Spatial analysis of urban growth in Spain, 1900–2001

The purpose of this paper is to improve the knowledge of the Spanish urban system. We study the evolution of population growth among the group of 722 municipalities included in the Spanish urban areas over the period 1900–2001. A spatial SUR model is estimated for Zipf’s law and shows the existence of two main phases: divergence (1900–1980) and convergence (1980–2001). Then, the cross-sectional distribution of urban population is characterized by means of nonparametric estimations of density functions and the growth process is modeled as a first-order stationary Markov chain. Spatial effects are finally introduced within the Markov chain framework using regional conditioning. This analysis shows a low interclass mobility, i.e., a high-persistence of urban municipalities to stay in their own class from one decade to another over the whole period, and the influence of the geographical environment on urban population dynamism. Previous versions of this paper were presented at the 45th Congress of the European Regional Science Association (Vrije Universiteit, Amsterdam, Netherlands, August 23–27, 2005) and at the International Workshop on Spatial Econometrics and Statistics (Rome, Italy, May 25–27, 2006). We would like to thank two anonymous referees, M. Bosker, P. Cheshire, A. Carrington, B. Fingleton, R. Guillain, E. Lopez-Bazo, J. Paelinck and the other participants of these meetings for their valuable comments. Coro Chasco acknowledges financial support from the Spanish Ministry of Education and Science SEJ2006-14277-C04-01. The usual disclaimers apply.     

Income distribution dynamics of urban residents: The case of China (1995–2004)

Using a 1995–2004 panel data of Chinese urban residents, we investigate the dynamics of income distribution in cities. According to Kernel estimates of the relative income distribution of Chinese cities, we find that: (1) the national across-city distribution of per capita GDP exhibits an apparent unique-peak distribution in 1995 and an “emerging multiple-peak” one in 2004; (2) for prefecture-level cities, income distribution has evolved to an “apparent multiple-peak” distribution from a unique-peak one; (3) the income distribution of county-level cities maintains a unique-peak curve; (4) most of the income dynamics of urban residents originates from prefecture-and-higher-level cities. We sample three representative provinces and study the urban income dynamics respectively. The analysis suggests that within a single province, urban income distribution evolves from unique-peak to twin-peak curve; while among provinces, income convergence is evident for urban residents. In addition, we measure the incidence of poverty in cities based on our income dynamics analysis, and find that the ratios of people living below absolute poverty line have been decreasing at cities of all levels.     

Saving neighborhoods by saving farms: Metropolitan congregations united for St. Louis challenges urban sprawl

Critics usually decry urban sprawl's impact on the natural geograph— polluted air and water, vanishing farmlands, forests and open spaces. However, urban sprawl's effect onhuman geography has been even greater, as exemplified by metro St. Louis. With the region's urbanized land growing at seven times the rate of urbanized population, sprawl accelerated the decline of the central city and older, built-out suburbs (St. Louis lost over half its population since mid-century), increased economic segregation and stagnation (10 percent in 20 years by one measure) even as racial barriers were slowly lowered, and widened fiscal disparities among local governments (St. Louis City's property evaluation shrank by over 70 percent in 35 years). Inner-city and older-suburb coalitions, like Metropolitan Congregations United for St. Louis, are now joining environmental advocates to lobby for new state growth management laws. “We cannot win the ‘inside game’ without winning the ‘outside game,’” church leader explained. David Rusk is an urban policy consultant and author of Cities without Suburbs (1993),Baltimore Unbound (1995), andInside Game/Outside Game (1999). He is a former mayor of Albuquerque and New Mexico legislator.     

Public pension and household saving: Evidence from urban China

We relate household savings to pension reform, to explain the high household savings rates in urban China from a new perspective. We use the exogenous – policy-induced – variation in pension wealth to estimate explicitly the impact of pension wealth on household savings, and obtain evidence of a significant offset effect of pension wealth on household savings. Although the size of the effect depends on the parameter values assumed, the finding that household savings are affected by pension reform is robust. Our estimates show that, under plausible scenarios, pension reform boosted household savings rates in 1999 by about 6–9 percentage points for cohorts aged 25–29 and by about 2–3 percentage points for cohorts aged 50–59. Our results also indicate that declining pension wealth reduces expenditure on education and health more than on other consumption items.     

