丘陵地区乡村旅游与新型城镇化关系研究*——以四川省南充市为例

［目的］通过以丘陵城市为研究对象,建立乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合关联指标体系,评价四川省南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调度。［方法］运用熵权综合指数、耦合协调度模型、趋势分析、空间自相关模型分析方法,分析2007—2016 年南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化时空耦合协调发展关系,运用GeoDa软件计算南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调度的空间相关特征。［结果］南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化发展水平并不协调,呈“高耦合,低协调”状态; 耦合协调程度总体偏低、发展缓慢; 耦合度和耦合协调度发展趋势不一致,呈“反向”分布态势; 耦合协调度空间相关性较弱,各县域单元临近区域乡村旅游与新型城镇化水平存在差异性,没有显著的空间关联。［结论］南充市乡村旅游与新型城镇化耦合协调度水平低,发展慢,空间集聚特征不显著,关联性弱。丘陵地区乡村旅游与新型城镇化的融合发展,应充分发挥丘陵地形优势,提升乡村品质发展丘陵沟谷乡村游; 发展河谷江滩乡村游构建养生养老体系; 延续丘陵文脉,优化乡村空间发展格局。     

江西省新型城镇化与农业现代化协调发展的时空差异研究

江西大部位于长江中游城市群,属于中西部新型城镇化先行区,研究江西省新型城镇化与农业现代化的协调发展对中部乃至全国都有着重要意义。文章通过构建江西省新型城镇化与农业现代化评价指标体系,综合运用熵值法、耦合协调度模型、Arcgis自然断裂法等,对江西省11个地级市2014-2017年的新型城镇化与农业现代化发展协调度进行分析。结果表明:江西省各地级市的新型城镇化与农业现代化发展均已进入勉强协调阶段,基本消除失调发展地区、无优质协调发展地区;发展存在空间异质性,总体呈现出“赣北>赣中>赣南”的空间分布特点;江西省新型城镇化与农业现代化协调发展水平逐年提升但总体偏低,且大多数城市属于新型城镇化滞后于农业现代化的情况。     

西北地区资源环境承载力-经济发展-新型城镇化发展耦合协调性研究

为探究西北地区资源环境承载力、经济发展、新型城镇化发展3个子系统之间耦合协调发展状况,以2005—2019年西北五省区作为研究对象,从资源环境承载力、经济发展、新型城镇化发展3个维度构建评价指标体系,借助耦合协调度模型和障碍度模型,研究了各子系统之间的耦合协调关系及作用机理、五省区的系统耦合协调度的时空特征,并进一步分析了其影响因素。研究结果表明：西北地区资源环境承载力-经济发展-新型城镇化发展耦合协调性的综合评价指数在研究期内呈上升趋势,总体上向更好的状态转变,经济发展子系统与新型城镇化发展子系统在研究期内综合评价指数上升明显均大于资源环境承载力子系统,系统耦合度处于较高水平;耦合协调度表现出平稳上升的趋势,耦合协调类型完成了从濒临失调向中级耦合转变;未来西北地区应当树立持续发展理念,提升资源环境承载力水平,转变经济发展方式,促进各子系统协调发展。     

包容性视角下甘肃省新型城镇化发展水平评价

以包容性为研究视角,基于人口、经济、社会空间、生态四个维度,构建甘肃省新型城镇化发展水平指标体系,利用熵值法、耦合协调度模型及相对发展类型对甘肃省新型城镇化发展水平进行测度评价。研究表明,甘肃省新型城镇化整体发展呈向好态势,但发展过程中存在"包容性差-内在发展速度不一致-整体协调性差"的问题。提出了以包容性发展为依托,在新型城镇化各空间维度中提供更均等的机会,发挥各子系统比较优势,推动其与新型城镇化同步协调发展的对策建议。     

