Is growth corrupted or bureaucratic? Panel evidence from the enlarged EU

This article aims at analysing the issue of conditional convergence in the new enlarged European Union (EU) over the period 1995–2012 by means of panel data techniques. We examined the issue of conditional convergence in the enlarged EU giving particular attention to the effects of corruption and bureaucracy on growth controlling for a widely used set of explanatory variables such as investment (domestic and foreign), human capital formation, inflation, general government final consumption and trade openness. Furthermore, we examine if growth responds differently to corruption and bureaucracy in the new EU members by means of two group-specific interaction variables to capture possible different responses to corruption and bureaucracy. The analysis reveals evidence of conditional convergence in the enlarged EU, with investment share, foreign direct investment, human capital, and country openness appearing as robust growth drivers. In contrast, inflation and government consumption rather hamper growth. Furthermore, the effects of corruption and bureaucracy on growth seem to differ across old and new EU members.     

Development Policies in the EU: An International Comparison

This paper studies the impact of the EU Structural Funds Program for the period 1989–93 on the growth paths of the major recipient countries, Greece, Ireland, and Portugal. It uses an endogenous growth model of private, public, and human capital accumulation in which the public sector and current account balances play a crucial role. Simulation results show that these programs had a substantial impact on economic growth in these economies and contributed markedly to their convergence to EU standards. Their relative long-run position, however, would still be far from EU standards, which suggests the importance of continuing the transfer program.     

A model-based analysis of the impact of Cohesion Policy expenditure 2000–06: Simulations with the QUEST III endogenous R&D model

More than a third of the EU budget is devoted to Cohesion Policy with the objective to foster economic and social cohesion in the European Union. Large-scale fiscal transfers are used to support investment in infrastructure, R&D and human capital. This paper provides a model-based assessment of the potential macroeconomic impact of these fiscal transfers using a DSGE model with semi-endogenous growth (Jones, 1995) and endogenous human capital accumulation. The simulations show the potential benefits of Structural Funds with significant output gains in the long run due to sizeable productivity improvements.     

Recent trends and structural breaks in the US and EU15 labour productivity growth

This article examines shifts in labour productivity growth in the US and in Europe between 1970 and 2007 based on econometric tests of structural breaks. Additionally, it makes use of time-series-based projections of labour productivity growth up to 2009 in order to detect breaks depending on confidence intervals of the projections. The identification of structural breaks in the US labour productivity growth is far from obvious. A statistically significant break is found in the late 1990s only if at least the 97.5th percentile of forecasts materializes in the future, which means that despite a clear pick up in productivity growth in the second half of the 1990s, the size of the hump is not large enough compared with past variations to make this change a statistically significant break. However, a significant break point is detected in the mid-1990s for the difference in labour productivity growth between the US and the EU15, even when controlling for the convergence of Europe towards the US productivity levels that has contributed to higher European performance in the early catch up phase. Finally, within Europe, the accumulation of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) capital seems to be related to differences in the shifts in structural labour productivity growth across countries.     

Sources of energy productivity growth and its distribution dynamics in China

The purposes of this paper are to determine the sources of energy productivity growth at the provincial level in China and to examine the relative contributions of the sources and their impacts on regional inequality. Energy productivity change is first decomposed into five components attributable to changes in capital–energy ratio, labor–energy ratio, output structure, and technical efficiency change and technological change. Then a nonparametric analysis is implemented to statistically test the relative contributions of the components and their roles in the distribution dynamics of energy productivity. It is found that (1) changes in capital–energy ratio, output structure, and technological change contribute to energy productivity growth in China, (2) increase in capital–energy ratio caused by capital accumulation is the primary driving force for energy productivity growth, and (3) capital accumulation contributes to energy productivity convergence between Chinese provinces over the time period of 1990–2005.     

