EXPLORING ATTRITION BIAS: THE CASE OF THE KHAYELITSHA PANEL STUDY (2000-2004)

Attrition bias is a problem for users of panel data. Researchers need to know what socio‐economic factors are associated with attrition, and whether this is of relevance for the kind of analysis they want to conduct. This paper discusses attrition bias in the 2000/2004 Khayelitsha panel study. It shows that women, shack‐dwellers and people living in smaller households are more likely to attrit, but that the impact of these variables on the probability of attrition is relatively small. The implications for labour‐market analysis are then explored using Mincerian earnings functions and a probit regression on whether respondents are wage‐employed or not. The coefficients generated using a restricted sample of non‐attritors do not differ significantly from those generated by the entire sample. This suggests that attrition bias in this particular data set is not a problem for this kind of labour market analysis.     

Why did Swedish regional net migration rates fall in the 1970s? The role of policy changes versus structural change, 1945–1985

The relationship between local labour market conditions and regional migration has been widely discussed within research. In Sweden, where interregional migration reached a peak in the 1960s but decreased substantially in the 1970s, the role of economic policy has been especially contended in light of the Swedish model and its official stress on regional mobility. By collecting and creating a new and unique dataset on net-migration, vacancy rates, employment and labour income by county, the pattern of interregional migration in Sweden is analysed over a period of time that also covers the early postwar period (1945–1985), allowing for a detailed evaluation of the drivers of migration at different times. My results suggest that there was no significant change over time in the responsiveness of migration to local labour market conditions. The changing patterns of regional migration were therefore more likely the result of changes in the pace and direction of structural change. I discuss the implications of these results for previous accounts of the Swedish model and of the decline in migration after 1970.     

An Evaluation of the Determinants and Implications of Panel Attrition in the National Income Dynamics Survey (2008‐2010)

Panel surveys offer a valuable tool for researchers to explore the dynamics underlying individual and household behaviours. The Achilles heel of panel data is attrition. This paper examines the determinants and implications of attrition in the first two waves of South Africa's National Income Dynamics Survey. Multivariate tests in labour market and health specifications show that there is some moderate evidence of attrition bias in estimated coefficients based on the non‐attriting sample. This bias can be seen in labour market specifications, in particular for men, and for Africans, and to a much lesser degree in health specifications, in particular for small samples of Whites. Researchers should take care when using the panel data set to generalise to the overall population.     

中外农村剩余劳动力转移的对比研究

随着中国经济的快速发展,经济转型期的到来,农村劳动力的转移对中国经济发展的重要性日益凸显出来。"民工荒"的进一步加剧,"三农"问题的重要性,都迫使我们进一步研究我国农村劳动力转移的新思路。本文拟从中外农村劳动力转移的对比中,试图探索中国农村劳动力转移的新路径。     

Determinants of return migration intentions: Evidence from Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa

This paper uses a dataset of Zimbabwean migrants living in South Africa to examine the determinants of the probability of their returning to their country of origin. It analyses migrants' return migration intentions using a logistic regression that examines 10 demographic and socioeconomic factors. Six factors – reason for migrating, the number of dependants supported in the home country, the level of education, economic activity in the host country, the level of income and the duration of stay in the host country – are found to be statistically significant determinants of the return migration intentions. The main policy implication of these findings is that the chances of attracting back skills are high if political and economic stability can be achieved.     

People＇s Mobility and Guanxi Networks： A Case Study

The increase in the movement of people from rural to urban areas since the mid-1980s represents the largest labor migration ever experienced in China. Because migration is a process of selection, it is imperative that the major dynamics determining the selection are studied. What are the critical characteristics of migrants that help them to realize their mobility from rural areas to urban areas？ While educational attainment, gender, age, marital status and personal skills are important variables in the selection process, the present paper examines how social networks （guanxi connections） play a significant role in the process of migration selection in China. A case study from one of the northern villages in rural China is used to explore how social networks have shaped and given meaning to migration. The present paper elaborates on how people＇s social mobility has coincided with and been reinforced by people＇s physical mobility.     

Temporary Migration and Foreign Direct Investment

The question of complementarity or substitutability of FDI and international labour mobility has not yet been answered. The substitutability assumption does not take into consideration the technological spillover of FDI in the host countries. Moreover, migration flows reveal cultural characteristics and labour force properties of their native country which may stimulate bilateral business networks, strengthening the complementarity assumption between capital and labour flows. In this paper we build a continuous time dynamic model where these offsetting forces are at work. We analyze whether, and to what extent, the increase in labour mobility might affect FDI outflows. A numerical simulation is performed showing that a higher income growth rate corresponds to a higher labour mobility. Some policy implications and further research direction are suggested.     

