Macro Liquidity Risk,Money Growth,and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns: The Case of Korea

According to the homogeneity of money holding purpose, we decompose the broad money M2 into an underlying and a non-underlying part and propose innovations in future non-underlying M2 growth as a proxy for macro liquidity. In both the cross-sectional regression tests and the GMM tests, we find that risk related to innovations in future non-underlying M2 growth is strongly significantly priced in Korea, after controlling for the well-known risk factors and other macroeconomic variables. Meanwhile, risk related to innovations in future aggregate or underlying M2 growth is insignificantly priced. These results indicate that non-underlying M2 growth more directly affects macro liquidity than does aggregate or underlying M2 growth.     

The Determinants of Sukuk Market Development

The objective of this article is to empirically investigate the structural, financial, developmental, institutional, and macroeconomic determinants of Sukuk market development for a sample of 13 countries over the period 2001–2013. We employ the Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) procedure to tackle the problems of endogeneity of lagged dependent variable, heteroscedasticity, and serial correlation in the residuals. Our results suggest that a combination of structural, financial, and institutional factors seem to exert a significant effect on Sukuk markets. Indeed, larger economic size, higher proportion of Muslims in the population, better investment profile (IP), and lower corruption are associated with larger Sukuk markets, while higher interest rate spread is negatively related to Sukuk market development.     

Capital structure in an emerging stock market: The case of India

This paper applies two alternative methods of estimation, viz., fully modified OLS (FMOLS) and generalized method of moments (GMM), to analyse the determinants of the capital structure of Indian firms using a panel of 1169 non-financial firms listed in either the Bombay Stock Exchange or the National Stock Exchange over the period 1995-2008. The results thus obtained are robust across the estimation methods. Among the three alternative theories of capital structure, the pecking order theory and the static trade-off theory both seem to explain Indian firms’ decisions. However, there is little evidence to support the agency cost theory.     

The Sarbanes-Oxley act and corporate investment: A structural assessment

We assess the impact of the Sarbanes-Oxley Act of 2002 on corporate investment in an investment Euler equation framework. We allow a dummy for the passage of the Act to affect the rate at which managers discount future investment payoffs. Using generalized method of moments estimators, we find that the rate U.S. firm managers apply to discount investment projects rises significantly after 2002, while the discount rate for U.K. firms remains unchanged. The effects of the legislation on corporate investment are asymmetric, and are much more significant among relatively small firms. We also find that well-governed firms, firms with a credit rating, and accelerated filers of Section 404 of the Act have become more cautious about investment.     

Dollarization,Seigniorage, and Prices: The Case of North Korea

This study employs a general equilibrium monetary search model to examine the effects of the recent dollarization in North Korea on seigniorage and prices. Maximum seigniorage is generated at a high rate of money growth when dollarization is mild. However, under a high degree of dollarization seigniorage declines sharply when the money growth rate is high. Accordingly, seigniorage can be increased by de-dollarizing the economy through lowering the money growth rate. This finding implies that the post-2013 price stabilization may be a result of the restriction on printing of money with the aim of increasing seigniorage. This finding also recognizes that the North Korean authorities have little room for maneuver on monetary policy under the conditions of widespread dollarization.     

Performance of State-Owned Enterprises During Public Elections: The Case of Korea

State-owned enterprises (SOEs) pursue multiple goals to maximize public welfare. Therefore, governments must evaluate both their economic efficiency and their social effectiveness. However, government performance evaluation (GPE) of SOEs may be affected by political motives. This paper investigates whether SOEs are fairly evaluated by governments during political events. Using Korean data, we find no significant relation between public elections (presidential and national assembly elections) and the financial performance of SOEs. However, the GPE scores of SOEs are significantly lower in years in which a public election is held than in other years. In addition, the GPE of SOEs can be an important determinant of whether or not to replace CEOs. This research sheds light on the political use of the GPE for SOEs.     

Sources of Capital Market Segmentation: Empirical Evidence from Finland

Because Finland has experienced profound economic changes and financial deregulation since the mid‐1980s, we use it as a laboratory to explore issues related to time‐varying global equity market integration. Using a Finnish perspective, we construct two different portfolios of Finnish firms and a conditional one‐factor international asset pricing model. We examine whether the segmentation varies over time and across assets. We use time‐series variables for changing market integration (lagged foreign equity ownership, difference between Finnish and German short‐term interest rates, and a portfolio‐specific liquidity measure) and crosssectional variables (size and book‐to‐market ratios and industry sector) to show variation in integration.     

