Identification of consumers’ preferences when their choices are unobservable

Summary. We provide conditions under which the heterogenous, deterministic preferences of consumers in a pure exchange economy can be identified from the equilibrium manifold of the economy. We extend those conditions to consider exchange economies, with two commodities, where consumers preferences are random. For the latter, we provide conditions under which consumers heterogenous random preferences can be identified from the joint distribution of equilibrium prices and endowments. The results can be applied to infer consumers preferences when their demands are unobservable.Received: 8 May 2003, Revised: 14 September 2004, JEL Classification Numbers: D12, D51.I am very grateful to an anonymous referee, Donald Brown, and Daniel McFadden for their detailed comments and insightful suggestions. Section 2 of this paper is joint work with Donald J. Brown; it is included here for publication with his permission. Those results were presented at the 1990 Workshop on Mathematical Economics at the University of Bonn, the 1992 SITE Workshop on Empirical Implications of General Equilibrium Models at Stanford University, and, more recently, at the June 2000 Conference in Honor of Rolf Mantel, in Buenos Aires, Argentina. The comments of the participants at those conferences and workshops are much appreciated. The research presented in this paper was supported by NSF Grants SES-8900291, SBR-9410182, and SES-0241858. This paper is dedicated to Marcel K. Richter, who has inspired much of my research.     

Short or long-term contract? Firm’s optimal choice

This article studies the behaviour of a firm searching to fill a vacancy. The main assumption is that the firm can offer two different kinds of contracts to the workers, either a short-term contract or a long-term one. The short-term contract acts as a probationary stage in which the firm can learn about the worker. After this stage, the firm can propose a long-term contract to the worker or it can decide to look for another worker. We show that, if the short-term wage is fixed endogenously, it can be optimal for firms to start a working relationship with a short-term contract, but that this policy decreases unemployment and welfare. On the contrary, if the wage is fixed exogenously, this policy could be optimal also from a welfare point of view.     

Flip a coin or vote? An experiment on the implementation and efficiency of social choice mechanisms

Experimental Economics - Corporate boards, experts panels, parliaments, cabinets, and even nations all take important decisions as a group. Selecting an efficient decision rule to aggregate...     

Nature,roads or hospitals? An empirical evaluation of ‘sustainable development preferences’

While a key proposition is that a sustainable path is one where wealth does not decline, whether losses in natural capital can be compensated in wellbeing terms by more produced, social or natural capital remains an area of controversy. In this paper, we seek to better understand preferences for different combinations of assets that comprise (part of) the asset portfolio of a nation. In a study of coastal and marine natural assets, we test for the existence of weak or strong sustainability preferences using different compensation options (respectively produced capital and natural capital) offered to a sample of the public in Spain in the case of possible future oil spills. As a further element of this test, we provide an empirical reflection on Aldred (2002, 2006) and Turner (2007) who speculate that individuals may not view money as compensating for certain environmental losses whereas investments in social assets may offer a more acceptable compensation option. Our results do appear to circumscribe in some way the acceptability of investing in produced capital and reveal a tendency towards a preference for social capital compensation. Nevertheless, the size of the oil spill and the environmental beliefs of respondents also influence choices over the natural capital compensation option.     

On the rationalizability of observed consumers’ choices when preferences depend on budget sets: comment

In a recent article, Bilancini (J Econ 102:275–286, 2011) demonstrates that assuming either price-dependent preferences or preferences that depend on the choices of other individuals can render the theory of revealed preference effectively unusable. Some readers might be tempted to infer that economists had better avoid such assumptions. In this note, we argue against that conclusion in favor of a less categorical and more pragmatic approach. In several domains, we identify fundamental weaknesses in revealed preference theory and argue that in those domains, nontraditional assumptions about preferences significantly enhance our ability to explain and predict behavior.     

Acquirer's return and the choice of acquisition targets: does acquisition experience matter?

We study a sample of 6503 UK acquisitions completed between 1985 and 2004 and control for previous deals similarities. Returns for frequent acquirers decrease constantly but they remain positive through high-order deals. We do not detect an improving pattern of returns but, at best, a stable one when the deal is settled for cash. Using ‘characteristics-based’ experience variables, our multivariate analysis shows that the acquirers’ returns are unaffected by prior acquisition experience. However, we find solid evidence for acquirers drawing inferences from prior experience in designing the method of payment, selecting the organizational form of the target firm and engaging in focused acquisitions, which is consistent with learning through acquisitions. The results are robust to various consistency checks.     

