颠覆性技术创新的政策需求分析——以智能交通为例

由于颠覆性技术创新具有科学突破性、长周期性、替代性、产业爆发性、价值跃迁性等特点,需要在不同的发展阶段进行不同的政策支持,特别是对于政府导向的重大颠覆性技术创新,更需要在关键技术研发和应用场景创造方面给与大力支持。智能交通作为政府导向的颠覆性技术创新,随着智能交通技术由基础技术体系、关键技术向技术融合发展转变,其政策支持也经历了由支持基础研发为主的供给型政策到以支持应用示范为主的需求型政策,再到以财税优惠和产业规制为主的环境型政策的转变。同时,本文认为应该注重颠覆性技术的阶段识别和应用场景开放,完善早期的培育政策和后期的市场引导政策,才能更好的促进我国颠覆性技术的产生和发展。     

面向CRM的客户知识管理能力研究

CRM过程是一个知识密集型过程,客户知识是实现CRM绩效的关键战略资源之一,最近的研究文献表明CRM和KM可以达到很好的集成．论文通过对CRM过程中客户知识流的分析,界定了客户知识管理的内涵：基于此,研究了面向CRM的客户知识管理能力问题,构建了客户知识管理能力的理论模型,主要包括部门之间的相互协同、支持的组织系统、与客户的协作、支持的IT系统和支持组织学习及面向客户的组织文化五个关键维度。     

A reliability engineering approach for forecasting technological breakthroughs

One of the major attributes determining system reliability, the one that has received the most thorough and systematic study for many years, is system survival function. A “survival function” is a mathematical formula relating the probability of satisfactory performance of a system to time. Here, probability of satisfactory performance is synonymous with probability of nonfailure or probability of survival of a performing system.In breakthrough analysis of complex technological systems, the situation is somewhat similar but opposite to the above system reliability case. For breakthrough forecasting, the problem is to determine the probability of occurrence of success of a nonperforming system. Thus this paper presents a quantitative methodology for forecasting technological breakthroughs using a new concept of “attainability function,” derived in a similar fashion as the “reliability function.”     

商业银行CRM的中国本土化业务流程重组研究

市场竞争日益激烈,我国商业银行越来越深刻地认识到客户是最有价值的资源.如何留住老客户和吸引新客户,充分挖掘和利用客户资源,成为国内各商业银行首要关注的问题.入世后外资银行的进入更加深了我国商业银行对客户关系管理(CRM)的研究和应用,借助CRM实现从"以产品为中心"到"以客户为中心"的经营理念的演变,实现对银行组织体系和业务流程的重组.本文在展开对商业银行CRM的应用和研究的时候,将CRM放在企业信息化和管理改造的整体框架中进行分析、论证和实施.将信息技术和企业管理结合起来,更深刻地体会"信息化带动工业化"的内涵,是本文的指导思想.     

Concatenate coordination and mutual coordination

We tell of the evolving meaning of the term coordination as used by economists. The paper is based on systematic electronic searches (on “coord,” etc.) of major works and leading journals. The term coordination first emerged in professional economics around 1880, to describe the directed productive concatenation of factors or activities within a firm. Also, transportation economists used the term to describe the concatenation of routes and trips of a transportation system. These usages represent what we term concatenate coordination. The next major development came in the 1930s from several LSE economists (Hayek, Plant, Hutt, and Coase), who extended that concept beyond the eye of any actual coordinator. That is, they wrote of the concatenate coordination of a system of polycentric or spontaneous activities. These various applications of concatenate coordination prevailed until the next major development, namely, Thomas Schelling and game models. Here coordination referred to a mutual meshing of actions. Game theorists developed crisp ideas of coordination games (like “battle of the sexes”), coordination equilibria, convention, and path dependence. This “coordination” was not a refashioning, but rather a distinct concept, one we distinguish as mutual coordination. As game models became more familiar to economists, it was mutual coordination that economists increasingly had in mind when they spoke of “coordination.” Economists switched, so to speak, to a new semantic equilibrium. Now, mutual coordination overshadows the older notion of concatenate coordination. The two senses of coordination are conceptually distinct and correspond neatly to the two dictionary definitions of the verb to coordinate. Both are crucial to economics. We suggest that distinguishing between the two senses can help to clarify “coordination” talk. Also, compared to talk of “efficiency” and “optimality,” concatenate coordination allows for a richer, more humanistic, and more openly aesthetic discussion of social affairs. The narrative is backed up by Excel worksheets that report on systematic content searches of the writings of economics using the worldwide web and, using JSTOR, of Quarterly Journal of Economics, Economic Journal, Journal of Political Economy, American Economic Review, and Economica.     

