become an epistemic community as it will be necessary to ‘represent and clarify the relation between knowledge management, ICT usage and experts in futures studies as mediators between the complexity of political decision and the tendency of institutions to became advanced learning organisation’ [6] and [7].We also need to study the role the futures studies can play in clarifying those ‘shadow zones’ between the political power and the complexity of the decision-making processes. In this respect, it has to be underlined that the demand for the expert advice is a common phenomenon in policy-making processes, at local, national and international level. All this processes have a concrete objective, which would offer the possibility to exploit the added value of a ‘federation intended as a sort of epistemic community’: the credibility of the futures studies and, consequentially, the credibility of the experts active in this field, depends on this. The debate and the progress of these considerations should be developed in a multi-disciplinary and trans-disciplinary way with respect to several subjects and research areas, but this is only a logical consequence of the ‘nature and the different backgrounds’ already represented in the Federation.A theme (which emerged during the conference held in Brasov), which allows us to identify a relationship between an epistemic community and the social needs is globalisation. While globalisation is difficult to pin down, it is quite evident that we are living through a phase of transition. But as futurists and a potential epistemic community, our goal ought to be to develop an understanding of, and perspectives on, post-globalisation societies. This suggests that we need to identify the relationships between an epistemic community, the futures studies and the organisations active in this field such as WFSF and euroProspective.The analytical tools offered by the concept of epistemic community seem appropriate under the current prevailing conditions of uncertainty and ignorance. Understanding uncertainty and bringing multi-faceted expertise and knowledge to analyse difficult problems and propose future solutions are the two fundamental characteristics of futurists. The constitution of a network of experts coming from different backgrounds is already a reality inside the Federation but, at the moment, there is no linkage with the traditional and democratic forms of power. To become an active epistemic community, the WFSF has to realise its potential and develop these much needed linkages.     

A vision of futures studies

The article looks at futures studies from the point of view of the author who has spent over 30 years in the field, with special reference to the World Futures Studies Federation. It suggests that visions are essential for conducting futures studies and education in futures studies is vital for preparing future oriented new generations. The author points out that around the world women are developing silent alternatives to the present societies geared to conflict and violence; this may lead to non-violent changes of which many are not aware. Futures studies will also benefit from examining futures of cultures as we seem to be developing a new culture of peace.     

A family view of population questions

To relate family situations to the population problem, viewing family decisions as one of the ultimate determinants of how many people there are on the globe and how rapidly the total population will increase, is proposed as a way of viewing the population problem of the world. Population problems of the developed countries with a growth rate of 1% or less per annum are different from those of the countries with a high growth rate and which have about 45-50% of the population below age 15. This group of young people, plus older people who no longer contribute to productive activity, form the dependency burden on a country. Some sociological and economic variables that affect family size decisions are discussed, and the importance of really understanding these variables in order to formulate better population policies is stressed.     

When do transformative initiatives really transform? A typology of different paths for transition to a sustainable society

This special issue of Futures is filled with good examples of initiatives that each in their own way take part in shaping our common future. Authors from different parts of the world document that the initiatives make a difference within their own realm. The question raised here is how and to what extent such transformative efforts can contribute to transforming the world at macro level, bringing us closer to a sustainable society. Based on the flora of literature about sustainable development, five different answers are presented in the form of five alternative pathways. The goal should not be to reach consensus on which strategy is best, but rather to have as many people as possible marching together in the same direction under different banners. Individuals who see no pathway leading to their goal tend to resign. The combined efforts of people with common goals but different strategies may produce the necessary dynamics to meet the needs of future generations.     

Late-blooming societies can be stimulated by information technology

About 50 societies in the world have been unable to make significant progress toward development over the last several decades, despite various kinds of assistance. Information technology is a powerful new tool that has not yet been applied. It can strongly reinforce and redirect more familiar programs, and expedite others, such as education, micro-enterprise formation, community-oriented non-government organizations, family size limitation, social communications, financial management and stabilization of politics.Introducing much more information makes possible efficient consumption. A good, sustainable quality of life, with minimal consumption of natural resources, seems to be a superior goal for development. Here it is proposed that the target conditions should be ‘happiness’, ranging from serenity (achieving order, internal calm to delight) to spontaneous, infectious forms (well-being, fun and joy). Sociologists have developed quite robust measures over the last several decades. Happiness comes cheaply, because it need not involve massive infrastructure, fuel or other expensive inputs. Accelerated progress will require some new institutions using information appropriately.The outlook for funding from foundations created by the information technology billionaire entrepreneurs is promising after current risks of loss have diminished. The same technology would enable affluent people to adopt lives of voluntary simplicity.Consumption at a quarter of Euro–American levels requires only a little planning, and a tenth of those levels seems possible with careful organization and discipline. Then people would be able to move easily to late-blooming societies which accelerated progress through their choice of the happiness path to development. Simultaneously, some talented, energetic individuals who started poor could use the Internet to gain entry into the circle of world servers within a lifetime.     

Who goes, who stays?