Are subjective evaluations biased by social factors or connections? An econometric analysis of soccer referee decisions

Many incentive contracts are based on subjective evaluations and contractual disputes depend on judges’ decisions. However, subjective evaluations raise risks of favouritism and distortions. Sport contests are a fruitful field for testing empirically theories of incentives. In this paper the behaviour of the referees in the Italian soccer (football) league (“Serie A”) is analyzed. Using data on injury (or extra) time subjectively assigned by the referee at the end of the match and controlling for factors which may influence it (players substitutions, yellow and red cards, penalty kicks, etc.), we show that referees are biased in favour of home team, in that injury time is significantly greater if home teams are losing. The refereeing bias increases greatly when there is no running track in the stadium and the crowd is close to the pitch. Following the 2006 “Serie A” scandal we test whether favouritism emerges towards teams suspected of connections with referees finding that these teams obtain favourable decisions. Social pressure by the crowd attending the match however appears to be the main cause of favouritism. I would like to thank Francesco Aiello, Martin Brimble, Maria De Paola, Filippo Domma, Nicola Meccheri, Antonio Nicita, Michela Ponzo and two anonymous referees for useful comments. The usual caveats apply.     

Is an unfunded social security system good or bad for growth? A theoretical analysis of social security systems financed by VAT

This study investigates how unfunded public pensions financed by value added tax (VAT), as discussed in Japan, affect economic growth and whether payroll tax (PT) or VAT is the more growth‐friendly tax structure for financing public pensions. We examine these issues using overlapping generations models with parental altruism and find that a public pension system financed by VAT may increase economic growth when bequests are operative. By contrast, when bequests are inoperative, public pensions hinder growth unless agents are sufficiently patient. Finally, public pensions financed by VAT are more growth‐friendly than those financed by PT.     

Interdependence and spillovers: is firm performance affected by others’ innovation activities?

The creation of new knowledge is a case in which agents' behaviour can affect the performance of other actors positively, given that new knowledge creates positive externalities in the market. In this context, we investigate the existence of performance spillovers associated with innovation activities by quantifying the innovation produced in surrounding firms and controlling for the fact that a firm is itself an innovation producer. We use data from the Third Community Innovation Survey (CIS III) that measures innovation in a broad way, not reducing it to R&D and patents, which departs from previous literature on spillovers. Furthermore, to tackle the endogeneity of the innovation variables on the firm production decision, we resort to the firm intellectual property protection methods as an instrument. We found a positive spillover of innovation on firm value added. The results also show that process innovation spillovers are more prevalent than product innovation spillovers.     

Is there selection bias in laboratory experiments? The case of social and risk preferences

Laboratory experiments are frequently used to examine the nature of individuals’ social and risk preferences and inform economic theory. However, it is unknown whether the preferences of volunteer participants are representative of the population from which the participants are drawn, or whether they differ due to selection bias. To answer this question, we measured the preferences of 1,173 students in a classroom experiment using a trust game and a lottery choice task. Separately, we invited all students to participate in a laboratory experiment using common recruitment procedures. To evaluate whether there is selection bias, we compare the social and risk preferences of students who eventually participated in a laboratory experiment to those who did not, and find that they do not differ significantly. However, we also find that people who sent less in a trust game were more likely to participate in a laboratory experiment, and discuss possible explanations for this behavior.     

Commitment or discretion? An empirical investigation of monetary policy preferences in China

This paper offers a first attempt to estimate the policy preferences of China’s central bank by confronting a small-scale microfounded New Keynesian model in which monetary policy is described by commitment or discretion with the Chinese macroeconomic data over the period from 1992Q2 to 2017Q4. Bayesian model comparison reveals that the data favor discretionary monetary policy. Estimates of the loss function weights under both cases show that the leading policy goal is price stability, followed by output stability and then interest rate smoothing. Finally, through counterfactual analyses we assess how macroeconomic outcomes might improve, had the Chinese central bank been able to commit. These findings shed new light on the opaque Chinese monetary policy, and are robust to subsample analysis.     

The choice of dilemmas in Hungary's transition: Westernization or latin americanization?

This paper deals with Hungary on the basis of selected characteristics regarding European Union accession conditions. In most cases, there are no exact criteria which must be fulfilled. Therefore, the difference between the real and expected levels of performance cannot be measured. The chances for stabilization and growth, reintegration, or periphery are under investigation. This statistical analysis concentrates on the similarity between members of the European Union (and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development) and new applicants. The structural similarity and closeness can statistically prove economic success or failure.     