A numerical simulation analysis of (Hukou) labour mobility restrictions in China

We use numerical simulation methods to analyze the Hukou system of permanent registration in China which many believe has supported growing relative inequality over the last 20 years by restraining labour migration both between the countryside and urban areas and between regions and cities. Our aim is to inject economic modelling into the debate on sources of inequality in China which thus far has been largely statistical. We first use a model with homogeneous labour in which wage inequality across various geographical divides in China is supported solely by quantity based migration restrictions (urban–rural areas, rich–poor regions, eastern-central and western (non-coastal) zones, eastern and central-western development zones, eastern–central–western zones, more disaggregated 6 regional classifications, and an all 31 provincial classification). We calibrate this model to base case data and when we remove migration restrictions all wage and most income inequality disappears. Results from this model structure points to a significant role for Hukou restrictions in supporting inequality in China. We then present a further model extension in which urban house price rises retard rural–urban migration. The impacts of removing Hukou restrictions on migration are smaller, but are still significant. Finally, we modify the model to capture labour productivity differences across regions, calibrating the modified model to estimates of both national and regional Gini coefficients. Removal of migration barriers is again inequality improving but less so.     

A comparison of city size distributions for China and India from 1950 to 2010

We examine the distributions of Chinese and Indian city sizes for seven decades (1950s to 2010s) using lognormal, Pareto, and general Pareto distributions. We ascertain which distribution fits the data and how the city size distributions change during these periods. The Chinese city size distribution is represented by lognormal in the early periods (1950–1990) and by Pareto in 2010, but is not characterized by Zipf, which could be attributed to Chinese government’s restrictions of migration from rural to urban areas and the one-child policy. In contrast, the Indian city size distribution transitions from lognormal in the earlier periods to Zipf in the later periods.     

Regional convergence of growth,inequality and poverty in India—An empirical study

The paper attempts to examine whether there is regional convergence of per capita consumption, inequality and poverty across various states in India. Using panel unit root tests that are robust to cross-sectional dependence, we find that inequality and poverty indicators converge at both rural and urban levels. Further, per capita consumption converges at urban level but not at rural level. Based on factor analysis, we find two groups of states for rural sectors, viz., low-growth and high-growth states, for each of which per capita consumption converges. We also attempt at identifying the responsible entities — central or state governments or both in cases where convergence is not achieved.     

Technical Progress,Urban Unemployment and Heterogeneous Firms

We construct a general equilibrium model of urban unemployment with a continuum of heterogeneous urban firms producing differentiated products in a monopolistic competitive market. We introduce a notion of pattern of technical progress among the heterogeneous urban firms and show that this pattern plays a crucial role in determining the effects of urban technical progress in a developing economy. In particular, we show that the possibility of immiserizing technical progress depends on the pattern of progress among the heterogeneous urban firms.     

The underdevelopment of service industry in china: An empirical study of cities in Yangtze River Delta

The service industry in China is underdeveloped, in comparison with not only the past experience of developed countries at the similar level of GDP per capita, but also other similar developing countries at present. We define this deviation of China’s service industry from the development trend in other countries as the “development deviation puzzle,” and propose a conceptual framework based on the “manufacturing cost disease” hypothesis to understand the reasons behind this puzzle. We test our hypothesis using the data from the urban cluster in Yangtze River Delta. The results indicate that labor productivity growth in service industry is driven by capital investment and the “development deviation puzzle” is indeed rooted in the “manufacturing cost disease.” Our analysis suggests that, to correct the underdevelopment of service industry, the strategy of investment-driven industrialization and urbanization must be changed. Expansion of producer services is important in increasing the intensities of human capital and foreign investment.     

Optimal Urban Employment Policies: Notes on Calvo and Quibria

We show that Quibria's insightful observation on the efficacy of urban policy in a model with an urban trade union and an urban informal sector holds, but with a revenue-neutral employment tax-subsidy combination levied on the urban employer. We also draw the relevance of the generalized Harris–Todaro model in providing intuition for the validity of this surprising result.     

