Long-term bank balance sheet management: Estimation and simulation of risk-factors

We propose a dynamic framework which encompasses the main risks in balance sheets of banks in an integrated fashion. Our contributions are fourfold: (1) solving a simple one-period model that describes the optimal bank policy under credit risk; (2) estimating the long-term stochastic processes underlying the risk factors in the balance sheet, taking into account the credit and interest rate cycles; (3) simulating several scenarios for interest rates and charge-offs; and (4) describing the equations that govern the evolution of the balance sheet in the long run. The models that we use address momentum and the interaction between different rates. Our results enable simulation of bank balance sheets over time given a bank’s lending strategy and provides a basis for an optimization model to determine bank asset–liability management strategy endogenously.     

When does a central bank׳s balance sheet require fiscal support?

Using a simple, general equilibrium model, we argue that it would be appropriate for a central bank with a large balance sheet composed of long-duration nominal assets to have access to, and be willing to ask for, support for its balance sheet by the fiscal authority. Otherwise its ability to control inflation may be at risk. This need for balance sheet support — a within-government transaction — is distinct from the need for fiscal backing of inflation policy that arises even in models where the central bank׳s balance sheet is merged with that of the rest of the government.     

A model of a systemic bank run

This paper provides a model of the view that the 2008 financial crisis is reminiscent of a bank run, focussing on six stylized key features. In particular, core financial institutions have invested their funds in asset-backed securities rather than committed to long-term projects: in distress, these can potentially be sold to a large pool of outside investors at steep discounts. I consider two different motives for outside investors and their interaction with banks trading asset-backed securities: uncertainty aversion versus adverse selection. I shall argue that the version with uncertainty averse investors is more consistent with the stylized facts than the adverse selection perspective: in the former, the crisis deepens, the larger the market share of distressed core banks, while a run becomes less likely instead as a result in the adverse selection version. Therefore, the outright purchase of troubled assets by the government at prices above current market prices may both alleviate the financial crises as well as provide tax payers with returns above those for safe securities.     

A dynamic model of active portfolio management with benchmark orientation

This paper studies optimal dynamic portfolios for investors concerned with the performance of their portfolios relative to a benchmark. Assuming that asset returns follow a multi-linear factor model similar to the structure of Ross (1976) [Ross, S., 1976. The arbitrage theory of the capital asset pricing model. Journal of Economic Theory, 13, 342–360] and that portfolio managers adopt a mean tracking error analysis similar to that of Roll (1992) [Roll, R., 1992. A mean/variance analysis of tracking error. Journal of Portfolio Management, 18, 13–22], we develop a dynamic model of active portfolio management maximizing risk adjusted excess return over a selected benchmark. Unlike the case of constant proportional portfolios for standard utility maximization, our optimal portfolio policy is state dependent, being a function of time to investment horizon, the return on the benchmark portfolio, and the return on the investment portfolio. We define a dynamic performance measure which relates portfolio’s return to its risk sensitivity. Abnormal returns at each point in time are quantified as the difference between the realized and the model-fitted returns. Risk sensitivity is estimated through a dynamic matching that minimizes the total fitted error of portfolio returns. For illustration, we analyze eight representative mutual funds in the U.S. market and show how this model can be used in practice.     

A model of green bank marketing

In the light of current market conditions, the financial services industry has been reshaped, requiring new marketing knowledge to provide guidelines for successful practice. To that end, corporate social responsibility, green marketing and a green brand image (GBI) have attracted considerable interest in the banking sector, although no framework has yet been established relating these constructs to one another. In this article, the authors present exploratory research as a basis for developing a model of green bank marketing. The model was tested to confirm the dimensions of green bank marketing and investigate its impact on a GBI, thus providing statistical evidence of the relationship between the two variables.     

Interbank: A bank management simulation exercise

Management games and management simulation exercises can be used as extremely effective educational tools. As they grow in sophistication, their application in high-level education and management development is spreading. While a variety of company simulation exercises have been available for many years, very few are intended specifically for use in banking applications. This article reviews the use of management games in banking, and analyses one particular exercise — InterBank.     

An instantaneous control model of bank reserves and Federal funds management

Empirical evidence indicates that large banks are generally net buyers of Federal funds, while small banks tend to be net sellers. Asymmetric information, bank monopoly power, or risk-aversion arguments have been offered for this phenomenon. However, these models do not address the close link between bank reserves and Federal funds purchases as alternative means of liquidity management. Our stochastic control model focuses on this link and has three main implications: (1) it analyzes interaction between the above-mentioned influences; (2) it identifies three additional reasons for banks' Federal funds activity; and (3) it examines the transmission of monetary policy in a dynamic framework.     

A theory of bank regulation and management compensation

We show that concentrating bank regulation on bank capital ratiosmay be ineffective in controlling risk taking. We propose, instead,a more direct mechanism of influencing bank risk-taking incentives,in which the FDIC insurance premium scheme incorporates incentivefeatures of top-management compensation. With this scheme, weshow that bank owners choose an optimal management compensationstructure that induces first-best value-maximizing investmentchoices by a bank's management. We explicitly characterize theparameters of the optimal management compensation structureand the fairly priced FDIC insurance premium in the presenceof a single or multiple sources of agency problems.     