淄博市新型城镇化与农业现代化耦合度研究

［目的］新型城镇和农业现代化作为四化同步发展的重要组成部分,研究两者间的耦合度有利于区域甚至全国城乡经济社会一体化的发展。［方法］以淄博市为例,采用数据包络分析法对新型城镇化和农业现代化间的耦合度进行实证分析。［结果］2008—2017年淄博市新型城镇化和农业现代化协调发展的程度逐年增加,但一直处于次优水平,其中2008—2017年农业现代化推动新型城镇化的程度逐年增加,处于次优水平, 2008—2017年新型城镇化带动农业现代化的程度也逐年增加,同时2008—2015年处于次优水平2016—2017年处于最优水平; 同时2017年淄博市各区县新型城镇化和农业现代化协调度均处于次优水平,且新型城镇化带动农业现代化的程度相对于农业现代化推动新型城镇化的程度低,其中博山区、桓台县、高清县和沂源县的农业现代化推动新型城镇化的程度处于最优水平,其他区县处于次优水平,张店区的新型城镇化带动农业现代化的程度处于最优水平,其他区县处于次优水平。［结论］实现淄博市新型城镇化和农业现代化的均衡协调发展,必须加大农业现代化推动新型城镇化的程度,以核心区域辐射周边区县,进而促进两者的协调发展。     

河南新型城镇化与乡村治理耦合协调性分析

［目的］新型城镇化建设是实现全面建设小康社会的必经之路,乡村治理的有效实施是城镇化建设的重要内容,研究两者之间的耦合关系,有助于不断加快城乡一体化的进程。［方法］通过构建河南省新型城镇化与乡村治理发展水平评价体系,采用熵值法和加权法对2007—2016年新型城镇化与乡村治理发展水平展开了评价,采用障碍度诊断模型对制约该省新型城镇化和乡村治理水平的障碍因子进行了诊断,采用耦合协调度模型,探讨两者之间的耦合发展演变规律。［结果］（1）2007—2016年河南省城镇化发展水平评价分值呈明显的上升趋势,由2007年的0211提高到2016年的0788。二、三产业从业人数、亿元GDP专利授权量和城镇人口密度是该省城镇化发展进程中的主要障碍因素。（2）2007—2009年乡村治理评价分值呈上升趋势,由2007年的0444提高到2009年的0482。2010—2013年乡村治理评价分值呈现下降趋势,由2010年的0441降低到2013年的0397。2014年乡村治理评分开始上升,2016年相比2014年提高223%。农药投入、农村居民恩格尔系数和化肥投入是制约该省乡村治理水平的主要障碍因子。（3）2007年河南省新型城镇化和乡村治理之间的耦合协调度为0377,处于低度协调耦合等级。2008—2016年耦合协调度整体上由0403提高到0575,处于中度协调耦合等级。［结论］河南省新型城镇化处于良好的发展态势,但乡村治理较为落后,今后城镇化建设应以乡村治理为基础,努力实现两者的耦合协调度向更高水平发展。     

基于产业集聚的河南省新型城镇化发展水平评价

［目的］以往对产业集聚推动新型城镇化建设的过程研究较多,对结果研究较少,文章基于作用结果的角度,综合评价河南省产业集聚对新型城镇化发展的贡献。［方法］该文采用层次分析法构建了基于产业集聚的河南省新型城镇化发展水平综合评价指标体系,从定性和定量两方面入手对河南省产业集聚对新型城镇化发展进行评价。［结果］(1)经济助推城镇化是基于产业集聚的河南省新型城镇化水平的最重要评价因素,其次是社会助推城镇化、环境助推城镇化和科技助推城镇化;(2)从经济和社会城镇化而言,基于产业集聚的河南省新型城镇化水平一直处于不断发展上升阶段;(3)万元规模以上工业总产值能耗降低率（E1）以及单位土地使用面积SO2、化学需氧量排放量（E2）是评价不同区域产业集聚对当地环境新型城镇化的重要指标;(4)而集聚区每万从业人员有效发明专利数是评价产业集聚对河南省新型城镇化科技推动作用的重要指标。［结论］产业集聚对河南省新型城镇化在经济和社会城镇化方面表现为一定的助推作用,对环境和科技城镇化的影响与各地域集聚区发展水平有关。     