Real Convergence,Capital Flows,and Competitiveness in Central and Eastern Europe

The paper scrutinizes the role of capital flows for competitiveness in the new EU member states in the context of real convergence. For this purpose it extends the seminal Balassa–Samuelson model by international capital markets to trace cyclical deviations of real exchange rates from the productivity‐driven equilibrium path. Panel estimations for the period from 1998 to 2009 reveal strong evidence for the Balassa–Samuelson effect and mixed results for the role of capital flows for international competitiveness of the Central and Eastern European countries.     

European integration, productivity growth and real convergence

This paper derives a stochastic endogenous growth model to investigate the impact of European Union (EU) integration on convergence and productivity growth. The theoretical model implies both temporary and permanent positive effects of the integration process. The empirical part of the analysis uses structural break tests and data envelopment analysis to examine the accession process of five recent members to the EU15. The results show (i) endogenously identified accession dates as structural breaks, (ii) improved rates of productivity growth after accession over and above the Union benchmark level, and (iii) increased pace of overall growth due to capital accumulation as a result of institutional features of the Union such as Structural and Cohesion Funds. These findings support the theoretical model, implying that economic integration is beneficial for member countries, especially from a long-run perspective, and Cohesion and Structural funds help the new members catch up with the core-EU members’ standard of living.     

Convergence,divergence, or multiple steady states? New evidence on the institutional development within the European Union

Convergence in institutions and in per capita income across the European Union (EU) Member States are key goals of the European integrations process. Especially in the course of the various EU enlargement waves starting in 2004, it was intensively discussed whether institutional and structural homogeneity are necessary preconditions for real convergence and the smooth functioning of the EU or whether a (further) catching up in the institutional and economic development will endogenously occur after the EU accession. Our paper is dedicated to the analysis of these institutional dynamics within the EU. In particular, we analyze the formation of institutional convergence clusters using Phillips and Sul's (2007, 2009) log t-test over the period 2002 to 2018. Our results indicate the existence of multiple institutional clubs with various countries being stuck in a poor institutional trap. Moreover, we find that institutional convergence clubs are formed mainly on the basis of geographic region; in particular, we identify a northwest-southeast divide. When analyzing per capita income clubs, a rather similar picture emerges, suggesting that the underlying institutional clusters might drive the formation of income clubs. We also study the factors that determine institutional club membership by using an ordered probit model. Most importantly, we find that the initial levels of human capital and institutional quality are decisive for determining whether a country is on a high or low institutional growth path.     

Efficiency‐adjusted public capital,capital grants,and growth

A debate on whether capital grants, and especially European Union (EU) funds, actually contribute to growth has gained prominence lately. This article empirically assesses the relationship between the quality of public investment, capital grants, and growth in a sample of 43 emerging and peripheral economies over 1991–2015. To this end, the contribution of public capital to growth is estimated using efficiency‐adjusted public capital stock series, which reflects the quality of public investment management institutions. In addition, the determinants of effective public investment are analyzed. The results suggest that capital grants contribute positively to effective public investment, and the latter is significant in explaining variations in economic growth. Finally, the article illustrates the impact of raising EU funds absorption on potential growth in emerging and peripheral EU countries.     

HUMAN CAPITAL FORMATION AND CONTINUOUS TRAINING: EVIDENCE FOR EU COUNTRIES

This paper links data on continuous training from the EU Labour Force Survey (LFS) to information on skill levels and earnings from the EU KLEMS growth and productivity accounts, to examine the relative magnitudes of continuous workforce training versus human capital formation through the general education system in the European Union. The measurement methodology draws from the literature on measuring intangible investments by firms and sources of growth in an accounting framework. The results suggest that in the EU15 group of countries, intangible investments in continuous training represent just under 2 percent of GDP or about 35 percent of expenditure on general education. The share of GDP accounted for by training is less than a third as large in the new member states. A growth accounting method is employed to show that failure to account for continuous training leads to an underestimate of the impact of human capital on output growth in the EU.     

