The legacy and promise of Vannevar Bush: rethinking the model of innovation and the role of public policy

The linear model of innovation argues that innovation takes place in a unidirectional sequence, with basic research directly diffusing in marketable product or process innovations. This perspective has served society well in past decades. However, recent productivity slowdowns in developed economies and the failure of innovation policies to continue to deliver desired results have called this perspective into question. Scholars explain these slowdowns by the oversimplification of the linear model which fails to consider the complexities associated with innovation processes. Although it is generally believed that Vannevar Bush’s report Science – The Endless Frontier – was based on his belief in a linear model of innovation and the notion that basic research is the ultimate source of all innovation, an examination of Bush’s writings and his life reveals that he believed in a more sophisticated model in which basic and applied research cross-fertilize each other and in which government’s job is not so much to stimulate basic research as it is to facilitate interactions between basic and applied research for the benefit of both and the prosperity of society. This paper explicates Bush’s model of the research and innovation process, explores the implications of that model, and derives policy recommendations.     

The role of public policy in closing foreign direct investment gaps: an empirical analysis

Using public policy instruments to attract Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) has become standard in most countries, irrespective of their level of development, geographical location or industrial structure. Against this background the paper analyses the suitability of various public policies to attract inward FDI based on a sample of 11 countries and 10 industries from the manufacturing sector over 10 years. For this aim we derive an empirical baseline model of the determinants of inward FDI-stock. From this baseline model FDI-gaps—measured as the difference between the “estimated actual” inward FDI-stock and the “potential” FDI-stock, which could be realized if a certain “best practice policy” were carried out—are derived. Thereby the analysis focuses on business taxation, public research and development expenditures, the information and communication infrastructure endowment, labor costs as well as institutional and skill-related policies. The analysis inter alia reveals the share of each of these location factors in the total industry- and country-level FDI-gap. Moreover, the analysis explores how policy advice depends on the definition of the “best practice policy”.     

A patent-based cross impact analysis for quantitative estimation of technological impact: The case of information and communication technology

The increasing syntheses and interactions between various technologies increase the usefulness of cross impact analysis (CIA) as a method for forecasting and analyzing them. Conventional CIA depends on an expert's qualitative judgment or intuition and thus it is difficult to evaluate quantitatively the impact of one technology on another. In this study, we employ patent analysis in CIA to examine such impacts between technologies based on multiple patent classifications. Patent information is used for facilitating quantitative and systematic approach in CIA. The distinctive feature and main contribution of the proposed approach is the overcoming of the limitations of conventional CIA, by employing conditional probabilities based on the patent information. The classification of patents, particularly the multiple classifications, is used to evaluate the relationships between technologies. As an illustration, a patent-based CIA with information and communication technologies (ICTs) was conducted. Firstly, the patent-based cross impact among ICTs was calculated. Secondly, the technology pairs were classified based on the cross impact score between ICTs. Thirdly, a cross impact network was constructed to identify the complex relation among ICTs. Finally, the changes in cross impact scores between technologies over time were analyzed. The results of this research are expected to help practitioners to forecast future trends and to develop better R&D strategies.     

Cost of stroke in Canada: a 1-year prospective study

Summary

The objective of this study was to estimate the 1-year cost of stroke for patients in Canada in 2004 and to determine the factors that contribute to this cost.

This work was based on a prospective follow-up study of all patients presenting with a stroke or transient ischaemic attack (TIA) to the emergency room in a large teaching hospital over a 6-month prospective period. All healthcare, social services, patient and caregiver resource utilisation attributable to strokes or TIAs were included in the analysis. There were 365 patients who met the

inclusion criteria. The average 1-year cost of managing patients with TIA was the lowest at $17,769, followed by ischaemic strokes at $53,576 and haemorrhagic strokes at $56,573. Predictors for 1-year cost were: type of stroke; discharge severity of stroke; death; marital status; discharge destination; and the presence of diabetes and congestive heart failure.

Initial hospitalisation costs represented the majority of 1-year costs of stroke. However, caregiver expenses are significant at between 11% and 27% of the total are 1-year cost.     