Volatility Implied by Option Prices: The Case of Takeover Bids

We model the effect of an impending share price jump on the implied standard deviation (ISD) of a company's options, testing the model by investigating its predictive ability for ISDs of companies subject to a takeover bid. Our model fits the observed ISDs well for all but certain deep in-the-money options. However, the model demonstrates that a discontinuity in the relationship between moneyness and the ISD both explains the combination of high and zero ISDs exhibited by these options, and impairs the predictive power of the model at these levels of moneyness.     

The Explanatory Power and the Forecast Performance of Consumer Confidence Indices for Private Consumption Growth in Turkey

In this study, we assess empirically whether consumer confidence indices contain information about future private consumption growth in Turkey. To this end, we estimate models for quarterly total, durable, and nondurable consumption growth with and without sentiment indicators. We evaluate in-sample forecasts and one-step-ahead out-of-sample forecasts from recursive ordinary least squares (OLS) estimates. We also test permanent income and precautionary savings hypotheses with our results. We use overall indices of CNBC-e and Turkstat-CBRT Surveys, and Consumer Expectations Index (CEI) and Propensity to Consume Index (PCI) from the CNBC-e Survey as sentiment measures. We show that the lagged values of consumer sentiment have explanatory power on consumption growth. However, when used in conjunction with other economic variables such as real labor income, real stock price, real interest rate, and exchange rate, only CNBC-e for total consumption, and CBRT and PCI for nondurable consumption provide independent information about future consumption growth. Similarly, the gains in out-of-sample forecasts are observed under the absence of other variables and disappear in almost all cases following their inclusion to the estimations. Finally, we find no clear evidence for either precautionary savings motive or permanent income hypothesis on the link between consumer sentiment and future total consumption changes.     

Stock Market Returns and Economic Fundamentals in an Emerging Market: The Case of Korea

This paper investigates the feedback relationship between stock market returnsand economic fundamentals in an emerging market. Starting from an intertemporalconsumption-based CAPM (CCAPM), we obtain a restricted VAR model for stockreturns and macroeconomic variables. We then apply this model to Korea and findstatistically significant departures from the restrictions implied by CCAPM.Consequently, an unrestricted VAR model is used to analyze the variations of expectedand unexpected returns in the Korean stock market. It is shown that the expectedmarket returns vary with a set of macroeconomic variables, and that thepredictable component is substantial. Reflecting richer dynamics in the data,relative to the usual single equation modeling in the literature, the estimatedVAR model shows considerable predictive ability for both real economic activityand real returns. Using the model for a variance decomposition of unexpectedreturns, we find that, although we cannot directly observe the market's revisionof expected future dividend growth, we can estimate a large part of therevision with the news in the expected industry output growth from our VAR model.Finally, we also find that economic fundamentals can explain only a smallportion of the variation in unexpected returns in the Korean stock market.     

Income Growth,Energy Consumption,and Carbon Emissions: The Case of China

The paper examines the long-run relationship among per capita income, energy consumption, and carbon emissions in China during 1953–2008. We employ the Toda—Yamamoto procedure to test the Granger causality in a vector autoregressive (VAR) model with levels. We find strong evidence of bilateral Granger causality running between income and energy consumption and unilateral Granger causality running from carbon emissions to income. We further provide policy suggestions to address the energy and sustainable development dilemma in China. These include diversifying the energy mix and exploiting renewable energy, enhancing energy efficiency, transforming the economic growth pattern, and reducing the reliance on resource- and energy-intensive industries.     

金融与消费需求关系研究的文献综述

2009年底的中央经济工作会议对2010年经济工作进行了全面部署,其中把扩大居民消费、增强居民消费能力和加快居民消费结构升级提到了前所未有的战略高度。本文对金融与消费需求关系的有关文献进行回顾,从消费信贷、股票市场、保险等三个方面对国内消费需求所受的影响进行综述,并对未来的研究进行了展望。     

Decomposing Labor Share Movements in a Small Open Economy: The Case of Korea

Small open economies import substantial amounts of materials from abroad, the prices of which are determined in international markets. This paper presents a theoretical model that shows the potential determinants of the labor share in such economies, and, as a case study, decomposes labor share movements in Korea using a structural VAR. The VAR estimates the effect of materials price changes on the labor share as well as the effect of other potential factors. It is found that a rise in materials prices lowers the labor share; the short-run contribution of materials price fluctuations to labor share movements can be quite large whereas their long-run contribution is modest.     

