论新贸易理论发展对我国贸易发展的启示

几年来,国际贸易理论领域发生了重大的变革,基于古典经济学为理论基础的传统贸易理论已逐步让位于新贸易理论,拟从新贸易理论的出现和发展过程介绍了新国际贸易理论的政策主张和我国的国际贸易现状分析,探讨了新贸易理论对我国发展贸易政策改革的启示。指出发展中国家也有必要、并有可能结合自身条件和具体的市场结构特点,通过实施一定的"战略贸易政策",发挥各种类型的规模经济效益,以加速其本国产业结构升级与整体经济的增长。     

对我国现行外贸政策的反思与重新定位

随着世界经济的发展,外贸政策实施的国际和国内环境发生了明显的变化,其实施效果也发生了巨大的变化。首先,指出我国现行的具有重商主义性质的外贸政策(鼓励出口,限制进口)面临严峻的挑战;其次,对出口政策和进口政策及其作用进行了重新认识;最后,提出调整我国现行外贸政策的思路和具体建议:由外向型经济向内外互补型经济转变,构建资源安全贸易体系,外贸政策与外资政策相协调,外贸政策与产业政策相协调,构建战略型贸易保护政策。     

保护贸易理论的历史演变及其对中国的启示

本文系统地对保护贸易理论的历史发展变化过程进行了概括性的讲述。其发展主要由重商主义、近代的汉密尔顿"保护关税论"和李斯特"保护幼稚工业"理论、现代的凯恩斯"超贸易保护论"、普雷维什的"中心—外围"理论及战略性贸易理论等组成。这其中有许多观点、政策及建议等,都对发展我国社会主义市场经济有着重要的启发与作用。     

论美国外贸政策的战略调整

<正> 70年代中期以来,特别是80年代以来,美国的外贸政策发生了重大转折,即由二次战后竭力倡导自由贸易转而主张“公平贸易”、“对等贸易”、“管理贸易”等等。美国采取种种极富进攻性的贸易手段以限制进口,同时千方百计打入别国市场,其贸易政策具有明显的保护主义特征。显然,作为资本主义超级大国的美国的贸易政策发生重大战略调整,极大地影响了世界经济贸易秩序和格局的变化。本文拟对美国外贸政策调整     

贸易政策制定的政治经济学分析——基于我国工业行业数据的实证研究

如何科学制定贸易政策,决定着深度融入经济全球化和以开放促发展的我国,在国际贸易格局变化中自身经济的走向和未来命运。然而直至目前,国内学界对这一问题的深入研究却相对少见。藉此本文立足政治经济学框架,基于我国国体和新型市场经济体制所特有的"三维"贸易政策制定决策机制,拓展Tovar(2009)模型使之适用于我国国情,在分析损失规避心理对决策行为影响的同时,采用1999-2010年我国工业行业面板数据,来实证研究和检验若干理论假定的真实性与显著性,以及中美两国在贸易保护倾向上的差异,从而证实促使我国贸易政策妥善制定和有效实施的内在机理。并且由此提出深入推进我国供给侧改革的相关政策建议。     

战略性贸易政策在发展中国家适用的实证分析——以从印度软件产业的发展为例

战略性贸易政策最早兴起于西方发达国家,其实质是贸易保护政策。本文以战略性贸易政策是否在发展中国家适用为主线,分析了发展中国家实施战略性贸易政策应具备的赵束条件,并以印度软件业为例,对印度软件业实施战略性贸易政策进行绩效分析。最后,结合我国实际,指出今后我国贸易政策选择的方向。     

WTO贸易救济制度的政治经济学分析

在当前金融危机的背景下,反倾销、反补贴、保障措施等贸易救济措施的贸易保护性质在实践中不断得到加强,并已演变成为重要的贸易保护工具和维护国内特定产业利益的有效手段,其矫正作用已经被扭曲了。本文运用新政治经济学的"公共选择"理论探讨了WTO贸易救济政策供给的动因,揭示了目前国外对我国实施贸易救济措施的政治经济原因。     

自由贸易全球化背景下的专利平行进口研究

专利产品的平行进口是全球贸易及知识产权中最有争议的问题之一,同时也是贸易自由化与知识产权国际保护之间冲突的产物。本文从20世纪90年代发生于日本的专利平行进口的典型案例——"BBS铝制车轮案"出发研究这个法律问题,通过对专利平行进口的相关法律理论和司法实践的分析,提出完善我国相关法律制度的建议,并认为默示许可原则才是我国的最佳选择。     

