Energy scenarios: Toward a new energy paradigm

Primary energy sources exhibited regular long-term logistic substitution trends from the mid-19th century through the third quarter of the 20th century. This analysis, based on an extension of the Fisher-Pry substitution model, accounted for the observed historical shifts of primary energy use from sources of wood, coal, oil, natural gas, and nuclear. In the mid-1980s the substitution dynamics was replaced by a relatively constant contribution from oil, natural gas, coal, nuclear power, and hydropower. However, a major factor in energy use dynamics in this recent period was substitution of conservation and efficiency for actual fuel use. The energy efficiency is measured as the ratio of economic activity to the rate of energy use (energy intensity). To incorporate these data into the logistic analysis, a method for estimating the fraction of energy saved by the increased efficiency was used. With this interpretation, energy efficiency fits within the substitution model. Furthermore, to identify indications of future energy scenarios, as well as to test the logistic substitution analysis, another statistical approach using ternary diagrams was developed. The consistent results from both logistic substitution and statistical analysis are compared with recent energy projections, trends in decarbonization, Kondratieff waves, and other efficiency measures. While the specific future mix of renewables and nuclear energy sources is uncertain, the more general logistic dynamics pattern of the energy system seems to be continuing as it has for about 150 years now.     

The role of biosolar technologies in future energy supply making scenarios for the Netherlands: Energy port and energy farm

This paper assesses the possible roles of biosolar energy systems in the Netherlands in the coming years. The appraisal is made in the light of EU Directives on renewable energy and reduction of CO₂ emissions, and the new Dutch Energy Agreement for Sustainable Growth. The assessment is made within the Dutch BioSolar Cells (BSCs) research programme on photosynthesis and its application in fuel production. Part of the programme is committed to societal debate by considering different options and uses of biosolar technology. To provide building blocks for these discussions, we conducted a comprehensive desk study supplemented with key expert interviews, and we identified and articulated the main drivers for the Dutch transition towards more sustainable energy supply. Next, these drivers were used to develop two futures: energy port and energy farm, representing institutional settings in which BSC technology could be implemented. Both represent fundamentally different types of innovation and are useful in assessing the effect of policies on future energy systems. Both scenarios were used in workshops with BSC researchers and policymakers. Their possible implications for the BSC programme itself, as well as the broader policy significance of the use of biosolar technologies in the Netherlands, are indicated.     

Alternative scenarios for Ukraine

Major trends and driving forces are analysed in four areas, i.e. polity, economy, society and international environment of Ukraine, as well as their inter-linkages, in order to define overall dynamics of Ukrainian society. It leads to three basic scenarios for the medium term: a pan-Slavic state centred scenario (example Belarus), a feudalisation/mercantilist scenario (example Pakistan) and a liberalisation scenario (example Mexico). It is argued that the rent seeking state and the rent seeking economy are deeply rooted in a society that can be characterised as patrimonial. Although having some distinctive features, such as high level of human capital and an over-powerful state, Ukraine faces problems that are characteristic for many stagnating Third World countries. A predatory and patrimonial state could develop due to the weakness of civil society.As Aristotle has said, we can learn the nature of anything when it has reached and past its maturity. Since the abolishment of communism and the proclamation of independence, in 1991, Ukraine is experiencing a turbulent transition to a new social, political and economic system. The most tangible change was the transition from an industrialised country, where people were assured of a decent living standard, to a country where industrial production declined by 75 per cent and where the overwhelming majority of the population has been pushed into poverty. The scale and speed of deprivation was unheard of as was the social peace that accompanied this destructive movement. Leonid Kuchma, who played a major role in Ukraine for most of the 1990s as President and as Prime Minister, was re-elected by the Ukrainian population with a big margin (56 per cent) in November 1999, when faced with the choice between Kuchma and Symonenko, the latter being an orthodox communist. It showed, to a certain extent, the break with the communist past although Ukraine has not developed yet into a participatory democracy. But Ukraine has consolidated its status as an independent nation in the heart of Europe.However, the overall impression is that of disintegration, hierarchical breakdown and decline. Ukraine has been the only transition economy not to have known at least one year of economic growth during the 1990s. Only in 2000 the Ukrainian economy started to grow.Here, an analysis is made of defining features and major trends in the political sphere, the economy, society and the international environment in order to identify overall dynamics. This exercise allows the formulation of relevant questions about the interrelationships of the various sub-systems in society as well as the major challenges that Ukraine may face in the medium term.     