Migration and HIV/AIDS in South Africa

Although migration and HIV/AIDS have been examined separately in South Africa, researchers are still far from understanding in detail just how and to what extent the two are interconnected. The connections are difficult to unravel because HIV/AIDS arrived in the country at a time when population mobility and systems of labour migration were undergoing rapid transformation. Without a proper understanding of the complexity of the country's new migration regime, it will not be possible to understand either the role of mobility in the spread of the pandemic or the vulnerability to infection of mobile populations. This paper reviews the current state of knowledge on the interconnections between mobility and HIV and argues for more research that will further understanding of migrant vulnerability and the development of appropriate policies and models of intervention and care.     

Migration at the multi-level intersection of industrial relations: the Schleswig-Holstein Campaign and the Swedish garment industry in the early 1950s

This article deals with the so-called Schleswig-Holstein campaign, whereby about 800 – mostly female – young Germans arrived in Sweden in 1950–1951. The campaign was a German initiative, emphasising vocational training for young and unemployed refugees and expellees, even though it ended up in a more pragmatic labour recruitment. Firstly, the article investigates the international relationship between West German and Swedish labour-market authorities, and secondly, it concentrates on industrial relations in the Swedish garment industry. Thirdly, on local level it focuses on the streamlined clothing factory Algots in Borås. Thereby, the article deals with the mutual interplay between migration and industrial relations. It clarifies how industrial relations on different levels of society intersected and reciprocally moulded a framework for the actors involved in the migration process. Contrariwise, the article illuminates how the campaign affected the industrial relations. It also observes to what extent perceptions of gender, age, ethnicity, and class among the actors involved influenced their argumentation and agency.     

European Labour Mobility: Challenges and Potentials

European Union economies are pressed by (i) a demographic change that induces population ageing and a decline of the workforce, and (ii) a split labour market that is characterized by high levels of unemployment for low-skilled people and a simultaneous shortage of skilled workers. This lack of flexible high-skilled workers and the aging process has created the image of an immobile labour force and the eurosklerosis phenomenon. In such a situation, an economically motivated immigration policy at the European level can generate welfare improvements. A selective policy that discourages unskilled migrants and attracts skilled foreign workers will vitalize the labour market, foster growth and increase demand for unskilled native workers. The paper summarizes the available economic insights, and suggests (i) the need to harmonize the single-country migration policies across Europe and (ii) that the European Union needs to become an active player on the international labour markets by providing competitive institutional settings for European companies. The author is President of the German Institute for Economic Research (DIW Berlin), Director of the Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA) in Bonn, Professor of Economics at the University of Bonn, and Honorary Professor at the Free University of Berlin. Revised version of a paper presented at the high-level expert conference ‘Jobs for Europe’ on the Social Policy Agenda for the European Union on October 25–26, 2004 in Amsterdam. The author thanks Aart Jan Bette, Henk Don, Renske Gerstel, Klara Scheepers, Jan van der Velden and other members of the editorial committee of this conference as well as conference participants, two anonymous referees of this journal, and Amelie Constant, Don DeVoretz, Holger Hinte and Stephanie Wei Wang for many useful comments on earlier drafts.     

Wage-Tenure Profiles and Mobility

The Dutch labour market is characterized by low job mobility and high average duration of unemployment for older jobseekers. This study investigates the role of wage-tenure profiles in explaining patterns of job mobility. Based on a large administrative database, the estimates show that wage-tenure profiles in the Netherlands are relatively steep. Furthermore, industries with high returns to tenure appear to have a high share of older workers, as well as high average job tenure. This implies that steep wage-tenure profiles are related to low levels of mobility.     

International labour migration in the Asian-Pacific region: patterns,policies and economic implications

"This paper reviews the literature on international labour migration from and within the Asian-Pacific region. It deals with patterns and characteristics of migration flows, government policies towards labour migration, and economic implications of labour migration for both labour-exporting and importing countries in the region. The indications are that, despite gradual slowing down of labour flows to the western industrial countries and the Middle East, labour migration will continue to be a major economic influence on surplus-labour countries in the region. As an integral part of the growth dynamism in the region, labour migration has now begun to take on a regional dimension, with immense implications for the process of industrial restructuring in high growth economies and the changing pattern of economic interdependence among countries."     

The collection of national household survey data in South Africa (1993-2001): Rendering labour migration invisible

This article explores the coverage of labour migration in four national questionnaires in South Africa - the Project for Statistics on Living Standards and Development (1993), the National Census (1996 and 2001), the October Household Surveys (1995-9) and the Labour Force Survey (2000-1). Internal labour migration has been an integral part of South Africa's history and economic development. Whether this migration is changing, and how this will affect the rural household's access to resources, are surely important questions to be examined both now and in the future. A comprehensive investigation requires not only specific case study analysis, but also analysis of nationally representative data on households and the individuals who are part of these households, whether as resident or absent household members. Official household surveys in South Africa have been modified and revised over the years to improve the quality of information collected on individuals, households and their access to resources. However, questions of labour migration have received little attention in these revisions. Rather, the quality and quantity of information collected on migration and labour migrants specifically have declined such that in current sources of national data, the Labour Force Survey (2000-1) and the Census (2001), labour migrants are all but invisible.     

