费用效益分析法在环境审计中的应用研究

费用效益分析法产生于19世纪,它是作为评价公共事业部门投资的一种方法而逐渐发展起来的。20世纪70年代以后,环境公害事件屡屡发生,经济学家开始将费用效益分析法应用于环境污染控制决策分析,对环境质量的变化进行评价。本文试将费用效益分析法作为环境审计的一种方法进行应用研究。     

用TOPSIS方法综合评价企业的经济效益

评价一企业经济效益的经济指标有许多，如固定资产利润率、资金的利税率、销售利润率、固定资产产值率、流动资金占用率、人均产值等等，这些指标从不同角度分别体现了一企业的生产经营效益，但由于指标的侧重点不同，各指标在各企业的变化方向常常相互冲突。因此要客观地评价一企业的经济效益，就必须进行综合分析，本文用多目标决策分析中的ＴＯＰＳＩＳ方法对不同企业的经济效益进行综合评价，该方法以现有资料为基础，不受人为因     

对如何合理应用层次分析法的探讨

<正> 层次分析法(AHP法)是美国运筹学家Saaty在70年代提出的一种多目标决策分析方法。这种方法可以有效地整理和综合人们的主观判断,使定性分析与定量分析有机地结合起来,实现定量化的决策。层次分析法有着广泛的适用范围,即可用于定量型或混合型的多目标决策分析,也可用于非定量型的多目标决策问题。由于它在使用过程中具有简便、合理、有效等特点。因此,受到越来越多的人的重视,其理论方法得到了进一步的发展,近年来AHP法在国内多方面得到了越来越多的应用,如用于能源系统分析,人员素质测评,方案技术经济评价等等,但在AHP法的应用过程中往往容易产生一些问题,下面就结合AHP法中层次结构模型的构造,判断矩阵的建立及进行方案综合评价时不同量纲的量的无量纲化问题进行探讨。     

药品上市后效益风险评价方法综述

本文旨在了解药品上市后效益风险评价的现有方法。通过对NNT/NNH方法、多属性决策分析、三三原则分级体系和TURBO模型在药品效益风险评价中的运用进行介绍和比较,认为4种方法各有所长,在对药品效益和风险评价思路上存在一定差异。     

一种基于未确知信息的投资风险决策方法及其应用

本文通过对投资风险决策分析过程中的未确知信息进行分析和描述,建立了基于未确知有理数和盲数的两种未确知信息的投资风险决策方法,为投资风险决策分析提供了一种更一般的方法,最后应用于一个投资决策问题。     

项目评价决策中基于模糊数学的应用

我国现行工程项目建设过程中存在许多的事前决策分析,各种不确定因素及潜在事项对项目前期决策有着较大影响。本文通过灰色理论建造矩阵和模型,将模糊不确定的影响因素转化为定量评价数学指标,并结合实际案例进行分析,最终得出结论证明该方案的合理可行。     

基于前景理论的决策分析方法及其在工程项目评价中的应用

层次分析法是多目标决策常用方法之一,目前被广泛应用于工程项目评价中。利用层次分析法的基本原理,结合前景理论,提出了基于价值函数的决策分析方法。首先构建虚拟方案概念,把虚拟方案作为比较的统一尺度,用层次分析法确定准则权重,以最大最小归一化方法对特征向量进行标准化后,得到方案的数值表示向量,然后计算出前景值作为方案比较的依据。在统一尺度下,该决策方法适用于较多方案情况下对方案的评价与排序。最后,通过工程项目评价实例,验证了该方法的可行性和有效性。     

心脑血管疾病与社区干预

瑞典卫生技术评估研究所的任务,就是对卫生技术方面使用的方法在科学的基础上进行批评性分析,并对其开支、风险和优点进行评价。本文总结了瑞典卫生技术评估研究所《心脑血管疾病与社区干预》报告的第一章。     

基于BP神经网络的省级自然科学基金项目评价模型研究

在构建省级自然科学基金项目评价体系的基础上,针对基金项目评价提出了一种基于BP神经网络的多指标综合评价模型。该模型能够根据指标数据对基金项目实施效果进行有效的评价。用该模型对相关结题数据进行处理,其结果与专家的定性评价保持一致,说明该模型能够应用于省级自然科学基金项目代替专家评价。     

