Rethinking Industrial Policy for Low Income Countries

Abstract: The governments of low income countries should be giving more attention to ‘industrial policy’ than they and the aid donors have given in the past quarter century. (‘Industrial policy’ means any sectorally or activity‐targeted interventions, including in agriculture and services.) The first step is to discard the common assumption that industrial policy is about ‘picking winners’. The second step is to realize that industrial policy can be done ‘big’ or ‘small’, and by ‘leading the market’ or by ‘following the market’. It can be tailored to the available resources and state capacity. The third step is to see that the key issues of industrial policy are less to do with ‘what activities should be encouraged?’, or ‘what sorts of policy instruments are best?’, and more to do with, ‘how do we organize a process of discovery of sensible objectives and policies?’, and ‘how do we organize a constant nudging of producers to upgrade, diversify, link up with foreign firms?’ (where the nudging effort has to be targeted at some activities and sectors more than others). The paper illustrates with East Asian examples. One of the good effects of the current global crisis is that it has shaken confidence in the virtues of lightly regulated markets and free capital movements, and opened the way to a less ideologically charged debate about the role of the state in development—in which thinking is not precluded by easy jeers like ‘governments can't pick winners’ or ‘maybe the East Asians can do it but you can’t, so you have nothing to learn about industrial policy from them’.     

China’s macroeconomy: main challenges and countermeasures*

At the turn of the twenty-first century, the Chinese economy has become a leader from a complete follower in some industries. Thus, without innovation, it will be difficult for China to keep improving its technology further in the twenty-first century. Under the situation that ‘cash is of paramount importance’, the expansionary monetary policy leads to an increasing liquidity. People, with more money at hand, are prone to invest in stocks rather than in industries because it could be harder to withdraw their money from long-term investments. This phenomenon leads to bubbles in stocks and real estates in China. Based on the current situations, Professor Wu advocates an inclusive tax cut policy, as one of the biggest problems many Chinese entrepreneurs face is a lack confidence in the future. The main function of the government is to provide public goods, not to manipulate the market, intervene in the micro economy or ‘adjust the structure’ directly.     

How does GVC reconstruction affect economic growth and employment? Analysis of USA–China decoupling

The state of USA–China relations has become increasingly strained. The term ‘decoupling’ has been frequently used within the narrative of USA–China relations to describe the possible outcome of the relationship. A ‘decoupling’ of the USA and Chinese economies would trigger the restructuring of existing Global Value Chains (GVCs). Given this possibility, we use the 2014 World Input–Output Database (WIOD) and the hypothesis extraction method to simulate several scenarios of GVC reconstruction on economic growth and employment. From the analysis, we find that: (1) GVC reconstructions caused by USA–China decoupling would have a greater impact on China than on the USA. If USA–China bilateral trade is replaced by the surrounding economies, China's GDP and employment would fall by 2.57% and 2.34%, respectively. (2) The effects on regional economies are synergistic, with the countries directly surrounding China and the USA being more affected than India and most European countries. (3) USA manufacturing may benefit from the manufacturing repatriation policy, but the overall impact on economic growth would be limited. (4) In all reconstruction scenarios, global GDP figures are lower than they are today, demonstrating the importance of maintaining existing GVCs.     

Shared Sectoral Growth Versus the Dual Economy Model: Evidence from Côte d'Ivoire,Ghana, and Zimbabwe

Abstract: Though recently challenged, the dual economy view has affected development economics and development policy, either explicitly or implicitly, for more than half a century. According to this view, agriculture merely serves to build the industrial sector — in particular, agriculture has no role as an engine of growth in the long term. Examining agriculture, industry and service sector growth in Côte d'Ivoire, Ghana, and Zimbabwe over more than three decades, we find little empirical support for this view. On the contrary, our analyses find a large degree of interdependence in long‐run sectoral growth, implying that the sectors ‘grow together’ or, similarly, that there are externalities or spillovers between sectors. Policy implications are also discussed; these include directing more attention towards the interdependencies in sectoral growth broadly defined. In particular, our findings have implications for the design of education and health programs, as well. This improved understanding of inter‐sectoral dynamics at all levels may facilitate policy implementation aimed at increasing economic growth — and thereby ultimately improving peoples' livelihoods — in Africa and elsewhere.     

ECONOMIC REFORM WHEN THE CONSTITUTION MATTERS: INDONESIA'S CONSTITUTIONAL COURT AND ARTICLE 33

Article 33 of Indonesia's Constitution requires the state to ‘control’ important branches of production and natural resources. The meaning of ‘control’ has been a matter of significant debate since Indonesia's independence: does it require the state to manage directly, or is regulation enough? The government has recently sought to break down government monopolies and attract private investment in key sectors. To this end it has enacted a raft of new statutes, but they have been challenged in Indonesia's new Constitutional Court. The Court has opted for the ‘direct manage ment’ interpretation of article 33, striking down statutes that implicitly interpret it as requiring government regulation only. This paper discusses these decisions and, more broadly, problems arising from judicial intervention in economic policy formation. It also considers how the government has sought to circumvent the decisions, and the possible consequences of state non-compliance for the Court's future.     

