On dollarization

The paper examines the case for dollarization in emerging market economies. It is claimed that dollarization becomes an attractive monetary regime when account is taken of recent financial turmoil in such economies. The case is further strengthened by the fact that these economies have a penchant for acquiring dollar debts (i.e., liability dollarization). However, exchange rate misalignment and deflation are potentially serious problems, unless appropriate fiscal and public sector prices policies are implemented, in addition to establishing a financial sector whose assets and liabilities face parallel relative price risks. JEL classification: F31, F41     

Subordinated Financial Integration and Financialisation in Emerging Capitalist Economies: The Brazilian Experience

This paper analyses the recent changes in financial practices and relations in emerging capitalist economies (ECEs) using the example of Brazil. It argues that in ECEs these financial transformations, akin to the financialisation phenomena observed in Core Capitalist Economies (CCEs), are fundamentally shaped by their subordinated integration into a financialised and structured world economy. To analyse this subordinated financialisation, the paper draws on the framework of international currency hierarchies. It shows by means of two specific processes how the existence of a hierarchic international monetary system has changed the financial behaviour of domestic economic agents, and with it the structure of the financial system. The first process highlights the phenomenon of reserve accumulation and the changing behaviour of domestic banks. The second points to ECEs’ sustained external vulnerability and its impact on the operations of Brazilian non-financial corporations. The paper also shows that not only were these financial transformations shaped by ECEs’ subordinated financial integration, but also that it was these financialisation tendencies themselves which contributed to cementing existing hierarchies and further deepened existing asymmetries between ECEs and CCEs.     

Financial integration and exchange rate determination: a Brazilian case study

This paper investigates the impact on exchange rate determination of two recent changes in developing and emerging countries’ financial integration: first, the rising volume and heterogeneity of short-term portfolio flows; second, foreign investors’ increased exposure to domestic rather than foreign currency assets. In its analysis of Brazil, the paper shows that both changes have potentially destabilizing implications for the exchange rate and may create the risk of self-feeding bubble dynamics leading to large and sudden swings in exchange rates. The results have important implications for the regulation of international capital movements and choice of exchange rate regime.     

技术范式转换、新兴产业演化与金融资本角色转变：国际经验与我国政策选择

经济长波中每一次的技术革命都会带来范式的转换,新兴产业也将随之出现,进入动态的演化过程。新旧范式转换中出现的经济短期失衡将导致金融泡沫出现,金融资本的角色将由前期的资金服务者转向生产的主导者,并在经历金融危机和经济调整后,又回归到其服务者的身份。促进金融资本与战略性新兴产业的协调发展,不仅要构建动态金融支持体系、强化政策对金融资本的引导作用,还要在经济失衡期重拾发展信心且避免过度的刺激政策,努力促进主导设计的成熟与市场需求的培育。     

战略性新兴产业上市公司金融支持效率及其影响因素研究

培育战略性新兴产业是当前我国促进经济结构转变,顺应世界经济发展趋势的必然选择。本文运用DEA方法测度战略性新兴产业金融支持效率,以此为基础构建金融支持效率影响因素模型。实证研究表明,市场性金融支持行为在经济波动期存在效率缺失;金融支持效率的实现伴随风险的增高;在间接融资驱动力不足情况下,直接融资成为战略性新兴产业发展的主要支撑。分析结果认为,提高战略性新兴产业金融支持效率需要充分发挥政策金融的引导作用,突出银行的支持功能,推进金融服务多元化,提高产业的风险抵御能力。     

Financial Globalization,Financial Crises,and the External Portfolio Structure of Emerging Markets*

We study the transitional dynamics of financial integration in emerging economies using a two‐sector model with a collateral constraint on external debt and trading costs incurred by foreign investors. The probability of a financial crisis displays overshooting; it rises sharply initially and then falls sharply, but remains non‐zero in the long run. While equity holdings fall permanently, bond holdings initially fall, but rise after the probability of a crisis peaks. Conversely, asset returns and asset prices first rise and then fall. These results are in line with the post‐globalization dynamics observed in emerging markets, and the higher frequency of crises that they display.     

稳健财政政策下国债的适度规模与管理

2005年起,我国开始实行稳健的财政政策,经济运行方式发生了变化,国债政策作为以前积极财政政策调节经济方向的重要工具也应采取相应变化以促进经济向前发展.由此加强我国国债规模管理,不仅应从总体上缩小国债规模,更应该注重国债资金的使用效率,对其加强监督管理.     