Evaluation of the green technology innovation efficiency of China's manufacturing industries: DEA window analysis with ideal window width

Data Envelopment Analysis (DEA) window analysis with ideal window width is applied to evaluate the green technology innovation efficiency of 28 manufacturing industries in China during 2006–2014. The obtained results are compared with those calculated using the traditional DEA model, and convergence analysis of the efficiency is conducted. Five years is the obtained ideal window width and DEA window analysis with ideal window produces results closer to reality for China's manufacturing industry. The overall efficiency of the green technology innovation in the manufacturing sector is low following a wave-shaped curve – first decreasing, then increasing and decreasing again, with large inter-industrial differences. There are 8 high-, 14 medium- and 6 low-efficiency industries. A convergence trend in the green technology innovation efficiency within the 28 manufacturing industries exists, implying a catch-up effect between them.     

The impact of exploration and exploitation learning on organisational innovativeness among hospitals: an open innovation view

This study tries to explore the impact of exploration and exploitation learning on organisational innovativeness among health service organisations from an open innovation view. We developed several constructs including realised absorptive capacity (RACAP), breadth and depth of external knowledge acquisition and tried to explore the roles of these constructs in the influence process of organisational learning on organisational innovativeness. The mail survey was used to collect research data from top hospital managers in Taiwan. The overall valid response rate was 44.23%. We applied a structural equation model to test the research hypothesis. Results indicated the breadth and depth of external knowledge acquisition would affect organisational innovativeness through RACAP. Exploration learning had a directly positive influence on RACAP and also had an indirect impact through the mediation of breadth and depth of external knowledge acquisition among health service organisations.     

Cumulative causation in the formation of a technological innovation system: The case of biofuels in the Netherlands

Despite its worldwide success, the innovation systems approach is often criticised for being theoretically underdeveloped. This paper aims to contribute to the conceptual and methodological basis of the (technological) innovation systems approach. We propose an alteration that improves the analysis of dynamics, especially with respect to emerging innovation systems. We do this by expanding on the technological innovation systems and system functions literature, and by employing the method of ‘event history analysis’. By mapping events, the interactions between system functions and their development over time can be analysed. Based on this it becomes possible to identify forms of positive feedback, i.e. cumulative causation. As an illustration of the approach, we assess the biofuels innovation system in The Netherlands as it evolved from 1990 to 2007.     

Investigating the determinants of patent acquisition in biotechnology: an empirical analysis

Acquiring patents is an increasingly relevant opportunity for innovating companies, especially after the rise and development of the so-called markets for technologies (MFTs). However, only scant attention has been devoted to investigate patents' characteristics influencing their acquisition by organisations. Accordingly, this paper aims at filling this gap by analysing how four main characteristics – as patent scope, scientific knowledge cited by the patent, forward patent citations, and number of patent claims – impact the likelihood of patent acquisition. We based our statistical analysis on a sample of 9716 US Patent and Trademark Office patents assigned to 165 biotechnological firms. Results support our conjectures and offer interesting managerial implications for organisations operating within MFTs indicating which characteristics make patented technological solutions more likely to be acquired by other firms, as a narrow scope, inclusion of scientific knowledge, and a number of forward citations able to increase patent's impact and exclusion rights.     

瑞典科技领域的重大政策动向与计划

2009年,瑞典继续保持在医药、工程与制造业、信息与通讯技术、森林工业、能源等主要领域的研究创新优势,在2008—2009年全球竞争力排名为第四,对研发的总投入达到GDP的3．74％。2009年是瑞典政府在战略研究领域实施“2009—2012年研究与创新预算法案”的第一年,政府开始实施对重大项目的资助。2008年年底全球金融危机的爆发,对瑞典企业部门影响很大,瑞典政府和企业部门共同努力寻求提高创新能力和全球竞争力的方法,并且积极开拓国际合作的新渠道。     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

Diversity of technology acquisition in technological catch-up: an industry-level analysis of Chinese manufacturing

Using panel data analysis for an industry-level sample of Chinese manufacturing industries from 2000 to 2009, the study examines how latecomers dynamically adapt technology acquisition strategy in terms of technology acquisition diversity during the transition process from imitation to innovation. Our research considers technology acquisition as a portfolio of technology channels and thus examines the impact of technology gap between domestic firms and foreign firms on technology acquisition strategy at the industry level. The findings reveal that technology gap positively affects technology acquisition diversity of Chinese manufacturing industries. Further, it shows that technological uncertainty weakens the positive impact of technology gap on diversity of technology acquisition.     

Medical technology decisions in The Netherlands: How to solve the dilemma of technology foresight versus market research?

