Narrating Crisis,Constructing Policy: Economic Ideas and Institutional Change in Syria

During crises, ideas play a decisive role in shaping radical paradigm shifts in economic governance. However, not all crises immediately produce such ‘great transformations’. Why do some ideas result in incremental rather than abrupt change after crisis? To identify mechanisms potentially explaining this variation, I conduct an exploratory process tracing of an understudied case of incremental institutional change: post-independence Syria. Competing political actors in Syria converged on identical policy responses to crisis despite their very different interpretations of its causes. Although power oscillated between these increasingly bitter rivals in the early 1950s, their ideational consensus on economic issues nevertheless led to a decade of steady institutional change that transformed previously fragile government institutions into powerful vehicles of statism. I derive from this analysis the potential causal significance of two new variables – crisis narrative and crisis response – and hypothesise that their configuration can explain variation in post-crisis patterns of institutional change. Ideas can explain not only the new direction of economic governance after crisis, but also the speed and scale of its movement.     

What made Economists so Politically Influential? Governance-related Ideas and Institutional Entrepreneurship in the Economic Liberalisation of Israel and beyond

Liberal economists are known to be one of the driving forces behind economic liberalisation in various countries, but how did they become so politically influential? Constructivists generally suggest that during economic crises liberal economists persuaded decision-makers to adopt pro-market policy ideas as solutions for economic turbulence. While this answer is true, it is also only partial because it disregards the role played by governance-related ideas and institutional entrepreneurship in the political actions of liberal economists. I argue that ideas regarding decision-making mechanisms provided liberal economists with the basis for creatively exploiting pre-liberalisation institutions, such as central banks and central budget offices, through which these economists enhanced their long-term political influence. An in-depth examination of a paradigmatic case of economic liberalisation driven by liberal economists – Israel's Stabilisation Plan – exemplifies that argument. The existence of like-minded economists and similar pre-liberalisation policy-making institutions in many other countries hints that the Israeli experience is not unique.     

Conditions For Successful Technology Policy In Developing Countries—Learning Rents,State Structures,And Institutions

The paper develops an analysis of the economic, political, and institutional conditions for successful design and implementation of technology policy in developing countries. After a brief introduction (Section I), we discuss contending economic theories of technological change and technology policy (Section 2). It is concluded that, despite many pro-market arguments, market imperfections inherent in the process of technological change make the creation of learning and innovation rents by the state potentially very beneficial, especially in developing countries. The next section (Section 3) analyses the political and institutional factors that determine how effectively such rents can be created and managed. After an assessment of technology policy record in developing countries (Section 4) we discuss how the scope of such policy is affected by the recent changes in domestic and international policy contexts such as domestic deregulation and the emergence of a ‘liberal’ world order represented by the WTO (Section 5). The paper ends with a brief conclusion (Section 6).     

Fifty years of fiscal planning and implementation in the Netherlands

Using real-time data from the annual budgets over the period 1958–2009, we explore budgetary planning and implementation in the Netherlands. Three fiscal policy regimes are distinguished. Our key findings are the following. First, plans are on average unbiased, although they are overoptimistic during earlier parts of our sample and overly pessimistic during the later parts of our sample, when revenues are under-projected. Second, general economic conditions and the state of the public finances are important determinants of both plans and their implementation. Third, this is also the case for political and institutional factors. Expenditure overruns are partly related to political factors, whereas cautious revenue forecasts relate to the institutional setting. Fourth, under the most recent regime of “trend-based budgeting” implementation was strongest relative to planning. In fact, this regime may contain some elements that are useful for designing national fiscal arrangements elsewhere.     

International flows of people and institutional change

International travel clearly increases human interaction over space and exposes societies to foreign influences, foreign ideas, and foreign institutions. Does international travel promote institutional change in a traveler's home country? This paper uses panel data from 149 countries to test the hypothesis of institutional change stemming from international travel. We generally find that foreign travel does not affect political institutions. In one sub-sample, we find limited evidence that international travel can be a determinant of institutional quality in the home country depending upon whether the home country is an autocracy or democracy.     