Monetary policy, macroeconomic adjustment and currency speculation under floating exchange rates: the case of Bulgaria

This paper deals with the Bulgarian experience with exchange rate policy and the related macroeconomic adjustment in the transition period. It is argued that in the context of the Bulgarian macroeconomic environment, the exchange rate regime and the exchange rate policy (or the lack of such) did play a crucial role in determining the patterns of macroeconomic adjustment in this period. A simple general equilibrium model is suggested that provides some insights into the stylized performance of an economy under certain assumptions, similar to those characterizing the transitional state of the Bulgarian economy. Finally, some aspects of Bulgarian macroeconomic performance in recent years are analysed on the basis of the available empirical information and using the framework of the theoretical model. The paper concludes with the policy lessons of this experience.     

资源金融炒作与次债CDO精巧设计:为国际金融资本挖掘了坟墓

由美国"次贷危机"诱发的"金融海啸"的本质是资源金融炒作与次债CDO精巧设计"碰撞"的结果,是国际金融资本因贪婪给自己挖掘的坟墓。由此,我国应高度重视资本大规模流动的监测和对策研究,加强国际合作来限制资源金融的炒作,注重金融创新风险濡染机制的研究,完善对金融创新的有效监管。     

金融稳定性与经济增长的机制分析——基于新兴市场国家和发达国家的两组数据

文章通过比较新兴市场国家和发达国家1994-2008年间金融稳定性对经济增长的作用机制发现,对于新兴市场国家而言,外债占GNP的比重和国际储备与外债比例的上升不利于金融稳定状态的保持,导致经济增长率下降,但总储蓄占GDP比例的上升和贸易额占GDP比重的提高会促进金融稳定,带动经济增长;而对于发达国家而言,海外证券投资与债券投资的增加以及实际利率的上升会维护金融稳定性,促进经济增长。由于一国金融稳定还受国际宏观因素的影响,因此国际金融体系的重建是保证各成员国金融稳定的重要内容。     

The new exchange rate policy in the Asian emerging economies – goodbye trouble,hello comfort?

In this paper, we discuss new aspects of exchange rate policy that can be observed in the Asian emerging economies. In the first place, we show the alternative regimes they may choose and their respective pros and cons. Secondly, we concentrate on the recent strategy of systematic undervaluation of one's currency – figuring prominently among ‘big’ Asian players such as China and India – and the most likely implications of such a strategy for domestic allocation, distribution and stabilization goals. With the background of Germany's experiences in 1969, almost on the eve of the Bretton Woods' system collapse, we model a speculative attack on an undervalued currency in the vein of the Flood–Garber seminal paper from 1984. Now, however, the country in concern (just like India and China) possesses strong rather than weak fundamentals. The continuous accumulation of international reserves, in addition, leads to the question of an ‘optimal management’ of foreign exchange reserves in Asian emerging economies with regard to size and composition. We finally propose a sequence of reforms/policies that should be implemented in those Asian emerging economies on their still long journey to a regime featured by autonomous monetary policy, flexible exchange rate and capital mobility. A brief summary and an outlook for future research close the paper.     

国际金融体系的构造缺陷与亚洲金融危机的内在联系

近年来国际金融危机频发,这些危机的原因除了发生危机的国家的内在因素之外,更主要的还与其外在的整个国际货币金融体系存在着的巨大构造性缺陷息息相关。     

Manias,Panics and Crashes in Emerging Markets: An Empirical Investigation of the Post-2008 Crisis Period

ABSTRACT

Because of their economic importance, international bond markets are thought to be the likely location for the operation of financial market pressures on emerging market (EM) government policy. An important but unresolved debate that runs through the literature is the relative importance of domestic factors specific to the country receiving the capital flows (pull factors), versus push factors exogenous to the receiving country, in driving portfolio flows to EMs. Through extensive interviews with financial market participants, and analysis of the financial press between January 2008 and 2013, this paper argues that not only were market participants fully aware of the importance of push factors over the cycle, but that their perceptions of the domestic fundamentals themselves were influenced by these push factors. The paper provides evidence on the micro-foundations of investment decision making that make investors susceptible to influence by the push factors, and adds to a growing body of evidence that financial market borrowing costs are even less in the control of emerging market governments than previously assumed, because even when investors pay attention to domestic fundamentals, their assessments can be divorced from reality. This means that government efforts to attract foreign capital through implementing investors' preferred policies may be ultimately futile.     

