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1.
Limits to growth rates in an ethereal economy   总被引:3,自引:0,他引:3  
Lenore Newman  Ann Dale 《Futures》2008,40(3):261-267
It has been argued that economic growth can continue despite the finite nature of the Earth and its ecological systems if growth is concentrated in an ethereal economy where ideas and information dominate over physical inputs. In this paper, we agree that in a sustainable society continued growth must eventually be concentrated in the ethereal economy; however, we argue that such growth cannot occur at the ongoing exponential rate that currently underpins the constant rate of returns relied upon within our economies. As there is a limit to how fast a population can adopt new ideas, and as such adoption and innovation itself occurs in unpredictable bursts, growth in an ethereal economy will follow a model of punctuated equilibrium composed of exponential bursts, logistic growth, and stable/stagnating periods in a manner similar to ecological evolutionary processes. Although such an economic environment is likely far in the future, lessons in not overtaxing ecological capital and encouraging information dissemination and knowledge diffusion are applicable to problems we face today.  相似文献   

2.
在对经济学界关于经济学学派划分标准进行阐述的基础上,归纳分析了国内外学者关于发展经济学流派的划分观点.学者们普遍接受将发展经济学划分为结构主义经济发展思路、新古典主义经济发展思路、新古典政治经济学思路和激进主义经济发展思路.本文对上述四种思路的研究方法进行了分析,并明确指出上述几种思路研究方法分歧的本质,即“单一经济学”和“双元经济学”之争、发展中国家经济发展的“内因”与“外因”之争、对经济发展进行“纯经济研究”还是进行“社会经济系统研究”之争.  相似文献   

3.
Learning in organisations: a corporate curriculum for the knowledge economy   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper elaborates on the argument that the economy is transforming into a knowledge economy. Therefore, individuals, teams and companies need to develop the necessary competencies to be able to participate in a working life that is mainly based on knowledge productivity. The traditional approaches to management, training and development will not provide the learning environment that is required for knowledge work. Each company should consciously design a corporate curriculum that turns the day to day work environment into a learning environment. The knowledge economy may bring prosperity to those who join the new elite of knowledge workers. Inherently, it also creates new imbalances.  相似文献   

4.
Post-Industrial Society: The myth of the service economy   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
J.I. Gershuny 《Futures》1977,9(2):103-114
There is a popular view of the current pattern of change in developed societies, a view typified by Daniel Bell's The Coming of Post-Industrial Society, that recent economic growth has been increasingly concentrated in the collective provision of services rather than in individual consumption of material goods, and that this change of economic focus from goods to services is a trend which will continue into the future. The author argues, using UK data, that the trend is in fact away from the expenditure on services and towards expenditure on goods. The growing employment in the tertiary sector, previously used as an indicator of the growth of the service economy, emerges here as a manifestation of the division of labour—a process which increases the efficiency of production of material goods—while the final production of services, using automatic machinery and “direct labour”, will increasingly take place in the home.  相似文献   

5.
Despite the relevance of the issue of pension system sustainability in most advanced economies, the factors associated with the opposition to pension reforms are still under-studied. In this paper, we investigate the correlation between financial, pension and institutional knowledge and support for pension reforms. Using an ad hoc module of the SHARE data for Italy, we find that financially literate and pension knowledgeable individuals are more willing to accept pension reforms. In particular, individuals with a basic level of pension knowledge recognize that population ageing, low economic growth, and low contributions by the young make the public pension system hardly sustainable.  相似文献   

6.
Tom Horlick-Jones 《Futures》2004,36(4):441-456
Transdisciplinarity has been hailed as a potentially effective means of addressing increasingly complex societal problems, the nature of which cut across the boundaries between orthodox disciplinary knowledges. In this paper we are concerned with an approach to achieving a form of transdisciplinarity which entails making linkages between scholarship and practice, as well as across disciplinary boundaries. Such ‘border-work’, we suggest, provides important options for engaging with a range of practical economic and quality of life related problems. Moreover, it offers new and challenging possibilities for scholarly work and understanding. We discuss some practical and conceptual difficulties associated with discipline-based investigations, and illustrate these difficulties by focusing on risk-related phenomena. Here we argue that much of what is interesting and important about the character of risk tends to be lost by the generalising, decontextualising and reductionist tendencies of discipline-based research. Finally we consider two existing approaches to establishing a practice for border-work. These have both attempted to combine an appreciation of the active character of practical reasoning by human agents with the constraining and affording nature of social and material contexts.  相似文献   