珠三角经济圈“经济-社会-生态-人口-土地”城镇化耦合协调发展的时空分析

针对当前多维度城镇化的发展失衡,将珠三角经济圈中15座城市划分为三大区域,以2007—2016年间的城镇化数据为基础,构建多维度城镇化综合评价体系,测算不同区域和城市的城镇化发展水平,运用耦合协调模型分析在区域协调发展战略下多系统城镇化协调发展水平的时空差异。研究结论:15座城市的各类子系统城镇化指数总体为上升趋势,但差异显著。在区域龙头城市的协调带动下,落后城市的城镇化综合指数有所提升,区域城镇化差距缩小;单个城市的城镇化耦合协调度等级最高仅达到中级协调水平,除龙头城市外,其余城市处于失调范畴,且5个子系统协调发展的城市数量为零;城镇化耦合协调类型总体向高级别类型发展,处于协调类型的城市在空间布局上呈现出从“倒U形”向“西低东高W形”、再向“同步纵深W形”的演变格局,表明高水平城镇化城市对落后城市的城镇化发展在空间距离上存在良性促进作用。     

山西省新型城镇化发展水平评价及对策研究

[目的]城镇化是一个自然历史过程,是我国经济社会发展的必经历程,测度城镇化综合发展水平及其影响因素对于把握城镇化健康程度具有重要意义。[方法]文章从人口、社会、经济、生态、空间等5个层面选取12项指标构建综合指标评价体系,结合主成分分析法对山西省新型城镇化发展水平进行测度,并就城镇化进程中存在问题提出适应性建议。[结果]山西省新型城镇化发展水平两极分化现象严重,太原市综合得分大幅领先于其他市。阳泉、朔州、运城等市城镇化综合得分低于全省平均水平。从空间上来看,山西省城镇化水平具有鲜明的空间特色,呈现出由中心城市太原向四周城镇化综合发展水平逐渐降低的形势。[结论]山西省目前仍处于中心城市太原市城镇化水平处于全国前列,其他城市城镇化水平具有较大发展空间的全省城镇化发展严重不均阶段,未来应充分发挥太原市的辐射带动作用,不断提升全省城镇化水平。     

西北5省区“生态环境—经济发展—城镇化”耦合协调发展及预测分析

［目的］探讨“生态环境—经济发展—城镇化”三维系统（以下简称“EEU”系统）协调发展关系,以期为推动三者全面协调发展提供参考。［方法］文章以西北5省区为例,在构建EEU系统评价指标体系的基础上,运用熵权法、耦合协调模型、GIS工具和灰色预测模型对西北各省区EEU系统耦合协调发展进行分析。［结果］2003—2017年西北5省区EEU系统评价值呈上升趋势,经济发展和城镇化系统评价值呈波动上升态势,明显高于生态环境系统评价值; 耦合度水平较高,协调度整体由过度发展大类向协调发展大类演变; 各省区协调度上升等级不同且未能达到优质协调等级,协调发展的制约因素有经济发展滞后型和生态环境滞后型两大类; 未来5年各省区协调度将稳步提升,但演进差异明显。［结论］提出要遵循科学方法,补齐生态环境短板;突破薄弱环节,推进系统协调发展;重点关注甘肃,实现区域协同发展的对策建议。     

Price transmission between products at different stages of manufacturing in forest industries

The theory of demand and supply implies a positive relationship, or “price transmission” between the prices of products at different stages of manufacturing. This relationship was investigated with quarterly prices of softwood stumpage in the US South, and national prices of forest products, from 1977 to 2002. All prices, net of inflation, were found to be nonstationary and there was no evidence of co-integration between prices. Vector autogressive models, augmented by Granger causality tests and multiplier analysis showed that there was a one-to-one permanent positive response of the southern sawtimber stumpage price to a permanent change in the national lumber price. There was also a one-third permanent positive response of the national paper price to a permanent change in the national pulp price. There was no relation between regional pulpwood prices and national pulp or paper prices. When price transmission was significant, the full adjustment took about 2 years.     