新兴经济体国家城镇化发展对碳排放影响的比较研究

新兴经济体十六国是重要的发展集团,由“金砖五国”和“新钻十一国”组成,高效低碳的城镇化是其进一步提升在全球经济发展中增量贡献的动力保障。借助EKC模型和STIRPAT模型,分别研究这两个国家集团城镇化发展与碳排放量之间的关系以及城镇化对碳排放的影响。研究结果表明：在二者的关系方面,新兴经济体国家的城镇化水平与碳排放量呈现出微弱的倒“U”型关系,其中,“金砖五国”已经跨过倒“U”型曲线的拐点,而“新钻十一国”则处于拐点前期;在城镇化对碳排放的影响方面,城镇化发展对“新钻十一国”碳排放量的影响大于“金砖五国”;城镇化水平越高的国家,碳排放量越大,但随着工业化水平的提升和产业结构的优化升级,碳排放量逐步降低。     

CHH际资本流入的贸易增长效应分析

以汇率和经济增长作为国际短期资本影响国际贸易的中间变量,采用Eviews6．0,从总体上考察国际资本流入对我国进出口的影响。从模型得出,随着FDI的增加,我国的出口额会增加,进口额会减少,而短期内FDI的增加对我国的进出口都起着促进作用;人民币实际有效汇率的贬值无论在长期和短期都对出口起着促进作用,对进口起着抑制作用。因此,在国际资本大量流入的情况下,只有积极吸引FDI,有效防范短期资本大幅度波动,才能保持贸易收支的相对稳定。     

高校规模经济下财务风险控制初探

随着高等教育由精英化到普及化,这种规模经济带来的扩张态势,使高校财务风险日益显现。怎样识别、规避、防范以至排除风险是高校财务工作的重心。文章结合高校工作的实际情况,在分析高校财务风险现实表现上,有针对性的提出控制措施,旨在通过这种控制措施来保障高校财务工作的顺利进行,以期达到良性循环的效果。     

Risk Appetite,Home Bias and the Unstable Demand for Emerging Market Assets

Home bias arises when the actual portfolio of an investor consists of a smaller proportion of foreign assets than that predicted by standard portfolio theory for the observed set of risks and returns on available assets. The existence and persistence of home bias undermines the theoretical case for the efficiency of international capital markets. In this paper we use data on UK pension fund portfolios to measure home bias, and find that this is doubly acute in the case of emerging market equity—a bias against overseas assets as a whole being further magnified by a bias against emerging markets within the foreign equity class as a whole. Moreover, contrary to the conventional assumption that risk aversion is both relatively low and stable over time (canonised in neoclassical theory by the derivation of constant relative risk aversion from the utility function itself) our finding that home bias fluctuates over time suggests that risk aversion is in fact time‐variant and path‐dependent. We sketch an alternative Keynesian approach in conclusion.     

The Effects of Foreign Currency Derivatives on the Monetary Policy Exchange Rate Channel in China

This paper examines changes in the monetary policy exchange rate channel in the presence of foreign currency derivatives (FCD) markets in China. Initially a theoretical macroeconomics model incorporating the exchange rate risk hedging is presented, and this is followed by an empirical test. A theoretical model implies that with more firms using foreign currency derivatives to hedge the exchange rate risk, the effect of the exchange rate on the net exports will be weaker and may even be reversed. The empirical section uses Structure Vector Autoregression (SVAR) models with China's monthly macro data over the 2000–2013 period to assess the impact of the FCD market on the exchange rate channel. Empirical support for the changes in the exchange rate channel transmission is found. By impulse response function (IRF) analysis, with the emergence of the domestic FCD market in China, in the long run the probability becomes higher that the negative effect of RMB appreciation on China's net exports to the US is reversed; meanwhile the negative effects of RMB appreciation on the overall net exports and the net exports to the EU become gradually weaker on average.     

新国际资本流动趋势下中国利用外资再分析

随着经济全球化、金融国际化和经济金融化的加速发展,国际资本流动在规模、速度和形式三个维度上都在不断的变化。国际资本流动的长足进展为中国的经济发展创造更为优越的外部引资条件的同时,也给中国的金融稳定、长期的经济发展和未来的利用外资策略带来的严峻的挑战。     

The 2014–15 Financial Crisis in Russia and the Foundations of Weak Monetary Power Autonomy in the International Political Economy

ABSTRACT

This article contributes to international political economy debates about the monetary power autonomy (MPA) of emerging market and developing countries (EMDs). The 2014–15 Russian financial crisis is used as a case study to explore why an accumulation of large international reserves does not provide protection against currency crises and macroeconomic adjustments in EMDs. The analysis centres on the interplay between two dimensions of MPA: the Power to Delay and the Power to Deflect adjustment costs. Two structural factors condition Russia’s low MPA. First, the country’s subordinated integration in global financial markets increases its financial vulnerability. The composition of external assets and liabilities, combined with cross-border capital flows, restrict the use of international reserves to delay currency crises. Second, the choice of a particular macroeconomic policy regime embraced the financialisation of the – mainly state-owned – Russian banking sector, thus making it difficult to transform liquidity inflows into credits for enterprises. Russia’s main comparative advantage, hydrocarbon export revenues, is not exploited. The type of economy created due to the post-Communist transition means that provided ‘excessive’ liquidity remains in the financial system and is channelled into currency arbitrage. This factor increases exchange rate vulnerability and undermines Russia’s MPA.