谈层次分析法在决策中的应用

层次分析法是一种定性与定量分析相结合的多目标决策分析方法,将决策者的经验判断给予量化,对目标（因素）结构复杂而且缺乏必要的数据情况下,采用此方法较为实用,是常用的一种系统分析方法。本文通过一个旅游问题的实例来说明其在分析决策中的应用,这种分析的方法可以推而广之,解决其他决策问题,是决策应用的通行思路．     

Corrigendum to “Dynamic multidimensional assessment of sustainability at the macro level: The case of Austria” [Ecological Economics 68 (2009) 2560-2573]

This paper explores the issue of sustainability at the macro scale employing multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods. The incommensurability of values and the essentially multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of sustainability challenge the use of composite measurement indices. This determined the choice of MCDA methods. Austria was chosen as a case study, due to the wide availability of data, especially on indicators of strong sustainability. The structure of the multi-criteria problem comprised the evolution of different sustainability dimensions over time. The process for selecting criteria included a critical assessment of institutional sustainability agendas (UN, EU and Austrian Government) and theoretical recommendations.After an assessment of MCDA methods, the NAIADE method demonstrated the most suitable properties for sustainability assessment. The application of this outranking approach was undertaken in two separate settings: long-term from 1960 to 2003 and medium-term, 1995-2003 with varying numbers of criteria. The response of results to the addition of evaluating criteria and periods was tested. The degree of credibility for accepting preference relations was also employed for sensitivity analysis.According to the results of the long-term assessment, especially in the weak sustainability setting, sustainable progress is taking place in Austria. In the medium term, in the stronger sustainability setting and, especially as the number of criteria increases, more incomparable periods appear and trends are less determined. Moreover, it is shown how results crucially depend on the methodological choices. This is one of the first applications of the multi-criteria tools to the dynamic analysis of sustainability at the macro scale.     

Dynamic multidimensional assessment of sustainability at the macro level: The case of Austria

This paper explores the issue of sustainability at the macro scale employing multi-criteria decision aid (MCDA) methods. The incommensurability of values and the essentially multi-dimensional and dynamic nature of sustainability challenge the use of composite measurement indices. This determined the choice of MCDA methods. Austria was chosen as a case study, due to the wide availability of data, especially on indicators of strong sustainability. The structure of the multi-criteria problem comprised the evolution of different sustainability dimensions over time. The process for selecting criteria included a critical assessment of institutional sustainability agendas (UN, EU and Austrian Government) and theoretical recommendations.After an assessment of MCDA methods, the NAIADE method demonstrated the most suitable properties for sustainability assessment. The application of this outranking approach was undertaken in three separate settings: long-term from 1960 to 2003, medium-term, 1970-1995, and short-term, 1995-2003 with varying numbers of criteria. The response of results to the addition of evaluating criteria and periods was tested. The degree of credibility for accepting preference relations was also employed for sensitivity analysis.According to the results of long-term and medium-term assessments, especially in the weak sustainability setting, sustainable progress is taking place in Austria. In the short term, in the stronger sustainability setting and, especially as the number of criteria increases, more incomparable periods appear and trends are less determined. Moreover, it is shown how results crucially depend on the methodological choices.This is one of the first applications of the multi-criteria tools to the dynamic analysis of sustainability at the macro scale.     

Measuring of International Financial Integration with a Multicriteria Decision Aid Approach

ABSTRACT

Despite the diversity of advanced approaches, the concept of ‘financial integration’ couldn’t be explicitly analyzed. Indeed, empirical studies have shown that the measures of international financial integration are one-dimensional analysis. Due to the ambiguity of the concept and its multiple determinants, it must be analyzed in multidimensional levels. The interest of this research is a proposal of a decision aid by a multicriteria approach (ELECTRE TRI) for determining the ranking of 47 countries according to the links between their degree of international and financial dependencies and the behavior of financial actors (trying to make governance decisions or diversification strategies of international portfolio).

