Revisiting the ‘Cobden-Chevalier network’ trade and welfare effects

This study revisits the trade and welfare effects of 19th century bilateralism exploiting the latest developments in structural gravity models, including the consideration of domestic trade. Using bilateral trade data between 1855 and 1875, I show that the Cobden-Chevalier network, i.e. a system of bilateral trade agreements including the Most Favored Nation clause, has large, positive and significant effects on members’ trade. These, however, are heterogeneous at the treaty-level. I then calculate its general equilibrium effects on total trade and welfare. They are considerable, while trade diversion effects are negligible. These results reshape the understanding of the Cobden-Chevalier network, helping in further rationalizing the “free trade epidemic” of the 1860s and 1870s.     

Understanding the role of trade agreements in Indonesia’s FDI

In this paper, we develop the hypothesis that trade agreements influence foreign direct investment (FDI). We extend the conventional model of FDI determinants to accommodate the role of trade agreements. Fitting Indonesian data to this model, we discover strong evidence that, while both bilateral and multilateral trade agreements positively influence Indonesia’s FDI, multilateral agreements have a larger effect. We further distinguish FDI by sector and find sector-specific trade agreements play an active role: these agreements positively influence FDI in the primary and service sectors, but not in the manufacturing sector. We also find that trade agreements positively influence FDI through the export and total factor productivity channels, and less so through the economic growth channel.     

China’s fare share? The growth of Chinese exports in world trade

The growth of Chinese exports in market share over the past two decades is a singular event in the history of world trade. Using data from 1995–2010, we document this growth in a variety of ways. We show that the expanded trade is pervasive. Virtually every country in the world has seen China claim a larger share of its import market. Then, we use Constant Market Share analysis to determine which country or countries have lost market share as China’s trade has grown. Contrary to much discussion in the popular press, we find strong evidence that other developing countries have not seen export shares fall as a result of China’s gains. Rather, our results suggest that China’s share growth has come largely at the expense of exporters based in developed countries, especially Japan and the United States.     

US–Thailand trade at the commodity level and the role of the real exchange rate

Previous studies that have investigated the impact of real depreciation of the Thai baht on Thailand's trade flows have either used aggregate trade data between Thailand and the rest of the world, or between Thailand and its major trading partners. These studies have provided mixed results. In this paper, we disaggregate the trade flows between Thailand and its major trading partner, the US, by commodity and investigate the impact of currency depreciation on the export earnings of 118 American exporting industries and the outpayments of 42 American importing industries. While most industries are affected in the short run, the short-run results last into the long run in several small industries. The inpayments of large exporting industries and the outpayments of large importing industries are not affected. Economic activity seems to be the major long-run determinant of the performance of most industries.     

Are all trade agreements equal? The role of distance in shaping the effect of economic integration agreements on trade flows

Review of World Economics - How does geographic distance affect the impact of trade agreements on bilateral exports, and through what channels? This paper examines these questions in a gravity...     

The impact of the institutional and infrastructural environment on innovation-based development in today’s world

This paper provides a comparative assessment of innovation-based development in Russia and several OECD and BRICS countries. Several tiers of countries have been introduced based on the assessment. The impact of various factors on innovation performance has been calculated for each tier using the tier average values of indicators that correspond to these factors. As a result, the most common features that are typical for a given level of development of an innovation environment are identified. The analysis provides a basis for recommendations regarding a strategy for innovation-based development of the Russian Federation.     

The Russian market in world trade, 1500–1860

Abstract

The Russian market has played a prominent part in world trade throughout the ages. In Viking times Russia was a source of furs and slaves for the Arabian caliphate. However, from about AD 1000 the situation changed and from then on western Europe provided the market for Russian products. The trade with Novgorod and later on also with Riga came to be a vital element in the activities of German merchants, and the Hanseatic League's counting-house in Novgorod was an important rallying-point. In early medieval trade it was fur and wax products that were the chief exports from the Russian market. In the later Middle Ages other important products emerged: flax, hemp, tallow, ashes and skins. Flax and hemp were key articles for the shipbuilding industry, being used as materials for the rigging, ropes and sails. Flax was also an essential raw material for the textile industry. Tallow was used for the manufacture of soap and candles and also in making cloth and leather. Ashes and potash had a variety of technical uses, for example in the textile and glass industries. Skins were the raw material for the manufacture of leather. The products enumerated were virtually monopoly goods of eastern Europe and were regarded as quality goods. In western Europe there was a constant demand for Russian products.     