Economic and legal institutionalism: What can they learn from each other?

The main argument of this paper is that both constitutional political economy and institutional legal theory can benefit from adopting certain central notions from each other. On the one hand, the legal notion of validity can help to clarify certain obscurities concerning the mode of existence of institutions in constitutional political economy. On the other hand, the economic notion of voluntary choice can serve as a point of departure for institutional legal theory in developing substantive criteria for the evaluation of legal systems without appealing to natural law ideas. The author wishes to thank Bob Lieshout and Bernard Steunenberg for their comments.     

论周期中资本边际效率的演进、扭曲与崩溃——关于美国“次贷危机”的政治经济学解读

文章通过凯恩斯的资本边际效率(MEC)理论探讨了经济危机发生的条件、可能区域以及演进的机理,并对次贷危机进行了实证考察.文章认为,次贷危机是在美国政治周期推动下,制度结构和社会条件变迁改变危机进程所造成的危机叠加.在此基础上,文章对流动性过剩说、经济结构失衡说、负债消费模式说、国际金融体系说、新自由主义制度说等观点进行了辨析.     

Alienation and the Soviet Economy,toward a General Theory of Marxian Alienation,Organizational Principles,and the Soviet Economy

The work of the French economist François Perroux has not given rise to a strong consensus in the academic world of economists. Thus, to appreciate the scope of Perrouxian thought, it is necessary to defuse the intellectual debate by exploring the ideas that are part of the current institutional issues. I seek to demonstrate the theoretical interest of the conceptualizations proposed by Perroux in terms of power analysis to understand the political, human, and social dimensions of the institutions of capitalism. In this view, I endeavor to shed light on the Perrouxian institutional legacy regarding the social cooperation/resistance issue, the institutional structure of production, firm theory, agonism theory, economic pluralism, and modern formalization techniques.     

IMPACT OF JOINING THE WTO ON CHINA's ECONOMIC, LEGAL AND POLITICAL INSTITUTIONS

Abstract.  This essay applies a historical–institutional approach to assess the impact of WTO membership on China's economic, legal and political institutions. In each case historical and institutional trends are described, and the effects of WTO membership on these trends are examined. The topics include changes in economic structure and the rate of growth of GDP, formal legal institutions and the legal behavior of the Chinese people, and the forces contributing to the development of democratic political institutions in China.     

Water markets and freshwater ecosystem services: Policy reform and implementation in the Columbia and Murray-Darling Basins

Water markets have featured prominently in the reallocation of water rights to restore freshwater ecosystem health. Incentive-based water rights acquisition and transactions have emerged as a market-oriented policy approach to reallocate water resources from existing uses to enhance the provision, regulation, and sustainability of freshwater ecosystem services. This paper develops a conceptual framework to examine factors enabling and constraining successful policy reform and implementation in market-based environmental water allocation. This analysis distills and extends the findings and lessons of a September 2007 workshop in Brisbane, Australia on environmental water transactions. Two case studies were selected in water stressed basins - the Columbia (U.S.A) and Murray-Darling (Australia) Basins - where transactional approaches to environmental water allocation first emerged. The case studies draw upon practitioner perspectives and previous policy and economic analysis in two regions where shared political economic and physical conditions lend a strong analytical basis for comparison. A common set of policy and regulatory reforms has occurred in both cases - albeit in different forms and via distinct paths - to develop three enabling conditions: (1) establishment of rights to and limits on freshwater extraction and alteration; (2) recognition of the environment as a legitimate water use; and (3) authority to transfer existing water rights to an environmental purpose. However, these elements of policy reform are necessary but not sufficient for effective implementation; a second set of driving forces, barriers, and adaptations explains the ability to achieve larger scale ecological outcomes. These conditions include the physical, social and economic factors driving demand for environmental water allocation; administrative procedures, organizational development and institutional capacity to effect transfers; and adaptive mechanisms to overcome legal, cultural, economic, and environmental barriers. The case study analysis suggests that environmental water transactions can play an important role in establishing environmental water allocations, although water markets require ongoing institutional capacity and adaptive governance. The conceptual framework and empirical lessons generated through this cross-case comparison provide the basis for an expanded research agenda to evaluate the design and performance of market-oriented reforms as implementation experience accrues and new programs emerge in diverse ecological and political economic settings.     

