Seeking convergence between history and futures research

The objective of this paper is to analyse how much the traditions of history research (HR) and futures research (FR) have in common and how they could assist each other. First, the role of time is analysed. Second, the path dependence theory, strategic decision-making, knowledge management and visionary management are discussed. Examples of the application of the latter in water and sanitation services and their long-term development are shown. Finally, some argumented views are presented on how the convergence between FR and HR could be improved.The key point of this research is the seeming discontinuity between presents, recent pasts and near futures. The traditions of HR probably make it more difficult to assess the effects of strategic decisions on the recent. If more convergence is wanted, the gap should be filled somehow. On the other hand, the core of FR research seems to concentrate more on strategic and visionary horizons while perhaps neglecting the operational horizon of the near future.     

Quality of data, information and knowledge in regional foresight processes

A central subcategory of futures research is technology foresight. There is a concern that today's technology foresight processes do not serve technology-political decision-making and strategy processes of companies well enough. The regional level needs to be emphasized, too, and the inclusion of a wide variety of actors and organizations. There is a danger that results of foresight processes are not absorbed into regional strategy-making processes, leading to a “black hole of interpretation and implementation of foresight knowledge”. Particularly knowledge, but also data and information are crucial concepts in foresight processes. An important issue is how to transform foresight information into future-oriented innovation knowledge. Concrete tools and institutional settings to enhance data, information and knowledge quality in foresight processes and strategy work are needed. This article investigates limitations of established foresight processes and planning approaches, limitations in practical utilization of results of foresight processes, and quality of data, information and knowledge as concrete tools and as a systematic response to limitations. The article is partly based on empirical results from a technology foresight survey undertaken in Finland in 2005. The research responds to societal and academic interest by combining the fields of (i) futures research and (ii) data, information and knowledge quality. Future-oriented considerations are not routine tasks, which makes it especially challenging and important to ensure that these processes benefit from data, information and knowledge of good quality.     

Integrating futures studies with organizational development: Design options for the scenario project ‘RWS2020’

Most futures studies are not used by managers and strategists and do not influence the direction of organizational development. Although the contribution of future studies to management is in theory all but self-evident, the practice in organizations is that futures knowledge is hardly used, or at most, is used selectively and strategically (‘politically’). This article acknowledges that gap and claims that it is a fundamental divide between to very different domains. However, out of that re-conceptualization of the relation between futures studies and management, a new direction for an integrated praxis arises. In an empirical case study, we show that by means of an intelligent process-design and professional balancing of several key-dilemmas, futures studies can be connected to management processes and organizational development. The future can be brought back into the everyday practice of management. However, in order to do so, the futures field needs to set aside some of its methodological claims and move towards the field of strategic management. Not because futurists need to abandon their specific knowledge and expertise, but to make the most of it.     

Sectoral innovation system foresight in practice: Nordic facilities management foresight

A number of studies have explored the interconnection between the foresight literature and the innovation system literature. This paper adds to these studies by investigating how theoretical elements of the innovation system approach can contribute to the design and practice of foresight processes. The paper originates in a foresight project in the Nordic facilities management sector. The goal of the foresight project was to identify the possible futures of the facilities management sector in the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Norway, and Sweden) and, based on the findings, to establish a proposal for a common Nordic facilities management research agenda. The paper finds that three elements of the innovation system literature are of particular interest for the practice of foresight: innovation systems and context dependency, learning and user–producer interactions, and the role of knowledge and knowledge production. These elements are embedded into a simple sectoral innovation system model (including actors, knowledge flows, and the strategic environment).     

On applied science, prediction and contingency

Like any other science, to remain a worthwhile scientific discipline, futures research needs to reflect on itself. It needs to do so from three perspectives: 1) futures research is regarded as an applied science: a closer connection between studying the future in an academic manner and conducting futures research can improve the quality and subsequently the use and impact of futures research, since this will set a cyclic process between theory and practice in motion. An important condition for ensuring this is to increase the amount of empirical research concerning the way futures research is carried out in real life; 2) a reappraisal of predicting the future: although history has shown that predicting the future is difficult, stating that, in the future, predictions will not be a part of futures research is in itself a prediction. In fact, predictions can serve as valuable starting points for discourses on the future; 3) the context of futures research: futures researchers should be more aware of the context in which they do their work. This can significantly enhance the usability of futures research but it also means that futures researchers should become more flexible in applying their methods and processes.     

Design museum futures: Catalysts for education

Taking the ambitious educational programmes and global collecting practices of 19th century industrial arts museums as case studies, this article analyses the role of design in shaping the future. The article examines the historical dynamics behind the construction of futures knowledge and futures expertise on the one hand, and current futures construction within design museum collections on the other. It tests strategic drivers and trends for the imagination and design of futures in the museum within the context of wider debates about the value of museums as sites of transdisciplinary practical learning. In this way the article also considers how cultural value is articulated through changing concepts of time and temporality embodied in material form. The final section examines the potential for social agency and activism within the design museum to foster critical reflection on the methods by which social institutions signal and shape directions of change. The article finds that in providing tools for the sharing as well as shaping of visions of the future, wider debates about the designed object in the museum have much to contribute to futures agency and literacy across disciplinary and professional boundaries.     