Youth engagement in agricultural policy processes in Malawi

This study assesses the nature of networking between youth and agricultural policy-makers – given youth disillustionment with agricultural livelihoods. Using the Malawi case, a mixed-methods approach shows, first, that local government departments which are mandated to work on youth issues are the main hubs of information for youth in agriculture. The Ministry of Agriculture plays a secondary role. Second, the study shows that youth in agriculture have little or no direct interactions with each other. Therefore, youth remain on the periphery of agricultural policy-making and their role in shaping agricultural policy dialogue is negligible. This is attributable to both lack of a deliberate government policy to include the youth and lack of a unified youth platform. The onus is therefore on the youth to ensure that they are effectively engaged in agricultural policy dialogue. The study concludes with policy recommendations relevant for countries with a ‘youth/agriculture’ problem like Malawi.     

Growth and the Subsectoral Pattern of the Manufacturing Sector in Indonesia - A Comparative Study of 16 Countries

There is a widely held and optimistic view that, based upon the successful implementation of the product-cycle theory and the technological ladder hypothesis, ASEAN countries, the so-called Asian near NICs, will follow the Asian NICs up the ladder and take off as the second tier of NICs in the near future. To realise this ambition, each of the near NICs needs to successfully achieve two take-offs: first, rapid quantitative expansion based upon existing comparative advantage and, second, the successful transformation of their industrial structures to create dynamic comparative advantages. The Indonesian manufacturing sector recorded an average growth rate of 12% in 1980-90, but the accompanying structural changes were not great. The ‘rapid growth’but ‘modest structural change’of the Indonesian manufacturing sector raises the important problem of cultivating new leading sectors in the future. Usually the machinery subsector plays a big role in other ASEAN and NIES economies, but it still needs more momentum for development in Indonesia. This implies a strong need for the institutional and physical infrastructures, and supporting industries for the machinery subsector, as well as further diversification of the industrial structure. The purpose of this paper is to describe the features of industrialization in Indonesia in the 1980s, to measure the capacity of the transformation of the Indonesian manufacturing sector, and to discuss some policy issues related to furthering industrialization in the future. Section I contains some introductory remarks. In Section II, we implement the comparative analysis based upon two aggregate indicators. In Section III, we further analyse the structural changes at a more disaggregate level of 16 subsectors. In Section IV we concentrate on the machinery subsector, and analyse the growth potential and the necessary industrial policy in the medium or long run. In Section V we analyse the possible long-run development of a specialization pattern in the Indonesia manufacturing sector. We present the summary and conclusions with some relevant policy discussions in Section VI.     

Equity with growth in Taiwan: How ‘special’ is the ‘special case’?

This paper reviews some of the major findings of recent research on income distribution in Taiwan, presents some of the policy conclusions which emerge from that analysis, and comments on the possible transferability of the lessons of the Taiwan case to other developing country situations. In particular, the paper treats the question of why the so-called inverse U-shaped or Kuznets effect was apparently avoided in Taiwan during a period 3f unusually rapid growth - as a counter-example to the dominant school of ‘trade-off pessimists’.The issue of transferability is discussed with reference to more ‘typical’ LDC conditions such as those of Colombia and the Philippines - ‘Colphil’. At a more general level, the author considers the relevant differences and similarities between Taiwan and ‘Colphil’ and the extent to which these can or cannot be overcome by policy actions.     

SURVEY OF RECENT DEVELOPMENTS

The 10^th anniversary of Soeharto's resignation was coloured by disappointment with the slowness of reform, and with the government's reluctance to confront blatant religious intolerance. Nevertheless, economic growth is strong and investment spending buoyant. Inflation has risen well above target, suggesting that a more effective approach to monetary policy is needed. The recent surge in global rice prices coincided with bountiful domestic harvests, putting the government under pressure to restrict rice exports rather than imports as it has in recent years. However, restricting exports has been recognised as a ‘starve thy neighbour policy’, and the ASEAN trade ministers have jointly agreed ‘to continue fair trade practices and to achieve an orderly regional rice trade’.

The government has at last increased domestic fuel prices significantly, mind-ful of the waste of valuable resources and the inequity involved in keeping such prices constant in the face of world price increases. It will implement a cash transfer program to compensate the poor for the resulting increase in living costs.