In this article, we discuss a dilemma consisting of the market-oriented perspective of users of medical technology versus the long-term technology foresight perspective. The context of medical technology is interesting, because we have to cope with complex future-oriented multi-level and multi-actor strategic decision making. In order to deal with this dilemma we suggest combining the results of a (group) expert opinion forecasting approach with a more market-oriented scenario-approach. More specifically, we use the results of the Delphi-technique as the main input for the development of various capacity (Market-based) scenarios. We exemplify this approach by a real life example directed at the future of imaging techniques for cancer care in The Netherlands and focus on a set of scenarios that deal with the application of the MRI-technique in the period 2005–2015. The Delphi-panel's expectations with respect to imaging technology representing the technological forecasts, combined with other relevant developments (such as demographic and epidemiological developments) are translated into alternative inputs for assumptions of the scenario-model. This model is basic to the future projections in terms of needed MRI-scanners, manpower and investments. We argue that the results provide motivation to continue to explore the methodological interesting area of innovation, aligning the market-oriented perspective of users of (medical) technology with the long-term technology forecasting perspective.     

The impact of medical insurance coverage and molecular monitoring frequency on outcomes in chronic myeloid leukemia: real-world evidence in China

Objectives: Imatinib (Glivec) has been covered by critical disease insurance for treatment of chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) in Jiangsu province of China since 2013. Further, free molecular monitoring has been provided to patients at top clinical centers as part of a pilot study that has changed the local treatment pattern and outcomes of patients with CML. This study evaluates the impact of medical insurance coverage and the molecular monitoring frequency on outcomes of patients with CML treated at a central hospital in Jiangsu, China, according to patient-level data.

Methods: The study investigated 335 CML patients receiving medical treatment in a central hospital between January 1, 2011 and December 31, 2014. Demographic and clinical characteristics were extracted from the patients’ clinical records. Univariate and multivariate analyses using the logistic regression model were performed to identify the differences in outcomes of major molecular response (MMR) or complete cytogenetic response (CCyR) between patients who were insured vs uninsured, or between patients with frequency of PCR monitoring ≤2 times vs ≥3 times per year.

Results: Both the achievement of MMR (BCR-ABL^IS ≤0.1%) (50.4% vs 37.5%) and CCyR (80.7% vs 62.8%) at 12 months have shown significant differences that favored patients with insurance coverage of imatinib, while there was no significant difference in the outcome of BCR-ABL^IS ≤1% between insured and non-insured groups (56.0% vs 51.3%) at 6 months. The long-term results at 24 months demonstrated that there was a statistically significant difference in MMR rates between the group with 3 or more PCR monitoring tests per year and the group of patients with 2 or less PCR tests per year (76.9% vs 52.2%).

Conclusions: The study findings suggest that CML patients benefit from insurance coverage of imatinib and higher frequency (≥3) of regularly scheduled molecular monitoring PCR in China.     

高技术产业绿色技术创新的动因:内外部研发与协同创新

聚焦生态文明型的高技术产业绿色技术创新,基于2006—2017年省级面板数据,采用Super-SBM模型测度环境约束下的中国高技术产业绿色技术创新。利用系统GMM模型对影响高技术产业创新的动因进行实证检验,并构建VAR模型探索其长期效果。结果表明:高技术产业绿色技术创新具有自身“累积”效应;国际研发对高技术产业绿色技术创新具有促进作用,但高强度环境规制对其有“成本挤出”效应;在短期,内部研发尚未促进高技术产业绿色技术创新,但环境规制带来的“财税激励”能够推动绿色技术创新;仅高环境规制地区内外部研发能够产生协同效应。     

Bridging the gap between technological possibilities and people:: Involving people in the early phases of technology development

Technology provides endless promising possibilities to support people's lives. In reality, it is not a matter of what is possible, but rather a matter of how and when technology will be integrated, accepted and adopted by people. However, conventionally within organizations the areas of technology development and market research are not closely related nor applied in the process of innovation and do not always share the same scope. In that sense there is a gap between the potential of technology and humankind's preferences.This paper discusses the current areas of technology development and market research in a business environment and proposes an integrated approach to bridge the gap between technology and people, in which people, rather than market sizes become central in the development of technology. In addition, it also describes how this approach of people-driven innovation is brought into practice through the development of early experience demonstrators. The core focus of this paper is on the processes and practices regarding innovation within an organization, rather than the adoption of innovation by users or the rate of the adoption of a marketed solution (Rogers, 1995 [E.M. Rogers, Diffusion of Innovations, The Free Press, New York, 1995. [1]]).     