珠三角地区资本结构与劳资关系的实证研究

根据资本-劳动替代的“拐点论”,经济发展的初期总是伴随着物质资本的积累,物质资本将在相当长的时期占据经济增长的主导地位;由于资本劳动的边际替代率递减,当物质资本积累处于一定阶段,产生对人力资本更多需求,人力资本则成为这个时期的主要资本;只有在经济持续发展,政治文明发展到一定程度,信任、规范、网络和社会公德等社会资本才有可能成为推动经济发展的主导力量。珠三角地区城市的劳资关系在近30年均处于下降趋势,物质资本总体处于上升趋势,人力资本意义上的劳动力尤其是高层次高素质的劳动力较缺乏;社会资本可以显著的促进物质资本和人力资本的积累,物质资本水平的提高并不必然产生人力资本积累和社会资本积累的结果,人力资本积累也不必然促进社会资本的发展。需要转变经济发展方式,为资本演化创造物质条件,促进人力资本和社会资本积累,并在企业管理层面上促进合作型劳资关系的形成。     

人力资本与区域全要素生产率分析

本文采用Malmquist指数分析了我国30个省级行政区1996—2003年的全要素生产率(TFP)增长,并将其分解为技术进步指数和效率变化指数。为了减少计算偏差,我们在使用承认无效率项存在的生产前沿技术的同时,引入了人力资本要素。本文的分析结果表明我国的人力资本水平增长迅速,30个省区的经济增长效率差距逐年扩大。同时我们发现在引入人力资本要素后,1996—2003年区域全要素生产率的增长得益于技术进步;如果不考虑人力资本存量,则低估了同期的效率提高程度,而高估了期间的技术进步指数。     

The Growth Crisis of Germany: A Blueprint of the Developed Economies

Germany has realized tremendous growth rates in the aftermath of the Second World War. Since the early 1970s, growth rates declined and settled down at a more or less constant rate of 2% per year, only to experience a renewed negative trend around the early 2000s. Estimating GMM growth models in a panel of 187 countries between 1970 and 2010, we illustrate that large parts of historical welfare increases have emerged due to conditional convergence, human capital accumulation, and innovation activity. Whereas conditional convergence was the main driver behind the extraordinary postwar growth rates in Germany, human capital accumulation in Germany currently lags behind the average level of most developed countries. While this may explain the moderate position of Germany in the group of the 25 richest countries, the developed countries on their part are experiencing a period of below-average GDP growth. In nearly all advanced economies, growth reveals a downward trend since the turn of the millennium. We argue that this decline must be traced back to a general lack of radically new ideas in the world economy. The explanation of the German growth crisis may thus be considered a blueprint of the situation in developed economies.     

Spatial heterogeneity and interregional spillovers in the European Union: Do cohesion policies encourage convergence across regions?

Using a spatial econometric perspective, the speed of convergence for a sample of 163 regions of the European Union (EU) over the period 1981–1996 is estimated. For this purpose, we use a specification strategy which allows an explicit modeling of both spatial heterogeneity and spatial autocorrelation found in the analyzed sample. The estimated final model combines groupwise heterocedasticity, the identification of two spatial regimes and spatial dependence. Our results show how an appropriate consideration of the role of spatial effects can shed new insights into the European convergence process. We find that regions in the EU cohesion-fund countries (Ireland, Greece, Portugal and Spain) are converging separately from the rest of regions of the EU. Our estimations indicate that over the analyzed period, there was a faster conditional convergence in relative income levels of the regions belonging to Cohesion countries (5.3%) than in the rest of the regions of the EU (3.3%). Therefore, our results contrast with other evidence that points to the fact that the convergence process in Europe has weakened or even has stopped at the beginning of the 1980s. Moreover, our work shows clear evidence of separate spatial convergence clubs among EU regions.     