Application of an ecosystem function framework to perceptions of community woodlands

Owners, local residents, government, and conservation organisations can express divergent preferences in the development and management of local woodlands. The perceptions of these four groups were examined, in the context of three community woodlands in Eastern England, using an ecosystem function framework. In a pilot study, residents were able to allocate a relative importance to woodland ecosystem services which were then related to “regulation”, “habitat”, and “production” or “information” functions. However residents also placed importance on negative services or “dis-services” associated with the woodland ecosystem. Therefore a fifth category of “dis-services” was included in the main survey which included 84 local residents, three woodland owners, three government institutions, and six representatives from conservation groups. Each of the four groups placed greatest importance on services associated with habitat (16–39% of the total importance) and information (30–50%) functions suggesting, in this example, mutual interest in the use of woodlands as a habitat or recreational resource. By contrast a potential area of difference was the particularly high importance placed by one owner on dis-services such as fly tipping. In addition the woodland owners placed higher importance (10–20%), than local residents and conservation groups (7–9%), on the productive services of the wood. This suggests a need for communication when production-related operations affect recreation. The ecosystem function framework appears to be a useful approach for highlighting potential tensions and areas of mutual interest in the management of semi-natural ecosystems.     

In Vino ‘No’ Veritas: impacts of fraud on wine imports in China

China is one of the largest wine importing countries in the world and is poised for continued import growth in the future. Increased wine purchases throughout China have given rise to persistent fraud where fake wines are packaged and sold with counterfeit contents and labels. For exporting countries like France, counterfeit wines displace market share, damage foreign brand reputation, and cause distrust in consumers who are aware of counterfeiting problems throughout the country. We examine the impact of fraudulent wine events (as measured by negative media reports) on Chinese wine demand differentiated by supplying country. We employ the Rotterdam demand system and a switching regression procedure to estimate import demand and compare results across different media variable specifications. Results consistently show that negative reports disproportionately affect French wine regardless of how the media variable is specified. This is not surprising because most fraudulent events involve French wine counterfeits.     

An evaluation framework for earthquake-responsive land administration

In recent years earthquakes and their secondary hazards have claimed the largest number of lives of all large natural disasters. Some of the world’s most earthquake-prone zones are also areas of high population density. The impact is magnified by vulnerability factors including non-enforcement of building codes, knowledge gaps, urban poverty and poor governance capacity to manage and reduce earthquake risks. Poor security of land tenure and property rights increases the vulnerability of people and affects their ability to respond to natural disasters.Earthquake recovery and reconstruction provides very significant challenges for land agencies, with these challenges differing from one country to the next due to differences in the local context. Drawing on contrasting case studies in Haiti, Nepal and New Zealand this paper identifies the common post-earthquake land administration functions and challenges that may apply to many contexts. These lessons provide land agencies and other key stakeholders with a summary of the challenges an earthquake poses for land administration at different post-disaster stages. We also discuss the policy and regulatory, institutional, operational and preparedness lessons for land administration. From these lessons we propose a framework for evaluating the earthquake-responsiveness of a land administration system. This framework can be used by a land agency in an earthquake prone region, or where an earthquake has recently occurred, to assess what challenges to land administration might occur in the event of an earthquake, and the preparedness of their land administration system.     

Agrarian Poverty,Nutrition and Economic Class – A Study of Gujarat,India

This paper analyses poverty and calorific undernourishment in the Indian state of Gujarat, where high and market‐led industrial growth has resulted in rapid economic improvement. The study is carried out through a combination of secondary and survey‐based data. We conclude that the neoliberal agenda of uncontrolled, outward‐looking growth has not resulted in significant reduction of poverty or malnourishment in rural areas. Furthermore, while land ownership is officially used as a proxy for wealth distribution, class position appears a better predictor of poverty status in the rural areas than landownership per se. At the policy level, there is a need to revive the agrarian economy and create new non‐agricultural assets, and the primary focus in the state must shift to the distribution of created assets rather than a single‐minded focus on growth.     