企业家精神对我国产业技术效率的影响——基于随机前沿生产函数的实证研究

本文从企业家职能入手,探讨了创业精神与创新精神影响我国产业技术效率的微观机理,并以36个工业行业1998-2007年的面板数据为样本,运用随机前沿分析的方法进行实证检验。结果表明：创业精神基于纠错机制对技术效率的促进作用,在行政壁垒越大的行业越明显,对全部行业却并不显著;创新精神通过推动生产前沿边界的外移成为提升我国产业技术效率的主导力量,且该效应在市场竞争较充分的行业会得到强化。     

The development of research and innovation policies based on a benchmarking assessment: the case of mobile communications technology R&D in the new member states of the EU

This paper presents the process and the results that led to an objective assessment of 34 research programmes from 14 countries based on a multifactor analysis. The programmes that were analysed come from the EU's new member states and the accession countries. The methodology used was specially developed for policy development purposes and for the design of the roadmaps leading to an open and successful R&D programme in the area of mobile communications. The method and the results obtained and later used for the policy development and road mapping are discussed. The policies designed and strategic objectives derived are briefly described. The consequences expected to follow the policy implementation in the relevant countries are evaluated and discussed.     

The impact of IT investment on firm performance in China: An empirical investigation of the Chinese electronics industry

Over the past three decades, the impact of information technology (IT) investments on firm performance has been the subject of active research. Although many studies have shown positive and significant benefits derived from IT investment, the findings of almost all these studies are based on data collected in developed countries. Few studies have been conducted to validate these results and to determine whether or not they are still applicable in developing countries. This study tries to investigate the effects of IT investment on firm financial performance in the electronics industry of China, still classified as a developing country, and compare it with the United States. Findings show that IT investment has a positive impact on firm performance in China. Moreover, the impact in China is not different from what occurred in the United States in terms of direction and the size against the assertion of previous studies and expectations.     

The societal burden of pain in Germany: Health-related quality-of-life,health status and direct medical costs

Abstract

Objectives:

The purpose of this paper is to estimate the impact of the severity and frequency of pain on health-related quality-of-life (HRQoL), self-reported health status, and direct medical costs in Germany.

Methods:

Data are from the internet-based 2010 National Health and Wellness Survey (NHWS). Estimates of the impact of pain experience are generated by a series of regression models. In the case of HRQoL the physical and mental summary scores from the SF-12, together with SF-6D utilities, are evaluated within an ordinary least squares framework. Health status is assessed through an ordered logit model. Direct medical costs are estimated through a semi-logarithmic healthcare cost function. Socioeconomic characteristics, health risk behaviors, and the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) are introduced as control variables in all regressions.

Results:

An estimated 23.96% of the adult German population (16.39 million) reported experiencing pain in the last 30 days. Of these 13.16% reported severe pain. The experience of frequent severe and moderate pain has a significant deficit impact on HRQoL. For those experiencing severe daily pain, the deficit in the SF-12 physical component score (PCS) is ?17.930 (95% CI: ?18.720 to ?17.140), the SF-12 mental component score (MCS) is ?8.787 (05% CI: ?9.857 to ?7.716), and SF-6D absolute utilities ?0.201 (95% CI: ?0.214 to ?0.188); with self-reported health status the deficit impact of severe daily pain is also substantial (OR?=?29.000; 95% CI: 23.000–36.580). In the case of direct medical costs severe daily pain increases healthcare provider costs by 101.6% and total direct costs by 123.9%.

Limitations:

The NHWS is an internet survey. The principal limitation is that as a self-report there is no separate validation of pain severity or chronicity.

Conclusions:

The experience of pain has a substantial negative impact on HRQoL, health status, and resource utilization in Germany. If pain is considered as a disease in its own right, the experience of chronic pain presents policy-makers with a major challenge.     

奥地利科研在可持续发展进程中的作用及其所形成的新局面和新特点

本文通过对奥地利可持续发展近二十多种情况的盘点,全面分析和总结了奥地利科研在奥地利可持续发展进程中发挥的作用、由此生成的新局面及新特点。文章对奥地利可持续发展历程、与此相关的科研活动、形成的规划和已取得的成效以及对未来经济发展的设计进行了详细的描述,对国家层面现行科研管理及促进体系、应用研究机构现状、产学研联盟组织与分布和现有科技强项加以系统的归纳和介绍。通过本文,可了解奥地利近二十年来科研围绕国家经济发展的开展情况、国家自主创新体制的形成以及当前科研主攻的方向。同时,本文还对值得借鉴的几点经验进行了概述。