7.
《Futures》1996,28(5):391-411
The thesis of this article is that world capitalism is moving into a phase of development marked by an intensified regionalization of production overlaid by—and rooted in—a global division of labour. In this process, a significant reallocation of economic coordination and steering functions is occurring, away from the sovereign state, up to the international and down to the regional levels. The historical development of the global capitalist system over the post-World-War-II years is reviewed. The mechanism underlying the growth and spread of large agglomerations of productive activity throughout the world are then elucidated. The combined processes of global integration and regional concentration of economic activity raise important questions about appropriate forms of regulation in the new world order, and some evolving tendencies are described. The article ends on a speculative note in which the possible emergence of something like a worldwide system of city-states at the dawn of the 21st century is contemplated.  相似文献   

8.
Relative consumption has been found to be crucial in many areas, such as asset pricing, the design of taxation, and economic growth. This article extends this line of research to the individual's insurance decision. We first define “keeping up with the Joneses” in the purchase of insurance and find that jealousy does not necessarily give rise to “keeping up with the Joneses.” We also identify several sufficient conditions that cause the optimal coverage in the private market to be less than the social optimum (equilibrium underinsurance). Jealousy is found to be neither a sufficient nor a necessary condition for equilibrium underinsurance. We further show that a social welfare maximizing government could adopt a tax system to correct for the consumption externality and make individuals better off.  相似文献   

9.
Peter M. Allen 《Futures》2005,37(7):729-744
Instead of modelling socio-economic situations as mechanical systems with fixed, predictable behaviour, we now see that socio-economic systems are really complex systems, in which various possible structural changes can occur giving rise to a range of different possible futures. This necessary future uncertainty automatically imposes an uncertainty on the precise pay-off that any particular action or decision that an agent may take. Because of this, the decisions that agents will make are also uncertain and this poses limits to our ability to model socio-economic systems and therefore to the knowledge that we can have at any time about the future. Because of this constant knowledge decay, what matters in real world situations of markets and business is the generation of new, current knowledge. Contrary to traditional science in which the natural laws are independent of who knows them, in social and economic systems, knowledge of system behaviour decays over time, and is in any case used up when it triggers new behaviour in the system. Several examples of evolutionary market systems are presented which demonstrate how knowledge is constantly created and destroyed, and the problem of change, innovation and design are shown to be part of a ‘boundedly rational’ view in which imperfect search gives rise to ‘good enough’ behaviour. All of this is a radical departure from the traditional approach that falsely believe in the optimisation of designs, behaviours and profits. Complexity tells us that we must accept risk and uncertainty and work loosely, keeping our options open as much as possible.  相似文献   

10.
In this paper we use the concept of social capital to outline a distinctive approach to understanding the interplay between management control systems and the development of social connections in and between organisations. Social capital provides a comprehensive framework for examining the nature of social connections through its focus on both structural networks (bridging) and interpersonal relationships that predispose individuals towards mutually beneficial collective action (bonding). In doing so, social capital provides a means of considering how individuals react to management control systems in terms of the social ties that exist both within the organization and external to the organization. Using a case study of a non-government organization, we show how social capital is implicated in efforts to attract economic capital and cultural capital. We demonstrate how elements of a management control system can either enhance or inhibit the bonding and bridging dimensions of social capital with potential consequences on both economic and cultural capital. We highlight the mixed and sometimes contradictory effects of management control systems on social capital, and provide a powerful illustration of the role of management control systems in brokering alliances and bridging structural holes.  相似文献   

11.
Daniel J. Kruger 《Futures》2011,43(8):762-770
Evolutionary theory is the most powerful explanatory system in the life sciences and is the only framework that can unify knowledge in otherwise disparate fields of research. Considerable advances have been made in the application of evolutionary biology to health issues in recent decades. Health researchers and practitioners could benefit considerably from an understanding of the basic principles of evolution and how humans have been shaped by natural and sexual selection, even if they are not explicitly testing evolutionary hypotheses. Life History Theory is a powerful framework that can be used for examining modern human environments and developing environments that maximize opportunities for positive health outcomes. Many of the recommendations derived from this framework converge with the visions of current public health advocates. Despite the benefits of an evolutionary framework, the challenges that face those attempting to integrate evolutionary theory into public health are perhaps greater than those in the social sciences. Although considerable advancements in the understanding of health issues have already been made, health researchers with an evolutionary perspective are very few in number and face constraining disciplinary attributes. Advances in medical technology will continue to extend the boundaries of saving lives in danger, however traditional public health efforts may be reaching their limits of effectiveness in encouraging health-promoting behaviors. This may partially account for the current interest in broad social and policy change to enhance health and reduce health disparities amongst sub-populations. Such substantial physical and social restructuring will face many challenges and gradual progress may be enhanced by a strong foundation of evolutionary human science. The slow but eventual integration of evolutionary principles will gradually enhance the effectiveness of health interventions and provide an ultimate explanation for patterns in health outcomes that are otherwise puzzling. The speed at which the field of public health adopts a Darwinian framework has yet to be determined, and several futures are possible. This pace will depend on several factors, including the visible utility of evolutionary theory for addressing the health promotion goals of the field.  相似文献   

