Covered interest parity: The untestable hypothesis

Although post Keynesian economists advocate the realistic bankers’ view of the forward exchange rate, neoclassical economists formulate (CIP) as a testable hypothesis. In reality, CIP represents a formula used by bankers to calculate the forward rates they quote to their customers. This article provides arguments for the post Keynesian view of the forward exchange rate and suggests that CIP is not a theory, that it is a microeconomic relation, and that it is a hedging rather than an arbitrage condition. An empirical illustration shows that deviations from CIP are observed whenever published data are used, but these deviations disappear when transaction data are used instead. It is concluded that CIP is an untestable hypothesis.     

Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.     

Monetary and banking policy transmission through interest rates: an empirical application to the USA,Canada, the UK and the Eurozone

The main purpose of this paper is an examination of the pass‐through interest rate transmission from the wholesale rates (central bank and/or money market rates) to the retail rates (deposit and lending rates) of the banking system. Knowledge of the transmission substantially helps us to calculate the pass‐through interest rate margin or mark‐up in the banking systems under examination (USA, Canada, the UK and the Eurozone). The selection of the wholesale interest rate is also an important part of this pass‐through transmission framework because it is related to the money supply process and therefore the central bank's policy capabilities. In the empirical part, a Johansen (1988) cointegration based error‐correction procedure (ECM‐GE) is implemented for the wholesale interest rate selection. Then an LSE–Hendry general‐to‐specific model (GETS) is applied, for the revelation of the banking sector pass‐through interest rate behaviour. In the empirical part, on the issue of the wholesale interest rate selection, the USA and the Eurozone seem to favour the Money Market rate while the UK and Canada favour the central bank policy rate. The results indicate two types of interest rate pass‐through behaviour, with market structure implication – namely, the US and UK banking systems contrasted with Canada–Eurozone.     

The coordination of regional interest in developing river basin

1. IntroductionRiver basin is a typical natural region andcatchments of rivers or water systems, which takes ariver as its central line and is surrounded by dividingwater line, and it is an independent, self-systemic hy-drology unit from source to mouth of river with spe-cific scope in region. River basin is a special kind ofregion, in which all-natural factors have close relationwith each other and there is remarkable influence be-tween inter-regions, especially between upper andlower reaches…     

The puzzling dual of the uncovered interest parity puzzle evidence from Pacific Rim capital flows

International financial arbitrage should prevent the existence of non-zero expected returns when borrowing in one currency and lending in another implying that interest differentials should predict exchange rate movements. The failure of interest differentials to act as an unbiased predictor of future exchange rate movements is referred to as the uncovered interest parity puzzle. This paper explores whether capital flows respond to these interest differentials in the context of a model in which dynamic adjustment costs keep capital from flowing immediately across borders. The paper finds little or even a negative relationship between expected excess returns on exchange rate adjusted U.S. money market rates (relative to domestic interest rates) and capital flows to the U.S. from Australia, Canada, Japan or Korea.     

我国利率市场化改革的难点及对策分析

利率市场化是金融市场实现资源合理配置的重要内容，是加强金融间接调控的关键，对于推进建立现代企业制度及改革其他相关制度，优化资金配置、调整国民经济结构都具有极其重要的作用。近些年来，我国的利率市场化水平有了很大的提高，利率机制时市场的导向作用也在不断加大。结合利率市场化改革的进程，深入细致地分析并制定出行之有效的应对之策，对于我国利率市场化改革的进一步深化无疑具有积极的推动作用。     

The natural rate of interest and the output gap in the euro area: a joint estimation

