Energy consumption of urban households in China

We estimate China urban household energy demand as part of a complete system of consumption demand so that it can be used in economy-wide models. This allows us to derive cross-price elasticities unlike studies which focus on one type of energy. We implement a two-stage approach and explicitly account for electricity, domestic fuels and transportation demand in the first stage and gasoline, coal, LPG and gas demand in the second stage. We find income inelastic demand for electricity and home energy, but the elasticity is higher than estimates in the rich countries. Demand for total transportation is income elastic. The price elasticity for electricity is estimated to be −0.5 and in the range of other estimates for China, and similar to long-run elasticities estimated for the U.S.     

A Dual-Price Demand Theory for Economies under Transition

China adopted a dual-price system shortly after the economic reform started in 1978 to liberalise its price control. This led to the coexistence of both plan and market prices for an identical good in the economy. The conventional demand theory developed based on the pure market economies is not useful in explaining consumers' behaviour in the transitional economies such as China in which both plan and market prices are prevalent. This study develops an alternative demand theory for a dual-price (or dual-track) economy and derives the dual-price Slusky equation that identifies a replacement effect of price liberalisation. This demand theory distinguishes itself from the conventional demand theory and explains the ways in which consumers respond to the price liberalisation during the reform period. The new demand theory shows that the gradual approach to reform is superior to the ‘Big Bang’ approach in terms of reducing the ‘corrected inflation’ during the transition period. The new theory also suggests that the price elasticity of demand is higher in the dual-track system than that in a full market economy, implying that the price elasticity diminishes over the process of price liberalisation. This theory is tested using the Chinese aggregate consumption data.     

我国城镇居民商品需求价格弹性的估计

通过将消费率变量引入到弗里希的需求价格弹性估计方法中,经过数理推导,获得了需求价格弹性估计的方程组。研究发现:就需求自价格弹性而言,商品需求受自身价格的影响程度最大,而受其他商品价格的影响程度较小。随着收入组等级提高,商品需求对其价格变化的反映更为敏感。就需求交叉价格弹性而言,食品价格对其他商品的影响程度最大。随着收入等级提高,食品价格对其他商品的影响程度不断下降。     

Foodcrop Demand in Indonesia: A Systems Approach

Aggregate agricultural commodity demand parameters are estimated, based on an application of the Deaton and Muellbauer Almost Ideal Demand System to a seventeen year Indonesian time-series data set of prices, expenditures and consumption availability. The statistical results are generally significant and correctly signed. The revealed demand relationships imply that the Indonesian food Staples are normal goods. Expenditure elasticities are higher for the higher value foodstuffs than for the lower value starchy staples. Furthermore, the demand for rice has become highly inelastic to both own and cross-price interventions. This implies that rice price interventions will require a high degree of fine-tuning in order to stabilise prices effectively, and that low urban rice prices cannot be regarded as an appropriate, or even second best policy instrument for improving nutritional status.

A high degree of Substitution between rice and secondary food crops, and amongst groups of secondary food crops, is identified. The significance of the cross-price elasticities for the secondary food crops suggests that single-market interventions will have non-trivial budget-mediated effects in other commodity markets. The management of a multi-commodity food policy requires that the spillover effects from commodity pricing policy must be taken into account in order to optimise the effects of price policy interventions.     

Housing demand in Shanghai: A discrete choice approach

In this study we apply a random utility modeling framework to analyze housing demand in the city of Shanghai. A Multinomial Logit Model taking account of latent choice sets is employed to investigate the impact of household characteristics, such as income, size and age composition, on the choice of dwelling, specified by location, size and unit price. In addition to the price and income effects on housing demand, the model identifies a quality indicator for dwelling attributes, which can be interpreted as the mean attractiveness in a money metric measure.The data used in this study are cross-sectional survey data. The estimated model is used to calculate demand elasticities and demand probabilities, for selected groups of households and types of dwellings. Among the results can be noted that the price–income ratios, the age composition and size of household are all important determinants of the demand. The impact of income distribution on housing demand is also studied.     