12.
Design as a social process: A complex systems perspective   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
Design is increasingly perceived as a social process, but despite a wide exposition of the concepts of cooperation or collaboration, a coherent account of the important dimensions of design as a social multi-agent process is still missing. It is argued that a generic, abstract concept is required to be able to capture the social distributed character of design, without making a-priori assumptions about the kinds of interdependencies that exist among agents (in terms of goals, knowledge or roles), or about their dispositions towards cooperation or conflict. The paper suggests that the most appropriate concept for this purpose is the concept of coordination. A model of coordination as a distributed learning control is thus presented as a vehicle for focussing on the important dimensions and qualities of coordination. Motivated by this discussion, the paper subsequently delves further into the issue of sociality by considering the question of the micro-macro link extensively discussed in sociology. In particular, the paper shows how coordination can offer a resolution of the question in the context of design, and discusses the effects of such an approach for our understanding of the relationship between complexity and design.  相似文献   

13.
小微企业是经济增长、技术创新和社会稳定的重要力量。它们虽然数量众多,但囿于人力、技术和信息资源,难以独立开展技术创新。本文在相关概念界定的基础上,根据小微企业技术创新的特点,分别运用经济学中交易成本和产业组织理论,以及管理学中的资源基础论、战略管理、战略创业、知识管理和社会资本等理论,分析了小微企业的合作技术创新动机,这有助于更深刻地理解小微企业的合作技术创新。  相似文献   

14.
Simone Arnaldi 《Futures》2008,40(9):795-802
Futures studies express a deep concern for the negative effect school education has on young people's images of the future and their proactive attitude to the future. Here, images are regarded as cultural maps and the article attempts to outline a model of interaction in the classroom, which may be useful for understanding how school practices affect images.Given the cultural perspective on images, the analysis focuses on the social processes that organise the creation, negotiation, and distribution of cultural inventories in the classroom, including the meanings and meaningful expressions about future.
Whenever a culture is understood to be a collective phenomenon, it needs a sociology. When this sociology is left implicit, the danger is greater than it is a weak sociology.Ulf Hannerz
  相似文献   

15.
Indigenous knowledge (IK) research should help to militate against top-down development strategies out of touch with diverse cultural values and knowledge, seeking to incorporate an understanding of local socio-cultural contexts within which know-how and practices are set. A major endorsement for IK initiatives in the context of participatory development is that these will likely facilitate more successful interventions. Such research, for example, may inform and better guide scientific understanding and so assist in the formulation of policy in a way that can relate to local realities. Nevertheless, there are many obstacles to its acceptance within mainstream development. Indeed according to some such research has no future, falling out of favour alongside growing critiques of the misappropriation of participatory ideology and methods.In this paper we explore the challenges facing IK research as it continues to seek real alternatives that advance a prominent place for local perspectives. We address the problems of developing and refining methodologies to facilitate more effective realisation of participatory approaches and consider the possible limits of the IK approach when set within current development ideologies, heavily influenced by politically dominant western nations and their changing agendas. In examining these concerns we envisage possible futures for the IK initiative. We highlight that its growth partly depends on the continued promotion of a holistic approach through the advancement of interdisciplinary skills, combining the technical know-how of natural scientists with the cultural empathy of social scientists and facilitating communication and collaboration between all actors. However, bolder steps are required in the future if we are to convince authorities that there are benefits to be gained by giving more opportunity to local communities to determine their own destinies, and to advocate the inclusion of alternative diverse views of development onto the political agenda.  相似文献   

16.
The Honey Bee Network has helped provide a sort of loose platform to converge creative, but uncoordinated individuals across not only Indian states having varying cultural, linguistic and social ethos, but also in 75 other countries around the world. What the Network is trying to do in a rather quiet manner may transform the way the resources—in which poor people are rich—are used in the future. These resources are their knowledge, innovations and sustainable practices.I first argue that the classical concept of social capital does not distinguish between the trust in society created for social good versus social ‘bad’. For instance, the trust among members of the mafia and other socially undesirable networks does not constitute social capital. I am also trying to emphasize that part of social trust which is guided by higher ethical values which may not have become social norms as yet. This is being characterized as ethical capital. Finally, I conclude that the Honey Bee Network has tried to articulate the social and the ethical capital of society at the grassroots to demonstrate how local individuals and communities are trying to solve local problems without any outside help.  相似文献   

