Profit strategy of Greek banks: cross-subsidization and diversification versus complementarity

This study analyses the profit strategy employed by banks in Greece using dynamic panel data techniques and a data set which includes proprietary supervisory data covering the whole Greek commercial banking system from 2004 to 2011. We provide evidence that banks use interest- and non-interest income (non-II) as substitutes rather than complements, with non-II representing an indirect competition instrument by the more efficient banks used in place of direct competition with their peers through prices on loans and deposits. This behaviour is explained by further decomposing the non-II into the relatively stable fees component and the volatile trading income. Moreover, we provide evidence that the net-interest income is primarily affected by the banks’ market power and their operating costs, while more efficient banks exploit their core deposit base to lever their non-II. Finally, macroeconomic developments affect both income components, which are found to be procyclical with respect to economic activity. In particular, the two income components are affected differently from inflation implying that non-II provides a natural hedge against adverse effects from deflation on interest income.     

Factors affecting trade in services: evidence from panel data

In the course of economic development, nations have typically progressed through stages in which agriculture, then manufacturing and, finally, services predominate. Concerns around the sustainability of manufacturing and goods export-led growth raise the importance of trade in services. In the context of a panel model, controlling for the factors that determine trade in general, we examine the determinants of trade in services in a sample of 46 countries over the decade 2004–2015. We find an ambiguous pattern of effects from institutional quality but strong evidence of the importance of trade in goods for trade in services.     

The persistence of innovation: a panel data investigation on manufacturing firms

This paper represents a contribution to empirical debate on the persistence of innovation in the firm, by exploiting an innovative panel database that, for the first time, links three waves of the Italian Community Innovation Survey with an administrative data source providing economic and financial information for firms in the Italian manufacturing sector, 1996–2003. By using both a dynamic logistic model and a Granger causality approach, we show that in order to innovate successfully it is much more important to have an adequate flow of profits during an appropriate time span rather than high profits only during one period before innovation. Our causality tests prove the existence of a dynamic interaction between innovation and profitability: successful innovation can, in the short run, generate the profitability conditions that can then enhance the financial resources needed to reinvest in new technological opportunities, thus causing the firm to persist in its innovative behaviour. We have also shown that another important source of persistence is represented by past innovative experience. A firm with consolidated innovative behaviour would have a higher probability of future successful innovation with respect to a firm that occasionally (or accidentally) innovates. Persistence in innovation enables a firm to take advantage of substantial technological and organizational learning effects, which improve with time.     

On the profitability of commercial banks: the Sri Lankan case

This study determines the factors affecting the profitability of licensed commercial banks (LCBs) in Sri Lanka, including the effect of the prolonged conflict which ended in 2009. Using an error correction model together with data for the period 2006–2014 of 10 major LCBs, the results reveal that, in the short run, capital and liquidity have a positive effect on bank profitability and default loans, interest margin (IM), operating cost, and interest rates (IRs) have a negative effect. In the long run, bank profitability is significantly impacted by default loans, IM, real GDP, inflation, IRs, capital, operating cost, and conflict. The ending of the prolonged conflict has significantly contributed to improved bank performance.     

Cutting the costs of attrition: Results from the Indonesia Family Life Survey

Attrition is the Achilles heel of longitudinal surveys. Drawing on our experience in the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we describe survey design and field strategies that contributed to minimizing attrition over four waves of the survey. The data are used to illustrate the selectivity of respondents who attrit from the survey and, also the selectivity of respondents who move from the place they were interviewed at baseline and are subsequently interviewed in a new location. The results provide insights into the nature of selection that will arise in studies that fail to track and interview movers. Attrition, and types of attrition, are related in complex ways to a broad array of characteristics measured at baseline. In addition, the evidence suggests attrition may be related to characteristics that are not observed in our baseline. Integrating IFLS with data from a Survey of Surveyors, we describe characteristics of both the interviewers and the interview that predict attrition in later waves. These characteristics point to possible strategies that may reduce levels of attrition and may also reduce the impact of attrition on the interpretation of behavioral models estimated with longitudinal data.     