The Ministry of Finance is leading reform of the central government bureaucracy. Its most fundamental initiatives are in human resource management, where it is attempting to match remuneration to skill requirements and responsibilities, and to align the pay structure more closely with that in the private sector–with pay rates rising much more rapidly than hitherto as levels of responsibility increase. It is also encouraging competition to fill vacancies by advertising them internally, rather than continuing to rely on promotion by seniority. At local government level, a small number of heads of government have gained a reputation as pioneers of reform. Two interviewed for this survey are exemplars of precisely what it was hoped would result from bringing government closer to the people through decentralisation, and from the switch to direct election of heads of local government. Both have considerable experience in the private sector, and their success seems related to their more entrepreneurial (as distinct from bureaucratic) way of thinking.

‘Good corporate governance’ has now become the mantra for state-owned enterprises (SOEs). It is recognised that this depends heavily on choosing the right people to manage each firm and to oversee it on behalf of its owner. Accordingly, almost all directors and commissioners of the 11 SOEs indirectly studied here have been replaced in recent months, and there is now a willingness to appoint professionals from private companies and from academia in order to gain access to needed skills. In addition, the initial selection of candidates has been shifted outside the bureaucracy to professional recruitment agencies.     

An Austrian view on the middle income trap

This paper intends to give a nuanced interpretation ‘the middle income trap’ in the discussion on China’s economic future. A developing nation gets ‘trapped’ when it reaches a relatively comfortable level of income but cannot take the step into the next level. In this paper, the usually made connection between income trap and the structure of economy is critically examined and the ‘trap’ is interpreted as a bearer of information in itself. According to the Austrian school of economics (Hayek), prices represent the sum of information that is available to the markets. Stagnating incomes will consequentially be read as information concerning the lack of growth of the productivity of the work force and the industry. The ‘middle income trap’ has to be addressed at microeconomic level, focusing on the increase of productivity. Usually, the trap cannot be addressed by government policies, but has to be solved by increased entrepreneurship.     

政策性金融支持PE发展、促进经济增长的应用

私募股权投资基金自产生伊始,就有效地将虚拟金融与实体经济结合到了一起,作为一种新型的金融创新形式,某种程度上促进了实体经济的发展。然而,它在我国的发展还处于起步阶段,有许多制度上的问题尚待解决,政策性金融作为政府财政和商业性金融的巧妙结合体,必将成为PE制度完善的有效支持体系。     

Explaining the Productivity Growth Gap Between China and India: The Role of Structural Transformation

Chinese and Indian aggregate productivity growth has been significantly different over the last 30 years. This paper studies the role of structural transformation in accounting for the aggregate productivity growth gap between two economies. We calibrate a neoclassical model of structural transformation for China and India. The model implies that higher productivity growth in China's manufacturing and agriculture accounts for most of the aggregate productivity growth gap between the two countries. According to the development strategy of China's government, China would start a new phase of structural transformation whereby employment is moving from manufacturing to services. Since the productivity growth gap in services is pretty small between China and India, if China wants to remain superior in relative productivity, it should improve the productivity growth rate of services. In contrast, the relative performance in India hinges on closing its productivity gap in agriculture and manufacturing relative to China.     

Bridging skills demand and supply in South Africa: The role of public and private intermediaries

ABSTRACT

Demand-led skills development requires linkages and coordination between firms and education and training organisations, which are major challenges considering that each represents a ‘self-interested’ entity. The need for a ‘collaborative project’ involving government, firms, universities and colleges, and other bodies is thus increasingly recognised. However, the crucial role of intermediaries has been largely overlooked. The article addresses this gap by investigating the main roles of public and private intermediaries across three case studies: sugarcane growing and milling, automotive component manufacturing, and the Square Kilometre Array sectoral systems of innovation. The research highlights the need for a move towards systemic thinking, to bridge across public and private objectives. It shows that private intermediaries play a larger role than is recognised in policy; that public–private intermediaries play crucial roles in coordination; and the potential for public intermediaries to contribute more effectively to systemic functioning.     

(In)equality and the South African Constitution

ABSTRACT

Does the South African Constitution constrain or empower government, courts and citizens in addressing systemic social and economic inequalities? This article argues that the Constitution is explicitly ‘transformative’, but is an enabling document, providing ‘scaffolding’ for political and legal activities. It is government, strong institutions and civil society that are ultimately responsible for securing its equality aspirations. Here the Constitution admits of different understandings of equality and different economic and social policy choices. This article identifies these contested meanings of equality and suggests that a liberal egalitarian/social democratic version is dominant in policy choices and the jurisprudence of the Constitutional Court. It illustrates this with reference to the Court’s jurisprudence on equality, and suggests that more radical and transformative interpretations remain possible. However, it concludes that we cannot escape politics, the need for good policy choices and effective implementation and enforcement.     

