The Urbanization Process and Economic Growth: The So-What Question

There is an extensive literature on the urbanization process looking at both urbanization and urban concentration, asking whether and when there is under or over-urbanization or under or over urban concentration. Writers argue that national government policies and non-democratic institutions promote excessive concentration—the extent to which the urban population of a country is concentrated in one or two major metropolitan areas—except in former planned economies where migration restrictions are enforced. These literatures assume that there is an optimal level of urbanization or an optimal level of urban concentration, but no research to date has quantitatively examined the assumption and asked the basic “so-what” question—how great are the economic losses from significant deviations from any optimal degrees of urban concentration or rates of urbanization? This paper shows that (1) there is a best degree of urban concentration, in terms of maximizing productivity growth (2) that best degree varies with the level of development and country size, and (3) over or under-concentration can be very costly in terms of productivity growth. The paper shows also that productivity growth is not strongly affected by urbanization per se. Rapid urbanization has often occurred in the face of low or negative economic growth over some decades. Moreover, urbanization is a transitory phenomenon where many countries are now fully urbanized.     

农村—城市移民率的变动与中国城市化的关系

在我国的经济发展过程中,城市化水平不断提高,并伴随有大量的农村人口向城市转移。本文通过构建一个理论分析框架,在城市化水平与农村—城市移民率的变动之间建立一个模型,发现在农村—城市移民率和城市化水平、农村人口与总人口自然增长率之间存在着联系。通过城市化数据分析我国的农村—城市移民率的变化情况,并应用城市化的logistic方程对城市化水平以及农村—城市移民率进行进一步的估计,最后预测它们未来的发展趋势。     

An Analysis of Poverty in the American South: How Are Metropolitan Areas Different from Nonmetropolitan Areas?

This article examines the causes of poverty in the American South and identifies differences in the causes that exist between metropolitan and nonmetropolitan counties. Using a multiple linear regression model, a county's poverty rate is regressed on a vector of variables related to characteristics of its population, educational attainment, and economy. This study finds that most of these characteristics affect a county's poverty rate, but it also finds that several of the characteristics have a significantly different effect on the poverty rate of metropolitan counties than on the poverty rate of nonmetropolitan counties. These differences suggests that policy makers involved in fighting poverty in metropolitan counties may need to focus their efforts on changing different characteristics of the county than those engaged in fighting poverty in nonmetropolitan counties. (JEL I30 , R10 )     

Reversing Metropolitan Concentration as an Economic Issue

The author examines the forces and problems underlying one of the central phenomena of our times. For the first time in almost one hundred years, rural counties in almost all parts of the U.S. are experiencing net in-migration. And for the first time ever, Standard Metropolitan Statistical Areas are experiencing in significant numbers actual population losses. Leven argues that this “metropolitan turnaround” is an outcome primarily of technologically-based changes in the economies of scale and agglomeration, with some reenforcement from prevailing social values. Understanding the economic organization and functions of the “emerging metropolis” are essential to the development of governmental policy.     

The long breadth of cities: revisiting worldwide urbanization patterns, 1950–2030

ABSTRACT

A comparative analysis of population dynamics worldwide contributes to profile distinctive demographic and economic trajectories of urban growth, discriminating processes of settlement concentration or dispersion under sequential cycles of urbanization. However, a wide-ranging characterization of urban cycles based on demographic dynamics worldwide is still missing. The present work is aimed at filling such a gap analysing long-term changes (1950–2030) in annual population growth rate of 1691 urban agglomerations with more than 300,000 inhabitants in 74 world countries. Results of this study indicate that metropolitan growth worldwide was associated with largely variable rates of population growth, highly positive before 2000 and progressively reducing over recent decades. Despite important differences at continental (and country) scale, demographic expansion of urban agglomerations showed two contrasting phases with a break point in the 1980s denoting a progressive reduction in spatial heterogeneity of population growth rates and a moderate slowdown in demographic dynamics. Intensity of urban expansion and spatial heterogeneity in population growth rates across metropolitan agglomerations evidences a trade-off between fast and slow demographic dynamics. These findings can be better understood to support theories of sequential city growth, making a suitable contribution to policy making, especially in countries where urban population is expanding more rapidly.     