The merger announcement between DeWaal Pharmaceuticals and BioHealth Labs was front-page news. Pictures of CEO Steve Lindell and chairman Kaspar van de Velde had appeared in newspapers around the world. Two months later, the press had moved on to a new story, and the hard labor of integration loomed. Steve had worked tirelessly to clear regulatory hurdles, and all signs pointed toward approval in the near future. Now Steve was feeling pressure to attack the real challenge of the merger: bringing together two very different cultures as quickly and efficiently as possible. DeWaal was an established drug-maker based in the Netherlands, and BioHealth, headquartered just north of New York City, had in recent years become competitive at the highest tier of the market. The first step in integrating the two companies was to select the top layers of management for the new company. At the moment, there were some 120 people on two continents for about 65 senior-level jobs. Steve's urgency was not without cause: talented people from both sides were jumping ship, and BioHealth's stock price had dipped 20% after the initial euphoria over the deal had worn off. Complicating matters was confusion over who was really in charge: Steve wanted to take leadership and move ahead rapidly, but he was often disarmed by Kaspar's charming persuasiveness. As the two men attempt to work through the important personnel issues during a lunch meeting, they quickly hit a roadblock. How can they come to agreement about who goes and who stays? Four commentators offer advice in response to this fictional case.     

Taking care of each other: Solid economic base for living together

This paper is intended to give an insight of the thoughts and issues which emerged in a 2-day-workshop on WFSF World Conference in Budapest, Hungary in 2005, under the title of “Taking Care of Each Other” meaning the connection between the generation of present and that of the future. Our shocking findings were the following: we now live on the cost of the future's generation; we live up their futures; we let erode the values both on personal and social level; we determine their actions; we do not give them the freedom of choice; they are forced to fulfil the obligations we impose on them. The way we came to these conclusions, and some possible “solutions” we have discussed are presented in this short summary.     

Smart work and hard work: explicating a learning orientation in strategic management accounting

This paper examines the skills and aptitudes necessary to undertake a strategic management accounting project. It argues that individuals involved in such projects are required to work both smart and hard. This argument is developed theoretically by reference to the work of educational psychologists who have identified two different types of goal orientation which people pursue in achievement situations: the learning orientation and the performance orientation. Evidence that strategic management accounting requires a learning orientation is provided by means of a case study which describes its use in a competitive tendering situation. This is followed by a discussion of the potentially symbiotic relationship of strategic management accounting and organizational learning. The discussion leads to the specification of a research agenda that may have significant implications for the practice and learning of management accounting.     

What difference does ‘integral’ make?

Integral futures (IF) has developed over several years to a point where it has emerged as a productive way of understanding futures studies (FS) itself and re-evaluating its role in the wider world. It is not merely a new ‘take’ on FS but has brought the field to a new stage of development with many practical consequences. For example, consulting, research, publishing, the design and implementation of training programs can now draw on a broader and deeper set of intellectual, practical and methodological resources than ever before. Similarly, with its new clarity regarding the individual and collective interior domains, IF profoundly affects the way people operate and changes the way in which the advanced skills and capabilities involved in strategic and social foresight are developed and used. Some of the reasons for these developments are explored here in a review of specific effects as shown by a sample of futures methods. The paper concludes with some brief suggestions about broader implications for the field as a whole.     

Imagining worse than reality: comparing beliefs and intentions between disaster evacuees and survey respondents1

We often credit disasters, and their coverage in the media, with changes in the public perception of risk associated with low-probability, high-consequence events (LPHCs). With a change in perceptions, we also expect changes in beliefs, preferences, and behaviors. Do beliefs and behaviors change in different ways for people who live through these LPHC critical events, as opposed to people who observe them? This study compares hypothetical hurricanes with actual hurricane effects in a survey quasi-experiment. Findings indicate that hypothetical disasters induce stronger reactions than those experienced in the natural world, as Hurricane Katrina bystanders imagine themselves incurring much higher damages, and being much less likely to return to live in their hurricane-damaged homes, than actual Hurricane Katrina evacuees. Ultimately, respondents considering a hypothetical low-probability, high-consequence event exhibit exaggerated beliefs and opposite decisions of those who actually lived through one of these events. Results underline the importance of examining the differences between public perceptions and experiential reality.     

World views and crystal balls

It has been assumed by many people that being educated and holding some preferred attitudes towards the social world assure a more realistic conception of events in the making. This assumption was tested by a review of nine public opinion polls. These retrospective data do not support the hypothesis that schooling increases competence in forecasting. However, world views do seem to be associated with predictive competence. A conservative and pessimistic attitude appears to illuminate the crystal ball while a liberal and optimistic attitude appears to darken it. Recommendations are made for a test of this possibility.     

How Fleet Bank fought employee flight

In the late 1990s, Fleet Bank was facing high and rising employee turnover, particularly in its retail operations. Overall turnover had reached 25% annually, and among some groups, such as tellers and customer service reps, turnover was as high as 40%. Using a new methodology developed by Mercer Human Resource Consulting, Fleet set out to determine why so many employees were leaving and what could be done to retain them. It began examining data from HR, finance, operations, and sales about employee behavior and the factors that influence it in different locations and labor markets, departments or work groups, in positions with different pay and benefits, and under different supervisors. Fleet's analysis showed that people were leaving not so much for better pay--their personal testimony notwithstanding--but for broader experience, which they thought would enhance their marketability. Additionally, the analysis revealed a link between the turnover problem and the company's busy history of mergers and acquisitions. Fleet's mergers and acquisitions. frequently meant that it had to consolidate operations. That consolidation resulted in layoffs, which provoked higher levels of voluntary turnover, perhaps because remaining employees began worrying about their job security. While the obvious solution to the turnover problem might have been to compensate the remaining employees--say, with higher pay--the more effective and less costly solution, Fleet discovered, was to focus on employees' career opportunities within the company. Those who moved up the hierarchy, or who even made lateral moves, stayed longer. By offering better internal opportunities for career development, the bank was able to stanch much of the hemorrhaging in personnel. Its solutions required only modest investments, which in the end saved the company millions of dollars.