Macroeconomic expectations and time varying heterogeneity:evidence from individual survey data

ABSTRACT

The goal of this paper is to investigate forecast heterogeneity and time variability in the formation of expectations using disaggregated monthly survey data on macroeconomic indicators provided by Bloomberg from June 1998 to August 2017. We show that our panel of forecasters are not rational and are moderately heterogeneous and thus confirm that previously well-established results on asset prices hold for macroeconomic indicators. We propose a flexible hybrid forecast model defined at any time as a combination of the extrapolative, regressive, adaptive and interactive heuristics. Controlling for endogenous structural breaks, we find that experts adjust their forecast behaviour at any time with some inertia in extrapolative and adaptive profiles. Changes in the formation of expectations are triggered mostly by financial shocks, and uncertainty is dealt with by using complex processes in which the fundamentalist component overweighs chartist activity. Forecasters whose models combine different relevant rules and display high temporal flexibility provide the most accurate forecasts. Authorities can then stabilize the domestic markets by encouraging fundamentalists’ forecasts through increased transparency policy.     

印尼钢铁业发展中的主要问题与潜力分析

印度尼西亚钢铁工业起步较晚,基础薄弱,虽然钢产量有较大增长,但仍不能满足国内需求。印尼钢铁产业最主要的问题是产品缺乏竞争力,但鉴于印尼是一个能源丰富的国家,油气、煤炭资源均很丰富,也有较多的铁、锰、铬、镍等矿藏,这是发展钢铁工业很好的基础条件。东盟自由贸易区协定有效减轻了东盟国家之间钢铁业的贸易壁垒,加上印尼处在经济发展的初级阶段,人均钢材消费量处于较低水平,因此,钢铁业未来增长潜力巨大。     

印尼经济发展总体规划解读

2011年初,印尼政府紧锣密鼓地编制印尼经济建设中长期发展规划,其政府高官披露了印尼经济总体发展思路。根据海岛国家的特点,印尼将设立6大经济走廊,主抓8大行业18类项目。印尼设置相关的经济发展中心,旨在带动区域经济的快速扩张,实现国家跨越式的发展。作者对各经济走廊的优劣势进行解读,进而分析了广东政府与企业界应当抓住这一发展契机,走出国门,率先到印尼布局,抢占发展先机。     

我国外商直接投资区位分布影响因素的实证分析

目前,我国已成为全球FDI最具吸引力的国家,但FDI在我国东部、中部和西部的分布极不均衡。通过采用动态面板计量模型对全国各省份的历史数据进行分析,分别建立全国、东部、中部及西部地区四个模型,全方位多角度地对影响我国外商直接投资区位分布的因素进行实证研究,并分析了目前我国利用外商直接投资所存在的问题,提出了相应的政策建议,力图为制定科学地利用外资战略提供理论支持与政策指导。     

中国技术创新影响因素的行业差异研究——以高技术产业为例

本文利用中国16个高技术行业的面板数据,对高技术行业的技术创新影响因素进行了实证分析,不仅研究了R＆D投入对高技术行业技术创新的影响,还考虑了行业融资结构、所有制结构、企业规模以及市场集中度等因素的影响作用。实证结果表明,R＆D投入是高技术产业技术创新的主要影响因素;技术创新的融资结构对高技术产业技术创新能力有显著影响,政府资金和金融机构资金在技术创新融资中的比例增加不利于提高高技术企业的技术创新能力;企业的产权制度改革对高技术行业技术创新能力有明显的促进作用;行业内的企业规模越大、市场集中度越高对高技术行业技术创新能力的正向影响越显著。     

开放因素对中国制造业部门的技术溢出效应研究

利用2004～2008年间的动态面板数据模型,对开放因素为中国制造业部门所带来的技术溢出效应进行了实证分析。结果表明:(1)开放因素对制造业部门的总体技术溢出效应存在很大差异,出口贸易对中国制造业部门具有显著的正向技术溢出效应,而外商投资对制造业部门的技术进步则存在负面影响;(2)分部门看,外商投资的技术溢出效应主要体现在高技术制造业和中高技术制造业部门,而出口贸易对所有制造业部门都具有显著的正向技术溢出效应。     

基于面板数据的中国农民收入影响因素分析

利用面板数据实证分析农业总产值、劳动者比重、价格和财政投入四类因素对农民收入的影响,结果表明,四类因素对不同地区农民收入的影响可用五种模型表示,价格和农业生产总值是共性因素,不同地区农民收入受不同因素影响.     