Enablers of top management team support for integrated management control systems innovations

Top management team (TMT) support has been identified as one of the most important critical factors to the success of management control systems (MCS) innovations. However, prior studies have taken TMT support for MCS innovations as a given rather than considering the factors that determine whether that support will actually exist and the extent thereof. Prior studies also follow a monolithic approach and treat TMT support for MCS innovations as a black box rather than a combination of processes and stages that develop sequentially over time. We conceptualise TMT support for MCS innovations as consisting of two stages (TMT belief and participation in MCS innovations). We draw on Upper Echelon and knowledge creation theories to motivate and test four enablers of TMT support for an integrated MCS innovation. We theorize the four enablers as TMT's strategic IT knowledge, TMT knowledge creation processes, CIO's strategic business and IT knowledge, and the interaction between TMT and the CIO. We test the research model using survey data that was collected from 347 Australian organisations. The results from the data analyses confirm the hypothesised relationships, supporting the theorized synergies among the four antecedents to TMT support. There are several implications for theory and practice that should be considered in future studies examining the role of TMT in supporting new MCS innovations.     

Exploring value creation from corporate-foresight activities

This paper looks at value creation from corporate futures research. Through a literature review, potential value creation is identified. This serves as guidance for an empirical investigation in which value creation is observed and linked to methods and practices. Using data from 20 case studies, three examples of value creation are discussed in detail. In addition, cross-case analysis allowed me to identify four success criteria for corporate foresight activities: (1) foresighters committed to creating value, (2) participation of internal stakeholders, (3) analysis that follows a systemic logic, and (4) methods and processes that are tailored to companies’ needs. The paper concludes with the recommendation to take a dynamic-capabilities perspective on future research into corporate foresight.     

Developing an abduction-based method for futures research

Futures research is an established field of knowledge with a wealth of methods and techniques. However, foresight, future outlooks and scenarios are, as a rule, based on inductivist or deductivist methods, making looking into the future a form of conservative projecting of past and present probabilities onto the road of development lying ahead of us. Closed past or present outlooks give birth to open futures, but these futures usually are little more than exercises in organizational learning. In this paper we present and develop a method for futures research that is based on abductive logic. Abduction-based futures research approach proceeds from closed, imaginary future states to alternative, open theoretical frameworks or explanations. Unlike inductivists and deductivists believe, this procedure from the unknown to the known is rational, and therefore something that can be systematized and learned. There is a logic of discovery, and what could be a better place to apply and develop it than futures research.     

Understanding Intellectual Capital in an Innovative Medium-sized Firm: The Case Of Maxon Telecom

In many firms and in many industrialised countries, innovation is regarded as fundamental to growth and wealth creation. However, it is not easy to define a measure of innovation that is a leading indicator for value creation. This would imply a linear model of knowledge as a simple input to value-creating processes. Instead, intellectual capital is suggested as an alternative, employing a (non-linear) narrative of how knowledge works. This is illustrated by the case of a medium-sized Danish firm which accounts for the relationship between knowledge and innovation by using a network of a knowledge narrative, management challenges, efforts and numbers.     

Symbolizing the future—towards a futures'' iconography

This essay brings the art historical methodology of iconography to bear upon symbolic representations of futures issues. The discipline of iconography was developed as a way of analysing symbolism as it evolved from antiquity to the Baroque in order to identify and interpret the meaning of symbols within their wider cultural context. Symbols constitute significant indicators of the aspirations, belief systems and neuroses of the cultures which generate them. As such, they constitute fundamental tools in any analysis of past and contemporary attitudes towards science, technology and the future. With this in mind the essay considers symbolic images of the three fundamental aspects of futures studies—the interconnectedness of past, present and future, the plurality of options for the future, and the importance of the human input into technology and the creation of the future.     

Futures signals sense-making framework (FSSF): A start-up tool to analyse and categorise weak signals, wild cards, drivers, trends and other types of information

This article introduces future signals sense-making framework (FSSF), an alternative philosophy towards weak signals, emerging issues, drivers, and trends, that is in contrast to the traditional single signal or path extrapolation approach. The philosophy of FSSF is based on the principles of environmental scanning and pattern management, which state that if there is a grand transformation process on the way or if there is a new emerging pattern or phenomenon, such a process will certainly be reflected in many different ways. Therefore, in this philosophy, futures knowledge is believed to be fragmented between various simultaneous and overlapping sources. Here, a researcher's task is to carry out a sufficient environmental scanning process and to cluster and sense how to create the emerging future through a pattern management process where FSSF plays a role as the first start-up tool. Alternatively, FSSF can also be used as a general knowledge management and sense-making tool for any kind of analyses.     