Making territorial scenarios for Europe

Three paradigmatic traditions of scenario-building can be seen to exist. The model approach with its roots in American military scenarios of the 1950s, the design approach in French urban and regional development of the 1960s, and the strategic conversation approach in scenarios made in the private sector since the 1970s. In theory, these traditions can be integrated by organising the scenario project in a cyclical way. The territorial scenarios for Europe were made by combining workshops, a literature review and modelling. Thematic scenarios were produced for various themes, like demography, the economy, energy, and climate change. These thematic scenarios were combined into four integrated scenarios. The robustness of the scenarios was tested by introducing several “wild cards” and by exploring their territorial impacts throughout Europe. This applied approach succeeded in combining important strengths from the different scenario traditions. Improvements, however, could still be made.     

Sustainability in the prospective scenarios methods: A case study of scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil,for 2030

In order to build prospective scenarios for biodiesel industry in Brazil, with a sustainable perspective, it was necessary to develop a cross-disciplinary work to include Sachs’ dimensions of sustainability into the scenarios method. This meant linking concepts from different disciplines, without transforming it in a new discipline. In order to support the proposition for the new method, a study case is presented, the framework for the biodiesel scenarios in Brazil, by 2030. An in-depth interview was used to test the proposition of having the sustainability dimensions as driving forces. The result was the identification of a critical uncertainty composed of various aspects related the response to climate change and environmental conservation. The scenario storylines that were developed based on the critical uncertainties showed that sustainable options for the future are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.The results show that the scenarios storylines go through social, environmental and economic aspects, supported by other aspects like the territorial and political. Also it showed that sustainable options are possible if the mental maps are enlarged to see beyond the business as usual.     

A financial stability index for Colombia

The imbalances of the financial systems have showed the vast economic and social costs generated by financial instability. As a consequence, the development of stress indexes has spread as an alternative to assess the soundness of financial systems. The aim of this paper is to construct a continuous and quantifiable index with the capacity of establishing the stress level of the Colombian financial system as a function of profitability, liquidity and probability of default. Results show that the index determines effectively the stress level of the system. In addition, we performed forecasts of the financial stability index using macroeconomics variables.     

Soviet society: Current trends and forecast scenarios

As perestroika drives the USSR towards free market socialism, the country's socioeconomic development depends on a number of factors that are only now taking shape. The transition is inconsistent and painful because there is no clear concept of the overall process. In order to overcome current difficulties the Soviet leadership must adopt a coherent transitional model. This article looks at the underlying trends of the current situation in the USSR and presents three scenarios for the development of Soviet society. Focusing on the dynamics of internal factors, the scenarios differ in terms of social orientation, degree of radicalism, approach to problems and proposed relationship between central power and the republics and regions. The extent of political support for each scenario is examined, and their potential for realization is assessed.     

Disciplined imagination: Building scenarios and building theories

This article outlines a relationship between scenario construction and theory building. This is done in two key ways: (1) it is argued that a deficiency of theory and theory building exists with regard to the phenomenon of scenario construction and (2) it is also argued that scenario construction may constitute a form of theory building. These arguments are developed using foundational works that label both scenario construction and theory building as processes of disciplined imagination. Drawing from other core works in management and organizational change perspectives the argument is developed that scenario construction might most appropriately be thought of as a process of developing and changing theories-in-use. Conclusions and implications for management professionals are drawn.     

A new method for constructing scenarios

Scenario construction has been the method used in France in a number of studies that relate to regional development planning problems. This article describes how this peculiarly French interpretation of the method is built upon an assessment of a system of elements and their relationship—which forms the dynamic base—and hypotheses concerning external restraints. The progression in such a scenario is developed largely from the consideration of qualitative elements, and images of the future can then be worked out at cross-sections in time. In this way, trend scenarios reveal what is unacceptable and encourage the study of alternative developments.     

Some future scenarios for renewable energy

Energy security issues, climate change, fossil fuel depletion, new technologies, and environmentally conscious consumers are powerful forces shaping the renewable energy sector. The future of renewable energy depends upon how powerful these forces are and which combination of forces prevails. This paper defines and analyzes four different scenarios, business as usual (2010–2030), focus on climate change (2010–2060), focus on energy security (2010–2030), and a clean and secure energy future (2010–2100) for the future of renewable energy. A clean and secure energy future, where renewable energy accounts for between 50% and 80% of total energy demand, is the most favorable scenario for the future of renewable energy but also the scenario that takes the greatest amount of commitment, in terms of time and money from businesses, individuals, governments, and policy makers.     