不同贸易保护政策的进口抑制效应分析--基于反倾销与监管条件的比较

文章通过面板数据分析检验了反倾销与各种监管条件对进口量抑制的效果。发现反倾销初裁、终裁对进口的抑制效果低于反倾销税率的效果,进一步发现同时存在反倾销与多种监管条件的商品贸易保护效应明显。同时通过对比不同监管条件的抑制效应发现进口许可证的抑制效应尤为明显。而实施一项监管条件大约可以降低10%的进口量,而1%的反倾销税大概降低0.5%的进口量,并且高反倾销税与监管条件同时实行对进口有递减的抑制作用。故两者间存在等价替换关系。针对我国不同行业可以找到适合的贸易保护政策,通过它们对进口量抑制的等价关系与成本估算进行更好的权衡取舍,从而中国能充分运用贸易保护政策在世界贸易博弈格局中不落下风。     

我国实施战略性贸易政策的产业选择

战略性贸易政策是发达国家于20世纪七八十年代实施的主要国际贸易政策之一,而战略性贸易政策实施的关键和难点在于战略性产业和目标的选择。本文在分析战略性贸易政策理论和国际实施经验的基础上,提出我国实施战略性贸易政策产业选择的标准。     

批发贸易演进及发展规律研究

本文从世界贸易发展史出发,立足于马克思主义政治经济学,以时间为序,史论结合,分别就古代、前资本主义时期以及资本主义发展的不同历史阶段批发贸易的产生、发展的环境因素和演进规律进行了全程梳理和深入分析,一方面试图填补国内批发商品流通史学研究这一始终存在的空白,另一方面也希望能为新时期重振批发流通进而优化商品流通体系的政策取向提供有益的启示。     

Concepts of price fairness: empirical research into the Dutch coffee market

This paper researches perceptions of the concept of price fairness in the Dutch coffee market. We distinguish four alternative standards of fair prices based on egalitarian, basic rights, capitalistic and libertarian approaches. We investigate which standards are guiding the perceptions of price fairness of citizens and coffee trade organizations. We find that there is a divergence in views between citizens and key players in the coffee market. Whereas citizens support the concept of fairness derived from the basic rights approach, holding that the price should provide coffee farmers with a minimum level of subsistence, representatives of Dutch coffee traders hold the capitalistic view that the free world market price is fair.     

Measuring Effects of Trade Policy Distortions: How Far Have We Come?

After a brief review of the literature to the early 1970s, this paper assesses the contributions by economists during the past three decades to measuring the distortionary effects of trade policies. It does not pretend to be a comprehensive survey, but draws on selections from the literature that give a sense of the distance the profession has travelled from a trade policy practitioner's viewpoint since Corden's first paper on the subject in 1957. Phenomenal though that progress has been, there is ample room for further improvement in computing the economic (and other) effects of trade‐related policies and their reform. The paper concludes with suggestions of where the priorities should be in global modelling of trade policy reform, as the world moves into the next round of multilateral trade negotiations.     

Trade Policy and the Obama Administration

During his primary campaign, President Obama took an aggressive stance on trade, suggesting a protectionist drift in U.S. trade policy. However, it seems more likely that policy will focus more on enforcement of existing rights than on protectionist initiatives. The major influences on trade policy are likely to be multilateral approaches to trade problems, broad foreign policy concerns, the impact of trade policy on recovery from the current recession, and global climate change initiatives. Holdover initiatives on the World Trade Organization's Doha round and bilateral agreements will be joined by global climate change as the principal policy issues for the next few years.     

Autocracy,democracy and trade policy

This paper develops a politico-economic model for use in studying the role of intra-elite conflict in the simultaneous determination of a country's political regime, trade policy and income-tax-based redistribution scheme. Three socioeconomic groups are involved: two elite groups and workers, whose preferences regarding trade policy and income taxation are derived from a simple open-economy model. The critical point is that income taxation induces a rich–poor/elite–workers political cleavage, while trade policy opens the door to intra-elite conflict. In this model, when there is no intra-elite conflict, changes in trade policy are associated with political transitions. Coups (democratizations) open up the economy if and only if both elite groups are pro-free-trade (protectionist). However, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, autocracies respond to popular revolts by changing trade policy and reallocating political power within the elite (to the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers) rather than offering to democratize the country. The change in trade policy is credible because the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers controls the autocracy. Moreover, in the presence of intra-elite conflict, coups tend to result in the maintenance of the existing trade policy unless popular demands are extremely radical and/or the elite group with the same trade policy preference as the workers is exceptionally weak.     