转型期的城镇化演进:困境与突破——以“重庆户改”为例解读

改革开放以来在产业形态、经济形态、社会形态三方面所发生了转型变化,这些转型要素推动了三十年来的城镇化演进。从宏观、中观和微观三个层面构建城镇化演进的理论分析框架,可知:人口城镇化滞后于土地城镇化和产业城镇化是当前城镇化演进的一个主要困境。实现城镇化模式转型是破解当前城镇化困境的主要路径。伴随着经济增长方式的转变,深化以户籍制度为主的一系列综合配套改革,以还农民工一份有尊严的生活为目标,加速推进以户籍制度改革为核心的城镇化模式转型将是探索新型城镇化的重要路径。     

转型中的中国城市发展——城市级层结构、融资能力与迁移政策

中国转型时期城市的产生与发展模式 ,既区别于成熟的市场经济 ,也不同于传统计划经济。市场经济力量 (如城市的自我融资能力 )和以再分配的方式获取资源(行政级别的影响 )都对城市的发展起作用。计量结果表明 ,由于市场发育水平的不同 ,中西部地区在城市发展模式上显著区别于东部地区。前者仍然具有浓厚的转型特征 ,行政分配资源仍然对城市发展有着显著的影响 ,而东部地区城市发展的市场导向格局已基本形成。由于一些城市仍然依靠再分配资源发展城市 ,具有阻碍人口流动的动机 ,扭曲了城市化整体格局。因此 ,进一步推进户籍制度改革和城市基础设施建设的市场化 ,有利于加快和完善市场条件下的城市化机制。     

Ways of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation

This paper presents ways of regulating migration processes in the Russian Federation. Migrations discussed include international, domestic, and migrations among regions. It was proposed that a conceptual model for the state migration policy of Russia for the medium and long term should be developed to project main goals, tasks, and priorities of migration policy. Secondly, there is a need to elaborate the conceptual model of the distribution of productive forces of Russia under the market economy conditions for the long term, and its connection with migration policy. Thirdly, the system of macroeconomic regulation of the processes of migration should be a general model for the settlement of the inhabitants of the Russian Federation. Furthermore, the Russian society should guard itself against the negative social consequences of illegal migration. Illegal entry of foreigners and labor migration is considered to be the principal problems of migration in Russia. Finally, Russia should focus on the redistribution of its population in such a way that it will gain the maximum benefit.     

人口迁移和流动对生态环境的有利影响分析

改革开放以来，我国人口的迁移流动不断增强，城市化进程迅速加快。由此也产生了一系列的社会、经济和生态环境问题。这些问题的产生，使很多人对人口的迁移流动和城市化持否定的态度。与此相反，本文从迁移人口素质的提高、人口的集聚效应，以及相应的生产效率、资源利用率的增加，促进环境污染的治理和资源的循环综合利用，有利于迁出地的生态     

新疆区域经济与城市化协调发展探讨

现有文献与规划一般认为新疆需要走大中小城市协调发展、重点建设都市圈的城市化发展道路。文章基于人口与自然资源条件、区域经济发展状况以及城镇布局之间的关系,从更为广阔的地缘政治经济格局中,对新疆区域经济与城市化发展的适宜空间指向做出了若干探讨;提出新疆的区域发展需要建立在"都市区"的空间成长基础之上;并且与中国的东部、中部地区相比,新疆的大中小城市协调发展应是一种非常独特的空间格局。     

西部地区人口迁移与经济增长关系的演进分析

笔者首先对改革开放以来西部地区人口迁移的规律和特征做出分析和判断,在此基础上运用内生人口迁移经济增长模型,实际测算了近十几年来西部各省区省际人口迁移对经济增长的影响强度。结果显示,各省区的人均产出与人口净迁移率之间存在较高的正相关性,但人口迁移对经济影响的强度有所差别,从整体来看,西南地区净迁移人口的作用更大一些。此外,没有任何迹象表明省际人口迁移伴随有地区间经济发展水平的收敛(趋同),相反,正是因为地区间经济发展水平的不断扩大,才会形成以四川、新疆、陕西等为流入中心的省际迁移人口聚集地。     

21世纪中叶现代化:城市化

国内外对城市化内涵与城市化方式争议较多 ,城市化既是不可阻挡的全球性浪潮 ,也是中国特色社会主义现代化的必由之路 ,其内涵有二 :一是农村人口、地域转变为城市人口、地域的过程 ,即城市化数量过程 ;二是城市文化、生活方式及价值观等城市文明在农村地域扩散过程 ,即城市化质量过程。中国城市化的必然性 ,包括亿万农民的追求、人口众多的国情、耕地资源的稀缺性和大都市连绵带的辐射 ,以及经济全球化的推波助澜。中国城市现代化战略选择是城市发展多元化、创造世界特大城市群体、建立沿海城市经济带、开拓长江城市群体系、整合传统城市群和建立国家城市化目标等。     

Research on driving forces for rural settlement land changes in China

During the rapid urbanization period, the contradiction between demand for the construction land and the preservation of cultivated land for food security is getting more and more serious in China. With the urbanization the rural settlement land is increasing instead of decreasing; This paper aims at.finding the driving forces for rural settlement land expanston. Based on land use change survey data （1996-2006） by the Ministry of Land and Resources P. R. C., this paper find, that per capita area for rural settlement land is more than per capita area for city; township and industrial land in each province except Tibet. Besides, rural settlement land area and per capita rural settlement land area are increasing while the rural poputation is decreasing in most provinces. The main problems of rural settlement land use are low efficiency, high vacancy rate, chaotic layout and illegal occupancy. Then the driving forces [br rural settlement land expansion, including economic development, family income, family scale, psychological factors, urbanization, transportation, lack of planning, limited circulation of dwelling-house land and imperfect sociat security, ate explored based on above analysis, Finalty, policy recommendations, in view of different influencing factors, are put forward to control the disorder expansion of rural setttement land.     