Transformation of the reproductive mechanism of the world economy and prospects for Russia’s socioeconomic development

The article substantiates the author??s view on the basic principles underlying the reproductive mechanism of the global economy. It shows the degree of specificity and consistency of the reproductive mechanism of the Russian economy in comparison with the global model. An evaluation is performed of the opportunities and conditions for a transition to Russia??s accelerated economic development and modernization of its productive apparatus.     

Explaining the structure of foreign trade: Where do we stand?

Explaining the Structure of Foreign Trade: Where Do We Stand?— During the last two decades, new research has greatly advanced our understanding of the structure of world trade. This article reviews the empirical literature that grew out of this effort and the theoretical developments that have been relevant for the empirical studies. But despite this research effort, explanations of foreign trade are still incomplete. We need a more technologically oriented trade theory and more emphasis on dynamics in order to understand the developments in international trade. JEL no F1, F14     

The nature and causes of intra-industry trade: Back to the comparative advantage explanation? The case of Spain

The Nature and Causes of Intra-Industry Trade: Back to the Comparative Advantage Explanations? The Case of Spain. — The aim of this paper is to contribute empirically to the knowledge of the nature and causes of intra-industry trade (IIT), distinguishing between vertical and horizontal IIT. To this end, we estimate a more general empirical model than those used in previous studies, by introducing simultaneously both national and industry-specific variables which include measures for human and technological capital endowments. The results show that vertical IIT is positively related to industry technological intensity and differences in human and technological capital endowments between countries. On the other hand, horizontal IIT is explained by the traditional monopolistic competition model.     

Where has the rum gone? The impact of maritime piracy on trade and transport

Review of World Economics - Despite a general agreement that piracy poses a significant threat to maritime shipping, empirical evidence regarding its economic consequences remains scarce. This...     

Multinational firms, market integration, and trade structure: What remains of the standard-goods hypothesis?

Multinational Firms, Market Integration, and Trade Structure: What Remains of the Standard-Goods Hypothesis? — In extending traditional empirical trade models to multinational firms, this paper shows the effect of the transfer of firm-specific technology and intangible assets by these firms on the structure of host countries. For Belgium, a small open economy with a large presence of foreign multinationals, this effect is of crucial importance and previous studies appeared to have produced biased results by neglecting it. The econometric results show how the large multinational presence induced by the European integration has shifted Belgium’s trade structure towards differentiated products, thereby challenging the standard-goods hypothesis which states that small countries tend to specialize in nondifferentiated products. Spain and Ireland have witnessed an increase in foreign direct investment and a shift in trade structure similar to Belgium after joining the EC.     

The impact of regional trade agreements on the quality of export products in China’s manufacturing industry

In recent years, under the risks of anti-globalization trend and uncertainty of trade war, countries have been entering into bilateral and multilateral regional trade agreements (RTAs). This study constructs both theoretical and empirical models to examine whether these RTAs can improve the quality of exported products among Chinese manufacturing enterprises, thereby expanding on a new policy research area that focuses on improving Chinese export quality or import quality of RTAs trade partners from China. The study finds that RTAs’ clause quantity (measured by clause coverage rate) and clause quality (measured by law commitment rate) play different roles. The former can generate “spaghetti bowl” effect but the latter can significantly promote export quality for Chinese manufacturers. The study also finds that RTAs can promote balanced development among the various regions in China and that a new generation of binding clauses in the “WTO-X field” with more new clauses strongly affects efforts to improve the quality of products exported to high and upper-middle income markets. We also find that for most industries, signing high-quality RTAs helps to improve export product quality, but there are no effect for some industries with laggard or special advanced technology.     