Does sustainable agricultural growth require a system of innovation? Evidence from Ghana and Burkina Faso

This paper tests the ‘systems of innovation’ hypothesis for a selection of crops in Ghana and Burkina Faso that have shown significant growth in production over an approximately 20-year period. The question is whether such growth can only occur if supported by a system of innovation. Using two indicators (a common understanding on objectives and priorities, and a high level of interactivity), we find little evidence for the existence of anything that might be considered a high functioning system of innovation.     

Local impacts of industrial tree plantations: An empirical analysis in Indonesia across plantation types

The values ascribed to industrial tree plantations are often controversial. Hence knowledge of their perceived impacts is important for improving their integration in rural landscapes. In 2016 we conducted household surveys with 606 respondents living in villages adjacent to acacia, teak and pine plantations across three islands in Indonesia (Java, Borneo, Sumatra). Results show that perceptions toward pine and teak plantations tend to differ from those toward acacia pulpwood plantations in several ways. Pine and teak plantations are perceived to have a higher number and variety of benefits and services, a higher number of positive impacts, a better environmental record, and to present more opportunities to local people for use of plantation land and products for improving rural livelihoods. In addition, we find that villagers around acacia pulpwood plantations tend to seek economic development and infrastructure to open up remote areas, yet their expectations were often only partially met. Recommendations from our analysis include: the role of the State in plantations must be clarified and potentially reinforced; the role of institutions as intermediaries is fundamental; and contributions by communities to design of management plans should be accommodated.     

Upstream demand for water use by new tree plantations imposes externalities on downstream irrigated agriculture and wetlands*

Large‐scale tree plantations in high rainfall upstream areas can reduce fresh water inflows to river systems, thereby imposing external costs on downstream irrigation, stock and domestic water users and wetland interests. We take the novel approach of expressing all benefits and costs of establishing plantations in terms of $ per gigalitre (GL) of water removed annually from river flows, setting upstream demands on the same basis as downstream demands. For the Macquarie Valley, a New South Wales sub‐catchment of Australia’s Murray‐Darling Basin, we project changes in land and water use and changes in economic surpluses under two policy settings: without and with a policy requiring permanent water entitlements to be purchased from downstream parties, before plantation establishment. Without the policy, and given a high stumpage value for trees ($70/m³), upstream gains in economic surplus projected from expanding plantations are $639 million; balanced against $233 million in economic losses by downstream irrigators and stock and domestic water users for a net gain of $406 million, but 345 GL lower mean annual environmental flows. With the policy, smaller gains in upstream economic surplus from trees ($192 million), added to net downstream gains ($138 million) from sale of water, result in gains of $330 million with no reduction in environmental flows. Sustaining the 345 GL flow for a $76 million (406–330) reduction in gains to economic surplus may be seen to cost only $0.22 million/GL; but this is much lower than the market value of the first units of that water to agriculture and forestry.     

土地学科的建设和发展——"土地学科发展规划研讨会"综述

中国土地科学学科发展已取得很大成就,表现为专业教育和人才培养成绩突出、初步形成学科体系、取得大批研究成果.而存在的问题主要是基础理论研究欠缺、独特的土地科学研究方法体系尚未形成、研究角度单一、学术交流质量不高和学科带头人的影响力不足.土地科学学科发展目前面临着巨大的机遇和挑战,应明确土地科学学科发展的基本思路、发展目标及2010-2020年的主要建设任务和保障措施.     

Underpayment of Small Producers of Coffee and Cocoa in Sierra Leone

Fieldwork shows that many Sierra Leonean producers do not receive the official producer price for their coffee and cocoa, due to the concentration of buying stations, credit relations, the small quantities offered for sale, and the lack of marketing knowledge of the numerous and unorganized farmers. To the traders underpayment may seem economically justifiable to a certain extent, but to the farmers it means poverty and debt. A new village marketing centre project aims at remedying this situation and has already led to higher prices. Although no longer allowed to take their "just" share from the producers, traders are still willing to deal with the new centres.