我国大米的供需态势:由库存与消费观察

采用多市场均衡模型,测算我国大米供给、需求以及库存方面的价格和非价格弹性,并对大米的生产、需求及库存量进行了预测。结果显示,大米单产的短期弹性为0.046,大米种植面积的短期弹性为0.161。农村和城市地区大米需求价格弹性分别为-0.115和-0.140,需求收入弹性分别为-0.157和-0.216。对大米产需及库存量预测显示,未来5～10年间,我国大米的总产量呈缓慢增长趋势,总消费量呈下降趋势,库存量保持平稳。     

Price elasticities of key agricultural commodities in China

We estimate a simultaneous equations model of Chinese agricultural markets for wheat, rice, corn, pork, and poultry meat. Elasticities are estimated for consumption, feed demand, production, stocks demand, and foreign demand or supply faced in China. While commodity models are estimated using ITSUR in a single commodity simultaneous equations framework, an AIDS model of food demand is estimated using ITSUR as a system covering all commodities. Results fall within the wide range of results from previous studies, and are quite reasonable magnitudes. China has market power in the trade for all five commodities under study.     

What Determines China's Grain Imports and Self‐sufficiency? The Role of Rising Domestic Costs and Varying World Market Prices

China's grain sectors have faced unprecedented challenges in recent years as the ever‐increasing and historically high level of grain output has failed to reduce grain imports. On the contrary, high grain imports and high domestic stock have accompanied historically high domestic output, a situation dubbed the “triple high” phenomenon in current policy discussion. This paper explores the role of widening domestic–world market price gaps in determining the triple high phenomenon. Unlike earlier studies that relied on production capacities, this paper argues that domestic production and demand (hence imports) are functions of domestic and world market prices and proposes an analytical framework to explicitly capture such price gaps under restricted trade linkages in general equilibrium. Following this approach, a set of price scenarios for the 2011–2020 period are constructed and simulated in a computable general equilibrium model. Results from the core scenarios, in which recent domestic and world market price trends are assumed to continue, suggest that further widening price gaps would substantially increase grain imports and reduce domestic output (by 60 million tons) and self‐sufficiency ratios from base levels. In the alternative scenarios with larger (smaller) price gaps, we find higher (lower) imports and larger (smaller) decreases in domestic output and self‐sufficiency ratios. Such results provide important policy implications as China's agricultural policy undergoes significant adjustment.     

Demand for kerosene in developing countries: A case of Indonesia

This paper attempts to examine the determinants of kerosene consumption in Indonesia. Derived from annual data for the period 1957–1992, the statistical results suggest that in addition to the past conditions, the price of kerosene, price elasticity, and the per capita income are the main determinants of kerosene consumption in Indonesia. The estimated cross-elasticity value with respect to the price of elasticity implies that electricity is a weak substitute for kerosene.     

农产品价格影响因素的文献综述

理清近年来农产品价格大幅度上涨的原因对于建立农产品目标价格制度显得尤为重要。从国别视角出发来对现有关于农产品价格影响因素的研究进行了综述,其中国内因素视角分为农产品生产成本、城乡居民收入、货币供给量、国内通货膨胀四个小专题,国际因素视角分为国际农产品价格、国际石油价格、汇率、其他外部因素四个小专题。最后指出,影响农产品价格的因素主要还是供求状况,其他因素要么是通过影响农产品的供求来影响价格,要么对农产品价格的影响程度不大,或者是不同学者得出了不同的结论。     

房价压力会刺激文化消费吗?

文章应用CFPS2010、2012、2014年的调查数据,以房价收入比指数作为"房价压力"的代理变量,探讨了房价压力对文化消费的影响机制。在我国房价收入比畸高的社会环境下,消费者同时受到"释放压力型"消费需求的驱使和可支配收入减少的预算约束,为了缓解生活压力,获得心理慰藉,增加了对相对廉价且非必需的文化消费品的需求,即口红效应成为房价压力影响文化消费的传导机制。研究发现：控制户主受教育水平、家庭其他生活压力、地区经济发展水平和文化消费氛围等因素,在城镇中仅拥有一套及以下住房资产的家庭中,高"房价压力"显著提升了居民文化消费需求。在影响机制研究中,首先,通过验证房价压力对总消费的抑制作用剥离了财富效应的影响,其次,通过验证房价压力对大额消费品和小额消费品影响的异质性,证实了房价压力对文化消费影响口红效应的存在性。进一步将研究样本按照消费文化类型、收入阶层和受教育阶层分组后发现：开放的消费文化下高"房价压力"对居民文化消费的促进作用更强,中等收入阶层在高"房价压力"下进行"释放压力型"文化消费的需求最强烈。高学历层次居民在面对"房价压力"时更倾向选择文化消费作为释放压力的渠道。     

