A Market Efficiency Comparison of Islamic and Non-Islamic Stock Indices

This article examines the martingale difference hypothesis (MDH) and the random walk hypothesis (RWH) for nine conventional and nine Islamic stock indices: Asia-Pacific, Canadian, Developed Country, Emerging, European, Global, Japanese, UK, and United States. It investigates whether Islamic stock indices are more, less, or as efficient as their conventional counterparts. We test four sub-periods of bullish and bearish stock markets, together with the financial meltdown and its recovery, over the period 1997–2012. We use the Escanciano and Lobato’s (2009) automatic portmanteau test (AQ) and Deo’s (2000) test for the MDH. We also apply the automatic variance ratio test (AVR) developed by Choi (1999) and Kim (2009) for the RWH. Over the period from 1997 to 2012, we find that three conventional indices (Europe, Japan, and UK) are efficient, but that none of the Islamic indices are efficient in these markets. During the recent financial crisis, our results indicate slightly more efficiency for the Islamic indices than their conventional counterparts. Our study finds that overall the conventional indices are more efficient than their Islamic counterparts. Nevertheless, during periods of general downturns the Islamic indices have shown the same level of efficiency as their counterparts. Furthermore, it appears that during the last two sub-periods under study, the Islamic indices have moved toward efficiency, displaying the same level of efficiency as their counterparts.     

A Survival Analysis of Islamic and Conventional Banks

Are Islamic banks inherently more stable than conventional banks? We address this question by applying a survival analysis based on the Cox proportional hazard model to a comprehensive sample of 421 banks in 20 Middle and Far Eastern countries from 1995 to 2010. By comparing the failure risk for both bank types, we find that Islamic banks have a significantly lower risk of failure than that of their conventional peers. This lower risk is based both unconditionally and conditionally on bank-specific (microeconomic) variables as well as macroeconomic and market structure variables. Our findings indicate that the design and implementation of early warning systems for bank failure should recognize the distinct risk profiles of the two bank types.     

Industrial Structure and the Comparative Behavior of International Stock Market Indices

Stock Price Indices are compared across countries in an attempt to explain why they exhibit such disparate behavior. Three separate explanatory influences are empirically documented. First, part of the behavior can be attributed to a technical aspect of index construction; some indices are more diversified than others. Second, each country's industrial structure plays a major role in explaining stock price behavior. Third, for the majority of countries, a portion of national equity index behavior can be ascribed to exchange rate behavior. Exchange rates explain a significant portion of common currency denominated national index returns, although the amount explained by exchange rates is less than the amount explained by industrial structure for most countries.     

Islamic and Conventional Equity Market Movements During and After the Financial Crisis: Evidence from the Newly Launched MSCI Indices

This paper examines the relationship between the Islamic and conventional equity indices by employing the newly launched MSCI Global Islamic Indices which began in 2008. We argue for the case of cointegration supported by fundamental, category and habitat theories, and against cointegration due to the fundamental difference between Islamic and conventional stocks in terms of debt ratio, accounts receivable and interest bearing securities. We find Islamic and conventional equity markets move together despite fundamental differences and given that market microstructure, dividends, capital gains, taxation and governance systems are different across the markets. Almost simultaneous movement of the permanent and cycle components of Islamic and mainstream equity indices has been supported by the application of the Beveridge Nelson (BN) time series decomposition technique. Theoretically, the volatility of Islamic equities should be lower due to their low leverage ratio. Surprisingly, permanent parts of the Islamic indices appear to be more volatile during the crisis period and less volatile during the post‐crisis period.     

Testing the Conventional and Islamic Financial Market Contagion: Evidence from Wavelet Analysis

This study is a first attempt at testing the extent of contagion for conventional and Shari’ah-compliant stock indices. We examine the period surrounding the U.S. subprime crisis of 2007–9 and the Lehman Brothers collapse of 2008 to determine the relative extent of contagion. We find no clear evidence of contagion during the subprime crisis however, during the Lehman collapse most conventional indices showed contagion. Interestingly, the Shari’ah-compliant indices mostly do not show evidence of contagion. Collectively, our results have important implications for fund managers in terms of asset allocation risk and policymakers seeking an optimal policy response to crises.     