Innovation or imitation? The effect of spillovers and competitive pressure on firms’ R&D strategy choice

In this paper a firm’s R&D strategy is assumed to be endogenous and allowed to depend on both internal firm characteristics and external factors. Firms choose between two strategies, either they engage in R&D or abstain from own R&D and imitate the outcomes of innovators. This yields three types of equilibria, in which either all firms innovate, some firms innovate and others imitate, or no firm innovates. Firms’ equilibrium strategies crucially depend on external factors. We find that the efficiency of intellectual property rights protection positively affects firms’ incentives to engage in R&D, while excessive competitive pressure has a negative effect. In addition, smaller firms are found to be more likely to become imitators when the product is homogeneous and the level of spillovers is high. Regarding social welfare our results indicate that strengthening intellectual property protection can have an ambiguous effect. In markets characterized by a high rate of innovation a reduction of intellectual property rights protection can discourage innovative performance substantially. However, a reduction of patent protection can also increase social welfare because it may induce imitation. This indicates that policy issues such as the optimal length and breadth of patent protection cannot be resolved without taking into account specific market and firm characteristics.     

Gaining or losing? The social capital perspective on supply chain members’ knowledge sharing of green practices

To accelerate the reform of green management, organisations need to adopt new green practices to seek knowledge through inter-firm environmental collaboration. In order to promote knowledge sharing, it is important to know how organisations evaluate the logic behind their green practices, i.e. gaining or losing, by referring to crucial supply chain networks. We identified factors that were considered influential in adopting a new practice through the social capital perspective and also examined their impact on the green supply chain. This study used the partial least square method to analyse the green management performances of 160 Taiwanese firms. The results suggest that cognitive capital significantly affects knowledge sharing behaviours among supply chain members. Furthermore, while the structural capital had a significant effect on knowledge inflows, its influence on the outflows of knowledge was limited. Both the inflows and outflows of knowledge considerably influence green management performance. The findings indicated that supply chain social capital plays an important role in implementing the logic of adopting green practices and also aids network members in obtaining individually required resources.     

The effects of birth weight: Does fetal origin really matter for long-run outcomes?

This paper investigates whether birth weight itself causes individuals’ future life chances. By using a sample of twins in Japan and controlling for the potential effects of genes and family backgrounds, we examine the effect of birth weight on later educational and economic outcomes. The most important finding is that birth weight has a causal effect on academic achievement around the age of 15, but not on the highest years of schooling and earnings.     

Respecting entitlements in legislative bargaining: A matter of preference or necessity?

We investigate whether fairness concerns overrule strategic behaviour in legislative bargaining with entitlements. In a lab experiment, we vary bargaining power by using either majority rule or dictator rule to implement a division. We apply coarse measures in order to assess whether entitlements are respected. Our results show that with experience over one third of proposers make “extreme” offers, assigning at most 10% of the surplus to partners whose consent is not needed under the respective rule. Having observed extreme outcomes in the past increases the likelihood of own extreme proposals. Overall, we find significant limitations in the acknowledgment for others' entitlements, in particular for groups in which individual contributions differ.     

Balancing the risk of ‘Lazearian’ interrupters and the benefits of educational and social peers: tracing parental preferences for class-size reduction

Using Danish survey data from a choice experiment, parental preferences for class-size reduction are estimated. While parents with children in large classes are willing to pay for class-size reduction, parents with children in small classes are reluctant and even express negative utility for further class-size reduction. We interpret this as parents balancing the risk of ‘Lazearian’ interrupters and the benefits of educational and social peers when forming their preferences for class size.     

Farmers adoption of integrated crop protection and organic farming: Do moral and social concerns matter?

We investigate empirically the role of moral and social concerns in farmers' decision to adopt integrated crop protection (IP) and organic farming (OF). A survey questionnaire has been sent to 1286 fruit-growers and vegetable producers located in the French areas of Alpes de Haute Provence, Hautes-Alpes and Vaucluse. Analysis of individual responses (N = 243) shows that, although economic concerns play a strong role, a significant number of respondents give high importance to moral and social ones. We also examine how these considerations matter according to different crop protection strategies, that is, conventional farming, IP and OF. Using a multinomial logistic regression, we find that (1) social concerns (e.g., showing to others one's environmental commitment) drive both IP and OF adoption, (2) moral concerns (e.g., do not feel guilty about one's choices) increase the probability of organic farming adoption only, and (3) farmers who give high importance to economic concerns (e.g., cutting production costs) are less likely to adopt OF.