Is it too late to stabilise the global climate?

Assessment of the feasibility of stabilising the global climate requires consideration of trajectories for emissions of carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases. This study presents a simple and robust analysis of feasible emissions trajectories. Consideration of feasible trajectories suggests that if the current pace of mitigation efforts is sustained, the likely outcome will be stabilisation at concentrations close to 500 parts per million. Such an outcome will imply a higher than 50 per cent probability of substantial damage from climate change and an enhanced risk of a catastrophic outcome.     

TRQ‐complications: who gets the benefits when the EU liberalizes Mercosur's access to the beef markets?

The European Union (EU) and the Mercosur countries resumed negotiations on trade liberalization in May 2010 after several years of interruption. The article analyzes who stands to benefit and who is likely to lose if the EU liberalizes Mercosur's access to domestic beef markets. This economic assessment is performed using a partial equilibrium model for beef operating at a low level of product aggregation, paying specific attention to the role of Tariff Rate Quotas (TRQs). Consultations with experts from the meat sector allowed us to identify the allocation of the quota rents to different stakeholders. Under an agreement based on the EU's negotiation proposal, trade impacts are projected to be small due to the present quota overfill. As expected, impacts are more pronounced under the conditions set out in Mercosur's proposal. The results confirm that the distribution of quota rents can be decisive in determining welfare effects.     

Is it Possible to Utilise the Agricultural Potential of Ukraine under the Current Agrarian System?

The government of Ukraine aims to transform the country into an ‘agricultural superpower at the international level’ with the hope that the sector will gain high foreign currency earnings and become ‘the engine of national economic development’. The large agribusiness corporations have willingly responded to these calls. However, placing hope solely in the corporate sector is inadequate as the key role of agriculture to create business diversity and achieve rural social and environmental objectives will remain unfulfilled. Many other national economies have experienced ‘the offensive’ of capital on agriculture during the twentieth century, with associated negative consequences, thus encouraging them to adopt more balanced agrarian policies which benefit the whole rural population. Utilisation of Ukrainian agricultural potential as an economic growth engine requires a fundamental change in the interpretation of its purpose, which is currently focused on profit‐making export‐oriented commercial activity. The multifunctional nature of the sector needs to be emphasised, the purpose of which is not only the production of agricultural and food products, but also the creation of public benefits, such as the development opportunities and means for existence for 14 million Ukrainian rural inhabitants, maintenance of ecological balance, regeneration of soil fertility and preservation of rural landscapes.     

Worth the Risk? The Behavioural Path to Well‐Being

There is increasing interest in the ‘economics of happiness’, reflected in the volume of articles appearing in mainstream economics journals exploring the major determinants of self‐reported well‐being. We contribute by exploring the factors influencing how satisfied farmers are with their quality of life. We find that farm income, subjective perceptions relating to the adequacy of household income, debt, health and personal characteristics such as age and relationship status are significantly associated with farmers’ self‐reported life satisfaction. While significantly associated with farm income, farm structural variables such as farm size, farm type and the presence of a farm successor were not found to be significantly related with life satisfaction. Our results also suggest that farmers who are more risk averse enjoy significantly lower levels of both life satisfaction and farm income than their more risk seeking or risk neutral counterparts. We suggest that, in the same way that risk aversion inhibits farmers from making choices that could lead to an increase in their income, it may also constrain farmers (and the wider public at large) from engaging in certain types of behaviours that could lead to an increase in their self‐reported quality of life. Finally, we find that while farm income is significantly related to self‐reported life satisfaction, the direct correlation between these variables is weak, suggesting that farmer life satisfaction can be distinct from business success.     

Where in the world is it cheapest to cut carbon emissions?*

Countries with low marginal costs of abating carbon emissions may have high total costs, and vice versa, for a given climate mitigation policy. This may help to explain different countries’ policy stances on climate mitigation. We hypothesize that, under a common percentage cut in emissions intensity relative to business as usual (BAU), countries with higher BAU emission intensities have lower marginal abatement costs, but total costs relative to output will be similar across countries, and under a common carbon price, relative total costs are higher in emission‐intensive countries. Using the results of the 22nd Energy Modeling Forum (EMF‐22), we estimate marginal abatement cost curves for the US, EU, China and India, which we use to estimate marginal and total costs of abatement under a number of policy options currently under international debate. This analysis provides support for our hypotheses, although its reliability is limited by the shortcomings of the EMF‐22 models and the degree to which our econometric model can adequately account for the substantial differences among them.     