Intraday Empirical Analysis and Modeling of Diversified World Stock Indices

This paper proposes an approach to the intraday analysis of diversified world stock accumulation indices. The growth optimal portfolio (GOP) is used as reference unit or benchmark in a continuous financial market model. Diversified portfolios, covering the world stock market, are constructed and shown to approximate the GOP, providing the basis for a range of financial applications. The normalized GOP is modeled as a time transformed square root process of dimension four. Its dynamics are empirically verified for several world stock indices. Furthermore, the evolution of the transformed time is modeled as the integral over a rapidly evolving mean-reverting market activity process with deterministic volatility. The empirical findings suggest a rather simple and robust model for a world stock index that reflects the historical evolution, by using only a few readily observable parameters. Mathematics Subject Classification: (1991) primary 90A12, secondary 60G30,62P20 JEL Classification: G10, G13     

Deviations from Fundamentals in US and EU Stock Markets: A Comparative Analysis

Abstract

A ‘two-stage growth’ discounted cash flow (DCF) model is built to test whether changes in the underlying market fundamentals help to explain movements in stock prices. Empirical results on two samples of US and EU stocks show that the ‘fundamental’ earning price ratio (E/P) explains a significant share of cross-sectional variation of the observed E/P, this impact being stronger in the US market. It is also found that: (i) the fundamental component of the E/P has superior explanatory power than simpler measures of expected earnings growth; (ii) ‘non-fundamental’ components, interpreted as signals reducing asymmetric information (such as firm size, the number of forecasts and the chartist momentum), mitigate the role of the fundamentals; (iii) current deviations from the fundamentals are affected by ex post adjustment of publicly available information in the EU sample. It is argued that differences in regulatory environments and in the composition of investors between the US and EU financial systems may help to explain these comparative findings. Results appear consistent with the ‘market integrity hypothesis’ postulating that reliance on publicly observable fundamentals is higher when insider trading is lower.     

A Comparative Literature Survey of Islamic Finance and Banking

There has been large-scale growth in Islamic finance and banking in Muslim countries and around the world during the last twenty years. This growth is influenced by factors including the introduction of broad macroeconomic and structural reforms in financial systems, the liberalization of capital movements, privatization, the global integration of financial markets, and the introduction of innovative and new Islamic products. Islamic finance is now reaching new levels of sophistication. However, a complete Islamic financial system with its identifiable instruments and markets is still very much at an early stage of evolution. Many problems and challenges relating to Islamic instruments, financial markets, and regulations must be addressed and resolved. In this paper, we provide a comprehensive comparative review of the literature on the Islamic financial system. Specifically, we discuss the basic features of the Islamic finance and banking. We also introduce Islamic financial instruments in order to compare them to existing Western financial instruments and discuss the legal problems that investors in these instruments may encounter. The paper also gives a preliminary empirical assessment of the performance of Islamic banking and finance, and highlights the regulations, challenges and problems in the Islamic banking market.     

全球股票指数权重比较分析

优越的权重指标是构造成功的全球股票指数的基础,除了市值、GDP可用作权重外,本文提出出口额、进出口额、商品服务贸易额也可作为权重,并对该5种权重进行了比较分析,结论是:由于各国股票市场发展差异较大,市值权重太偏重发达国家;GDP适合作权重,但美国的权重太大,全球股指易受其左右,另汇率波动对权重的影响也不可忽视;出口额、进出口额与股市相关性强,汇率波动影响很小,权重结构比较理想,而进出口额尤佳。     

Stakeholder Returns of Islamic Banks Versus Conventional Banks

Sharia principle shaping the Islamic banking model is most determinant on collection and deployment of funds with its ban on interest. This study aims to look at the results of funded activities in isolation for a healthier comparison between Islamic and conventional deposit banks with respect to their financial stakeholders. The differences are reflected as lower asset returns and lower returns for depositors of Islamic banks. These differences sustain throughout normal and crisis periods. Our findings show that despite differences in asset structures and returns, Islamic banks retain similar returns for shareholders to position themselves close to and in competition with their conventional counterparts.     