Carbon,Trade Policy and Carbon Free Trade Areas

This paper discusses both the potential contribution that trade policy initiatives can make towards the achievement of significant global carbon emissions reduction and the potential impacts of proposals now circulating for carbon reduction motivated geographical trade arrangements, including carbon‐free trade areas. We first suggest that trade policy is likely to be a relatively minor consideration in climate change containment. The dominant influence on carbon emissions globally for the next several decades will be growth more than trade and its composition, and in turn, the size of trade seemingly matters more than its composition given differences in emission intensity between tradables and non‐tradables. We then note that differences in emissions intensity across countries are larger than across products or sectors and so issues of country discrimination in trade policy (and violations of MFN) arise. We next discuss both unilateral and regional carbon motivated trade policy arrangements, including three potential variants of carbon emission reduction based free trade area arrangements. One is regional trade agreements with varying types of trade preferences towards low carbon‐intensive products, low carbon new technologies and inputs to low carbon processes. A second is the use of joint border measures against third parties to counteract anti‐competitive effects from groups of countries taking on deeper emission reduction commitments. A third is third‐country trade barriers along with free trade or other regional trade agreements as penalty mechanisms to pressure other countries to join emission‐reducing environmental agreements. We differentiate among the objectives, forms and possible impacts of each variant. We also speculate as to how the world trading system may evolve in the next few decades as trade policy potentially becomes increasingly dominated by environmental concerns. We suggest that the future evolution of the trading system will likely be with environmentally motivated arrangements acting as an overlay on prevailing trade and financial arrangements in the WTO and IMF, and eventually movement to linked global trade and environmental policy bargaining.     

日本贸易发展变化及新政策下贸易发展趋势

战后日本经济的快速发展离不开日本贸易的发展,战后日本把"贸易立国"作为"不变国策"。然而2012年末安倍再次担任首相,并于2013年制定了安倍经济政策,其政策的实施在短期内对日本经济起到了复苏的效果,但对日本贸易并未起到拉动作用,2013年日本贸易额下降,贸易逆差继续加大。今后日本贸易的发展将通过扩大对外开放、增大技术创新投入、加快区域合作等方式实现。     

重商,还是抑商?——新重商主义背景下对于重商主义商业观的历史分析

在经济思想史的传统框架中,重商主义被视为一种强调商品经济发展的经济理论。特朗普就任美国总统以来,通过经济政策上回归重商主义,利用一系列的贸易保护和就业保护政策以实现再工业化,从而导致新重商主义在全球经济领域复苏。通过对于重商主义经济思想的回溯与分析,本文发现,作为一门民族国家的经济发展理论,重商主义虽然在政策上强调行政干预和政府垄断,在商业史观上强调对商品贸易的管制,但其政策效果对于制造业的发展却优先于商业经济发展;不但没有把商业经济纳入国家经济发展的核心动力,反而在较长的时间内抑制了商业贸易的发展,显得重商主义名不符实。重商主义作为资本主义经济成长初期的重要经济理论,更多地表现为追求国家经济崛起、财政收入增长的国家发展主义,其价值绝非简单的封闭保护主义。在今天经济全球化分工的体系下,所谓的新重商主义更多地表现为以贸易保护为名的贸易单边主义和霸凌主义,其与重商主义时代扶持民族幼稚产业成长、构筑民族产业体系的政策目标大不相同。     

Estimating the Impact of Currency Unions on Trade: Solving the Glick and Rose Puzzle

Does leaving a currency union reduce international trade? This paper uses a historical approach to re‐examine the puzzling large apparent impact of currency unions on trade. I find that the early time series estimates were driven by the gradual decaying of colonial trade ties and other major geopolitical factors, including warfare, communist takeovers and ethnic cleansing episodes. My methodology, which carries lessons for other uses of gravity equations in policy analysis, yields point estimates of currency unions on trade that are not statistically distinct from zero.     

李嘉图国际贸易理论的新兴古典分析--交易效率、偏好对国际贸易的影响

李嘉图的比较成本理论作为国际贸易理论不可动摇的基础,具有重要的理论价值。而新兴古典贸易理论的发展,为解释国内贸易和国际贸易提供了一个统一的理论框架。其核心在于该理论独特的分析工具:超边际分析方法。采用新兴古典经济学的超边际分析方法,引入交易效率和偏好,对李嘉图的国际贸易理论进行新的分析,可以得出很多有价值的结论。本文通过建立同时存在李嘉图外生比较技术差异和交易成本的新兴古典模型,探讨了交易效率和偏好对国际贸易的影响。为贸易政策的制定提供了理论依据。一国在制定对外贸易政策时,应从改变交易效率、偏好结构的角度出发,制定有利于本国的贸易政策,从而改善其外贸条件,进一步促进其国际贸易的发展。