Did Pressler fully understand how to use the indicator per cent?

A classical problem in forest economics is the determination of the optimal rotation age. It is commonly acknowledged that Martin Faustmann and Max Robert Pressler contributed the most to the solution of this problem. Faustmann formulated the renowned land expectation value formula, which laid the foundation for economic analyses of the optimal rotation problem. He also provided several hints on how to correctly solve the problem. Pressler's work focused on the growth of the capital in a forest stand. He invented the concept of Indicator Per Cent, and argued that the Indicator Per Cent should be used to guide forestry decision-making. Pressler correctly stated how to use the Indicator Per Cent to determine when a stand should be harvested. However, his suggestions about the choice among silviculture options indicate that he did not fully understand the economic implication of the Indicator Per Cent.     

Constraints to the sustainability of a ‘systematised’ approach to livestock marketing amongst smallholder cattle producers in South Africa

Commercialization of smallholder agriculture in South Africa is underpinned by reforms to improve livestock off-take in communal areas and engage smallholder farmers with formal markets. To achieve this, Custom Feeding Programmes (CFPs) were established to improve the condition of communal cattle prior to their sale into formal markets and to ‘systematise’ the informal marketing of cattle in communal areas by enabling participants to achieve higher informal market prices. We evaluate the sustainability of eight CFPs located in Eastern Cape Province in terms of their ability to add value to smallholder cattle production and encourage market participation. Communities with CFPs achieved a 16.6% mean cattle off-take rate, substantially higher than in most communal systems. Furthermore, cattle sold through CFPs attained a 17% higher mean selling price than those sold through other marketing channels. However, these benefits were mainly realized by better-off farmers with larger cattle herds and greater ability to transport animals to and from CFPs. More marginalized farmers, particularly women, had low participation. CFPs also face challenges to their sustainability, including inconsistent feed and water supplies, poor infrastructure and high staff turnover. Key to enhancing participation in CFPs, will be improving the way they are supported and embedded within communities.     

Introduction to the Special Feature: Will the BRIC Decade Continue? The Role of Rural Areas and Agriculture

This article provides an introduction to the special feature on agriculture‐related issues in the emerging economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China (BRIC) contained in this issue of Journal of Agricultural Economics. The special feature is motivated by the increased interest which these countries have received since the turn of the millennium and by the significance of agriculture in their development. It considers economic and social development in BRICs, their integration in world agricultural trade as well as environmental concerns. This article presents key figures on economic, social and agricultural features in BRICs and compares them across countries. A synthesis of the articles included in the special feature is provided by highlighting the selection of topics likely to be crucial for further development across BRICs.     

Sustainable rural communities? A legal perspective on the community right to buy

Sustainable development is the underlying policy behind the community right to buy land in rural Scotland enshrined in the Land Reform (Scotland) Act 2003, Part 2. The Act explicitly requires communities wishing to exercise the right to buy to have sustainable development at the heart of their community body and all their plans for the land. This paper examines the role and interpretation of sustainable development in the CRB. Since the Act was passed three administrations have headed up the Scottish government and sustainable development issues and strategies for Scotland have been aired in four important and distinctive policy documents showing that it is still very much an evolving concept in Scottish politics. The current administration has adopted the most econocentric approach yet seen in the UK, focusing on sustainable economic growth. Meanwhile, the community right to buy has developed its own sustainable development agenda. This review of decisions taken under the legislation illustrates that a diverse range of community ownership plans have been deemed consistent with sustainable development, from creation of sports facilities to preservation of castles, lighthouses and village greens. A range of economic, social and environmental objectives have been approved. On the other hand, communities that fail to adopt the ‘right’ approach to the principle will not be successful in using the legislation.     

Market Research for the Optimization of the Consumers Response to the Recent Award of a Protected Geographical Indication to a Local Product,Beans from “La Bañeza-León” (Spain)

Abstract

In Europe several low involvement food products with reduced productions have been awarded with a PGI or PDO during the last few years. The beans from La Bañeza-León (Spain) are an example of this and received a PGI in September 2005. The general objective was to appraise the effect that the award of the PGI to such kinds of food products has in consumers, in order to optimize the managerial and public policies, and to get maximum advantage from the PGI distinction in the commercialization of them. For low involvement products with PGI, the general guidelines should be to keep the prices as low as possible, to develop intensive public information campaigns about the award of the PGI, and to offer the product in medium or high involvement restaurants, in order to reach those consumers willing to pay more for the product, that are mainly in the age range of 36 to 45 years. It is also discussed that the PGI label would have more interest than a private brand. Specifically for beans from “La Bañeza-León,” the PGI Council should urgently tackle a promotional campaign about the product and the PGI award that should reach to most of the consumers in the target markets, taking into account that as the distance from the production area increases the knowledge of the product decreases. This campaign should help the consumer to clearly identify the beans from the PGI by using an attractive logo, and to inform them that the beans from the PGI are superior than substitutive beans in taste and cooking time. Finally, public campaigns that promote the consumption of beans among youth would be necessary.     