外部环境因素对房地产行业资本结构的影响

以资产负债率较高的房地产行业作为研究样本,深入探讨了房地产行业特征因素、行业环境因素和宏观经济环境因素对资本结构的影响。研究结果表明,我国房地产行业的资本结构基本符合最优融资顺序理论,房地产行业的盈利水平可以解释资本结构的61．15％,但解释程度远低于工业行业。造成这种差异的原因是由于房地产行业资产负债率比工业行业高,对外部环境的变化更加敏感。实证结果表明,众多外部环境因素对房地产行业资本结构有重要影响,用行业利润和行业投资者行业特征指标、房屋销售价格指数和土地交易价格指数行业环境指标以及国内生产总值指数、贷款利率和货币供应量宏观环境指标,共计7个指标,能解释房地产行业的资产负债率的99．52％。     

中国省际环境污染的动态综合评价及影响因素

基于单一污染物难以表达环境污染状况的不足,本文提出了能够代表整体环境状况的污染排放指数,并首次运用一种基于整体差异的动态客观综合评价方法对中国28个省1995～2006年的环境污染状况进行了测度,分析了中国和分区域污染排放指数的变动趋势,并基于经济结构和能源因素视角,采用面板数据模型检验了中国和分区域污染排放指数的影响因素。分析表明,要实现十一五规划中主要污染物在2010年比2006年减少10%的约束性目标,从三大区域来看,应该重点监控东部地区;从省级区域看,应该重点加大对河北、江苏、辽宁、山东、四川、河南、山西、广东、浙江、湖北、湖南等省份污染排放的治理力度,提高能源利用效率、制定符合市场机制的能源价格体系、加大贸易开放度和降低煤炭消费在能源消费中的比例可以减少污染排放。     

我国外商直接投资地区分布影响因素研究——基于空间面板数据模型

外商直接投资(FDI)在我国空间分布的显著非均衡性引发了大量有关FDI区位选择的经验研究,但相关研究往往忽视了FDI的空间依赖性对其区域分布的影响.基于此,本文选取我国1990-2004年28个省区的数据资料,从地区固定效应和时间固定效应两方面对空间面板数据模型进行估计,考察FDI的空间相关性对我国FDI地区分布的影响.研究发现,空间面板数据模型对现实FDI地区分布的拟合效果更好、解释力更强;我国各省FDI的区位分布存在正向的空间相关性,相邻地区吸引外资的增加能够带动本地区吸引更多的外商投资.     

Employer-supported training in Canada and its impact on mobility and wages

Using information on job histories and on two training questions contained in Statistics Canada's Follow-Up to the School Leavers Survey, this paper seeks to answer three basic questions: 1) what are the characteristics of the trainees?; 2) Does the receipt of employer-supported training cause an increase in the wage paid to those young workers?; and 3) Does it improve the degree of job attachment?; I find that more educated young people are somewhat more likely to be trained than high school dropouts although there is strong evidence of selectivity as employers clearly seem to support training for those that have the most “favorable” characteristics. Also, controlling for unobserved individual characteristics, I find that training has a sizeable wage impact for men while the effect is much more modest for women. Finally, results using Chamberlain (1985) fixed-effects hazard model show that the conditional probability of the employment relationship being terminated decreases substantially for trainees, which is consistent with the notion that the skills learned by trainees may have a sizeable firm-specific component. First version received: October 2000/Final version received: February 2002  I would like to thank Nathalie Viennot-Briot for excellent research assistance, as well as Claude Montmarquette and an anonymous referee for useful comments and suggestions. Financial support from Human Resources Development Canada is gratefully acknowledged.     

汽车产业资本结构对宏观经济因素的响应研究

以我国汽车产业为研究对象,采用时间序列回归、结构向量自回归模型及脉冲响应函数方法,研究我国汽车产业资本结构对宏观经济因素的响应情况。实证研究结果表明:我国汽车产业资本结构对货币政策工具中的贷款利率及财政政策的财政支出反应比较显著,而与通货膨胀率、资本市场融资规模及税率关系不显著;通过自回归模型及脉冲响应函数模型,可以看出宏观因素对企业资产负债率的影响具有不同程度的时滞,地方财政支出对企业资本结构形成显著冲击,持续时间较长,资产负债率受到的影响具有正负交替性。