Four‐G Episode and the elevated risks

Complacency and a false perception that markets will correct imbalances during two decades of ‘Great Moderation’ led to ‘Global Imbalances’. The low interest rates and a lack of proper oversight, combined with a perception that housing prices will always move north, brought the sub‐prime crisis in the USA and the subsequent ‘Global Financial Crisis’ and European crisis. The Quantitative Easing policy in advanced economies (AE) created an even more permissive global liquidity. The externality affecting emerging markets (EM) took the form of massive capital inflows, first channelled through banks where the global banks‐mostly headquartered in Europe‐played a significant role and then through capital market with fund managers being the protagonist. The augmented liquidity spurred growth in EM but also elevated the risk of financial instability. Capital flows reversal, slower growth and less benign external conditions have put EM in a quandary. The uncertainty is heightened by a non‐synchronised monetary policy in AE (‘Great Divergence’). To the extent that standard policies have become ineffective, and to defend from externality caused by AE's unilateral policy (financial nationalism), it is argued that EM can put a damper on the dangerous component of capital inflows. As part of macroprudential policy, such a measure is equivalent with discouraging risky behaviour to prevent financial instability and worsening income inequality.     

Dynamic technological specialization,aggregated convergence and growth

This paper focuses on the contribution of dynamic technological specialization to aggregated growth and convergence. Certain theoretical approaches (Structuralism) maintain the view that being specialized in ‘correct’ technologies helps to achieve: i) sustainable rhythms of long-run growth; ii) accelerated catching up and higher rhythms of convergence in delayed countries. Using an endogenous growth model for a 23 countries sample between 1980 and 2010, the work contrasts those hypotheses by using static and dynamic approaches for technological specialization in comparison to other technological variables. Empirical results do not confirm that any ‘good’ specialization matters to growth and convergence at an aggregated level, neither under static nor dynamic approaches. The key elements to aggregated convergence and growth are more linked to spillovers of technological diffusion and to country-specificities (technological capabilities and capacities, domestic technical efforts, national innovation systems, industrial innovation processes, etc.) as it is pointed out by catching-up theories.     

The problem of defining ‘community’: Challenges for the land reform programme in rural South Africa

This article argues that the use of the term ‘community’ in South Africa's land reform programme has both positive and negative effects on the beneficiaries. Effects are positive when they help focus policy on the needs of poor people, but negative when they force conflicting groups together in a manner which results in the rights of a weaker group being trampled on by the actions of a more powerful group. The article briefly reviews different ways of looking at the concept ‘community’, and then analyses in detail a case from the Wild Coast, where a Spatial Development Initiative (SDI) has raised questions about who should benefit from land reform and economic development. It is concluded that a detailed understanding of local reality, even if it takes time to develop, should be seen as essential to both land restitution and the rights enquiry processes which government policy proposes to employ for resolving conflicting and overlapping claims to tenure rights     

Engaging with homelessness in the City of Tshwane: Ethical and practical considerations

ABSTRACT

Policies and practices aimed at developing more engaged universities that are responsive to the needs of society have become key features of the higher education landscape of most countries. Visions of universities ‘engaged’ in matters of local importance increasingly require academics to reframe their scholarship as some form of ‘engagement’. This requirement has been addressed in many different disciplines and has been met with ambivalence. Academics who see engagement as a new form of ‘public good’ find it enhancing of their teaching and research activities, while others view engaged work as unnecessary and problematic ‘third mission’ activities that impede on ‘normal’ academic work. This article aims to contribute to these debates by interrogating the paradoxes of action and inaction. Drawing on recent experiences in reviewing a policy on homelessness for a municipality in South Africa, the article seeks to bring the ambiguities and challenges of engagement into greater visibility.     

The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective

Indonesia's long-run ‘pro-poor growth’ record is among the best in Asia. It shows that appropriate policies can free societies from poverty's worst manifestations in a generation, a crucial message as democracy begins to influence the policy process. This paper places Indonesia's record in regional perspective, analysing determinants of income distribution in Asia and connecting this analysis to Indonesia's pro-poor growth process and the policy mechanisms that encourage pro-poor growth. Using a data set for eight Asian countries, it examines patterns of change in incomes and distribution across countries and over time. Building on Indonesian experience, the paper presents a pro-poor growth model encompassing three levels: improving the ‘capabilities’ of the poor, lowering transactions costs in the economy, especially between rural and urban areas, and increasing demand for goods and services produced by the poor. It finds that rapid pro-poor growth requires simultaneous and balanced interaction between growth and distribution processes.     

Agglomeration externalities and productivity growth: US cities, 1880–1930

We investigate the role of industrial structure in labour productivity growth in manufacturing in US cities during the ‘second industrial revolution’. We find that initially greater specialization was associated with faster subsequent productivity growth but that only the very high levels of diversity which obtained in some very large cities had a positive correlation. We interpret our results as demonstrating the existence of dynamic Marshallian externalities. The impact of industrial specialization in our sample of US cities after 1890 is found to have raised the level of labour productivity in manufacturing by about 4 per cent by 1920.