Dynamics of the economic transition in Poland: An attempt at interpretation

The objective of this analysis is to describe, interpret, and assess the socioeconomic changes that took place in Poland during 1989 to 1997. This is a dynamic approach that considers the relationships that exist between successive phases of transformation and is characterized by both quantitative and qualitative analysis. The study is in three sections. The first section sets forth analytical tools and methods to study systemic transformation at large. It searches for the promising manner of a transition appraisal. The second section discusses division of the economy into sphere of regulation and real sphere. In turn, the third section includes a dynamic analysis of interrelationships between those spheres that are subject to changes in the course of transformation and, in various ways, shape the economic performance in Poland. Finally, this paper draws conclusions concerning the failures and successes of the economic transition.     

High skills pay off: the changing wage structure during economic transition in Poland

Economic transition turns the inherited wage structure upside down. Changes are rapid and dramatic. The Polish example shows that even in the first year of market-oriented reforms, there was a marked increase in earnings inequality, a dramatic rise in the wage premium for white-collar skills, and a significant jump in the returns to education. In contrast, skills acquired under the old system lost their value. It is younger workers who are rewarded with higher wages. The changes are spearheaded by the private sector, where inequalities and the educational premium are higher than in the public sector. Privatization, thus, has its social aspects in that it strengthens the incentive for human capital investment. This paper documents these changes and sets out possible explanations.     

Trends and cycles under changing economic conditions

The identification of trends and cycles is often a challenging task under sizeable changes in economic conditions. Business cycles have unique features, varying in duration, intensity and across countries. We propose an unobserved components model with flexible product and labour market equations to cope with evolving economic conditions, namely time-varying inflation processes and labour share trends. Moreover, we augment the information set with data-driven low-frequency movements in real variables before initiating a joint estimation of all unobserved components. We use the same model to establish an international comparison between the euro area and Portugal covering 40 years of data. We conclude that Portugal witnessed (i) a steeper potential output deceleration since the 1990s, driven initially by productivity and afterwards also by the labour and capital inputs; (ii) a pervasively higher volatility in labour and product markets; and (iii) a long-lived interruption in convergence trends after the 2000s.     

Economic transition and elections in Poland1

Poland's economic and political transition, one of the most successful, has depended very heavily on job creation in new firms to replace the jobs lost in the formerly state‐owned enterprises. This paper uses survey and aggregate data from three Polish elections to suggest that these de novo firms, the individuals they employ, and the residents in the local areas where they exist become an important constituency supporting pro‐reform political parties and constraining the actions of parties less sympathetic to the reforms. The creation of this political constituency helps explain how countries can successfully pursue both economic and political reforms. JEL classification: D72, P26.     

The Czech economic transition

The processes that will drive the next stage of the Czech transition are likely to be similar to those promoting real convergence in the countries of the EU periphery. We draw on previous modeling research on these latter economies to construct and calibrate a small macrosectoral model of the Czech Republic. Model simulations explore some key policy issues facing CEE‐country decision‐makers: labour market reforms, disinflation and industrial development. Our analysis suggests that much can be learned from the experience of countries like Ireland and Portugal which have converged substantially towards EU average living standards.     

The determinants of economic growth of transition economies: Economic reform versus initial conditions

Abstract

This study analyzes factors for economic recovery of transition economies in Europe and the Commonwealth of Independent States for the period of the 1990s. Covariance structure analysis is employed to estimate the structural equation system, and exploratory factor analysis is conducted to measure initial conditions and economic policy as latent variables. The result of analysis shows that the effect of initial conditions is negative and the impact of economic reform on growth is positive. However, the negative effect of initial conditions had overridden the positive impact of economic policy as of 2000. The reason that transition economies could not recover their pre-transition GDP level (even after ten years of transition history) seems to stem from the negative influence of initial conditions on growth rather than the slow speed of economic reform.     

Gender pay differentials during the transition in Poland*

This paper assesses the relative economic welfare of women during the transition in Poland. After providing an account of gender differences in several labour market outcomes we analyse the male‐female wage differential over the period 1993–97. We find that there is almost no change in the wage gap, that most of the explained portion of the wage gap may be attributed to industrial and occupational segregation, and that a substantial portion of the wage gap remains unexplained. We briefly discuss possible socio‐economic explanations for our findings.     

The end of economic transition

The transition from plan to market was the largest natural experiment in economics ever. Now, 20 years from the start of transition, all former socialist countries are market economies at the middle stage of economic development, and convergence with neighbours, if not with the developed world, is largely achieved. With hindsight, it is clear that economists have spent too much time debating proper sequencing of reforms and the fine‐tuning of reform packages. At the same time, the magnitude of the output and consumption fall in some countries was vastly underestimated, while the benefits of reforms have taken longer to materialize than expected. Successful practitioners of reform praise perseverance during and after the initial setbacks and willingness to make political compromises. At the conclusion of the natural experiment, transition economics has all but vanished as an academic discipline, although it played a crucial role in the formation of modern political economics.     

Public support for economic transition

This paper focuses on the Czech economic transition and aims to identify the determinants of unusually high and long-lasting public support for market reforms. The study is based on a unique combination of statistical analysis of survey data and oral history (interviews with reformers, managers etc.), which has enabled us to depict the views of the general public as well as of many people involved in decision-making processes on both macro and micro levels. These findings allow us to propose recommendations on how to gain and maintain public support for economic reforms. Above all, reformers must utilize the period of euphoria and communicate the individual steps of reform with the public.     