Does the presence of high-skilled employees increase total and high-skilled employment in the long run? Evidence from Austria

Studies conducted for the US have found a positive effect of human capital endowments on employment growth, with human capital endowments diverging at the same time. In contrast, studies for European countries have found convergence of human capital endowments. This paper tests these relationships for the 99 Austrian districts for the observation period 1971–2011 by estimating how the presence of high-skilled employment affects total, low-skilled and high-skilled employment growth. To this end, OLS, fixed-effects and first-difference regressions are estimated. The results indicate continuous convergence of high-skilled employment which, however, slowed down significantly since the 1990s. In contrast to previous studies, evidence for positive effects of high-skilled on total and low-skilled employment is only weak and varies over time. Furthermore, the results show that total and high-skilled employment in suburban areas grew faster than in other regions, while districts which bordered the Eastern Bloc were disadvantaged. Nevertheless, spatial neighbourhood effects within Austria are only weak.     

Patterns of Corporate Financing and Financial System Convergence in Europe

The paper investigates the possibility of convergence in the European Union (EU) in terms of the patterns of corporate financing by banks, bond markets, and stock markets; and in the context of whether the economies are converging towards an Anglo‐Saxon (capital‐market‐oriented) or a continental (bank‐oriented) financial system. GMM estimation of a dynamic fixed‐effects model is implemented to test for conditional and unconditional convergence using a panel of flow of funds data for the period 1972–1996 for seven EU member countries. It is found that the pattern of corporate financing is consistent with the pecking order theory of financing choices. Overall, the evidence suggests convergence of the EU financial systems on a variant of the Anglo‐Saxon model, depicting heavy reliance on internal financing as well as direct financing via equity and bond markets, while bank debt is becoming relatively less important.     

人力资本积累阶段与经济增长阶段关联机制研究

文章研究了人力资本积累阶段与经济增长阶段的关联机制,指出人力资本积累也存在一定的阶段性,并与经济增长的阶段性相对应。人力资本积累的阶段通过产业结构这个中间变量的变迁来推动经济增长积累阶段的变迁,反之,经济增长阶段的变迁也需要人力资本积累阶段相应变化。     

金融危机中农民工人力资本的保护与提升

来自美国的金融危机对我国的出口、经济和就业产生了影响,在受到冲击的各类人群中,农民工无疑是最值得关注的一个群体。作为已经从事过人力资本投资、具有一定技能的劳动力来说,如果任其在危机中返乡,从事农业生产或是失业,势必造成人力资本的浪费。因此,对返乡的农民工进行职业技能培训,以适应产业结构的调整;对其进行创业培训,鼓励并资助其自主创业;开发中西部经济;推动农村产业化发展,对于人力资本的提升和有效利用、对于经济的发展无疑具有重要作用。     

The role of Provincial Government Spending Composition in growth and convergence in China

China’s development policy since 1978 has differed across regions. With rapid aggregate growth has come widening regional inequality. The fiscal decentralisation reforms in 1994 shifted political pressure onto provincial officials to boost local growth through local public investments. These investments affect regional convergence by counteracting regulatory frictions in factor accumulation, and can also determine steady-state growth. However, the effect of public spending allocations across physical and human capital on growth and convergence processes is empirically unexplored for Chinese provinces. We take provincial time-series data on public spending by category, finding local public spending and its components augment convergence rates differently across regions. Spending on education and health contributes significantly more to growth and convergence than capital spending, confirming that the public capital-spending bias is not a local growth-optimising strategy. We suggest a policy of aligning local government promotion incentives to human capital targets to correct local resource misallocation.     

Granger causality tests among openness to international trade,human capital accumulation and economic growth in China: 1952–1999

Abstract

This study examines Granger causality among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth in China using time series data over the period from 1952 to 1999 and a sub-period, i.e. a period from 1978 to 1999. For the 1952–1999 period, economic growth is found to Granger cause human capital accumulation and not vice versa. For the 1978–1999 period, economic growth and openness to international trade, economic growth and human capital accumulation, and human capital accumulation and openness to international trade are found to have bidirectional Granger causality, respectively. Thus, there is a dynamic relationship among openness to international trade, human capital accumulation and economic growth. The experience of economic reform in China could be an example to other developing countries.