The notion of a natural real rate of interest, due to Wicksell (Interest and prices. Macmillan, London Translation of 1898 edition, 1936), is widely used in current central bank research. The idea is that there exists a level at which the real interest rate would be compatible with output at its potential level and stationary inflation. Such a concept is of primary concern for monetary policy because it provides a benchmark for the monetary policy stance. This paper applies the method suggested by Laubach and Williams (Rev Econ Stat 85(4):1063–1070, 2003) to jointly estimate the natural real interest rate and the output gap in the euro area using data from 1960 onwards. Our results suggest that the natural real rate of interest has declined gradually over the past 40 years. They also indicate that monetary policy in the euro area was on average stimulative during the 1960s and the 1970s, while it contributed to dampen the output gap and inflation in the 1980s and 1990s. The views expressed in this paper are those of the authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions of the institutions to which they are affiliated. We are grateful to Siem Jan Koopman for very helpful suggestions and comments. We also thank P. Cour-Thimann, V. Curdia, F. Drudi, S. McCaw, D. Rodriguez-Palenzuela, R. Pilegaard, H. Pill, L. Stracca, T. Laubach, J. C. Williams and the participants of an ECB workshop on natural interest rates.     

The intertemporal substitution effect of government purchases on the interest rate: Empirical estimates for the Netherlands

In an intertemporal equilibrium setting, temporary government purchases may affect the real interest rate. A temporary change in the level of government spending does not affect the optimal intertemporal allocation of rational consumers, who will therefore try to maintain their consumption plans. Assuming no change in the supply of goods, there is an excess demand for goods and in a closed economy the real interest rate has to rise to maintain equilibrium at the goods market. In this paper it is examined whether predictions of intertemporal substitution models hold up to the experience of the Netherlands. We extend Barro's empirical work in three ways. First, we construct a new measure of temporary government outlays. Second, we take the time series behaviour of the data concerned into account and employ a less restrictive specification for the equation to be estimated. Third, we examine the intertemporal substitution effect of government purchases onreal interest rates. Our results provide only mixed support for the hypothesis that temporary government purchases raise real interest rates. It turns out that only temporary military outlays affect the nominal and real interest rate.     

Nonparametric estimation of convergence of interest rates: Effects on bond pricing

We present and estimate a model of short term interest rate dynamics where we incorporate the convergent behavior of interest rates implied by the transition to EMU. We apply this model to data of two EMU countries - Spain and Italy - and compare the performance, in terms of accuracy of bond pricing, of this two-factor convergence model with alternative specifications. Nonparametric techniques are used for the estimation of the processes. The two-factor model which accounts for the convergence with Europe of the domestic economies, obtains better results, especially for short-term assets, than alternative models. The results of the nonparametric specifications are shown to be significantly better than those of parametric alternatives.JEL Classification: E43, C14We would like to thank Adrian Pagan and Eduardo Schwartz for their invaluable feedback, encouragement and patience. We also would like to thank the editor, two anonymous referees and participants at the Symposium of Economic Analysis (Barcelona, December 1999), the Australasian Meeting of the Econometric Society (Sydney, July 1999), the 2000 European Meeting of the Financial Management Association (Edinburgh, July 2000) and seminars at the Australian National University, Canberra, and at the University of New South Wales, Sydney, for their comments and suggestions. All errors remain our sole responsibility. Financial assistance from the Fundación Ramó n Areces, Madrid, Spain, and the Asociación de Amigos de la Universidad de Navarra, Pamplona, Spain, is gratefully acknowledged.     

Instability tests in cointegration relationships. An application to the term structure of interest rates

This paper tries to review, from a practitioner's point of view, the recent strand of literature on cointegration tests allowing for structural changes or parameter instability. Thus, we apply several tests using as an example the expectations model of the term structure of interest rates. The results are consistent with the existence of cointegration between the long and the short run Spanish interest rates, with a vector (1,−1), as predicted by the theory. However, there is also evidence of structural instability, mainly at the beginning of 1994, that can be attributed to the financial changes that occurred in Spain as a result of its external commitments in the process of the European Monetary Union.     