A multicriteria model for portfolio management

The paper presents a new model to support the selection of a portfolio of stocks based on the results of the fieldwork undertaken with fund managers and using direct rating, MACBETH and optimisation techniques. The model consists of defining a benchmark portfolio (in this case, the Dow Jones Eurostoxx50) and scoring its different stocks according to several expected return criteria. Based on this multicriteria value analysis, a procedure is proposed to suggest adjustments to the proportions of the stocks in the portfolio. Finally, the risk of this modified portfolio is taken into consideration in an optimization module that includes constraints concerning the limits of variation for the proportion of each stock.     

华夏银行为中关村企业量身定制金融服务新模式

3月18日,由中国人民银行营业管理部、北京银监局、北京市金融工作局、北京市国资委、中关村管委会、海淀区政府与华夏银行联合推出的“龙舟计划闪耀科技金融”信贷创新推广活动,标志着华夏银行为中关村国家自主创新示范区高科技型企业量身定制的金融服务模式全面启动。     

A Markov model for valuing asset prices in a dynamic bargaining market

This paper proposes a Markov chain model for studying the impact on asset prices of illiquidity associated with search and bargaining in an economy. The economy consists of finitely many agents who can trade only when they find each other, and any trade between agents changes the population of the agent types which affects the asset price in the future. Assuming that the equilibrium utility as well as the trade price is proportional to the asset dividend, we obtain the asset prices in steady state. Through extensive numerical experiments, we observe that the equilibrium prices exhibit the cutoff phenomenon (i.e. crash) as the fraction of pessimistic agents becomes large. Models with a market maker as well as irrational agents are also considered.     

基于AHP法的银行信贷风险管理绩效评价模型的构建

随着以雷曼兄弟银行破产保护和全球最大保险公司AIG严重财务危机为代表的华尔街金融风暴的出现,全球商业银行都提出了相应的对策,但是,效果如何,还需要通过科学的方法进行评价,以便发现不足之处,然后再继续完善对策,达到对银行信贷风险的最优管理.我国在信贷风险管理绩效评价方面与国际银行相比还比较落后,正处于起步阶段.为此,作者在借鉴国际银行业信贷风险管理绩效已有的方法和经验的基础上,结合我国当前信贷风险管理绩效评价的实践,用层次分析法(AHP)确定评定指标权重;采用模糊综合评判对信贷管理的绩效进行评价,以期建立一套比较可行的信贷管理业绩评价体系.     

一种基于加密技术的银行网络系统安全方案

在银行网络系统的信息技术发展的同时,安全问题也随之产生,长期以来安全防范是重中之重,网络系统安全技术涉及到通信、主机系统(服务器)和各种应用方面的安全等.     

客户体验管理在银行产品创新中的应用探究

伴随着市场经济的快速发展,顾客需求已不再满足于单纯的商品功能,而是进一步扩展为对购买或消费背后的身心愉悦、社会认同及自我实现等更高层次价值的追求。对各银行来说,如何有效利用客户体验为产品研发提供指引,从而避开创新同质化陷阱,     

Alternative central bank credit policies for liquidity provision in a model of payments

I explore alternative central bank policies for liquidity provision in a model of payments. I use a mechanism design approach so that agents’ incentives to default are explicit and contingent on the credit policy designed. In the first policy, the central bank invests in costly enforcement and charges an interest rate to recover costs. I show that the second-best solution is not distortionary. In the second policy, the central bank requires collateral. If collateral does not bear an opportunity cost, then the solution is first best. Otherwise, the second best is distortionary because collateral serves as a binding credit constraint.     

数据仓库与商业银行战略管理

我国商业银行在股改上市后越来越重视战略管理。但是,从整体上看,在战略制定、战略执行、战略评估等方面,由于缺乏量化数据支持,商业银行决策层定性的主观判断较多,只有构建企业级的数据仓库平台方能解决这个问题。由此,数据仓库技术在我国商业银行战略管理领域得到了广泛的应用,     

现代商业银行财务管理信息系统的分析与构建

随着信息技术的不断发展,面对全球金融业的激烈竞争,国际先进银行都加快了信息化建设的步伐。先进的财务管理信息系统作为现代商业银行管理信息化建设的重要组成部分,不仅有助于银行提高运营效率、降低运营成本,而且对于银行提高管理水平、加强金融风险防范具有重要作用。     

Identifying the balance sheet and the lending channels of monetary transmission: A loan-level analysis

We make a novel attempt at comparing the strength of the lending and balance sheet channels of monetary transmission. To make this comparison, we use loan-level data to determine how borrower balance sheets and bank liquidity are related to bank lending decisions and how monetary policy can affect these relationships. The key innovation in this paper is the use of loan-level data. This enables us to measure the independent effects of the two channels and directly account for borrower balance sheets and lender liquidity instead of using proxies. Our results show that the balance sheet channel is the main mechanism through which monetary policy shocks are transmitted to the economy and that the lending channel does not play a significant role.