债务期限结构、流动性与公共债务管理

本文研究中国公共债务期限结构管理如何实现中央和地方两级政府债务融资效率性与稳定性的统一。我们的理论模型证明,当前地方政府融资平台和一些具有准政府性质的国有经济部门的短期债务融资在未来发生流动性冲击时会导致资产降价销售和负的社会外部性。基于资产组合理论和比较优势原理,我们提出中央和地方债务融资的利率互换方式以及债务期限结构优化管理的基本原则,并且对地方政府不同融资模式的经济效应和治理效应进行了简要的比较分析。     

Financial Frictions and Risky Corporate Debt

We offer clarifications on Cooley and Quadrini (2001) regarding financial frictions and risky corporate debt pricing. Even in a frictionless world, the promised rate on corporate debt is not identical across firms and across capital structures and it is not equal to the risk-free rate. Frictions are unnecessary for credit spreads to arise. Only if the macroeconomy is in actuality risk free or risk neutral do interest rates on corporate debt reflect default probabilities. To the extent that the firm's entire financial structure is traded, a bias in credit spreads introduces an exploitable arbitrage opportunity. Re-establishing no-arbitrage, firm dynamics move in the opposite direction to Cooley and Quadrini's.     

Altruism,Liquidity Constraint,and Investment in Education

In Japan and other East Asian societies, household educational expenditures per child (especially private tutoring expenditures) have increased sharply, perhaps to an excessive degree. This paper suggests a rationale for many families to invest extensively in education, whereas other relevant literature rarely addresses the possibility of excessive educational investment. Introducing altruism and liquidity constraints into a model in which parent and child interact for determining investment in the child's education, we show that educational investment may be excessive unless the family is profoundly liquidity‐constrained. Our result extends previous findings incorporating the Samaritan's Dilemma. We also discuss public policy designed to remedy the inefficiency in educational investment.     

Investment under Uncertainty, Debt and Taxes

It is common practice in financial derivative valuation to use a discount factor based on the riskless debt rate. But, to what extent is this discount factor appropriate for cash flows emerging in capital budgeting? To answer this question, we introduce a framework for real asset valuation that considers both personal and corporate taxation. We first discuss broad circumstances under which personal taxes do not affect valuation. We show that the appropriate discount rate for equity‐financed flows in a risk‐neutral setting is an equity rate that differs from the riskless debt rate by a tax wedge due to the presence of personal taxation. We extend this result to the valuation of the interest tax shield for exogenous debt policy with default risk. Interest tax shields, which accrue at a net rate corresponding to the difference between the corporate tax rate and a tax rate related to the personal tax rates, can have either positive or negative values. We also provide an illustrative real options application of our valuation approach to the case of an option to delay investment in a project, showing that the application of Black and Scholes formula may be incorrect in presence of personal taxes.     

债务融资、成长性与企业投资行为——对A股和香港上市公司的比较研究

本文以A股和香港上市公司为研究对象,考察债务融资和成长性对企业投资行为的影响。实证结果表明,企业债务与投资支出显著负相关,在低成长性公司中这一关系尤为显著。在低成长性公司中,A股上市公司的债务融资与投资支出的负相关关系比香港上市公司显著,香港中资上市公司的债务融资与投资支出的负相关关系比香港本地上市公司显著。     

Foreign Debt,Foreign Direct Investment and Volatility

We investigate how foreign debt and foreign direct investment (FDI) affect the growth and welfare of a stochastically growing small open economy. First, we find that foreign debt influences the growth of domestic wealth by lowering the cost of capital, while FDI affects the country's welfare by providing an additional source of permanent income. Second, a decline in domestic investment may improve domestic welfare as FDI replaces the gap. Even when the welfare deteriorates, its magnitude is mitigated, leaving more room for discretionary fiscal policy. Third, a fiscal policy aimed to stabilize domestic output fluctuations needs to be conducted not to crowd out the welfare benefit of FDI too much. Fourth, an economy with both types of foreign capital experiences wider welfare swings by external volatility shocks than the one with foreign debt alone, while the welfare effects from domestic volatility shocks are mitigated. The welfare effects of fiscal shocks are much smaller with both types of foreign capital. Lastly, the first-best labor income tax covers the government absorption by the labor's share of total output, and the capital income tax covers the rest. Investment is penalized or subsidized depending on the social marginal cost-gain differential.     

Liquidity Constraints and Investment in Transition Economies

We use Bulgarian firm-level data to investigate the impact of liquidity constraints on investment performance. Internal funds are an important determinant of investment in most industrialized countries. We test whether internal funds are important for firm investment during the current transition process in Bulgaria. We use a simple accelerator model of investment to test whether liquidity constraints are relevant in the case of Bulgaria. Our estimations are based on data for the period 1993–95, prior to the Bulgarian financial crisis in 1996–97. It turns out that Bulgarian firms are liquidity constrained, and that firms' size and financial structure help to distinguish between firms that are more and less liquidity constrained. In our view, liquidity constraints can be given a different interpretation in the case of transition economies as compared to Western economies. A more in depth analysis of the data reveals that liquidity constraints, and consequently the access to external funds for Bulgarian firm investment, are to be seen against the background of soft-budget constraints and the failure of the financial system to enforce an efficient allocation of funds. In our view, the lack of liquidity constraints may actually be seen as a sign of financial weakness in the case of Bulgaria.     