Food Demand Characteristics in Uganda: Estimation and Policy Relevance

Uganda was highly successful in reducing poverty over the past two decades but made little progress towards household food security. This underlines the need for designing food security interventions customised for household‐specific needs and behaviours. This study estimates Ugandan household demand behaviour with a focus on food consumption paying particular attention to household‐specific characteristics. The results show that preferences to increase calorie‐dense staple consumption, likely associated with food energy deficiency, extend far beyond the percentage of rural Ugandans officially deemed poor. Price elasticities indicate that poor rural households are largely well positioned to compensate staple price increases by substitution as long as they are not already concentrated on the cheapest foods. This flexibility applies less to urban households. The estimated demand elasticities generally vary widely between rural and urban households and depend on expenditure levels. Household‐specific characteristics have significant, sometimes pronounced, influences on demand, as do seasons and regions. The results reflect highly differentiated demand behaviour, which can be utilised to improve the design and evaluation of food security interventions.     

物联网服务市场潜在需求的影响因素分析——基于智能家居服务市场的问卷调查

文章基于市场需求理论和技术接受模型,构建了物联网服务市场潜在需求的影响模型.基于智能家居服务市场的问卷调查数据,对模型进行模拟运算.结果表明,消费者对物联网服务的潜在需求,由消费者的需求意愿和支付能力决定;消费者对物联网服务的需求意愿,由消费者的感知有用性、感知价值决定;消费者对物联网服务的感知价值,由消费者的感知有用性、感知易用性、感知价格决定.根据上述研究结果,为促进物联网服务市场的消费需求,一要增强物联网服务的有用性和易用性,创造物联网服务需求;二要降低物联网服务价格、提升消费者的支付能力,满足消费者的物联网服务需求.     

当前新疆农产品供求及价格形势的基本判断与对策建议

当前防止价格由结构性上涨演变为明显通货膨胀的任务依然艰巨,其中保证农产品供求平衡和价格平稳是稳定价格总水平的关键点。本文从国际国内宏观背景下分析了今后农产品供求关系将由总量平衡、丰年有余向农产品总量供给长期偏紧、农产品价格持续高位运行的格局转变。同时分析了影响农产品价格上涨的因素,提出了增加农产品供给和稳定农产品价格的对策建议。     

Household Grain Consumption in China: Effects of Income,Price and Urbanization

The objectives of this study of household grain consumption in China are to update previous estimates of consumption parameters, to look at the effect of urbanization on grain consumption and to compare household demand patterns across the region. Household grain consumption is divided into two categories: direct and indirect grain consumption. Demand systems are estimated for four consumer groups, rural, town, city and large city, respectively, using data from the 1991 rural and urban household surveys undertaken by China's State Statistical Bureau. The impact on grain consumption of income, price and urbanization is particularly elaborated.     

Private-Pay Demand for Nursing Facilities in a Market with Excess Capacity

Several researchers have modeled the demand for nursing-home care by private-pay patients in markets with excess demand. This paper examines private-pay demand using 2002 data from Texas, a large market where most nursing facilities are underutilized. The demand for private nursing-home care increases with facility size, per-capita income, and the percent of population at least 65 years old. On the other hand, private-care demand decreases in nursing homes operated for profit and in facilities facing greater competition. The price elasticity of demand for private care is estimated to be −0.69. These results are statistically significant at the 10 percent level or better in regressions estimated by instrumental variables using the full sample as well as a sample from which probable outliers have been removed. However, the relationship of demand to the nursing home's case mix is statistically imprecise, and our measure of nursing staff per bed seems to be affected by outlying observations. The findings tend to support previous research showing that private-pay demand reflects economically rational decisions made by nursing-home residents and their representatives.     