基于风险视角的伊斯兰银行与传统银行的比较

本文在对伊斯兰金融发展及其风险管理研究进行文献综述的基础上,对伊斯兰银行与传统银行在风险管理方面的异同和可鉴之处分别进行介绍、比较和分析,探索性地提出我国试点开展伊斯兰金融业务的风险管理策略。     

我国IPO长期市场表现的实证研究——基于超常收益率不同测度方法的比较分析

本文选取1995年1月至2000年12月沪深两市774个A股IPO样本,计算IPO的等权平均、流通市值加权平均和总市值加权平均收益率,并使用不同的市场指数及配比股票组合的收益率加以调整来评价IPO的长期市场表现。经过事件时间和日历时间的实证研究发现:(1)我国IPO在上市后3年内总体上表现出长期强势。(2)IPO长期超常收益率对使用何种参照指标的收益率来调整以及使用何种加权平均方法很敏感。CAR和日历时间研究的结果更明显地表明我国IPO存在长期强势特征,而且使用市值加权平均方法计算的正超常收益率更为显著。(3)Fama-French三因素模型和CAPM模型回归的截距项都表明我国IPO存在正的长期超常收益率。     

中国股票指数体系评价方法

指数体系应具备代表性、可投资性和服务性三项功能目标.本文提出一套符合中国实际的指数体系评价方法,来指导投资者选择指数服务商提供的指数体系服务.     

欧美股市延续强势 紧缩预期拖累A股

4月份,欧美股市延续上涨格局,主要市场指数持续攀升,截至月底,道琼斯工业指数上涨3．98％．标准普尔指数上涨2.85％,英国富时指数上涨2.73％．德国DAX指数上涨6.72％．法国CAC指数上涨2．95％,本月香港市场窄幅盘整．恒生指数上涨0．82％,由于受到紧缩预期的持续影响,A段市场呈现震荡回调的走势,上证综指月内下跌0.57％．深成指月内跌1．99％,工商银行A股和H股段价均小幅上涨．A股股价报收于4.56元．H股报收于6．57港币。     

欧美股市涨跌互现A股市场震荡整理

2011年3月,美国股市主要指数均温和上涨,欧洲主要股市普遍下跌。至月底,道琼斯工业指数上涨0.76%,     

Stock Price and Volume Effects Associated with Compositional Changes in European Stock Indices

This paper provides further evidence of price and volume effects associated with index compositional changes by analysing the inclusions (exclusions) from the French CAC40 and SBF120 indices, as well as the FTSE100. I find evidence supporting the price pressure hypothesis associated with index fund rebalancing, but weak or no evidence for the imperfect substitution, liquidity and information hypotheses. The results improve on recent evidence from the S&P500 index. The evidence for the FTSE100 additions shows, in particular, that markets learn about an imminent inclusion and incorporate this information into prices, even before the announcement date.     

欧美股市持续走强A股市场强劲反弹

2011年2月,欧美主要股市普通延续前期的上涨态势.至月底,道琼斯工业指数上涨2.51%,标准首尔指数上涨3.2%,英国富时指数上涨2.24%,德国DXA指数上涨2.75%,法国CAC指数上涨2.62%.A股市场一扫1月份的低迷之势,出现强劲反弹,上证综指和深成指月内分别上涨4.1%和7.57%,涨幅明显高于欧美市场,但对后市走势判断,市场仍在分岐.恒生指数月内表现较弱,当月下跌0.47%.工商银行的A股股价略有上涨,收于4.26元;H股股价涨幅较大,收于5.98港币.