The financial system matters: future perspectives and scenarios for a sustainable future

D. Meadows considered in his report ‘limits of growth’ the financial system as a neutral accounting system and came to a pessimistic view. But the money-system itself creates several side effects and distorts our economic system right from the beginning. The money-system is not neutral. New scenario modelings considering the financial system can come to a positive perspective. Three from six systematically developed scenarios include paths to different kinds of sustainability. From a systemic view, the combination of conventional and complementary solutions can provide a substantial contribution towards a sustainable future.     

Projecting scenarios for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific

The article describes further work to validate and assess a method of futures projection. The full methodology is shown in the context of a projection of plausible future trends for South-east Asia and the South-west Pacific. A number of scenarios are developed and it is shown that the future for that region may be fraught with considerable problems. Finally, the methodology is assessed and suggestions for future work are made.     

Three scenarios for the greater Hamburg region

In this paper, three scenarios for the metropolitan region of Hamburg within the next 30 years are presented. The scenarios are based on an assessment of decisions, opportunities and bottlenecks faced by the region in the areas of economic restructuring, demographic and societal changes, city-development and environmental changes. Many core questions that the region is dealing with are representative for Western European cities and highly industrialised regions worldwide. Accordingly, insights gained about strategies and future possibilities for the study region may be of use to other metropolitan regions. Extensive expert interviews were combined with a comparative analysis of the strong and weak points in the development of Hamburg and other big cities to identify trends and critical and strategic success factors. It is argued that economic, political, societal and environmental processes evolve in close interdependency and need to be treated in conjunction. A central question in this context is the meaning of radically different routes of port development—expansion, re-orientation and discontinuation—for the city's economy, the region's environment and socio-cultural renewal. Beneficial outcomes for quality of life, economic development and environmental state are generally found to depend on a combination of economic, societal and political requirements.     

Regions and French society: Three scenarios of the future

This paper is a translated version of the résumé, “Territoires et société”, of the report presented to the Budapest UN ECE seminar on long-term perspectives for human settlements development.     

Alternative futures: AmI scenarios and Minority Report

In the last few decades, scenarios have provided a way of analysing the implications of alternative futures, especially as they might be impacted by new technologies. This has been no less true of ambient intelligence (AmI), which may be embedded everywhere in the not so distant future. Most of the scenarios developed by AmI enthusiasts have been rather ‘sunny’, showing how the new technologies promise to make our lives more efficient, enjoyable, productive, enriching. A European project, called Safeguards in a World of Ambient Intelligence (SWAMI), deliberately developed ‘dark scenarios’ to highlight the threats to privacy, identity, trust, security and inclusiveness posed by the new technologies. The SWAMI consortium also developed a methodological structure for deconstructing and analysing the dark scenarios. This paper takes that approach a step further by applying it to a cultural artefact, partly to test the validity, utility, applicability of the SWAMI methodology to a scenario not constructed by the consortium and partly to show how some cultural artefacts can be regarded as scenarios in their own right as well as warnings about future technologies. The cultural artefact chosen here was the Steven Spielberg film Minority Report, because it features so many AmI technologies and draws attention to the issues that have been the focus of the SWAMI project.     

The future of the motorcar: Alternative scenarios

In contrast to conventional forecasts usually based on constant cost projections, the author considers the future of the motorcar as depending on dynamic changes in the pattern of costs and values related to private car ownership and use. The social, environmental, material and technological factors most influencing the future cost of motoring are analysed, and desirable policies are examined. The results are projected into two scenarios, high and low, of the future conditions for private motoring. The analysis is focused on the Netherlands, but is generally applicable to other Western European countries.     

Renewable energy scenarios for major oil-producing nations: The case of Saudi Arabia

Renewable energy technologies are becoming internationally recognised as a vital contribution towards a sustainable energy future. Given that little research has examined the prospects of renewables from the perspective of major oil producers, this paper presents a set of renewable energy scenarios for the currently oil-rich Kingdom of Saudi Arabia. These scenarios have been developed using the Delphi technqiue, and represent a joint creation of thirty-five highly informed individuals from diverse backgrounds.