THE DEMAND FOR FOOD IN SOUTH AFRICA1

Food consumption is an important issue in South Africa, given its relation to poverty and deprivation. With the pressing need to increase food security, understanding the determinants of the demand for food and having some estimates of the likely impact of price and income changes has become a vital task. There is, however, surprisingly little economic research on this topic and almost none in recent times. This paper provides a comprehensive empirical analysis of the demand for food in South Africa for the years 1970‐2002. It moves beyond the usual static modelling approach in using a general dynamic log‐linear demand equation and a dynamic version of the almost ideal demand system, to provide estimates of the short‐ and long‐run price and expenditure demand elasticities.     

Potential demand and external trade

Summary Both in theoretical and empirical studies of international trade relative prices play a dominant role. Standard international trade theory asserts that under certain conditions the price mechanism may lead to an equilibrium between demand for and supply of goods from and to different countries. For short periods, some relevant conditions may not be fulfilled; in that case other adjustments such as changes in non price conditions may equate demand and supply or, alternatively, disequilibria may exist. Direct statistical evidence on non price conditions, excess demand and excess supply is scarce.This paper describes a partly indirect approach of the not price conditioned trade fluctuations. The basic model assumes that these fluctuations are largely dependent on pressure of demand, which is defined as the tension between potential demand and potential supply. In this way both exports and imports are divided in a potential component, dependent on relative prices, and a pressure induced component. The other main assumption is that actual domestic demand changes according to the demand function. Combining these relations, potential demand for domestic products is the sum of domestic demand and potential export demand minus potential import demand. Potential supply is assumed to be a constant fraction of the exogeneously given production capacity.The model is used for an iterative approximation of the changes in potential demand and pressure of demand for the Netherlands. For this purpose estimations for actual exports and actual imports of commodities are derived from the model. In the initial estimations, potential demand is approximated by means of actual demand, during consecutive rounds the results of the preceding stages are used. After three rounds the coefficients are stable. The values calculated for the yearly changes in potential demand are for most years in concordance with a priori expectations. For the reference period, the explanatory power of the computed pressure of demand is either of about the same quality as that of conventional pressure variables or better.     

1995—2007年我国城镇居民消费需求的实证研究

文章利用1996-2008年《中国统计年鉴》提供的数据,运用扩展线性支出系统等模型对1995—2007年我国城镇居民的消费支出情况进行了总量和结构的实证分析,具体包括城镇居民的基本消费支出、主要消费项目的需求收入弹性以及需求分配系数。通过对上述指标的定量分析可以准确地把握我国城镇居民的消费支出结构以及总体变化趋势。研究结果表明1995—2007年我国城镇居民生活水平正从小康阶段向富裕阶段过渡,食品和衣着支出占总支出的比重不断下降。医疗卫生制度和住房制度改革以及教育产业政策对城镇居民人均消费影响很大,其中人均医疗保健支出增幅最高,文教娱乐和居住的支出增幅也大大超过城镇居民平均可支配收入的增幅。基于上述研究。文章提出了相关的政策建议。     

Environmental consequences of fuel price shocks in China

This study investigates the environmental consequences of fuel price shocks, using a rich dataset from the Chinese megacity of Hangzhou. Our identification strategy is mainly aided by instrumenting fuel price using exogenous global oil prices. We find that a 10% increase in fuel price leads to a 10.29%–11.45% decrease in driving demand, reflected by road congestion index, and a 17.6%–20.27% decrease in industrial activities, measured by electricity consumption. The decreases in driving demand and industrial activities are indeed correlated with air quality improvement and decline in major pollutant concentrations. While the findings shed light on the short-term environmental outcomes of price-based measures, the negative effects of fuel price increases on industrial activities may generate undesirable impacts on macroeconomy in the long-term perspective. Despite ample evidence demonstrating that drivers respond to fuel price changes, considerably fewer studies investigate their environmental and economic consequences. This study addresses this gap in the literature and contributes to a better understanding of the effects of fuel price shocks on air pollution and economic activities.