Abbreviations: MCDA – Multi-Criteria Decision Approach     

Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

Comparing land-use alternatives: Using the ecosystem services concept to define a multi-criteria decision analysis

In landscape planning, land-use types need to be compared including the ecosystem services they provide. With multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA), ecological economics offers a useful tool for environmental questions but mostly case-specific criteria are applied. This, however, makes it difficult to compare findings. Therefore, we present a systematic framework that includes the ecosystem services as criteria into MCDA. The ecological quantification of the provided ecosystem services is combined with the assigned importance of the single ecosystem services. In a case study from the central Alps, we compared three land-use alternatives resulting from land-use change caused by socio-economic pressures: traditional larch (Larix decidua) meadow, spruce forest (abandonment) and intensive meadow (intensification).Criteria for the MCDA model were selected by experts, criteria importance was ranked by stakeholders and criteria values were assessed with qualitative and quantitative indicators. Eventually spruce forest was ranked as the best land-use alternative followed by traditional larch meadow and intensive meadow. The combined approach of MCDA using ecosystem services as criteria showed how criteria weightings and criteria indicator values influence land-use alternatives' performance. The MCDA-model visualizes the consequences of land-use change for ecosystem service provision, facilitating landscape planning by structuring environmental problems and providing data for decisions.     

Examination of Multiple Criteria in Health Technology Assessment for Application to Instrumental Analysis

Abstract:

The instrumental-ceremonial dichotomy is the analytical concern emphasized in instrumental analysis by original institutional economists for making welfare decisions. Paul Dale Bush and Wolfram Elsner explained that warranted criteria are required in order to conduct instrumental analysis. The concern for criteria led to an examination of multiple criteria decision analysis in health technology assessment in order to improve instrumental analysis. Health technology assessment (HTA) is one of the most active and extensive areas of analysis for policy making because medical technology changes very rapidly, expenditures on it are high and growing, it can harm as well as help, and there is intense personal concern by citizens who want wellness. Although HTA, especially with regard to the analysis of multiple criteria, has made considerable progress, its appraisal has been a disappointment. Thus, the purpose of this paper is to critique aspects of multiple criteria HTA in order to further develop instrumental analysis.     

Action-oriented approaches to technology assessment and working life in scandinavia

Several approaches to action-oriented technology assessment of aspects of working life have been tried out in Scandinavia over the past 15-20 years. This article gives an overview of the experiences in Scandinavia, with emphasis on a Danish point of view. Five different approaches to action-oriented technology assessment are described, based on an analysis of the social actors involved, the target groups for the technology assessment and the associated social mechanisms. These techniques follow the collective resource approach, the cooperative strategies, expert strategies and alternative technology, legal reform strategies and governmental technology promotion policy. None of the approaches proved to be totally effective on its own. The conclusion is that a new combination of approaches to action-oriented technology assessment and the development of a theoretical basis are needed.     

The analysis of expert judgment

Expert judgment is a necessary component of technology assessment. But current methods for attempting to integrate expert judgment with social value judgments in the formation of public policy are inappropriate and ineffective. This article advocates the scientific analysis of experts' judgments. Such analysis produces quantitative, pictorial models of expert judgment, thereby providing an explicit and retraceable procedure for a) documenting and comparing reasons for differences in expert judgment, b) helping experts to resolve such differences, and c) conveying information to decision makers in a clear and useful fashion. The proposed approach provides an alternative to the ineffective method of public hearings and recently proposed adversarial approaches such as the “science court.” Two studies are described to illustrate this approach.     

Improving pluralism in Multi Criteria Decision Aid approach through Focus Group technique and Content Analysis

Various economic valuation techniques and Multi Criteria Decision Aid (henceforth MCDA) methods seek to identify and evaluate the environmental impacts in aquatic ecosystems for the improvement of the decision making process. Despite the latter's ability to respond more effectively to the task of confronting environmental problems thanks to its multidimensional structure, strong criticism is levelled against the obscurity prevalent in the way the social preferences are elicited and certain criteria and weights are adopted. In the present paper, the Focus Group technique, complemented by Content Analysis, are applied in order to strengthen the pluralistic concept of MCDA approach and enhance the social learning in decision making processes. The analysis was accomplished within the framework of the EUROCAT project (European Catchments: Catchments Changes and their impacts on the coast), and was applied to the delta area of the Axios transboundary river in Northern Greece.