Seasonal Migration and Networks—Evidence on Moldova’s Labour Exodus

Seasonal migration is an ever more important phenomenon worldwide, but has received little attention in empirical research. This paper investigates the choice of seasonal versus longer-term migration on a household level. We use data from Moldova, a country that is witnessing a massive emigration shock. Surprisingly, neither children nor marital status appear to influence the decision to leave seasonally or for longer periods. This suggests high social and emotional costs of emigration. We also find that existing local networks of seasonal migrants are unrelated to permanent migration choice. Generally, networks appear to have a stronger influence on migration probabilities in urban settings. JEL no. F22, J61, O15     

The effects of European integration and the business cycle on migration flows: a gravity analysis

This paper explores how European integration, economic fluctuations, and the interactions of these factors affect bilateral migration flows. It focuses on how migration flows developed in the wake of the establishment of the European Monetary Union, and whether migration flows became stronger, and more responsive to economic fluctuations, in the euro area. It estimates a gravity equation of bilateral gross migration flows on a global sample and on a sample restricted to the first 12 members of the euro area. It is found that unemployment is a strong and robust determinant of bilateral migration flows both globally and in the euro area. EU accession and the lifting of labour market restrictions on new member states had a large effect on gross migration flows. While mutual euro area membership is not associated with an overall rise in migration, it is associated with increased flows from countries where unemployment is high to those where it is lower. Migration flows among the euro-area 12 have been on an increasing trend since the late 1990s; after falls in 2009 they picked up again in 2010 and 2011. The evidence overall suggests that labour mobility plays an increasing role in the adjustment to asymmetric shocks in the EU and the euro area.     

International Labour Migration in East Asia: trends, patterns and policy issues

This paper examines emerging patterns of labour migration in East Asia and related policy issues from the perspective of labour-importing countries. Following a survey of the characteristics of labour flows stemming from, but more importantly occurring within, the region, it probes inter-country differences, both in the timing of the entry of migrant workers and the degree of dependency on migrant labour in the context of rapid economic growth and labour market change. There is clear evidence that labour migration is now a structural feature of the economic landscape in these countries. The policy challenge is to design market-based systems for making the new reliance on labour inflows consistent with changing domestic labour market conditions and the priorities of national development policy, while minimising social resentment and adverse implications for political relations with neighbouring labour-sending countries.     

Trading places. Case studies of the labour market experience of women in rural in-migrant households

This paper reports on some of the findings of a recent study on the employment impact of moving to a rural area. A case study approach is used to elucidate the choices/constraints/compromises encountered by women in in-migrant households to rural and semi-rural parts of the East Midlands, Great Britain. Rural labour markets are quantitatively and qualitatively different from urban labour markets and, while some of the surveyed in-migrant women managed to find jobs following their move, they often experienced downward occupational mobility; others withdrew from the labour market. A number of policy recommendations are also made to improve labour market access.     

Fathers' whereabouts and children's welfare in Malawi

Children's welfare may be affected by the absence of a parent – be it due to migration, divorce or death. These reasons for absence have largely been addressed separately in the literature; we present a unified framework. Using Demographic and Health Survey data from Malawi, we compare welfare indicators for four categories of children: those who live with both parents, and those who live with their mother but whose father is absent due to migration, divorce, or death. We find a clear pattern of welfare differences: children whose father is either present or a migrant are better off, and children whose father is deceased or whose parents are divorced are worse off. Our findings indicate that concern about the welfare of migrants' children might be exaggerated. By contrast, vulnerable children of divorcees are at risk of being overlooked in a policy environment that focuses on orphans.     

Gravity Models of Interregional Migration in Indonesia

This article explores the determinants of interregional migration in Indonesia. Employing basic and modified (extended) gravity models, and using data from the 2000 and 2010 Population Censuses and the 2005 Intercensal Population Survey, we test Long’s (1985) hypothesis that in the early stages of population redistribution, economic development is positively related to a concentration of the population. Using per-capita GDP as a proxy for income and as an indicator of economic development, we find that migration in Indonesia is indeed directed towards more developed regions. This finding supports the notion that regional disparities in development are an important factor in interregional migration in Indonesia. In line with classical gravity models, our findings show that distance is negatively related to the size of migration flows. However, unlike previous studies of interprovincial migration in Indonesia, we find that the effect of distance has weakened over time.