电力客户生命周期模式研究与营销方案设计

电力客户具有生命周期,电力客户生命周期是指电力客户关系水平随时间变化的发展轨迹,它描述了客户关系从一种状态（一个阶段）向另一种状态（另一阶段）运动的总体特征。本文的研究目标就是基于电力客户的特殊性,提出了电力客户生命生命周期的划分及各阶段的特征。给出了表征电力客户关系发展水平的变量,对各个表征变量,在电力客户生命周期周期各阶段的变化趋势进行分析和研究,并根据各表征变量在各生命周期不同阶段的变化情况,给出典型的电力客户生命周期曲线。从而分析、研究并建立电力客户的生命周期模型,基于生命周期理念,提出新的电力客户细分方法,即：基于电力客户生命周期理念的客户分类,并针对不同细分客户制定相应的营销策略。     

互联网+场景模式下反向驱动创新研究

互联网时代,快节奏的生活方式促成了时间碎片化,而人们的生活也逐渐处于多个碎片化的场景中。在互联网时代,“拥有规模化的客户并能够很好地满足其需求是企业生存与发展的根本”这一说法已经得到了充分印证,同时,不断升级的客户需求又进一步驱动企业不断创新。基于互联网时代的场景模式,从消费者需求出发,运用多案例研究法,探究案例企业由客户需求引发的反向创新动因、要素及实现路径,得出如下结论：①“互联网+”场景下,客户需求的不断升级是驱动企业反向创新的主要动因;②反向驱动创新的实现要素包括客户需求升级、技术迭代进步或商业模式颠覆性突破;③反向驱动创新的实现路径由客户需求升级引发市场机会进而引发企业技术或商业模式创新。     

Management contribution and the allocation of time in a labor-managed firm

The problem of time allocation in a labor-managed firm is considered under a technology specification in which the role of management in the production process is different from that of “ordinary” members. Two allocation schemes are discussed, the egalitarian and the Nash equilibrium. It is shown that in the model discussed the Nash solution brings about an output level that is lower than the Pareto-optimal output level. If the manager seeks employment opportunities outside the cooperative that reflect his success as manager, he increases his time input so that the output of the cooperative and the “ordinary” members' utility levels increase.     

Pictures and parts: Delivering an automated automotive parts catalog

The paper describes a classic challenge in business technology—keeping (or expanding) a market in light of changing demands and product technologies. Threatened by other firms in the microfiche publishing business and by new entrants offering catalog data bases, Bell & Howell reevaluated its entire approach to the automotive parts catalog business. In the process the company discovered how a properly concieved system could provide significant efficiency improvements in automobile repair operations. Much of the hardware needed for the system was “off the shelf.” As in many cases of technological development, initial expectations about what the new technology could offer were incorrect. The heart of the story is the company's persistent and iterative efforts to understand its customers' activities and to offer a system that could be tailored to, and justified in, the customers business environment.     

商业流通企业的客户关系管理策略

面对竞争日趋剧烈的市场环境,商业流通企业必须将客户关系管理提升到战略的层面,从客户获取、客户增进与客户维持三个方面加以思考,将＂以客户为中心＂的理念落实固化到公司的服务流程中,通过制定经营决策、客户服务与信息技术应用三个方面的策略来达成客户关系管理的战略目标。     

An introduction to nanotechnology policy: Opportunities and constraints for emerging and established economies

Nanotechnology has captured wide attention all over the world and excited the imagination of young and old alike. Interest in the subject has increased remarkably during the last few years because of potential technological applications, and commercial interest has skyrocketed. The promise of nanotechnology as an economic engine that can redefine the wellbeing of regions and nations is pervasive; yet the imprecise language, and overuse of the term nanotechnology, has made that term fuzzier, broader, and trendier than many imagined possible. This is especially evident in nanotechnology market projections, which rose dramatically over the past five years as more traditional “product families” were engulfed by the expanding use of the term. Government policy regarding nanotechnology has often resembled an embrace of imagination rather than a systematic use of what Sun Tzu and others have taught about strategic decision making. Further, if nanotechnology is truly the next wave of technology product paradigms, how will we provide an educated workforce to support it? Moreover, in company with these societal benefits come increased societal risks. This paper is intended to provide policy makers and strategists with observations that might limit actions such as those that led to the “over-hype” of nanotechnology and to the fear (or discounting) of societal risks. In the latter case we might learn from the experiences of policy makers connected with other emerging enabling-technology bases, such as nuclear energy and, to a lesser extent, the “dot-com” boom.     