Why China's approach to institutional change has begun to succeed

In the constantly changing modern economic environment, a country's ability to implement institutional reforms is crucial to maintain economic growth and to promote the welfare of its citizens. Unfortunately, it can be difficult to persuade institutional stakeholders that the change is necessary, and as a result, efforts at institutional change often fail. To avoid situations in which change is sudden and disruptive, China has chosen a more cautious approach of gradual institutional change leading to smooth reform, which Deng Xiaoping referred to as “crossing the river by stepping from stone to stone” — a metaphor that translates into doing a careful experiment before broad application of an approach for which you lack prior experience. This approach allows adaptation to local conditions during subsequent broader adoption of a new approach, and can thereby decrease the risks and costs of adopting a new strategy by first testing the change and then demonstrating the potential benefits to local residents and governments. This innovative approach has been a key component of China's economic reforms since 1978, and the Chinese experience shows how adapting programs to local natural and social conditions can help to motivate change and sustain the implementation of new institutions.     

Towards Sustainability Economics: Principles and Values

Synopsis  Radical alternatives, in terms of our ideas about science in society, about economics, ideology and institutional arrangements, should be included among possibilities considered within the scope of a pluralistic philosophy. While all these aspects of our mental maps are interrelated and important, economics plays a key role in attempts to get closer to a sustainable society. Mainstream neoclassical economics is not enough. The tendency to exclusively rely on this particular theory is considered part of the problems faced. A ‘sustainability economics’ more in line with dominant ideas of democracy is proposed, emphasizing the ethical, ideological and political elements. Reference is made to institutional theory but the principles and concepts suggested are in many ways similar to other kinds of heterodox economics and developments in other social sciences. Neoclassical economics is used as a point of reference in pointing to alternative ideas about human beings, organizations, markets, decision- making, efficiency, rationality, progress in society and institutional change processes. Predilection for such an alternative conceptual framework (or for neoclassical economics) is not exclusively a scientific choice but as much a matter of political and ideological preferences. One paradigm may be dominant at a time, but because of the ideological specificity of each paradigm, competing theoretical perspectives should be accepted and even encouraged in a democratic society.      

Violent conflict and institutional change*

Violent conflict such as civil war may influence institutional quality by changing the political equilibrium or by changing preferences and norms. This study presents empirical evidence that in some cases civil war deteriorates institutional quality. By applying the synthetic control method to 25 cases of civil war between 1960 and 2010, I construct the counterfactual path of institutional quality in the absence of civil war. The effects of civil war are heterogeneous, but for a substantial minority of cases civil war appears to deteriorate institutional quality. These findings have implications for post-civil war economic recovery as well as long run economic development.     

Reforming state-market relations in rural China1

Because of the political importance of stable and affordable food prices, governments in transitional economies in Europe and Asia fkequently struggle to balance the desire to maintain state controls in the rural sector with the goal of promoting market development and privatizing or commercializing state agencies involved in rural trade or finance. This paper examines institutional change in China's rural state agencies during the reform period, focusing on the conflict between managerial incentives to maximize profits, on the one hand, and implement policy, on the other. We explain the reasons for changing contractual incentives and authority arrangements over time, assess the effects of new institutional forms on economic performance and policy implementation, and consider reform options.     

Investigation of institutional changes in the UK housing market using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models

This paper investigates the effects of institutional changes within the UK housing market in recent decades using structural break tests and time-varying parameter models. This approach is motivated by models of institutional change drawn from the political science literature which focus on the existence of both fast-moving and slow-moving institutional changes and the interactions between them as drivers of the dynamics of asset prices. As a methodological contribution, we use several time-varying parameter models for the first time in investigations of institutional change. Our findings support the existence of both structural breaks and continuous variance in parameters. This contributes to our understanding of the housing market in two respects. Firstly, the dates of structural breaks appear to better match unexpected market shocks rather than remarkable political events, and this supports prior institutional theory. Secondly, assessment of the effect of slow-moving institutional changes shows that people’s biased expectations rather than the economic fundamentals have increasingly played an important role in driving housing prices in the short run although fundamentals continue to drive house prices to converge to their long-run equilibrium.     