A spatial network approach to urban configurations

Abstract We propose a spatial network approach to studying urban configurations by modelling explicitly knowledge transmission, aggregation and spillovers via links formed, as well as by allowing the population and the locality role (‘core’ versus ‘periphery’) in each location to be endogenously determined in equilibrium. We establish conditions for the commonly assumed monocentric configuration to arise as the unique and efficient equilibrium outcome. We also illustrate under what circumstances a spatial equilibrium may feature multicentric, urban‐rural, or multiple (disconnected) urban areas and under what conditions each configuration is socially efficient. We further characterize the spatial equilibrium by performing various comparative statics.     

To settle or protect? A global analysis of net primary production in parks and urban areas

We test—at the global scale—the hypothesis that human beings tend to build settlements in areas of high biological productivity, and protect (as parks) areas of low productivity. Furthermore, we propose an alternative measure of the extent and effectiveness of the global protected areas network based on potential net primary production (NPP₀). The average NPP₀ in urban areas and parks is calculated and compared to the average NPP₀ of the geopolitical regions and biomes containing these areas. Additionally, human appropriation of net primary production (HANPP) in parks is used as an indicator of the effectiveness of these protected areas. We find that in almost all regions of the world, humans have chosen to settle in the most productive areas. At the global scale, urban areas have considerably higher NPP₀ (592 g Cm^− 2 yr^− 1) than the global average (494 g Cm^− 2 yr^− 1), while parks have roughly average NPP₀ (490 g Cm^− 2 yr^− 1). Parks with an IUCN category of I-VI account for 9.5% of the planet's terrestrial NPP₀, compared to 9.6% of its terrestrial area. Although protected area and protected NPP₀ are nearly equal, this equivalence is diminished by HANPP within parks. Globally, the average HANPP in all protected areas is 14% of their NPP₀, and HANPP within parks increases as the park management category becomes less restrictive. Moreover, we find a positive correlation between HANPP in parks and the extent of urbanization in the surrounding region and biome. Area-based targets for conservation provide no information on either the quality of the areas we choose to protect, or the effectiveness of that protection. We conclude that NPP₀ and HANPP may provide an additional, useful tool for assessing the extent and effectiveness of the global protected areas network.     

Job-search and foreign capital inflow — A three-sector general equilibrium analysis

The purpose of this paper is to extend the Fields' (1989) multi-sector job-search model in a three-sector general equilibrium framework by introducing international trade and capital as input. The three sectors are the rural sector, the urban informal sector and the urban formal sector. The rural sector and the urban informal sector use one type of mobile capital while the urban formal sector uses a sector-specific capital. We find that the effects of an inflow of foreign capital in the urban formal sector on unemployment and social welfare crucially hinge on the relative factor intensities of the rural sector and the urban informal sector. We show that there is a possibility of trade-off between the government's twin objectives of improvement in social welfare and mitigation of the urban unemployment problem. These results are extremely crucial from the view point of policymaking in an unemployment plagued, low-income developing economy.     

关于河南省城镇土地供求关系的实证分析

研究河南省城镇化进程中城镇土地供给与需求，目的是在有限的土地供给和日益增长的土地需求之间寻找平衡，以促进城镇土地资源的合理配置和城镇经济的可持续发展，保持耕地总量动态平衡，进而推动整个国民经济的持续、健康、快速发展。     

Dynamic decision trees for building resilience into future eco-cities

Intensifying global urbanization and environmental changes bring about the imperative of sustainable urban development and decisions upon inescapable pressures and risks, but knowledge integration between disciplines is a limiting contextual challenge. This paper proposes a reformulation, in terms of urban risk management, of an earlier developed ontological scenario generation method. The procedure consists of several steps: (i) identification-and-prioritization of main pressures, (ii) paired discussion of pressures using four-cell matrices, (iii) re-visit of the pressures' priority order, (iv) articulation of short-listed pressures as decision-making questions, and (v) generation of scenarios via “yes/no” responses to each question, in their order of priority. In this article, the method feeds upon the general context described in recent multi-disciplinary urban studies and public strategic plans in the city of Iasi (Romania), to propose a formal procedure for enabling the acceleration of productive decision making towards city sustainability. Answering three top priority questions, namely “Implement a business-friendly and efficient governance system?”, “Develop a resource management system?”, and “Carry out a human capital accelerator strategy?” results in a 4-scenario set: Receding City, Wanting City, Promising City, Inspiring City. The scenarios are discussed in terms of systemic risks at the end of post-communist transition and beginning of the socio-economic convergence with Western Europe.     