Social and economic changes: Poland 1989–95

The systematic transformation in Poland began with enormous expectations of the people concerning results of the re-establishment of the market economy and economic freedom. Four and a half years after the start of reform, overwhelming popular disillusionment and frustrations have caused the spectacular comeback of the post-Communists. Some of the frustrations have been rooted in the radical changes in income distribution and the growth of poverty. An even more important factor than changes in wages and other income distribution has been changes in the relative position of different professions, sectors of economic activity, and industries and regions.     

Re-evaluation of Welfare Changes during the Transition in Poland

The costs of shortages/rationing are not captured by standard consumer price indices. Thus the change in real GDP per capita is an over-estimate of welfare losses in transition economies. In this study virtual prices are used to calculate new cost of living indices, making it possible to construct more accurate pre-reform and post-reform welfare comparisons. The results for Poland using virtual prices show 62-84% decline in welfare over the transition 1987-92. This welfare loss is approximately one-third of the value obtained using actual prices.     

Changes in Income Distribution for Different Family Types in Poland

International Advances in Economic Research - This paper compares income distributions for the family types distinguished by the number of children. The primary contribution to the literature of...     

Happiness,religion and economic transition

In an important paper, Lelkes (2006) examines the impact of transition on happiness in Hungary using two Hungarian household survey datasets for the years 1992 and 1998. In particular, Lelkes examines the impact of religious behaviour on self‐reported well‐being. Using ordered logit models, Lelkes estimates and presents the marginal effect associated with membership in the highest ‘fully satisfied’ category, and finds that religious people have a consistently higher probability of being ‘fully satisfied’ than others. This effect is stable in the 1992 and 1998 samples. The goal of this article is to expand and extend Lelkes' earlier work in several ways. First, we use a different dataset. Second, we examine the effect of religious behaviour on well‐being after transition not only for Hungary, but also for Bulgaria, the Czech Republic, Poland and Slovakia. Third, unlike Lelkes, we have access to information indicating whether respondents report being financially better off after transition. With a different dataset, additional country samples, and a measure of financial well‐being, we are able to confirm and extend Lelkes' finding that religious behaviour is associated with improved well‐being after transition in all countries we examine.     

Human capital and life satisfaction in economic transition

This study explores the life satisfaction of Egyptians – with a particular focus on the impact of higher education on happiness – both before and after that country's Arab Spring of 2011. Ordered logit results point to positive and significant relationships between life satisfaction and both perceived high incomes and the human capital variable, good health, for the pre- and post-Arab Spring periods in Egypt, thus confirming prior studies of transition economies. For a second human capital variable – secondary education – the results indicate a positive and significant relationship with happiness in pre-Arab Spring Egypt, while that relationship for post-Arab Spring Egypt is negative and significant. This particular finding is probably the result of the failure of educated Egyptians to achieve a better life despite their investments in human capital – due to the lack of opportunity that accompanied the failure of the country's Arab Spring to change the political and social environment.     

Images of economic conditions in West Germany

With data from a December 1982 survey determinants of attitudes on general and personal economic conditions in West Germany are investigated. Such attitudes are differentiated into perceptions, evaluations, and expectations. Objective private living conditions, social background variables, regional economic context, and partisan affiliations are introduced as explanatory variables. Stepwise regression analysis is applied to estimate recursive models for endogenous variables. Apart from sizeable interrelations among components of individuals' images of economic conditions the findings indicate that evaluations and expectations of the private economic situation are strongly affected by social background and personal living conditions, whereas partisan sympathies mainly influence expectations of future general economic development.     

Do family resources matter? Educational attainment during transition in Poland*

We analyse the relationship between family background and children's educational attainment in the 1990s in Poland. If parental poverty affects children's educational prospects, the increase in social inequalities observed in the Polish transition process will be transmitted between generations. We apply an ordered probit model of educational attainment on longitudinal data from the Polish Labour Force Survey. Surprisingly, parents’ income and their labour market status have only a weak impact on children's education. Parents’ schooling, however, is strongly related to children's, and so are household structure, city size, and region of residence. We conclude that, if transmission of inequality takes place between generations, this seems to be primarily caused by the inheritance of human capital rather than by pure wealth effects.     

Outsiders in economic integrationThe case of a transition economy

We use a spatial model of endogenous growth to investigate the likely impact of discriminatory integration between two advanced insider countries on their own welfare as well as on the welfare of an outsider transition economy. A first point is that, since convergence in per capita income levels depends on relative market access and local market size, piece-wise integration causes insider-outsider divergence. Nonetheless, outsiders can gain in absolute terms if integration fosters the global growth rate. We also show that exclusion from a regional agreement and on-going transition have unpredictable joint effects on the structural adjustment, which might even exhibit a swinging behaviour. Such swings may imply large adjustment costs, which can be reduced by careful integration design. With this respect, the asymmetric phasing-out of trade barriers built into the Europe Agreements seems to work in the right direction. Finally, we point out that the predictions of the model in terms of direct investment and terms-of-trade dynamics are broadly consistent with some actual developments in transition economies.