基于利率市场化的商业银行风险控制对策探讨

利率市场化是市场经济发展的必然要求,是我国利率管理体制改革的既定目标。在当前利率市场化的思路和进程逐渐明晰的前提下,应积极创造条件以推进利率市场化改革的进程,防范和化解利率市场化进程中隐藏的各种风险。根椐中国的实际情况及国外成功经验,提出我国在利率市场化改革进程中商业银行风险控制管理的对策。     

Assessment of China's macroeconomic situation: relevance of the zero interest rate and quantitative easing polices

Using the data available until mid-February, 2009, the article examines China's macroeconomic situation and looks at the prospect of China's economy. It analyzes the zero interest rate and quantitative easing policies in terms of relevant empirical evidences in Japan and the prospect of using this kind of policy in the US. It argues that a zero interest rate and quantitative easing policies are not optimal choices for China.     

管制经济学的演进——从传统理论到比较制度分析

文章梳理了管制经济学从传统理论到比较制度分析的演进逻辑,并指出传统的管制理论采取的是把市场和政府对立起来的二分分析方法,而新的管制理论则采取了一种把市场和政府统一起来的分析方法,这种理论进展有助于我们更加深刻地认识现实世界中的管制制度。     

政府经济职能:市场机制的补充者

转变政府职能是现阶段经济改革的一项主要任务,关系整个改革进程,因此,我们亟需寻求政府职能的恰当定位。政府经济职能不能定位于市场的替代者,而应定位于市场机制的补充者。把政府经济职能定位于市场机制的补充者是政府职能的真正回归。     

利益集团理论与国有企业制度变迁--国有企业承包制-股份制案例研究

该文利用利益集团理论对承包制-股份制这一制度变迁过程进行了分析,具体考察了这一过程中各利益集团关于新制度的预期效用,以及由此它们对这一制度变迁所施加的影响,从而揭示这一制度变迁过程产生的根本原因:在1992年之前,承包制是各利益集团一致的选择.1992-1996年地方政府和国有企业偏好于股份制,而中央政府从最大化其风险规避的预期效用的角度出发,并不偏好股份制.但因为地方政府和国有企业组成了利益集团联盟,中央政府在信息与权力、财力上都处于劣势,所以最终股份制取代了承包制,成为国有企业改革的方向.     

The dynamics of entrepreneurship: hysteresis, business cycles and government policy

This article estimates two unobserved components models to explore the macrodynamics of entrepreneurship in Spain and the USA. We ask whether entrepreneurship exhibits hysteresis, defined as a macrodynamic structure in which the cyclical component of entrepreneurship has persistent effects on the natural rate of entrepreneurship. We find evidence of hysteresis in Spain, but not the USA, while in Spain business cycle output variations significantly affect future rates of entrepreneurship. The article discusses implications of the findings for the design of entrepreneurship policies.     

我国汇率与存款利率的关系研究：2000.1-2007.8

本文通过对2000年1月到2007年8月期间的人民币汇率与利率的关系进行了格兰杰因果检验,并采用单位根检验,建立VAR模型,通过脉冲响应函数和方差分解分析了二者的关系。结果表明,汇率变动影响着居民储蓄存款利率的变化较为显著,而居民储蓄存款利率影响汇率变动的力度较弱。我国存在着阻碍汇率利率联动的制度、经济等因素。     

“物价闯关”带给利率市场化的启示：原则、基础与方法

利率市场化是中国金融改革攻坚克难的重要领地,也是政界学界热切关注的焦点所在。目前,从国外实践案例汲取改革经验的文献不可胜数,但从国内历史角度寻求改革规律的研究较少。拟从后一思路出发,梳理中国20世纪八九十年代经历的商品价格市场化改革,并将之与正在进行的利率市场化比较研究。归纳总结了以渐进式改革为原则,以培育市场化的经济主体为基础,以契合政治经济形势、惩治腐败、加强试点、敢于反复为方法的改革经验,为利率市场化的后续推进和经济体制改革的持续深化建言献策。