基于客户价值的营销资源分配和关系管理研究

以客户价值和客户关系阶段二项指标为客户营销资源分配基准,结合客户关系管理的三项主要任务：新客户获取、高价值客户保持和危险客户赢回,提出了“以客户为中心”的资源分配整体框架,以及基于客户关系管理三项主要任务的资源投入最优比例模型。根据对不同客户关系阶段特点的分析,应该采取发展阶段、成熟阶段和衰退阶段关系管理策略。     

The process of applied technology forecasting : A study of executive analysis, anticipation, and planning

The objective of this research is a study of technology forecasting not only as a discipline but also as an executive responsibility by applying the information processing theory to this task. A protocol analysis from Ericsson and Simon, modified for this study, was used for the analysis of interview data of top executives from the magnetic resonance imaging industry and their superconducting magnet suppliers, when they had to face a specific technological event. The technological event is the breakthrough discovery of ceramic superconducting materials in 1986, and the fast technological progress that followed between 1987 and 1989. This paper illustrates the processes through which senior executives collect information, process it, and develop plans and predictions in the context of “hard” uncertainty. We use cognitive and strategic decision-making research to develop a normative typology of executive decision making in similar contexts.     

What crises could teach us about complexity and systemic management: The case of the Nestucca oil spill

In this article we attempt to uncover some systemic management principles for the better management of complex issues. Taking a pragmatic approach we have expanded the case methodology proposed by John Dewey to the case study of a major crisis. By proposing that crises allow for a better apprehension of complexity, we study the changes which were carried out or not, to this day, after the 1988 Nestucca oil spill that occurred in Canada only three months prior to the Exxon-Valdez disaster. After conducting a linear and systemic analysis of the crisis, we propose that the changes institutionalized thus far spring mostly from what we call “behavioral” and “paradigmatic” learning which are weak for addressing complex issues. Proposing that 15% of the people we have interviewed where able to derive a “systemic learning” from this crisis, we suggest several unlocking strategies that allow these systemic lessons to be institutionalized.     

Infratechnologies and the role of government

Government support of technological change is a complex issue because barriers resulting in underinvestment exist to some degree in most industries, so difficult allocation decisions for limited government resources are necessary. The structure and timing of government support is further complicated because in any one technological area, the nature and severity of underinvestment phenomena vary during the evolution or life cycles of the relevant industries. This paper focuses on the methods and rationale for government support of two elements in industrial technology: generic technology, from which specific products and processes (i.e., innovations) are derived, and “infratechnologies,” which are necessary for the evolution of the generic technology and its applications. Particular emphasis is given to infratechnologies because they are largely supplied by sources outside the industry and have consequently been largely overlooked in previous discussions of industrial policy. A case study of one major source of infratechnology, including quantitative estimates of industry impacts, is presented.     

A model of “coupled” technology transfer : A logistic curve approach

This article presents a mathematical model relating to the technology transfer problem. The origin of the problem stems from the existing trade-offs between the strategies of “technological progressiveness” and “static efficiency” employed by firms or countries defined as “leaders” and “followers,” respectively. The formulation of the model is based on the assumption that the technological development of a firm or a country follows a logistic growth curve when related to a specific technology. During the process of a “coupled” technology transfer, the development of the follower changes and its behavior is described by a first order nonhomogenous deferential equation. Different scenarios of the “coupled” technology transfer between the leader and the follower are being discussed.     

基于客户价值的企业市场营销策略研究

企业营销策略的制定是基于企业对客户进行有效的细分.本文通过对客户价值概念的分析,建立客户价值量--客户价值增长性矩阵,从动态角度对客户进行了细分.在此基础上,研究了不同类型客户的特点及对企业营销的影响,提出了针对不同类型客户企业应采取的营销策略.     

中国旅游业的顾客导向问题研究

顾客导向是市场导向理念的核心，实现顾客导向理念在中国旅游业中的应用是十分必要的。在实施员工顾客导向理念时，应注意贯彻以顾客为中心化原则，在有限资源的条件下尽一切努力识别、服务和满足顾客的需求，将其贯穿整个旅游活动的始终。     

The research strategy in management of technological innovation

The increasing importance of technology in the application world has imposed high demand on the research community for insightful and useful principles about “management of technological innovation” (MTI). This paper examines the academic legacy in terms of conceptual categories, causal relationships and taxonomy of relevant systems, and asserts from a system perspective that MTI as an applied science is still in its infancy.Based on methodological argument, this paper warns of the danger of hasty compromise of strategically important topics to “popular” definition of “researchability,” and suggests several research guidelines and approaches for this young interdisciplinary discipline:

1. (1)To explore new frontiers, use “proximate variables,” consider contextual factors and causation in broad terms, conceptualize “independently,” and pay more attention to case study method.

2. (2)To understand driving forces, be aware of practice, and focus on internal dynamics.

3. (3)To transcend complexity, adopt a hierarchical structure perspective and state-and-flow concept, and condense findings into configurations.

Finally, this paper urges the formation of an overall research strategy to accelerate the accumulation of MTI grounded knowledge.