Environmental outlooks: How they frame futures and long term uncertainty

Futures studies intend to structure our knowledge and our judgement about the future by handling facts and values in a certain way. In other words, futures studies frame futures. These frames might be powerful, triggering social action and societal transformation, yet they risk to be criticised and provoke scepticism. The environmental field has a long tradition in futures studies: environmental outlooks. Some of these outlooks, e.g. those published by the IPCC are among the most prominent examples of outlooks that provoke scientific, social and political debate, create commotion and provoke action. Part of these discussions deal with how outlooks frame the future and how they handle the uncertainty inevitably linked to framing futures. The way these challenges are dealt with may affect the overall assessment of an environmental outlook. This article attempts to identify the way environmental outlooks frame futures. We do not strive for exhaustiveness, but deliberately restrict to an in-depth analysis of a handful of recent environmental outlooks. We conclude that environmental outlooks reflect a lack of clarity and argumentation upon how they frame futures and how they deal with uncertainty. This epistemological and methodological ambiguity risk to affect the outlooks’ credibility and impact.     

Corporate foresight and innovation management: A portfolio-approach in evaluating organizational development

The transition from a traditional industry-driven economy to a knowledge-based economy requires new concepts and methods for companies to sustain competitive advantage. Here, academia has identified corporate foresight and innovation as key success factors. While, content-wise, the contribution of futures research methods to the innovation process has already been researched, this study strives to explore the status quo of organizational development stages of both concepts. To do so, we developed a portfolio-approach, the so-called ‘Future-Fitness-Portfolio’, which enables companies to qualitatively compare amongst others and identify organizational improvement potential. In addition, we conducted expert interviews to explore future organizational development trends in corporate foresight and innovation management. As our research revealed, five strategic clusters can be identified within the portfolio. Consequently, we propose specific strategies for each individual cluster. We conclude that there will be two main organizational development trends for corporate foresight and innovation management in the future: in traditional industries with conventional business models and long product-life-cycles, companies will follow a different development path than companies in dynamic industries with innovative business models and short product-life-cycles.     

Energy futures: Diversity and the need for assessment

In energy policy and energy research, decisions have to be made about the technologies and infrastructures that may be used to provide and distribute energy in future times, some of which are very distant. Frequently, energy futures such as predictions of the energy demand or energy scenarios are used for decision-support in this field. The diversity of energy futures, however, threatens any possibility for orientation, could lead to disorientation instead of helping more rational decision-making and could be used for ideological purpose. In this paper, we investigate concepts and approaches for scrutinizing, comparing and assessing the various energy futures from an epistemological point of view. Following the analysis of the structure of (energy) futures we will conclude that comparisons and assessments of energy futures should be made through processes of scrutiny and assessment, looking into the ingredients which have been used in constructing the respective futures, and into the process of their composition. Providing much more insight into the cognitive and normative structure of energy futures is required for allowing a more transparent and deliberative societal debate about future energy systems.     

Reflections on World Futures Studies Federation

The World Futures Studies Federation (WFSF) began as an idea of a few visionary people. It developed with the contribution of different people around the world who thought that looking into the future as a set of alternative paths linked to the choices in the present, was crucial for humankind. Many of these people were well known scientists, writers in different areas, some were already involved in futures studies some became involved during their time in WFSF. This article traces the events through which the Federation developed and was enriched. The vision of the Federation is just as valid today as it was when the Federation started. It can still perform the role of a modest bridge between people who are concerned with building a humane world.     

Heart of the dragon: Metaphor use in futures thinking in Taiwan

This article explores metaphors in the teaching of futures studies in Taiwan. Metaphors are divided into those that describe current reality and those that describe the future. For instance, the metaphor of the gold fish is used by students to illustrate the short attention span of the people, which attributed to recurring societal crises. A transformative metaphor example is for the library—from a fort that passively awaits worships to fire that actively passes knowledge to people. The article concludes with the benefits of using metaphors in futures thinking.     

Action oriented futures studies in Hungary

The significant social changes and unstable social-economic processes we are undergoing require more participation and more future oriented grassroots activity both in designing the possible future alternatives and in the actions for the realization of them. Action oriented futures studies and participatory futures studies are in close connection, because orientation towards actions and participation of non-professionals can be strengthened by their mutual interdependence in futures work. This study gives—as examples—summaries of four Hungarian case studies using participatory futures methods: one case from the field of vocational training, two cases concerning regional development, and one about national social-economic development. Our experience shows that such selected groups have evaluated the present issues in their environments as well as the closer and broader regional issues in authentic ways. The future alternatives that were outlined regarding the future of vocational training, acceptable future alternatives of domestic social-economic development, and future living conditions of a smaller settlement and in a larger town, reflected obligation, responsibility and personal interest. That non-professionals lack sufficient future orientation, and do not see possibilities to take serious actions for the future is a read problem. Fortunately, it seems that the future and action oriented attitude of the individuals might be further developed by the use of partnership education.     

Futures studies in Italy and The limits to growth

This article describes the introduction of futures studies to Italy and especially the contribution of Aurelio Peccei, the founder of the Club of Rome and an inspiration behind The limits to growth. To set the scene, the author shows how Italian futures studies absorbed technocratic and visionary ideas from prospective studies in France, particularly those of Bertrand de Jouvenel and Gaston Berger. The author explains Aurelio Peccei's role in promoting Limits and the Club of Rome. She reflects also on her own personal involvement with Peccei, as a friend, as member of the Club of Rome, and as a long-standing participant in the Italian and worldwide futures movement.