An Open Economy DSGE Model with Search-and-Matching Frictions: The Case of Hungary

This article builds and estimates a medium scale, small open economy DSGE model augmented with search-and-matching frictions in the labor market, and different wage setting behavior in new and existing jobs. The model is estimated using Hungarian data between 2001–2008. We find that: (i) the inclusion of matching frictions significantly improves the model’s empirical fit; (ii) the extent of new hires wage rigidity is quantitatively important for key macro variables; (iii) labor market shocks do not play an important role in inflation dynamics, but the structure of the labor market influences the monetary transmission mechanism.     

金融危机背景下消费信贷发展状况及应对措施:以山东为例

发展消费信贷、拉动经济回升已成为当前金融危机背景下需要研究的重点问题.本文以山东省为例,着重分析了金融危机以来消费信贷的运行状况及对经济回升的作用效果,并提出了进一步促进消费信贷发展、应对金融危机影响的针对性措施.     

Consumer Preference for Meat in China: A Case Study of Beijing

We analyze Chinese consumer preferences for pork shoulder-cut attributes during the recent period of fluctuating food prices caused by production and market anomalies. Consumers were randomly sampled in Beijing, China. Results indicate that consumers place great importance on where they purchase pork products as well as on whether the animals are raised with organic feed. Whether pork is fresh or previously frozen does not appear to matter much to consumers. This may provide partial support for the Chinese government's policy of using frozen pork reserves to stabilize pork prices.     

The balance sheet channel of monetary policy: the panel evidence of Egypt

This paper examines the effects of monetary policy on firms’ investments in Egypt using disaggregated data and generalized method of moments (GMM) technique. It develops the neoclassical investment model by adding the interaction between user cost of capital and cash flow (CF). Therefore, monetary policy affects investment through three effects: user cost of capital, CF and interaction between them. Using a sample of 124 firms, the empirical finding supports the relevance of balance sheet channel (BSC) and the heterogeneous effect of monetary policy on investment. This finding signals that monetary authority should take cognizance of the stability of interest rate to stabilize firm-level investment.     

新兴七国出口多样化的变迁及其经济绩效

采用修正的 Feenstra 方法度量1993~2009年 E7国家相对于美国的出口产品多样化样本期间中国出口多样化在波动中略有上升,而俄罗斯的多样化水平呈明显下降趋势,其他五国出口多样化呈总体上升趋势。进一步探讨出口产品多样化影响经济增长的机制,建立计量模型进行实证分析结果证实：E7国家出口多样化显著促进了经济增长,中、低技术制成品多样化对经济增长的影响作用要大于高技术产品多样化的作用;出口多样化与出口技术溢出之间存在互补性,出口多样化水平的提升促进了出口溢出。     

经济欠发达地区个人消费信贷发展机遇及制约因素浅析——以安阳市为例

央行早在1999年就出台了<关于开展个人消费信贷指导意见>,但长期以来,地处经济欠发达地区的安阳市个人消费信贷发展相对缓慢,虽然近年来个人消费信贷发展有所提速,但规模仍然偏小、占信贷总量的比重偏低,个人消费信贷对消费增长拉动作用尚未充分发挥.本文以安阳为例从经济欠发达地区个人消费信贷市场发展状况分析入手,阐述了存在的机遇,同时也总结出目前制约个人消费信贷发展的"三个误区",并提出加快发展经济欠发达地区个人消费信贷的建议.     

The Effects of Oil Supply and Demand Shocks on U.S. Consumer Sentiment

This paper investigates how the University of Michigan's Index of Consumer Sentiment responds to oil price shocks. While oil supply shocks play only a limited role, the effect of aggregate demand shocks is positive for the first few months and negative thereafter. A typical other oil demand shock has a significant negative impact for up to 2 years. By studying the responses of individual survey questions, we find that expectations of future inflation and a change in real household income as well as perceived vehicle and house buying conditions are the main transmission channels of oil supply and demand shocks.