Investment Cycles and Sovereign Debt Overhang

We characterize optimal taxation of foreign capital and optimal sovereign debt policy in a small open economy where the government cannot commit to policy, seeks to insure a risk-averse domestic constituency, and is more impatient than the market. Optimal policy generates long-run cycles in both sovereign debt and foreign direct investment in an environment in which the first best capital stock is a constant. The expected tax on capital endogenously varies with the state of the economy, and investment is distorted by more in recessions than in booms, amplifying the effect of shocks. The government's lack of commitment induces a negative correlation between investment and the stock of government debt, a "debt overhang" effect. Debt relief is never Pareto improving and cannot affect the long-run level of investment. Furthermore, restricting the government to a balanced budget can eliminate the cyclical distortion of investment.     

流动性、流动性资产和流动性过剩

本文厘正了若干流动性过剩认识误区,阐释了流动性、流动性资产和流动性过剩的本质与定义,测算了近年来中国流动性过剩的规模和程度.得出了近年来中国流动性过剩并不严重、流动性过剩与经济过热之间不存在因果关系,以及2007年和2008年上半年中国宏观经济调控政策取向值得反思等若干结论.     

对我国风险投资的思考

分析了风险投资的特征,指出了我国目前风险投资存在的问题,探讨了发展我国风险投资的对策。     

管理层权力制衡强度、债务约束与企业创新投资

企业创新是国家经济可持续增长的关键,受到管理层意愿的影响,因而需要对内部经营者的权力进行制衡。以2010-2018年我国A股上市公司为研究样本,实证检验管理层权力制衡强度对企业创新投资的影响,以及不同债务约束情境下高商业信用配置、高负债水平的调节效应,此外,还考察了产权性质的差异化影响。研究表明,管理层权力制衡强度越大,企业创新投资水平越高;高商业信用强化了该促进作用,而高负债水平弱化了该促进作用。进一步研究发现,管理层权力制衡强度与企业创新投资的关系在民企中更显著;国企能够更好地获得和运用商业信用,使其高商业信用对该关系的强化效应更显著;民企具有更强的债务约束,其高负债水平对该关系的弱化效应更明显。     

负债融资、负债来源与企业投资行为——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

本文以我国上市公司为研究对象,考察负债融资及负债来源对企业投资行为的影响,从而揭示我国上市公司中股东-债权人冲突和负债作为治理机制所带来的经济后果。实证结果表明,负债比例越高的企业,企业投资规模越小,且两者之间的相关程度受新增投资项目风险与投资新项目前企业风险大小关系的影响———低项目风险企业比高项目风险企业,投资额随负债比例上升而下降得更快。此外,本项研究还发现,不同来源负债对企业投资规模的影响程度不尽相同。     

基于可流动性资产负债表的我国政府债务风险研究

政府资产是政府债务顺利偿还的基础,当政府资产低于其负债时,政府债务将面临一定风险,因此基于政府资产负债的视角,本文结合中国实际首先编制了一个简化的政府"可流动性资产"负债表,然后,分析了1998—2008年我国政府仅考虑直接债务时的政府债务风险,并且对2009—2010年的政府债务风险进行了分析。研究表明,2003—2006年因外汇储备急剧增长使我国政府债务风险总体较小且比较稳定,但因金融危机的爆发,我国政府债务风险在此期间前后的两次金融危机中都比较大,金融危机对政府债务风险的影响显著。研究还表明,积极的财政政策对短期降低政府债务风险具有明显效果,且1997年亚洲金融危机和2007年美国次贷危机对我国政府债务风险的影响具有相似性,即金融危机爆发后的几年内政府债务风险会因积极的财政政策而经历"大—小—大"的变化过程。最后,通过引入政府或有债务,分析了具有或有债务时的政府债务风险。本文认为,只要我国政府的或有债务规模不超过24万亿元人民币,则我国的政府债务风险较小。     

运用国债抑制流动性过剩的可行性分析

近几年,随着我国对美国、香港、欧盟三大主要贸易伙伴贸易顺差的不断扩大,外汇储备增长迅速,已经达到1.8万多亿美元。贸易顺差短期迅速扩张是一把双刃剑:一方面使外汇储备大幅攀升,另一方面造成流动性过剩。抑制流动性过剩是宏观经济运行中存在的主要问题。中央银行频频出击,不断加息,并多次提高存款准备金率,但流动性过剩问题仍没有得到解决。文章对在运用货币政策拟制流动性过剩几乎无效的情况下,对运用国债拟制流动性过剩的可行性进行了分析。     

加快我国科技风险投资业发展的战略思考

风险投资是一项伴随高风险,高收益的科学投资行为。本文在分析我国风险投资业发展现状的基础上,详细阐明我国风险投资存在的发展误区,提出了加快科技风险投资业的具体战略对策。     

高技术风险投资发展模式的选择

资金缺乏制约了我国高新技术产业化的发展。建立科技风险投资机制是当务之急。分析了风险投资的组织模式,并对我国发展风险投资提出了几点建议。     

量化宽松货币政策下美国的消费投资与全球流动性泛滥

美联储试图通过量化宽松货币政策的实施刺激国内私人部门消费和投资的增长。研究表明,由于美国经济的问题不是流动性短缺,因此,量化宽松货币政策不仅没有带来美国经济的复苏反而带来全球美元流动性泛滥,强化了全球经济运行的不稳定性和不确定性。作为国际货币的主要发行国,美国应该放弃这种与邻为壑的量化宽松货币政策,以保持全球经济和金融的稳定。