Political entrepreneurs and electoral capital: the case of the Israeli State Economy Arrangement Law

This article looks at a specific institutional change in Israel. In 1985, Israeli politicians adopted the “State Economy Arrangement Law” (SEAL), commonly regarded as part of the budgetary legislation in Israel. This law became an alternative channel through which applicants could circumvent the necessity of applying to the Israeli parliament (the Knesset) for the implementation of certain policies. This law enabled an accelerated, flexible regulatory process that short circuited democratic discussion in the Knesset and obviated the intervention of Israeli consumer organizations. This article suggests that this institutional change should be analyzed as part of a process where institutional reality influences individual and collective beliefs, thus triggering an individual and collective learning process that eventually leads to institutional change, specific policies and outcomes in terms of economic performance. The article also claims that the SEAL legislation is an equilibrium that results from the actions of political entrepreneurs (or agents of change) who operate to maximize their own electoral capital against the backdrop of certain structural and cultural conditions, both local and international. They operate in an environment characterized by the inability of the government to function effectively (non-governability) and the development of an alternative political culture.

Confronting the Trilemma: Culture,Institutions, and Macroeconomic Disequilibria

Abstract

Although the fundamental trilemma of open-economy macroeconomics has been a popular framework for analyzing the effects of various policy combinations, it ignores how policy regimes change. Drawing from Post-Keynesian Institutionalist theory, this article considers this process in democracies as a type of technological change in which progress may be limited by insufficient knowledge and actions by vested interests. A case study of interwar France shows that these barriers often delay or weaken stabilization programs, which increase both political and economic uncertainty that further lowers aggregate demand and inhibits the attainment of macroeconomic equilibria. Although we should not generalize these observations, they suggest that understanding and addressing cultural and institutional factors may be necessary for successful countercyclical policymaking.     

Ten lessons from a quarter of a century of post-communist economic transformation

The dominant idea in the early post-communist economic transition was that an early and comprehensive radical economic reform programme was needed. This program was accompanied by a clear programme of political economy reform, which included; a clear understanding that the old system was finished, a political breakthrough, new political leaders, new economic policymakers, the swift elaboration of a reform programme, a functioning parliament, sufficient international financial support, fast implementation, public understanding, and the overruling of any need for consensus. In hindsight, all of these factors worked when they were present. Critics warned of too sharp an output fall, which did not come to pass, lagging institutional development, and neglect of social reforms. The biggest problem has become the absence of real property rights because of captured judicial systems in the post-communist countries not belonging to the European Union.     

German Finance Capitalism: The Paradigm Shift Underlying Financial Diversification

This article is concerned with the genesis of German financial liberalisation. A refined inventory of financial system change – including new meso-level data on finance pattern and the marketisation of banking – reveals a varied pattern of change across German finance. It is argued that this financial diversification can only be understood with careful reference to the underlying ideational factors. An analytical narrative traces how technocratic ideas of financial modernisation during the 1980s began to open up space for the political program of finance capitalism to absorb liberal and leftist discontents with insider control and bank dominance. Upon reaching a tipping point of discursive dominance, the program was distinctly adopted across the political economy as the result of compartmentally different political, ideational and structural factors; creating a non-hegemonic financial paradigm that became identifiable in the face of recent crises. By developing analytical steps that link incremental and dynamic theories of institutional change in a conceptual framework of belief shifts, the paper contributes to efforts of adapting existing models of change to complex domains and accounting for the dynamic nature of the paradigm-generating process. The findings inform the larger debate about internal capitalist diversity and the coherence of national economic models.     

论中国经济学的创建

传统社会主义政治经济学已经不能适应和指导我国社会主义市场经济体制形成和完善引致的制度变迁与社会转型的实践,必须进行理论观点、体系框架和研究方法上的创新。与时俱进,创建研究中国特色社会主义的中国经济学成为我们的紧迫任务。