Limits to agri-environmental schemes uptake to mitigate human–wildlife conflict: lessons learned from Flamingos in the Camargue,southern France

Agri-environment schemes (AES) favouring the maintenance of hedges were implemented in the Camargue (southern France) as it has previously been proven to reduce the risk of damage caused by Greater Flamingo incursions into rice fields. Given the persistent incursions, we estimated the economic cost of damage from 2007 to 2009, the uptake rate of hedge-related AES and explored the limits of these schemes as a mitigation effort. Semi-structured and key informant interviews, site mapping and field visits were made to verify claims and estimate damage. Number of plants/m² and fertile stems/plant were estimated on 1,498 and 312 grids, respectively, spread over 26 rice fields. Damaged areas of rice fields forayed by flamingos presented from 1.35 to 3.06 t/ha lower yield than undamaged areas. We estimated 228€/ha average loss in forayed fields for a total of 400,000€ in yield loss in 2008. Administrative constraints limited AES and free seedlings distribution, preventing the problem from being addressed at an appropriate scale. The trivial financial support for hedge management relative to more lucrative AES with lower constraints resulted in low uptake rate. We propose that modifications of AES take into account landscape factors over administrative boundaries and that the financial support for AES be scaled up relative to other subsidies in order to address the efforts necessary to achieve landscape changes to reduce human–wildlife conflict.     

Does willingness to pay increase with the number and strictness of sustainability labels?

Labels signaling sustainable product attributes are gaining importance, although uncertainty concerning the environmental, micro‐ and macroeconomic benefits of such labels persist. One of the questions still incompletely answered is whether Willingness To Pay (WTP) varies with a gradually increasing number of labels on a food product. In order to answer this question, we conducted a laboratory experiment with 191 student respondents, testing consumer valuations of different labeling strategies. Using the Becker‐DeGroot‐Marschak mechanism, WTP for 15 food products was measured. The products were endowed with up to six different sustainability labels, such that each grocery item was available in eight product versions. For perishable, nonperishable, and plant‐based products, the results indicate that participants are prone to allocating WTP‐premiums to labeled products, more than to unlabeled products. For animal products, however, labels do not influence WTP significantly. Furthermore, the premiums do not vary with an increasing number of labels, irrespective of whether the labels signal substitute or complementary sustainability information. The results are not entirely in line with normative notions of magnitude variation, but rather with the behavioral economic concept of embedding effects.     

Deregulation of the Australian Wheat Export Market: What Happened to Wheat Prices?

ABSTRACT

This report investigates whether deregulation of the Australian wheat export market induced a structural change in the price data generation process. We analyze the unit root properties of Western Australian wheat price series by testing for the possibility of single and double structural breaks. Daily spot prices for the period of May 20, 2003, to September 14, 2010 are used. We find the wheat price series has a unit root with two structural breaks but neither breaks coincides with the time when the Wheat Export Marketing Act 2008 came into effect on July 1, 2008. The implication of our results is that deregulation was not the main cause of structural breaks in the price series in the sample period.     

Does Spatial Dependence Affect the Intention to Make Land Available for Bioenergy Crops?

We find spatial dependence in landowners’ stated intentions to make land available for bioenergy crops. Our data are generated from a contingent valuation survey of 599 owners of marginal land in southern Michigan. Employing a Bayesian framework and using these spatially explicit data, we estimate and compare non‐spatial probit and spatial Durbin probit models to examine the presence of spatial dependence in land rental intentions. Results show that intentions to rent land for bioenergy crop production are spatially dependent. This spatial dependence arises both from the land supply intentions of nearby landowners and from spatial spillover effects of landowner characteristics and attitudes towards environmental amenities and the disamenities of land rental. We show that ignoring spatial dependence in the intentions of neighbouring landowners to participate in land rental markets for bioenergy feedstocks can lead to distortions that underestimate total effects. Our finding implies that studies of land use and crop supply should test for spatial interactions in order to make accurate inferences.     