城市化对农民收入增长影响的动态计量分析

农民收入的提高关系到整个社会的顺利发展,而城市化是提高农民收入的一个重要途径。通过动态计量模型分析来说明城市化对农民收入增长的影响,即对城市化与农民人均纯收入两个经济变量进行协整分析;对两个经济变量进行格兰杰因果关系检验;在VAR模型的基础上,运用脉冲响应函数来分析两个经济变量之间的关系;在实证结果的基础上提出了相应的政策建议。     

中国省域人口迁移的经济增长效应——基于内生增长视角的实证分析

陈述了改革开放以来我国的人口迁移规律,从理论上分析了人口迁移的动态变迁过程,并结合一般均衡理论、新古典增长模型说明了人口迁移过程中的经济发展水平变动特征。构建含带人口迁移因素的内生增长模型,对人口迁移的内生增长作用机制作出了解析,并以此为基础实证分析了我国省域近10年来人口迁移对经济增长的内生影响特征与变动趋势。二元人口迁移存在明确的动态均衡过程,受其影响,会导致城乡两部门出现产出的一般均衡状态,而这一状态符合新古典增长模型所设定的假设条件与稳态结论。从实际情况看,我国省域间的城乡二元人口净迁移具有明确的经济增长效应,同时不同省份、四大区域总体上表现出增长效应递减特征。     

户籍对价、劳动力迁移与土地流转

土地流转的根本目的在于社会经济发展方式的转变,需要城市化的大力发展,劳动力迁移和土地流转是城市化发展的一个重要环节。然而,在中国目前的制度约束下,户籍制度成为劳动力迁移的退出和进入壁垒。户籍制度之所以成为城市化的一个障碍,就在于附着于其上的福利价值,所以,要消除这一障碍必须交换其福利价值。本文认为,在农村劳动力城市化迁移中,通过户籍对价来解决迁移劳动力的土地退出和城市安置,不仅能够鼓励劳动力迁移,而且也有利于土地流转。这是一种可行的户籍改革措施和城市化的发展策略。     

长株潭城市群城市化进程中流动人口的管理与服务

流动人口是城市化进程的产物。与我国三个典型的城市群相比,长株潭城市群的流动人口动力、来源和规模具有地方特点。在长株潭＂两型社会＂的构建中,对于流动人口的管理和服务,除了政府在其中起主导作用外,社会及流动人口个人也起着重要的作用,主要是各种思想观念的转变,解放思想,与时俱进,以服务为出发点,开创流动人口管理和服务的新局面。     

Expectations,information, and migration: the case of the West Bank and Gaza

"This study evaluates the determinants of Palestinian migration from the West Bank and Gaza. Data are employed for the post-1967 period of Israeli rule to specify and test competing models as well as the strucure of expectations in the migration decision. Results of the analysis support a simple static expectation formulation, as is consistent with much of the short-term, low mobility cost migration between the West Bank and Jordan. Findings further point to the importance of various Israeli-Palestinian economic and political economic interactions in the determination of this controversial movement of population, including those associated with employment opportunity for Palestinian labour in Israel, elements of Israeli West Bank settlement policy and changes in local standard of living. Various policy implications of the research are indicated."     

我国大都市区的管治结构

管治对象、管治动机（目标）、管治主体、管治体系、管治过程等组成了大都市区的管治结构。大都市区管治的对象是面向大都市区公共物品和公共事务;随着我国进入城市化加速发展时期和融入经济全球化进程的加快,在大都市区管治中必须协调政府与跨国公司、非政府组织、政府间组织以及市民社会等主体之间的关系;要构建完善的垂直管治体系和水平管治体系,实现由“后果导向”式管治向“原因导向”式管治的转变。     

Dynamics of rural-urban migration in India: 1960-1981

"This paper analyzes a multi-sectoral simulation model of the Indian economy designed to isolate the sources of Indian economic growth and urbanization since 1960. The model shares many common traits with other computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models, and its underlying framework is neoclassical. The model stresses spatial issues so that it can provide predictions on rural/urban labor demands, and hence on migration flows. The central issue we seek to evaluate is whether a neoclassical development paradigm can explain adequately the somewhat paradoxical patterns of urbanization and economic growth observed in India since 1960. Our conclusion is a qualified, affirmative response, based on the model's ability to replicate key macroeconomic variables."