Job mobility of residents and migrants in urban China

The large-scale reform of the state-owned sector and the development of a private sector in the 1990s changed the nature of employment in urban China. The system of allocated, lifelong jobs, denoted the iron rice bowl, that had previously prevailed under state planning was eroded, permitting more labor turnover and mobility. Using an urban household survey for 1999 that has rich data on job duration and job change, we analyze inter-firm mobility in the urban labor market, its evolution, and its explanation. A distinction is made between the institutionally favored urban residents and the rural–urban migrants. The mobility rate of migrants greatly exceeds that of urban residents. The extent, patterns, determinants, and consequences of mobility for the two groups are explored and compared. Journal of Comparative Economics 32 (4) (2004) 637–660.     

Positive dependency and virtuous cycles: From resource dependence to resilience in urban social-ecological systems

We argue that purely deficit-based perspectives regarding urban social-ecological systems (SES) and the human populations within them represent barriers to these systems' ability to move from undesirable system states into more desirable, sustainable ones. We characterize issues such as individual ecological identity, human exemptionalism, anthropocentrism, and resource dependence. We examine notions found in the resource dependency literature, where we trace the roots of ideas about dependency. We use this literature as a spring board into the possibilities of an antipodal notion of resource dependency potentially applicable in urban contexts, what we call positive dependency. Next we describe two possible sources of positive dependency in urban SES, urgent biophilia and restorative topophilia, followed by a brief discussion applying positive dependence to urban systems challenges and management. We conclude with the importance of recognition of positive dependency as a precursor to the development of a heightened sense of ecological self and sense of ecological place in urban SES, and provide insights and suggestions for further research into civic ecology practices that may enhance positive dependency on and investment in ecological assets that contribute to positive ecological senses of self and place, and the importance of these to achieving sustainable, resilient urban futures.     

"世界遗产地苏州"城市旅游空间结构研究

城市旅游空间结构的研究是研究城市旅游的一个重要方面。苏州作为国务际公布的第一批历史文化名城，城市旅游空间结构的发展颇具代表代。更重要的是，苏州拥有先后两批申报成功的的世界遗产项目－－拙政园等九处苏州古典园林，这使得城市旅游的空间结构又呈现出了特有的规律。本文在分析苏州城市旅游空间结构的节点、通道和域面要素的基本上，提出整合苏州城市旅游空间结构的两个途径：整体整合与核心整合，探讨了城市旅游空间整合的基本原则。     

Inequality in Vietnamese Urban–Rural Living Standards, 1993–2006

We investigate urban–rural inequality in Vietnam using data from the Vietnam Living Standard Surveys between 1993 and 2006. We find that mean per capita expenditure of urban households is consistently twice as much as that of rural households and that the urban–rural gap monotonically increases from the poorer to the richer groups of the expenditure distribution. To isolate factors contributing to the urban–rural gap, we apply the Oaxaca–Blinder type decomposition to a newly developed unconditional quantile regression method. Factors contributing significantly to the high urban–rural gap include inter‐group differences in education, household age structure, labor market activity, geographic location and their related returns, with education playing the most important role. Over the period, consistent with the country's massive rural–urban migration, we find that domestic remittance plays a significant role in shortening the urban–rural expenditure gap in the later years, 2002 and 2006.     

Has China crossed the river? The evolution of wage structure in urban China during reform and retrenchment

In this paper, we examine the determinants of urban wages in China from 1988 to 2002. We find increased returns to education but a decrease in the returns to experience. The 2002 data imply that the widening pure gender gap and the growth in the premium to Communist Party membership may have come to an end. The reform of the state-owned enterprise (SOE) sector and the shift in industrial structure out of heavy industry is shown to impact wages of workers within those sectors. We use recall panel data for 1998 to 2002 to provide fixed effects estimates of the impact of sector ownership, Communist Party membership and unemployment on wages. Journal of Comparative Economics 33 (4) (2005) 644–663.