Are Russian Wheat Exporters Able to Price Discriminate? Empirical Evidence from the Last Decade

Significant changes have taken place in the world wheat market in the last decade. Russia, a former net wheat importer, has become a leading exporter with a world market share of 11.2% in 2009. This increasing importance and the discussion about the establishment of a grain‐OPEC consisting of Ukraine, Kazakhstan and Russia has raised the issue of pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters. Although there are several studies on the pricing behaviour of Canadian and US wheat exporters, there is none so far for Russian wheat exporters. This study provides a quantitative analysis of the pricing behaviour of Russian wheat exporters, explicitly taking account of the export tax imposed between 2007 and 2008. We employ a pricing‐to‐market (PTM) model on quarterly Russian wheat‐export data, covering the period from 2002 to 2010 and 25 export destinations. Our findings indicate that (i) Russian wheat exporters exercised PTM in only a few importing countries over the whole time period, and (ii) PTM behaviour was more pronounced in the aftermath of the export tax period (i.e. 2008–2010) than before.     

Foreign Aid and the Quest for Poverty Reduction: Is Aid to Agriculture Effective?

Development statistics estimate that three quarters of the poor live in rural areas and most of them depend on agriculture and related activities for their livelihood. Consequently, research focusing on economic growth and poverty reduction has found that sustainable rapid transition out of poverty requires a special emphasis on the agricultural sector. This study contributes to the debate on aid effectiveness by disaggregating total aid into subcategories and specifically investigating the relationship between aid given to the agricultural sector and poverty reduction. If agricultural development is more effective in reducing poverty than some other types of development, then foreign aid directed towards agriculture may be more efficient in increasing the well‐being of the poor than aid directed to some other sectors or uses. Our analysis uses panel data for developing aid recipient countries to empirically test this relationship. We find a significant relationship between agricultural aid and poverty reduction in our estimates.     

Is a slowdown in agricultural productivity growth contributing to the rise in commodity prices?

A slowdown in the rate of agricultural productivity growth is thought by many observers to be contributing to the recent rise in agricultural prices. In this article I decompose sources of output growth in global agriculture into aggregate input and total factor productivity (TFP) components and examine whether productivity growth slowed substantially in the years leading up to the recent rise in commodity prices. Contrary to widely held perceptions, I find no evidence of a general slowdown in sector‐wide agricultural TFP, at least through 2006. If anything, the growth rate in agricultural TFP accelerated in recent decades. However, the results do show a slowdown in the growth of agricultural investment. Accelerating TFP growth largely offset decelerating input growth to keep the real output of global agriculture growing at about 2% per year since the 1960s. Regionally, however, agricultural productivity performance has been uneven. These findings have important implications for the appropriate supply‐side policy response to the current agricultural price crisis.     

Does ‘Protection for Sale’ Apply to the US Food Industries?

This paper tests the Protection for Sale model in terms of the structure of protection and how realistic the estimated domestic welfare weight is relative to campaign contributions. Using data from US food manufacturing, empirical results support the key predictions for the structure of protection when either all food manufacturing industries or most of the general population is assumed to be politically organised. The domestic welfare weight is estimated as low as 0.837, the lowest econometric estimate to date, underlining that protection is for sale and that, with a qualified ‘yes’, the model fits the data for these industries.     

Can life cycle assessment be used to evaluate plant breeding objectives to improve supply chain sustainability? A worked example using porridge oats from the UK

The challenge for agricultural production in the 21st century is to produce sufficient high-quality food whilst minimizing impact. Life cycle assessment (LCA) can help by identifying the parts of a supply chain with the greatest environmental impact, and to determine which technologies – for example plant breeding – may be most appropriately employed to minimize negative impacts. A ‘plough-to-plate’ LCA of a porridge oat production chain was undertaken using data that corresponds to the inputs and outputs of an indicative supply chain. The greatest environmental impact of the porridge oats life cycle occurs in crop production and cooking. There are traits for oats that are available for manipulation by plant breeders, which can influence these areas; these include yield, nitrogen use efficiency and beta-glucan content. Therefore plant breeding may be a useful strategy for improving the sustainability of the crop. However LCA cannot be a definitive tool to guide plant breeding and therefore this approach needs to compliment others. Nevertheless this study highlights that porridge oat supply chain sustainability would benefit from an integrated effort stretching from the geneticist to consumer; a finding that is likely to be relevant to other food supply chains.