The “fifth world”: Regarding the historical dimension and current relevance of the refugee and migration problem

Abstract

This paper empirically tests whether the host country's financial reform promotes the inflow of foreign direct investment (FDI). We test the hypothesis on the reform period Chinese provincial yearly panel data. The system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation shows that the effect of financial reform on inward FDI to GDP ratios is not statistically significant after controlling for other variables and time and province effects. Consistent with the previous studies, market size and openness to international trade have significant effects on the FDI/GDP ratio in both Least squares dummy variables and system GMM estimations.     

The fallacy of Washington consensus and the role of the Government: interpreting some Chinese contributions to development policy from aspects of Chang’e 4

Students of economics may have heard of that economics, especially the kind of mainstream neoclassical economics taught in most universities on earth today, is an imitation of physical science in some fundamental fashion. However, few economists would imagine that economics can be as effective as physical science, not even in the remote future. China’s Chang’e 4 mission to the far side of the Moon provides a golden opportunity for economists to explore this fascinating possibility from the aspect of astrodynamics.

This article, inspired by thoughts of Justin Yifu Lin and Angang Hu among others regarding China’s economic reform, demonstrates that physics explaining the Three-Body Problem of classical mechanics may as well be understood as guiding principles when dealing with issues in development economics. Several aspects of ‘Washington consensus’ are examined in relation to the concerns raised by Chinese scholars. The study concludes that neoliberal interpretations of modern economics are basically inconsistent with the neoclassical framework outlined in standard economics textbooks.     

Banks and the world’s major banking centers, 2000

We update earlier articles on the determinants of interpenetration of financial centers by banks and analyze the substantial changes that have occurred between 1990 and 2000. First, the number of banks and the number of offices in other centers has fallen by over 20 percent since 1990. Second, aggregate interconnectedness has held steady between 1990 and 2000, though there is an increasing asymmetry. Third, Tokyo has lost rank as a center, while Hong Kong and Singapore have continued to gain importance. Fourth, Frankfurt, rather than gaining importance with the advent of the euro, has apparently lost importance. Lastly, some explicit or implicit agreements between banks from different countries not to compete in each other's markets have continued to wane, though intra-European interpenetration remains relatively low. JEL no. F30, G15, G21     

The other trade war: Quantifying the Korea–Japan trade dispute

In mid-2019 a new trade war between Korea and Japan started heating up, while the U.S.–China trade war held the spotlight. This paper documents the recent Korea–Japan trade dispute and quantifies its economic impacts. We consider a set of non-tariff distortions—Japanese export controls combined with Korean boycotts of Japanese goods. We simulate the impact of these actions using a multi-region general equilibrium model calibrated to the GTAP version 10 accounts and observed trade responses in the Korea Customs Service data. We find a welfare loss of 0.144% ($1.0 billion) for Korea and 0.013% ($346 million) for Japan. Sectoral impacts include a 0.25% reduction in chemical production in Japan. In Korea the reduction in imports from Japan is offset by increases in domestic production and imports from other countries.     

The visible hand: the role of government in China’s long-awaited industrial revolution

China is undergoing its long-awaited industrial revolution. There is no shortage of commentary and opinion on this dramatic period, but few have attempted to provide a coherent, in-depth, political-economic framework that explains the fundamental mechanisms behind China’s rapid industrialization. This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen (2016a). This article reviews the Embryonic Economic Development theory put forth by Wen . It illuminates the critical sequence of developmental stages since the reforms enacted by Deng Xiaoping in 1978: namely, small-scale commercialized agricultural production, proto-industrialization in the countryside, a formal industrial revolution based on mass production of labor-intensive light consumer goods, a sustainable ‘industrial trinity’ boom in energy/motive power/infrastructure, and a second industrial revolution involving the mass production of heavy industrial goods. This developmental sequence follows essentially the same pattern as Great Britain’s Industrial Revolution, despite sharp differences in political and institutional conditions. One of the key conclusions exemplified by China’s economic rise is that the extent of industrialization is limited by the extent of the market. One of the key strategies behind the creation and nurturing of a continually growing market in China is based on this premise: The free market is a public good that is very costly for nations to create and support. Market creation requires a powerful ‘mercantilist’ state and the correct sequence of developmental stages; China has been successfully accomplishing its industrialization through these stages, backed by measured, targeted reforms and direct participation from its central and local governments.