17.
This paper reports on interviews with salmon farmers exploring their decision as to whether to adopt organic production methods. Organic salmon farming has the potential to considerably reduce the social, environmental and economic risks associated with salmon farming. Salmon farming is an industry subjected to intense scrutiny and is highly controversial. The combination of these two factors was expected to reveal the use of environmental accounting in evaluating this potentially difficult, expensive strategic decision, responding to the barrage of public criticism, driven by changing environmental regulations and a potential value shift by key actors.However, interviews revealed that going organic was regarded as a normal agricultural decision, largely based on price forecasts. The shift to organic was relatively easy, unproblematic and not too expensive. The environmental pressure groups campaigns had very little impact on this decision and it was not subjected to systematic accounting evaluation. The interviews described a sector exhibiting many of the characteristics of Beck's Risk Society thesis (1992, 1995, 1996).Decision makers’ risk perception is identified as important for considering what factors are thought to be legitimate/illegitimate and powerful/weak in the decision making process. Unless risks are considered ‘real’ by the decision makers then the associated costs/benefits of doing or not doing something are not going to figure in the decision heuristics, regardless of the nature of their calculation. Environmental accounting could play a part, not necessarily at the individual farm level, but as part of a reflexive process in reconstructing the underlying knowledge of the social, environmental and economic risks of salmon farming as a whole.  相似文献   

18.
In a recent survey of academic research, Fintech related topics, broadly classified as crypto-currency studies, were by far the most researched topics in the social sciences. However, we have observed that, perhaps surprisingly, even though crypto-currencies rely on a distributed accounting ledger technology, relatively few of those studies were conducted by accounting academics. While some of the features of a system like Bitcoin do not necessarily rely on a traditional accounting knowledge, this knowledge is key in designing effective real-world distributed systems. Building on a foundational framework developed by Risius and Spohrer (2017), we provide support for their hypothesis that to date, research in this area has been predominantly of a somewhat narrow focus (i.e., based upon exploiting existing programming solutions without adequately considering the fundamental needs of users). This is particularly reflected by the abundance of Bitcoin-like crypto-currency code-bases with little or no place for business applications. We suggest that this may severely limit an appreciation of the relevance and applicability of decentralized systems, and how they may support value creation and improved governance. We provide supporting arguments for this statement by considering four applied classes of problems where a blockchain/distributed ledger can add value without requiring a crypto-currency to be an integral part of the functioning system. We note that each class of problem has been viewed previously as part of accounting issues within the legacy centralized ledger systems paradigm. We show how accounting knowledge is still relevant in the shift from centralized to decentralized ledger systems. We advance the debate on the development of (crypto-currency free) value-creating distributed ledger systems by showing that applying accounting knowledge in this area has potentially a much wider impact than that currently being applied in areas limited to auditing and operations management. We develop a typology for general distributed ledger design which assists potential users to understand the wide range of choices when developing such systems.  相似文献   

19.
The role of knowledge in internationalization   总被引:1,自引:0,他引:1  
This paper examines the role of knowledge in the internationalization of the firm. The earlier internationalization process models are reviewed and challenges relating to their assumptions about knowledge are highlighted. This is discussed in relation to a relatively new phenomenon, the “Born Global” phenomenon. A synthesis of the research to date on this phenomenon is presented. In the context of a new world economy, a different perspective on the role of knowledge emerges. This view of knowledge is one in which knowledge intensity and internationalization knowledge accumulation influence the pace and pattern of firm internationalization. The paper calls for further research in this area.  相似文献   

20.
Bridget Rosewell 《Futures》2005,37(7):699-710
Social science is enmeshed from the outset in an interaction between individual agents, collective action and analytical response. The desire to implement policy and create a preferred outcome provides further complication. There is a fundamental confusion between knowledge in the system and knowledge about it. Classical market analysis divorces the two; in practice agents use both. Moreover, they use their knowledge to change the system. A given set of rules may therefore produce a variety of outcomes. Unless this phenomenon is better understood and analysed, policy-making will continue to produce unexpected and indeed undesired outcomes. Complex systems approaches offer a way forward into these issues which is beginning to bear fruit in thinking clearly about how systems can and should be analysed.  相似文献   

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